WEST LOTHIAN LABOUR MARKET PROFILE Lothian Labour Market Unit

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1 WEST LOTHIAN LABOUR MARKET PROFILE Labour Market Unit Introduction This report provides a labour market profile for the West area. Similar profiles are available for the other councils in the region. They offer a consistent overview of local labour market conditions in West. Most of the content is based upon official information sources. KEY STATISTICS Economic output: GVA was estimated at 2,173 million in Forecasts indicate growth of 14.1% between 2004 and 2007, in contrast to growth of 10.7% for Edinburgh and and 7.2% for Scotland. Population: estimated at 162,845 in 2004, an increase of 2.6% since the 2001 Census. Projections for the period 2004 to 2014 indicate an increase of 9.1% (14,882) the fastest growth of any council area in Scotland. Working age population: estimated at 104,502 in Projections suggest growth of 8.5% (8,871) between 2004 and to reach 113,373. Employment rate: the proportion of working-age residents in employment is high and estimated at 79% in similar to the rate for Edinburgh and (77%) but above the Scottish rate (74%). Workforce employment: the number of filled jobs in West stands at around 71,650 - a decrease of 1.7% (-1,230) since 2001, in contrast to growth of 1.1% for Edinburgh and. However, forecasts predict that the number of jobs will increase by around 4.4% (3,120) over the next 3 years well above the forecast for Scotland (0.4%). Top 5 sectors for employment: Manufacturing (16%), the Public Sector (14%), Business Services (11%), Retailing (11%) and Wholesaling (10%). Employment growth: forecasts suggest that he largest absolute increases in employment are predicted for the Wholesaling (+670) and Hotels and Catering (+650) sectors. Claimant count unemployment: was 2.3% at July The claimant count unemployment rate has improved steadily over recent years to the extent that it is now the lowest for over a decade. Economic inactivity: an estimated 17% or 17,000 of the working-age population are considered economically inactive below the rate Scotland (21%) Average weekly wage (2003): at workplaces was on a par with the Scottish average ( 366) and 94% of the average weekly wage in Edinburgh and ( 391). Qualifications: the working-age population of West is becoming steadily more qualified. In 2002, 26% held NVQ4 (HND, Degree) level qualifications, an increase of 7% since ECONOMIC OVERVIEW The indicator for economic activity at the local area level is GVA (Gross Value Added) 1, which is an indicator of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). In 2004, West is estimated to have a GVA of 2,173 million, accounting for 18% of Edinburgh and s GVA. The forecasts shown by Figure 1 suggest that GVA will expand by 2.8% in 2004 after contracting by -0.4% in Over the next 3 years, growth will peak at 5.2% before falling back to around 4%. The buoyant forecast highlights the adaptability of the West economy following the downturn in the global demand for electronic goods and components. Between 2004 and 2007, forecasts suggest GVA will increase by 14.1% (to reach 2,478 million) compared to growth of 7.2% for Scotland and 10.7% for Edinburgh and as a whole. % Figure 1: Annual change in GVA, West Edinburgh & Scotland Source: Experian Business Strategies, 2003 The most important sectors for GVA are Manufacturing 2 (30% - principally Electrical and Optical Equipment), Wholesaling (9%), the Public Sector (8%) and Transport and Communications (8%). The sectors contributing the most to growth over the next three years 1 GVA is a measure of the value of all goods and services produced in an area. GVA is a major component of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and is usually considered to be the best indicator of the amount of economic activity carried out by an industry in any one period. Care must be exercised when using GVA as a local indicator of wealth. GVA creation is concentrated where high value creating employment is prevalent. Thus cities and areas of high value manufacturing tend to have high GVA per head. 2 Manufacturing comprises the sectors of Engineering (including the sub-sector of Electrical and Optical Equipment) and Other Manufacturing. The Public Sector comprises Public Administration and Defence, Education and Health.

