CPM -100: Principles of Project Management

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1 CPM -100: Principles of Project Management Lesson E: Risk and Procurement Management Presented by Sam Lane Ph: Presented at the IPM 2002 Fall Conference Prepared by the Washington, D.C. Chapter of PMI

2 Five Process Groups Initiating Controlling Executing Closing 2

3 Initiating Processes Scope 5.1 Initiation CORE PROCESSES (none) FACILITATING PROCESSES PMBOK P32 3

4 Processes CORE PROCESSES Scope 5.2 Scope Scope 5.3 Scope Definition 6.1 Activity Definition FACILITATING PROCESSES Quality Time Time 6.2 Cost 7.1 Resource Human Res. Activity Sequencing Time 6.3 Activity Duration Estimating Cost 7.2 Cost Estimating Human Res. Time 6.4 Schedule Development Risk 11.1 Risk Mgmt. Procurement Cost 7.3 Cost Budgeting Integration 4.1 Project Plan Development Procurement 8.1 Quality 9.1 Org l 9.2 Staff Acquisition 12.1 Procurement 12.2 Solicitation Communication Risk Risk Risk Risk 10.1 Comm 11.2 Risk Identification 11.3 Qualitative Risk Analysis 11.4 Quantitative Risk Analysis 11.5 Risk Response PMBOK P33 4

5 Executing Processes CORE PROCESSES Integration 4.2 Project Plan Execution FACILITATING PROCESSES Quality 8.2 Quality Assurance Human Resource 9.3 Team Development Communications 10.2 Info. Distribution Procurement 12.3 Solicitation Procurement 12.4 Source Selection Procurement 12.5 Contract Admin. PMBOK P35 5

6 Controlling Processes CORE PROCESSES Communications 10.3 Performance Reporting Integration 4.3 Integrated Change Control FACILITATING PROCESSES Scope 5.4 Scope Verification Scope 5.5 Scope Change Control Time 6.5 Schedule Control Cost 7.4 Cost Control Quality 8.3 Quality Control Risk 11.6 Risk Monitoring & Control PMBOK P36 6

7 Closing Processes CORE PROCESSES Procurement 12.6 Contract Close-Out Communications 10.4 Administrative Closure PMBOK P37 7

8 Processes 5.2 Scope 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Duration Estim. 6.4 Schedule Devel. CORE PROCESSES 7.3 Cost Budgeting Risk Management 5.3 Scope Definition 7.1 Resource 7.2 Cost Estim Risk Mgmt 4.1 Proj Plan Devel. 1. Risk Management Plan FACILITATING PROCESSES 8.1 Quality 9.1 Org l 9.2 Staff Acquis n 12.1 Procure 12.2 Solicit Comm 11.2 Risk Ident Qualit. Risk Analysis 11.4 Quantit. Risk Analysis 11.5 Risk Response PMBOK P127 8

9 Risk Management Risk = an uncertain condition or event that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project objective. Every risk has a cause and a potential consequence. Risks are both known and unknown. Risk management is continuous throughout the project. 9

10 RISK FACTORS All project risks are characterized by the following Three risk factors Risk event: what could go wrong Risk probability: how likely the event is to occur Risk severity: the amount at stake Risk exposure of a given risk event can be determined by: Expected monetary value = risk probability x amount at stake 10

11 Risk Management Inputs 1. Project Charter 2. Organization s Risk Management Policies 3. Defined Roles & Responsibilities 4. Stakeholder Risk Tolerances 5. Template for the Organization's Risk Management Plan 6. WBS Tools & Techniques 1. Meetings Outputs 1. Risk Management Plan PMBOK P129 11

12 Include in Risk Management Plan Methodology Roles& responsibilities Budgeting Timing Scoring& interpretation Thresholds Reporting formats Tracking 12

13 Processes 5.2 Scope 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Duration Estim. 6.4 Schedule Devel. CORE PROCESSES 7.3 Cost Budgeting Risk Identification 5.3 Scope Definition 7.1 Resource 7.2 Cost Estim Risk Mgmt 4.1 Proj Plan Devel. 1. Risks 2. Triggers FACILITATING PROCESSES 8.1 Quality 9.1 Org l 9.2 Staff Acquis n 12.1 Procure 12.2 Solicit. 3. Inputs to Other Processes 10.1 Comm 11.2 Risk Ident Qualit. Risk Analysis 11.4 Quantit. Risk Analysis 11.5 Risk Response PMBOK P114 13

