The Kirklees labour market: performance, dynamics and challenges

Transcription

1 The Kirklees labour market: performance, dynamics and challenges 1

2 Contents 1. Introduction and context 2. Policy context 3. National and local economic context 4. Current and projected demand for labour 5. Local supply of labour and skills 6. Conclusions and assessment of alignment 1. Introduction and context This report sets out the findings of an in depth analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the local labour market in Kirklees and the wider Leeds City Region. In particular, it focuses on the skills of the local residents and how these are changing over time. It also examines recent trends and forecasts of the local and City Region economy and examines whether there is a mismatch between the supply of and demand for labour locally and within the City Region. The report has been commissioned by Leeds City College (LCC) through the Local Response Fund. This is a European Social Fund initiative managed by the college and funded through the Skills Support for the Workforce programme. The project works closely with small and medium employers (SMEs) and microbusinesses in the Leeds City Region to facilitate free accredited training, support and bespoke interventions to enhance skills and drive up productivity. The brief set out that the quality of labour market analysis significantly affects the ability of the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) and local partners to engage effectively with businesses and with the Skills Network in order to shape and align provision. It noted that it is vital that employment and skills issues in the LCR are considered in the context of the shifts in the composition of the LCR economy and upon the key growth and employment sectors if the LEPs role as strategic influencer of skills provision is to be enhanced. It set out that making labour market information available at the local authority level is also vital if the priorities of local areas are to be understood and acted upon. Local partners (Colleges and Local Authorities) will be involved in determining local research priorities and resulting action plans and so are key stakeholders in this research. The brief set out that the analyses should contain: 2

3 A contextual analysis of the local economy. An analysis of local skills supply. An analysis of skills demand and an assessment of the alignment / mismatch between the two. It notes that the analysis should reflect the local priorities of each area, should draw upon all relevant data sources and forecasts. To respond to these requirements, this report assesses the local economic context and the demand and supply side challenges facing the labour market. It uses a range of indicators from a number of authoritative sources. The report goes further than traditional profiling of the local labour market as it analyses the changing nature of the local, City Region and national economies and what the required occupations and skills levels are likely to be to meet these changes. It makes use of both the Yorkshire and Humberside Regional Economic Model (REM) and projections of future labour demand by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES). It also sets out employers views on current skills gaps in the City Region. Finally, it assesses the extent that the local labour force in Kirklees is currently adapting to these changes, what its strengths and weaknesses are, and considers what more is likely to be needed in future to meet the demands of the changing economy. This will provide messages for local providers as well as partners. This report particularly focussing on Kirklees, as well as the wider LCR is one of nine local area reports produced for local authority areas within the City Region. 3

4 2. Policy context Leeds City Region Enterprise Partnership s (LEP) Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) was submitted to central government in spring This plan is founded on four strategic pillars, which respond to identified key economic challenges and opportunities. These priorities are: 1. Supporting growing businesses 2. Developing a skilled and flexible workforce 3. Building a resource smart City Region 4. Delivering the infrastructure for growth Priority 1 aims to encourage and support City Region companies who want to grow, export and to innovate in any industry, but particularly in six principle industries: innovative manufacturing; financial & professional services; health & life sciences; low carbon & environmental industries; digital & creative industries; food & drink Over the long term under Priority 2, the ambition is to create a NEET-free City Region, with more and better jobs, and the skilled and flexible local workforce to sustain them. The SEP set out that the economy requires a skilled and flexible workforce to thrive and grow. Improving skills by supporting businesses to unlock the potential of the existing and future workforce is therefore vital to accelerate productivity, competitiveness and economic prosperity across the City Region. Considerable progress has already been made with the NEET-free City Region ambition agreed in the 2012 City Deal, and LCR now has aspirations to become a higher-skilled, higher-wage economy by tackling persistent underemployment and supporting people to gain the skills to help them get access to more and better jobs. The current Skills Plan focuses on three central themes, each with a distinct response to the challenges ahead and focused on delivering a better skilled, more productive and more prosperous City Region: building skills in education; transition into work; and raising demand and improving skills 4

5 On the basis of these plans, in the period ahead the LEP intends to focus on the following priorities in terms of skills and the labour market: a skills capital investment programme to ensure that key sectors and sources of growth are supported by high quality skills and education facilities; a pioneering Skills Hub and Skills Fund Programme to address the skills issues of SMEs in sectors which present the greatest opportunities for economic and employment growth; initiatives to promote enterprise, entrepreneurship and innovation in young people; continued expansion of the City Region Apprenticeship Hub Plus Programme that provides a central local point of contact for free, independent and better co-ordinated advice and support on the benefits of apprenticeships to SMEs; labour market initiatives to extend the scope of the recently awarded Cabinet Office Youth Contract Head Start model and the proven Devolved Youth Contract; actively developing skills provision in readiness for high speed rail investment; and Explore the opportunity for national centres of provision in the Advanced Engineering and Software Engineering to address the significant shortages experienced in these areas. These priorities and key sectors need to be considered when considering the current supply and demand for skills, locally and across the LCR. 5