2 (Table 1 on next page) are predicted to be Engineering, Wholesaling and Business Services together accounting for 60% of growth, with Engineering alone accounting for 40%. Table 1: Projected change in GVA by sector GVA ( millions) Change % Change Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Mining & Utilities Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Engineering Other Manufacturing Construction Wholesaling Retailing Hotels & Catering Transport & Communications Banking & Insurance Other Financial & Business Services Business Services Public Admin. & Defence Education Health Other (largely private) Total GVA 2, , Source: Experian Business Strategies, 2003 POPULATION Levels and Change Population levels are important to the job market they may affect both the supply of labour and the demand for local services. The General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) estimates that the population of West is 162,850 in No other Council area in Scotland is growing as rapidly in population terms as West. Figure 2 shows that between the 2001 Census and 2004 the population increased by 2.7% (4,130). Over the same period the population of Edinburgh and increased by 0.8% to reach to reach 784,840, while Scotland s fell by -0.5% (-24,190). Over the next 10 years the population is projected to increase by 9.1% to reach 177,730 in 2014 accounting for over two fifths of the growth Edinburgh and s population. In contrast, by 2014, the population of the region as a whole is projected to increase by 4.3% to reach 818,950, while Scotland s population is projected to fall by -1.5% to reach 4,963, % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Figure 2: Population projections - total population 2.6% 0.8% -0.5% 9.1% 4.3% -1.5% Source: 2001 Census and 2002 Population Projections, General Register Office for Scotland, Crown Copyright Population by Age Group The working-age population is estimated at 104,500 equivalent to 64% of the total population and an increase of 2.7% (2,620) since the 2001 census, as shown in Figure 3. Over the next 10 years, the working-age population is projected to grow by 8.5% to reach 113,370 in For Edinburgh and as a whole, this population is projected to grow by 4.9% to reach 533,730 in 2014, while Scotland s will decline by -3.1% (100,000) to reach 3,048,170. GROS projections indicate that the working age population will continue growing throughout the next decade. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Figure 3: Population projetions - working-age population 2.7% 1.6% -0.1% 8.5% 4.9% -3.1% Source: 2001 Census and 2002 Population Projections, General Register Office for Scotland, Crown Copyright

3 The population projections, as shown in Table 2, indicate the aging of West s population. Despite this, West has a relatively youthful demographic profile compared to Scotland as a whole. The population aged 0-44 is projected to fall slightly (1,070 or -1%), while the population aged 45 and over will be the main driver of population growth increasing by 27% (15,950) between 2004 and The 2001 Census confirmed that net inward migration is the main driver of population growth, but there is also positive natural population change (excess births over deaths). According to the 2001 Census, which provides a snapshot of migration during the previous year, 9% of inward migration was from abroad, 19% from the UK outside Scotland and 72% from areas within Scotland. Table 2: Population projections by age group, Age Group change % change 0-4 9,960 9, % ,500 22,980-1, % ,070 31,020 3, % ,030 37,720-3, % ,570 40,120 7, % ,870 25,370 5, % 75+ 7,850 10,750 2, % Total 162, ,730 14, % Source: 2001 Census and 2002 Population Projections, General Register Office for Scotland, Crown Copyright The aging of the population is a common demographic trend, as shown by Figure 4. In the case of Scotland, the declines in the population aged 44 and under (particularly those aged and 5-15) are the main drivers of Scotland s falling population. Figure 4: Population projections by age group, % 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Total West -1.9% -6.2% 14.6% -8.1% 23.2% 27.7% 37.0% 9.1% Edinburgh & 0.1% -11.3% 6.1% -5.1% 14.2% 16.6% 13.8% 4.3% Scotland -6.8% -16.5% 1.1% -19.4% 9.0% 14.6% 17.5% -1.5% Source: 2001 Census and 2002 Population Projections, General Register Office for Scotland, Crown Copyright EMPLOYMENT The level of employment can be measured in two ways: By counting the number of employed persons resident in an area, irrespective of the location of their workplace, also know as resident employment ; or By counting the number of filled jobs located in any given area, otherwise known as workforce employment. The resident based measure is an indicator of prosperity or deprivation, while the workplace measure is a better indicator of local economic activity and economic change. The Employment Rate Resident (working-age) employment 3 in West was estimated at 84,000 in 2003, corresponding to an employment rate of 79% - above the employment rate for Scotland (74%) and similar to the rate for Edinburgh and (77%). There has been little change in the employment rate since Workforce employment in West is estimated at 71,650 in This represents a decrease of 1.7% since 2001, in contrast to growth of 1.1% and 1.2% for Edinburgh and and Scotland respectively. Industrial Structure Table 3 (on the next page) provides a breakdown of the industrial structure of the workforce. Manufacturing is the largest employer in West, accounting for 16% of total employment. The Public Sector is also very important accounting for 14% of filled jobs, while Business Services and Retailing each account for 11%. In contrast, Manufacturing accounts for only 9% of filled jobs in Scotland, while the Public Sector is substantially more important with 26% of employment. 3 The number of residents in employment is estimated from the Labour Force Survey.