14 Risk Identification Inputs 1.Risk Management Plan 2. Project Outputs 3. Risk Categories 4. Historical Information Tools & Techniques 1. Documentation Reviews 2. Information gathering techniques 3. Checklists 4. Assumptions analysis 5. Diagramming techniques 1. Sources of Risk 2. Potential Risk Events 3. Risk Symptoms 4. Inputs to Other Processes PMBOK P131 Outputs 14

15 Risk Identification - Tools & Techniques Information Gathering Techniques Brainstorming Delphi technique Interviewing SWOT analysis 15

16 Processes 5.2 Scope 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Duration Estim. 6.4 Schedule Devel. CORE PROCESSES 7.3 Cost Budgeting Qualitative Risk Analysis 5.3 Scope Definition FACILITATING PROCESSES 8.1 Quality 7.1 Resource 9.1 Org l 7.2 Cost Estim. 9.2 Staff Acquis n 11.1 Risk Mgmt 12.1 Procure 4.1 Proj Plan Devel Solicit. 1. Overall project risk ranking 2. List of prioritized risks 3. List of risks for additional analysis and management 10.1 Comm 11.2 Risk Ident Qualit. Risk Analysis 11.4 Quantit. Risk Analysis 11.5 Risk Response 4. Trends in qualitative risk analysis results PMBOK P133 16

17 Qualitative Risk Analysis Encourages free expression Allows opinions to be expressed Uses skills of common sense Good for capturing knowledge of non-experts Good when there is a great deal of uncertainty 17

18 Qualitative Risk Analysis - Outputs Overall risk ranking for the project List of prioritized risks List of risks for additional analysis and management Trends in qualitative risk analysis results 18

19 Qualitative Risk Analysis Inputs 1. Risk Management Plan 2. Identified risks 3. Project status 4. Project type 5. Data precision 6. Scales of probability and impact 7. Assumptions Tools & Techniques 1. Risk probability and impact 2. Probability/ impact risk rating matrix 3. Project assumptions testing 4. Data precision ranking Outputs 1. Overall project risk ranking 2. List of prioritized risks 3. List of risks for additional analysis and management 4. Trends in qualitative risk analysis results 19

20 Qualitative Risk Analysis - Tools & Techniques Risk probability and impact Probability/impact risk rating matrix Project assumptions testing Data precision ranking 20

21 Probability/impact Risk Rating Matrix - Ordinal R I s k P r o b a b I l I t y Ordinal scales are subjective, rank- ordered values (critical, high, moderate, low) (red- blue-yellow yellow-green) Risk Impact 21 21

22 Probability/impact Risk Rating Matrix - Cardinal R I S K P R O B A B I L I T Y Cardinal scales are objective, assign numeric values, can be linear or non- linear RISK IMPACT 22 22

23 Processes 5.2 Scope 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Duration Estim. 6.4 Schedule Devel. CORE PROCESSES 7.3 Cost Budgeting Quantitative Risk Analysis 5.3 Scope Definition 7.1 Resource FACILITATING PROCESSES 8.1 Quality 10.1 Comm 9.1 Org l 11.2 Risk Ident. 7.2 Cost Estim. 9.2 Staff Acquis n 11.3 Qualit. Risk Analysis 11.1 Risk Mgmt 12.1 Procure 11.4 Quantit. Risk Analysis 4.1 Proj Plan Devel Solicit Risk Response 1. Prioritized list of quantified risks 2. Probabilistic analysis of the project 3. Probability of achieving the cost and time objectives 4. Trends in quantitative risk analysis results PMBOK P137 23

24 Quantitative Risk Analysis Inputs 1. Risk Management Plan 2. Identified risks 3. List of prioritized risks 4. List of risks for additional analysis and management 5. Historical information 6. Exert judgment 7. Other planning outputs Tools & Techniques 1. Interviewing 2. Sensitivity analysis 3. Decision tree analysis 4. Simulation Outputs 1. Prioritized list of quantified risks 2. Probabilistic analysis of the project 3. Probability of achieving the cost and time objectives 4. Trends in quantitative risk analysis results 24

25 Interviewing and Sensitivity Analysis Interviewing Used to gather numerical data on uncertainty ranges WBS elements, activities, etc. Obtain information on probability distribution critical values, for example: Low, most likely, and high for triangle distribution Mean and standard deviation for normal distribution Sensitivity Analysis Examines which uncertainties have the greatest impact on the project 25