6 3. National and local economic context This section sets the context for the analysis to follow by analysing recent economic and labour market changes nationally and in the LCR and Kirklees over the past decade, as well as the period since the end of the 2008/09 recession. As demonstrated in the following graphics, the UK economy is undergoing an unprecedented period of change. Recent economic trends, particularly since the recession, are combining with longer term structural changes in the economy to produce new and evolving challenges. At the same time, seeking to tackle the entrenched spatial disparities in economic and social conditions within the UK remains an ongoing policy concern. The period of recovery in the UK since the recession has perplexed economists and other commentators. A period of relatively low GDP growth followed the recession, although this has since accelerated. The particularly noteworthy trend has been the relatively low levels of unemployment which have continued to reduce, as demonstrated in Figures 1 and 2 - in contrast to trends in previous recessions. This is partly explained by a number of factors including stagnant and falling incomes (Figure 3), together with increased part time work and self-employment (Figure 4). At the same time, wider structural changes are taking place in the structure of both national and regional economies in terms of changing sectors, occupations and technologies. These are examined further in the sections below. 6

7 Figure 1: UK GDP and employment growth % Unemployment % Quarterly GDP growth August 1999 June 2000 April 2001 February 2002 December 2002 October 2003 August 2004 June 2005 April 2006 February 2007 December 2007 October 2008 August 2009 June 2010 April 2011 February 2012 December 2012 October Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 Source: ONS Figure 2: UK Unemployment and JSA rates UK unemployment rate UK JSA rate Source: ONS 7

8 Figure 3: National median incomes growth Source: ONS Figure 4: UK rates of part time work and self-employment self employment part time employment Source: ONS 8

9 These national trends help to explain the local trends that are shown in this report; however local context is also likely to be a factor. What is clear is that the context for both the supply of, and demand for skills is evolving. The challenge for local policy makers and providers is to be cognisant of these changes and seek to shape provision accordingly. Table 1 below shows the headline local economic context in Kirklees. The district has a total working age population of over 272,000, a 7.5% increase over the last decade. The total number of people who work in Kirklees is almost 145,800 employees, while the most recent annual GVA estimate is almost 6.2bn. Table 1: Summary of local economic context Kirklees Leeds City Region England Total working age population % change in working age population ,700 1,912,200 34,351, GVA 6, , ,372, GVA per FTE employee Total employment 145,789 1,270,226 23,631,920 Source: ONS A key point in understanding local economic geography is that the nature of local residents of an area may be very different to the workforce of an area due to patterns of commuting. The most recent release from the 2011 census shows that 63% of Kirklees residents also work in the district. Job density, the measure of employees as a proportion of the resident working age population is 0.62, lower than the LCR average. Both of these suggest that Kirklees is one of the medium level employment nodes within the City Region. Kirklees has one of the larger net outflows of commuters of districts within the City Region. 9

10 Table 2: Labour market geography Kirklees Leeds City Region England Live work rate Job density Net commuting as a % of people in work Source: ONS As well as locally, residents of Kirklees also principally work in Leeds (10.2%), Calderdale (5.3%), Bradford (4.6%) and Wakefield (4.1%). The demand for labour in these, as well as other surrounding areas, is also important for local residents. The incomes of the workforce of Kirklees are lower than the resident incomes in the area, suggesting an exporting of higher earners out of the district. While below national levels, incomes in Kirklees are among the lowest in the LCR and haven t seen the rate of growth observed in other districts. Figure 5: Median resident and workplace incomes 2014 compared ( ) Workplace incomes Resident incomes Source: ONS 10

11 4. Current and projected demand for labour This section examines the potential demand for skills from the local and City Region economy and its firms, and what this may mean for the local supply of labour described in the previous section. It analyses projected demand across key sectors to understand where future skills demand might be. It then sets out analysis of the UKCES Employer Skills Survey to understand their views of current gaps in the labour market and expectations about future demand for skills. As shown in the previous section, the latest figures show that there are approximately 145,800 jobs in Kirklees, with a job density of Figure 6 below shows how this employment breaks down by sector. It confirms that the principle private sectors in Kirklees are motor trades, retail and wholesale, and manufacturing. Figure 6: Breakdown of broad industrial sectors Kirklees Leeds City Region England Source: BRES This is confirmed by Tables 3 and 4 below which sets out a set of Location Quotients which gives an indication of levels of specialisation in the Kirklees and LCR economy. This method measures the extent of local concentration of employment in each sector compared to national levels. It sets out a detailed breakdown by sector. Firstly broad industrial sectors are analysed, followed by a 11