4 Table 3: Percentage of total employment by sector, 2004 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 1.0% 0.9% 2.1% Mining & Utilities 0.2% 0.8% 1.7% Metals, Minerals & Chemicals 4.1% 1.7% 2.2% Engineering 9.8% 3.9% 3.4% Other Manufacturing 6.4% 4.2% 5.4% Construction 9.2% 5.4% 6.7% Wholesaling 10.3% 4.6% 4.9% Retailing 10.9% 9.6% 10.4% Hotels & Catering 7.7% 7.1% 7.4% Transport & Communications 5.7% 5.2% 5.9% Banking & Insurance 1.4% 8.7% 4.1% Other Financial & Business Services 1.7% 2.8% 1.95% Business Services 10.9% 15.2% 11.3% Public Admin. & Defence 3.3% 5.7% 6.5% Education 5.5% 8.6% 7.9% Health 5.3% 9.3% 11.6% Other (largely private) 6.7% 6.5% 6.3% Total employment (inc. self-employed) 71, ,770 2,525,850 Source: Experian Business Strategies, 2003 Forecasts suggest that workforce employment in West will grow by around 4.4% (3,120) over the next three years, as shown in Table 4. In terms of sectors, forecasts indicate that Wholesaling will have the largest absolute increase in jobs (+670), closely followed by Hotels and Catering (+650) and Other (largely private) Services (+600). In contrast, the forecasts suggest that Transport and Communications will have the largest absolute decline in employment (-170). West is much less dependent on part-time employment than Scotland as a whole - an estimated 28% of employees are part-time compared to 41% for Scotland. Table 4: Estimated change in workforce employment by sector in West Change % Change Wholesaling 7,410 8, % 9.0% Hotels & Catering 5,530 6, % 11.8% Other (largely private) 4,770 5, % 12.6% Business Services 7,790 8, % 5.5% Health 3,810 4, % 11.0% Retailing 7,780 8, % 5.0% Construction 6,590 6, % 3.2% Education 3,950 4, % 2.3% Engineering 7,029 7,075-3, % 0.7% Metals, Minerals & Chemicals 2,940 2, % 0.3% Banking & Insurance 990 1, % 1.0% Mining & Utilities % 0.0% Other Financial & Business Services 1,230 1, % -3.3% Public Admin. & Defence 2,370 2, % -2.1% Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing % -8.6% Other Manufacturing 4,580 4, % -1.7% Transport & Communications 4,080 3, % -4.2% Total (inc. self-employed) 71,650 74,770-1,230 3, % 4.4% Full-time employees 45,930 47, % 3.4% Part-time employees 17,760 18,860 2,000 1, % 6.2% Source: Experian Business Strategies, Numbers are rounded. The forecasts shown by Table 5 (on the next page) indicate that most sectors of West s service economy will do relatively well in creating jobs outperforming most of Scotland s service sector. However, the production sector (comprising manufacturing, construction, mining and agriculture) will continue to loose jobs. Overall, the forecasts suggest that total employment in West will increase by 4.4% - slightly above the forecasts for Edinburgh and (3.3%). Part-time employment will also become an increasingly common feature of West s employment base.