26 DECISION TREE ANALYSIS Probability 0.6 SUCCESS= 0.30 X Outcome $200,000 Expected Monetary Value = $60,000 PROJECT A FAILURE = 0.20 X $50,000 = $10,000 START 0.5 PROJECT B 0.7 SUCCESS= 0.35 X $100,000 = $35, FAILURE = 0.15 X $70,000 = $10,

27 SIMPLE PROBABILITY SIMPLE PROBABILITY EQUATION: Pr (Event #1) x Pr (Event #2) = Pr (Both Events) P(t) = P(A) * P(B) OR 0.70 X 0.80 = 0.56 OR 56% NOTE: THIS APPLIES TO INDEPENDENT EVENTS ONLY 27

28 Simulation - Monte Carlo P r o b a b i l i t y Base Cost (0% Confidence) Add Up Cost Expected Cost (50% Confidence) 90% Confidence Cost (90%Confidence) Note: There is still a 10% chance that the cost of the project will exceed this amount Range of Project Cost Cost $ 28

29 Processes 5.2 Scope 5.3 Scope Definition FACILITATING PROCESSES 8.1 Quality 10.1 Comm 6.1 Activity Definition 7.1 Resource 9.1 Org l 11.2 Risk Ident. 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Duration Estim. 7.2 Cost Estim. 9.2 Staff Acquis n 11.3 Qualit. Risk Analysis 6.4 Schedule Devel Risk Mgmt 12.1 Procure 11.4 Quantit. Risk Analysis CORE PROCESSES 7.3 Cost Budgeting 4.1 Proj Plan Devel Solicit Risk Response Risk Response 1. Risk Response Plan 2. Residual Risks 3. Secondary Risks 4. Contractual Agreements 5. Contingency Reserve Amounts Needed 6. Inputs to Other Processes 7. Inputs to a Revised Project Plan PMBOK P140 29

30 Risk Response Inputs 1. * Next slide Tools & Techniques 1. Avoidance 2. Transference 3. Mitigation 4. Acceptance PMBOK P140 Outputs 1. Risk Response Plan 2. Residual Risks 3. Secondary Risks 4. Contractual Agreements 5. Contingency Reserve Amounts Needed 6. Inputs to Other Processes 7. Inputs to a Revised Project Plan 30

31 Risk Response Inputs 1. Risk Management Plan 2. List of prioritized risks 3. Risk ranking of the project 4. Prioritized list of quantified risks 5. Probabilistic analysis of the project 6. Probability of achieving cost and time objectives 7. List of potential responses 8. Risk thresholds 9. Risk owners 10. Common risk causes 11. Trends in qualitative and quantitative risk analysis results 31

32 Risk Response Tools & Techniques Avoidance-eliminating a specific risk, usually by changing the project plan Transference-shift the ownership and consequences to a third party Mitigation - reducing the probability of occurrence, reducing the consequences, or both Acceptance - accepting the risk. Contingency Plan, Contingency Allowance Fallback Plan PMBOK P142 32

33 Risk Response - Outputs (1) Risk Response Plan Risks, cause, impact Risk owners, other responsibilities Quantitative and qualitative analysis results Risk response strategy selected: Avoidance Transference Mitigation Acceptance Response action plan(s) Budget & schedule Residual risks 33

34 Risk Response - Outputs (2) Residual Risks Secondary Risks Contractual Agreements Contingency Reserve Amounts Needed Inputs to Other Processes Inputs to a Revised Project Plan 34

35 Controlling Processes 10.3 Performance Reporting FACILITATING PROCESSES Scope Scope Verif. Change Control 7.4 Cost Control 8.3 Quality Control 4.3 Integrated Change Control 6.5 Sched. Control 11.6 Risk Monitor & Control Risk Monitoring & Control 1. Workaround Plans 2. Corrective Action 3. Project Change Requests 4. Updates to the Risk Response Plan 5. Risk Database 6. Updates to Risk Identification Checklists PMBOK P144 35

36 Risk Monitoring & Control Inputs 1. Risk Management Plan 2. Risk Response Plan 3. Project Communication 4. Additional Risk Identification and Analysis 5. Scope Changes Tools & Techniques 1. Project Risk Response Audits 2. Periodic Project Risk Reviews 3. Earned Value Analysis 4. Technical Performance Measurement 5. Additional Risk Outputs 1. Workaround Plans 2. Corrective Action 3. Project Change Requests 4. Updates to the Risk Response Plan 5. Risk Database 6. Updates to Risk Identification Checklists PMBOK P144 36