5 Table 5: Estimated percentage change in workforce employment West Edinburgh & Scotland West Edinburgh & Scotland Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing -16.7% -14.0% -6.2% -8.6% -10.0% -2.5% Mining & Utilities -47.8% -2.5% -2.5% 0.0% -8.9% -8.9% Metals, Minerals & Chemicals 2.1% 1.4% -4.6% 0.3% -4.0% -5.9% Engineering -32.2% -35.0% -18.3% 0.7% -0.3% -1.1% Other Manufacturing -4.4% -10.8% -5.2% -1.7% -11.1% -8.8% Construction 4.9% 1.7% 5.1% 3.2% 1.6% 1.4% Wholesaling 11.9% 2.2% -2.9% 9.0% 6.4% -1.0% Retailing 4.9% -1.3% 0.2% 5.0% 3.2% 0.4% Hotels & Catering 18.7% 16.0% 1.0% 11.8% 10.1% 3.5% Transport & Communications -9.1% -3.7% 4.7% -4.2% -3.4% -2.6% Banking & Insurance 7.6% 7.9% 5.4% 1.0% 2.8% -2.8% Other Financial & Business Services -0.8% 1.4% 7.1% -3.3% 1.0% -0.5% Business Services -0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 5.5% 4.4% 2.7% Public Admin. & Defence 7.2% 7.4% 7.0% -2.1% -1.9% -3.7% Education -0.3% 2.5% 5.2% 2.3% 1.1% -0.5% Health 7.0% 6.8% 4.5% 11.0% 9.8% 2.8% Other (largely private) 4.6% -0.9% 3.1% 12.6% 11.4% 13.0% Total (inc. self-employed) -1.7% 1.1% 1.2% 4.4% 3.3% 0.4% Full-time employees -2.0% 1.4% 1.0% 3.4% 2.2% 0.4% Part-time employees 11.9% 10.4% -1.6% 6.2% 5.2% -0.6% Source: Experian Business Strategies, Self Employment An estimated 11% (7,960) of the workforce in West are self-employed - similar to the self-employment rate for Scotland of 10%. The most important sector for self-employment is Construction with an estimated 37% (2,450) of the workforce in self-employed. Other sectors with a significant proportion in self-employment include Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (32%), Transport and Communications (19%) and Business Services (17%). Forecasts suggest that self-employment will grow by 5.8% (460) by 2007 to around 8,420. Jobs Density Jobs density is an indicator of labour demand but should be used in conjunction with other labour market indicators. It is defined as the number of filled jobs in an area (workforce employment) divided by the resident working-age population in that area. While areas with relatively high jobs densities clearly offer potential job opportunities for residents of the area, it may be the case that there is a mismatch between the type of jobs in an area and the skills of the people living there. The jobs density for West is 0.7 that is, just over half a job for every working-age resident. The figures for Edinburgh and and Scotland are 0.9 and 0.8 respectively. Comparing West s jobs density with the employment rate and low claimant count indicates that there is more labour supply than demand within the area, which results in a relatively high level of outward commuting. UNEMPLOYMENT Claimant Unemployment Recent changes in unemployment are represented in Table 6. In July 2004, the claimant count (the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance - JSA) in West was 2,389 consisting of 1,745 males and 644 females. The claimant count rate was 3.4% for males, 1.3% for females and 2.3% in total. From the peak in unemployment during 2002, there has been a steady improvement relative to other Council areas in the Edinburgh and region to the extent that the unemployment rate is now on a par with Edinburgh and the UK (2.3%). In fact, unemployment fell by 21% between July 2001 and July Over the same period, the picture of unemployment across Scotland has also been one of steady improvement falling by 13%. Table 6: Claimant Unemployment, Jul 2001 Jul 2004 Total Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Jul-01 3, % 11, % 108, % Jul-02 3, % 11, % 106, % Jul-03 2, % 12, % 105, % Jul-04 2, % 11, % 94, % Male Jul-01 2, % 9, % 82, % Jul-02 2, % 8, % 80, % Jul-03 2, % 9, % 79, % Jul-04 1, % 8, % 70, % Female Jul % 2, % 25, % Jul % 2, % 25, % Jul % 3, % 25, % Jul % 2, % 23, % Source: Claimant Count, Jobcentre Plus/Nomis. Claimants by Age and Duration The change in the level of claimant unemployment varies between different groups. Table 7 shows that between July 2001 and July 2004 the level of unemployment fell in every group apart from the number of claimants aged 50 and over, including long-term unemployment (claiming over 12 months) which dropped by 20%. The fall in the claimant count has been most significant during the first half of 2004 and contrasts to the mixed picture for Edinburgh