37 Project Procurement Procurement Goals Acquire the right things, in the right quantities, at the right price, at the right time, at the right quality, and on the right terms. Implement make or buy decisions. Provide alternatives to resource constraints. Administer the sub-contracts to fulfill expectations. A key risk management tool Risk transfer/deflection Assumes the contractor s best efforts at all times. 37

38 Definitions Contract: Mutually binding agreement obligating Seller to provide specified products and buyer to pay. Contract Administration: Managing the relationship with Seller. Contract Closeout: Completion, settlement, and resolution of all outstanding items. 38

39 Definitions Baseline: The Original Plan plus or minus Approved Changes. Change Control Board (CCB): A formally chartered group of stakeholders responsible for deciding on changes to the Project Baseline. 39

40 Definitions Deliverable: ANY measurable, tangible, verifiable outcome, result, or item that MUST BE produced to complete a contract. (Includes but not limited to: Products, services and documentation required and accepted by Buyer. Explicit or implied warranty.) 40

41 Definitions Fixed price or lump sum contract: A fixed price for a well defined product. May include incentives. Cost reimbursable contract: payment for actual (allowable) costs and defined fee. May also include incentives. Unit price contract: a.k.a. Time & Materials contracts. Paid a preset amount per unit of goods or service. 41

42 Definitions FFP: Firm fixed price (highest risk to the contractor) FPIF: Fixed price, incentive fee. CPFF: Cost plus fixed fee. (Highest risk to the buyer) CPIF: Cost plus incentive fee. (Includes award fee and performance-based fee contracts) 42

43 Definitions Level Of Effort (Time and Materials) Support-type activity that does not readily lend itself to measurement of discrete accomplishment. Characteristics: Uniform Rate of Activity over specific period of time. Independent Estimates: Buyer s independent estimate of costs that are used to assess reasonableness of contractor proposals. 43

44 Definitions RFP: Request for proposal. Request for price and a proposed method of meeting requirements. Often used when both price and technical evaluation determines winners. RFQ/IFB: Request for Quote/Invitation for Bid. Usually for materials or services where contract award is price driven. 44

45 Definitions Warranty Implied Warranty (UCC provisions) The mere act of sale implies (1) general fitness for use & (2) fitness for special uses that the user intends if the seller knows of these special conditions. Express Warranty Beyond the mere act of the sale, the seller makes specific representation (oral, ads, literature, specs, markings, time, etc.) 45

46 Definitions Guarantees Implied Guarantee (UCC provisions) Involves the merchantability of fitness of use of the final good or service. Express Guarantee Involves an actual promise regarding the level of performance for a contracted good or service. 46

47 Processes 5.2 Scope 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Duration Estim. 6.4 Schedule Devel. CORE PROCESSES 7.3 Cost Budgeting Procurement 5.3 Scope Definition 7.1 Resource FACILITATING PROCESSES 8.1 Quality 9.1 Org l 7.2 Cost Estim. 9.2 Staff Acquis n 11.1 Risk Mgmt 12.1 Procure 4.1 Proj Plan Devel Solicit. 1. Procurement Management Plan 2. Statement(s) of Work 10.1 Comm 11.2 Risk Ident Qualit. Risk Analysis 11.4 Quantit. Risk Analysis 11.5 Risk Response PMBOK P149 47

48 Procurement Inputs 1. Scope Statement 2. Product Description 3. Procurement Resources 4. Market Conditions 5. Other Outputs 6. Constraints 7. Assumptions Tools & Techniques 1. Make-or-Buy Analysis 2. Expert Judgment 3. Contract Type Selection Outputs 1. Procurement Management Plan 2. Statement(s) of Work PMBOK P149 48

49 Procurement Procurement Mgt. Plan How Procurement Processes will be managed Type of Contract Roles and Responsibilities Standard Documentation Statement of Work A Narrative Description of Products or Services to be supplied under the contract In some contexts, may refer to a Type of Contract (a Task Order contract) Defines WHAT not How or Who 49

50 Types of Contracts Three Basic Types: Fixed Price or Lump Sum (FFP, FPIF) Cost Reimbursable (CPFF, CPIF, CPAF,CPPC) Unit Price (Time and Materials) Other Contracting Documents Memorandum of Understanding Purchase Orders Letter Contract 50

51 Contract Elements The following are the elements of a legally-binding contract: Offer Acceptance Consideration Legality of purpose 51

52 Tools and Techniques 1. Make or Buy Analysis Make Cost Integration of Operations Idle and Existing Capacity Direct Control Design Secrecy Stabilize Work Force Buy Cost Supplier Skill Set Small Volume Requirement Limited Capacity Augment Labor Force Maintenance of Multiple Sources Indirect Control 52

53 Tools and Techniques 3. Contract Type Selection Three Basic Types: Fixed Price or Lump Sum (FP, FPIF) Cost Reimbursable (CPFF, CPIF) Unit Price (Cost/Price Schedule) Other Names for Contracts Memorandum of Understanding Purchase Orders 53

54 Processes 5.2 Scope 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Duration Estim. 6.4 Schedule Devel. CORE PROCESSES 7.3 Cost Budgeting Solicitation 5.3 Scope Definition 7.1 Resource 7.2 Cost Estim Risk Mgmt 4.1 Proj Plan Devel. 1. Procurement Documents 2. Evaluation Criteria FACILITATING PROCESSES 8.1 Quality 9.1 Org l 9.2 Staff Acquis n 12.1 Procure 12.2 Solicit. 3. Statement of Work Updates 10.1 Comm 11.2 Risk Ident Qualit. Risk Analysis 11.4 Quantit. Risk Analysis 11.5 Risk Response PMBOK P152 54

55 Solicitation Inputs 1. Procurement Management Plan 2. Statement(s) of Work 3. Other Outputs Tools & Techniques 1. Standard Forms 2. Expert Judgment Outputs 1. Procurement Documents 2. Evaluation Criteria 3. Statement of Work Updates 55

56 Executing Processes 4.2 Project Plan Execution Solicitation 1. Proposals FACILITATING PROCESSES 8.2 Quality Assur. 9.3 Team Devel Info. Distrib Solicit n 12.4 Source Select n 12.5 Contract Admin. PMBOK P153 56

57 Solicitation Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs 1. Procurement Documents 2. Qualified Seller Lists 1. Bidders Conferences 2. Advertising 1. Proposals PMBOK P153 57

58 Solicitations Request for Quotation (RFQ) Request for Proposal (RFP) Request for Information (RFI) Request for Clarification (RFC) Invitation for Bid (IFB) Invitation for Quote (IFQ) 58

59 Executing Processes 4.2 Project Plan Execution Source Selection 1. Contract FACILITATING PROCESSES 8.2 Quality Assur. 9.3 Team Devel Info. Distrib Solicit n 12.4 Source Select n 12.5 Contract Admin. PMBOK P155 59

60 Source Selection Inputs 1. Proposals 2. Evaluation Criteria 3. Organizational Policies Tools & Techniques 1. Contract Negotiation 2. Weighting System 3. Screening System 4. Independent Estimates Outputs 1. Contract PMBOK P155 60

61 Contracts Must include these factors: Competent Parties. Good faith. An Offer. An Acceptance. Agreement (meeting of minds) Consideration (bargain for exchange) 61

62 Should-cost Estimates Buyer s INDEPENDENT ESTIMATE of cost of product or service Developed to determine reasonableness of sellers proposed costs May be an indication of an inadequate, or misunderstood, SOW PMBOK P156 62

63 Executing Processes 4.2 Project Plan Execution FACILITATING PROCESSES 8.2 Quality Assur. 9.3 Team Devel Info. Distrib Contract Administration 1. Correspondence 2. Contract Changes 3. Payment Requests 12.3 Solicit n 12.4 Source Select n 12.5 Contract Admin. PMBOK P156 63

64 Contract Administration Inputs 1. Contract 2. Work Results 3. Change Requests 4. Seller Invoices Tools & Techniques 1. Contract Change Control System 2. Performance Reporting 3. Payment System Outputs 1. Correspondence 2. Contract Changes 3. Payment Requests PMBOK P156 64

65 CONTRACT TYPE vs. RISK SCOPE OF WORK INFORMATION VERY LITTLE PARTIAL COMPLETE UNCERTAINTY HIGH MODERATE LOW DEGREE OF RISK HIGH MEDIUM LOW SUGGESTED RISK ALLOCATION 100% 0% AGENCY (BUYER) SELLER (CONTRACTOR) 0% 100% CONTRACT TYPES CPPC CPFF CPIF FPIF FFP 65

66 Closing Processes 12.6 Contract Close-Out 10.4 Administrative Closure Contract Close-Out 1. Contract File 2. Formal Acceptance and Closure PMBOK P158 66

67 Contract Close-Out Inputs 1. Contract Documentation Tools & Techniques 1. Procurement Audits Outputs 1. Contract File 2. Formal Acceptance and Closure PMBOK P159 67

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