6 and as a whole as shown by Figure 5. The region has seen a fall in the number of claimants aged 18 to 49 and long-term unemployment but an increase in the number of claimants aged 17 and under, 50 and over and the group eligible for the New Deal for Young People programme. In contrast, the figures for Scotland show a drop in unemployment across all categories. Table 7: Unemployment by age and duration, July 2004 West Jul-04 Change: July Change: July Age Number % of total Number % Number % 17 and under 130 5% % % % % % ,210 51% % % % -30-8% 0 0% Aged 18-24, claiming for over 6 months (eligible for the New Deal for Young People programme) 95 4% % % Claiming for over 12 months % -10-4% % Claiming for over 6 months % % % Source: Claimant Count, Jobcentre Plus/Nomis. Due to disclosure control the numbers are rounded to the nearest five. Figure 5: Change in JSA claimants by age and duration, July July % 10% 0% The traditional measures of unemployment the claimant count and ILO unemployment 4 represent an incomplete picture of unemployment. Both measures exclude economically inactive groups who want to work and those on government training schemes such as New Deal. To illustrate the potential impact on unemployment figures of taking these factors into account, a study of hidden unemployment (undertaken by Sheffield Hallam University) estimated the real level of unemployment for Council areas for Jan 2002 (shown in Table 8). It would appear that unemployment at its worst is around four times higher than represented by the claimant count. Table 8: Estimate of real unemployment, Jan 2002 Estimate of real unemployment Claimant count rate Jan 2002 Jan 2002 Male Female Total Male Female Total West 4.2% 1.3% 2.7% 12.7% 10.4% 11.7% Edinburgh & 3.8% 1.1% 2.5% 10.6% 8.1% 9.5% Scotland 5.1% 1.5% 3.4% 15.1% 11.5% 13.5% Source: Centre for Regional and Social Research, Sheffield Hallam University, 2002 ECONOMIC INACTIVITY Economically inactive 5 people are those persons who are not actively engaged in the economy they are not employed nor seeking work. In strict terms, the economically inactive includes those not in employment, not classified as unemployed (by the ILO measure), or not either actively seeking work or available for work. The Labour Force Survey estimates the rate of economic inactivity of the working-age population and recent annual estimates are shown by Figure 6 6. In 2002, an estimated 17,000 or 17% of the working-age population in West were economically inactive. There appears to have been little change in the rate of economic inactivity in West and rates have remained below the Scottish average. % -10% -20% -30% -40% 17 & under , >6 months >12 months >6 months Total claimants West -10.3% -26.4% -21.7% 0.0% -36.7% -19.7% -19.4% -20.8% Edinburgh & 8.2% -4.1% -9.1% 6.3% 12.0% -13.6% -4.7% -5.8% Scotland -6.2% -8.7% -17.5% -5.5% -1.9% -29.1% -18.7% -13.1% Source: Claimant Count, Jobcentre Plus/Nomis. 4 The ILO (International Labour Organisation) definition of unemployment is the internationally agreed definition and is used by the UK. ILO unemployment is estimated from the Labour Force Survey but data is unavailable at smaller geographies due to the size of the sample. Under ILO guidelines, all people aged 16 and over can be classified into one of three states: in employment; ILO unemployment; or economically inactive. ILO unemployed people are: without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last 4 weeks and are available to start work in the next 2 weeks; or out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next 2 weeks. 5 Those who are out of work but do not meet the criteria of ILO unemployment are economically inactive. The economically inactive is a broad definition of what is a very disparate group of people, which include: non-working adults looking after family, students, the retired, the disabled, prisoners and other groups with multiple difficulties. 6 The estimates from the Labour Force Survey are subject to margins of error which increase with smaller populations.

7 % Figure 6: Economic inactivity rates, Source: Annual Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics Many of the economically inactive say they want to work and this is important in the context of the tight labour market experienced in Edinburgh and where they form a relatively substantial pool of potential workers. According to the Labour Force Survey, roughly one fifth of the economically inactive population want a job. This represents a pool of workers around 40% greater than the number of claimant unemployed. Within this group there will be varying degrees of labour market attachment and for some, it may only take a relatively small change in circumstances to look for work. SOCIAL EXCLUSION Benefits Dependency This indicator enables an understanding of the extent of social exclusion. This is a term to describe marginalisation from employment and income, and often includes the attendant issues of quality of life. Benefit dependency is the proportion of the working-age population claiming at least one of the key working-age benefits, which are: Income Support, Incapacity Benefit, Severe Disablement Allowance and Jobseekers Allowance. Table 9: Benefit dependency proportion of the working age population claiming key (working-age) benefits, Nov 1999 Nov 2003 Numbers % Numbers % % Nov-99 16, , Nov-00 16, , Nov-01 16, , Nov-02 16, , Nov-03 16, , Source: Department for Work and Pensions 21.3 The number of people claiming at least one key working-age benefit in West has changed little in recent years (1% increase since 1999). At November 2003, there were an estimated 16,420 persons of working-age in West claiming at least one of the key (working-age) benefits equivalent to 16% of the working-age population. The proportion of the working-age population in West dependent on key benefits is lower than the Scottish average but higher than the proportion Edinburgh and as a whole. Table 10 shows the composition of the population claiming one of the four key benefits. By far the largest group dependent on benefits are those unable to work or require Income Support due to sickness or disability accounting for around two thirds (67%) of claimants in West. Table 10: Working age claimants of key (working-age) benefits by statistical group, Nov 2003 Numbers % Numbers % % Unemployed 2,460 15% 11,140 16% 17% Sick & disabled 10,960 67% 45,620 66% 66% Lone parents 2,240 14% 9,180 13% 13% Other 760 5% 2,760 4% 4% Total 16,420 68,700 Source: Department for Work and Pensions EARNINGS The level of wages can be measured in two ways: By the average weekly wage of jobs located in any given area, otherwise known as workplace based earnings; or By the average weekly wage of employed persons resident in an area, irrespective of the location of their workplace, also known as resident based earnings. Average Wages In 2003, the average weekly wage at workplaces in West was 369 (Table 11 on the following page) - on a par with the Scottish average but only 94% of the average weekly wage at workplaces in Edinburgh and.

8 Table 11: Average gross weekly wage, (workplace based) West Edinburgh & Scotland United Kingdom % change 0.1% -1.5% 2.3% 2.2% Proportion of Scotland 101% 107% 100% 107% Proportion of UK 94% 99% 93% 100% Source: New Earnings Survey, Office for National Statistics/Nomis In contrast, Table 12 shows that the average weekly wage for residents of West was 356 in equivalent to 97% of the Scottish average and 92% of the Edinburgh and average. The average weekly wage for residents of West is lower than the average workplace wage because many people living in West are commuting to better paid jobs out-with their home area. Table 12: Average gross weekly wage, (resident based) West Edinburgh & Scotland United Kingdom % change -0.2% 1.7% 3.7% 2.2% Proportion of Scotland 97% 105% 100% 107% Proportion of UK 91% 98% 93% 100% Source: New Earnings Survey, Office for National Statistics/Nomis QUALIFICATIONS The qualification levels of residents are another key indicator of the economic performance of an area. Therefore, an appropriately qualified workforce is one of the factors that can help improve economic performance. The Labour Force Survey records the highest qualification held by each adult 7, as shown by Table 13. The results show that: 7 The highest qualifications held by the working-age population are grouped as follows: NVQ 4 equivalent and above: e.g. HND, Degree and Higher Degree level qualifications or equivalent NVQ 3 equivalent: e.g. 2 or more A levels, advanced GNVQ, NVQ 3, 2 or more higher or advanced higher national qualifications (Scotland) or equivalent. NVQ 2 equivalent: e.g. 5 or more GCSEs at grades A-C, intermediate GNVQ, NVQ 2, intermediate 2 national qualification (Scotland) or equivalent.. NVQ 1 equivalent: e.g. fewer than 5 GCSEs at grades A-C, foundation GNVQ, NVQ 1, intermediate 1 national qualification (Scotland) or equivalent. Other qualifications: includes foreign qualifications and some professional qualifications. The working-age population of West is becoming steadily more qualified. In 1999, only 17% held the highest level of qualifications (HND, degree or above). In 2002, this had increased to 26%, similar to the Scottish average of 28% but lower than the average for Edinburgh and (35%). The proportion of working-age residents in West with no educational qualifications was estimated at 14% in 2002, lower than the proportion for Scotland as a whole but unchanged since The high level of qualifications held by Edinburgh and residents is skewed by the dominance of the Edinburgh economy in requiring highly qualified workers to work in Financial Services and information and knowledge-based sectors of the economy. Table 13: Estimated proportion of working age population by qualification group West (numbers) West (%) Edinburgh & (%) Scotland (%) NVQ4 17,000 26, NVQ3 16,000 17, Trade apprenticeships 9,000 6, NVQ2 16,000 16, NVQ1 17,000 15, Other Qualifications 10,000 7, No Qualifications 14,000 14, Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics. # Sample size is too small for reliable estimates SCHOOL LEAVERS The decisions made by young people regarding employment, education or training after leaving school has long-lasting consequences for their futures and for the future of the economy as a whole. Recent changes in the destination of school leavers from publicly funded schools are shown in Table 14 (on the following page). Between 1998 and 2003, the proportion of school leavers from West entering full-time Higher Education has declined slightly from 26% to 24%. Over the same period, the proportion entering full-time Further Education increased by 3% points to 19%. The proportion of school leavers entering the labour market (employment and/or training) has fallen over recent years - from 44% in 1997/98 to 30% in 2002/03. The proportion of school leavers entering the labour market in Edinburgh and and Scotland during 2002/03 was broadly similar 31% and 28% respectively. With the proportion of school leavers entering Higher and Further Education stable and numbers entering employment or training falling, there has been a simultaneous rise in the proportion of school leavers entering other known destinations (either seeking

9 employment/training or not seeking employment/training). This trend is not restricted to West but appears to have increased across Edinburgh and and many areas of Scotland. In 1997/98, the proportion of school leavers entering other known destinations was 12%. By 2002/03, this had increased by 5% points to 17%. The proportion of school leavers who were unemployed and seeking employment or training was 14% in 2002/03 slightly above the Scottish average. Table 14: School leaver destinations 1997/ / / / / /03 Full-time Higher Education Full-time Further Education Training Employment Other known destinations (of which unemployed*) NA 14 NA 14 NA 12 Destination unknown Number of school leavers 1,771 1,772 7,120 7,264 59,286 57,266 Source: Destination of Leavers from Scottish (publicly funded) Schools, Scottish Executive. *Refers to unemployed and seeking work or training. The data relate to the latest known destination of leavers as known at 6 th October. The category other known destinations refers to unemployment, either seeking either employment/training or not seeking employment/training. This category also includes school leavers undertaking unpaid voluntary work, taking time out, and school leavers who are employed and/or in education part-time (less than 21 hours per week) or more than one part-time placement. Please note that the Employment category also includes school leavers undertaking employment-based training such as Modern Apprenticeships. OFFICIAL DATA SOURCES AND USEFUL LINKS The following are the main Scottish and national web links for labour market and economic information, analysis and reports. Futureskills Scotland - the main gateway to information and statistics on the Scottish labour market, including an interactive map toolkit and research library. Scottish Executive Statistics - provides a broad range of information and statistics on Scotland s economy and labour market, including economic profiles for Scotland s local authorities. Office for National Statistics (ONS) provides the main source of official statistics for the UK, including labour market trends and local authority profiles from the Labour Force Survey ( General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) provides the main source of data on Scotland s population and demographic change. SCROL (Scottish Census Online) provides free online access to the majority of data from the 2001 census. NOMIS is an on-line information system containing an extensive range of government statistics concerning the labour market. Data covers the UK, regions, LEC areas, local authorities and some data is available at ward and postcode level. NOMIS is a free service but registration is required. For further information about any of these sources or enquiries about labour market information please contact the LLMU on /6021.