12 more detailed set of sub sectors. LQ values of over 1 suggest some degree of specialisation, with over 1.5 traditionally considered to be particularly significant. In terms of broad sectors, manufacturing is the principle specialism in Kirklees. Table 4 shows particular niche specialisms in particular areas of manufacturing. Table 3: Location Quotients for broad sectors 2013 Kirklees Leeds City Region Primary industries Manufacturing Construction Motor trades, retail & wholesale Transport & storage Accommodation & food ICT Finance & insurance Property Professional, scientific & technical Business administration Public services Arts, entertainment & recreation Source: BRES 12

13 2013 Table 4: Principle Location Quotients for detailed sectors Kirklees Leeds City Region Manufacture of textiles Manufacture of furniture Manufacture of machinery and equipment Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations Veterinary activities Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products Printing and reproduction of recorded media Other mining and quarrying Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork Source: BRES 13

14 Wholesale & Retail Utilities Transport & storage Public Services Professional Services Manufacturing ICT Finance & Insurance Extraction & Mining Construction Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Accommodation, Food & Recreation Future projections by sector This section makes use of the Regional Economic Model (REM) to establish what is likely to happen to GVA (output) and employment for the broad industrial sectors in Kirklees and the wider LCR. The model shows that the sectors forecast to have the largest increase in output are ICT, construction, transport and storage and finance and insurance, as well as wholesale and retail. Figure 7: Forecast % change in GVA by sector in Kirklees and the LCR Kirklees 0 LCR Source: Experian 14

15 Wholesale & Retail Utilities Transport & storage Public Services Professional Services Manufacturing ICT Finance & Insurance Extraction & Mining Construction Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Accommodation, Food & Recreation There is a different picture in terms of projected employment. Construction is again projected to see a large increase, while accommodation and food, as well as transport and storage and ICT are also projected to see increases in employment. Manufacturing and primary industries are forecast to see reductions in employment over the coming decade. Figure 8: Forecast % change in FTE employment by sector in Kirklees and the LCR Kirklees 0 LCR Source: Experian 15

16 Wholesale & Retail Utilities Transport & storage Public Services Professional & Other Private Services Manufacturing Information & communication Finance & Insurance Extraction & Mining Construction Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation These forecasts for GVA and employment are summarised for Kirklees in Figure 9 below. They emphasise the contrast in which sectors growth in each is likely to come from. Figure 9: Forecast change in GVA and FTE employment by sector in Kirklees GVA 0 FTE Source: Experian Employer demand for skills The UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) conducts an Employer Skills Survey every other year. The Commission believes that this is one of the largest and richest surveys of employers in the world, interviewing over 91,000 employers in every sector across the UK. It gives a comprehensive picture of skills needs and training investment, including vacancies and skills shortages, employee skill gaps and the recruitment of education leavers and young people. In the following section, the results from the 2013 survey are presented, focusing on LCR-specific findings as this is the lowest level of coverage. The following definitions are useful in interpreting the results of the survey. Hard-to-fill vacancies - vacancies which are proving difficult to fill, as defined by the establishment 16

17 Skill shortage vacancies - vacancies which are proving difficult to fill due to the establishment not being able to find applicants with the appropriate skills, qualifications or experience. Skills gap this is where an employee is not fully proficient, i.e. is not able to do their job to the required level. The ESS estimated that there were almost 24,300 vacancies in the LCR. Of these over 5,000 were deemed to be hard-to-fill. 15% of firms had at least one vacancy of which 4% had a vacancy that was hard to fill, and 3% had a skills shortage vacancy. Table 5: Total job vacancies LCR Total number of vacancies Total number of hard to fill vacancies Total number of skills shortage vacancies Source: UKCESS ESS Table 6: % of firms with identified vacancies 2013 LCR UK Have at least one vacancy 14% 15% Have at least one vacancy that is hard to fill 4% 5% Have a skills shortage vacancy 3% 4% Average vacancies per establishment with vacancies Source: UKCESS ESS Of those employers who reported at least one vacancy in the LCR, 30% had a hard to fill vacancy and 24% reported a skills shortage. 17

18 Figure 10: % of employers reporting at least one vacancy 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% LCR Total Have at least one vacancy that is hard to fill Have a skills shortage vacancy Source: UKCESS ESS Figure 11 below shows that admin and clerical roles and sales and customer services were the top two occupations identified as having vacancies, followed by caring and leisure and skilled trades. The principle occupations identified were in skilled trades, professionals and associate professionals. Other occupations identified included sales and customer services and caring and leisure occupations. 18

19 Figure 11: job vacancies by occupation 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: UKCESS ESS Leeds City Region Figure 12: skills shortages by occupation 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: UKCESS ESS 19

20 Higher Level Skills Needs in the City Region While the data in this national survey is at the Leeds City Region level, it provides a useful proxy for employers views on the supply of skills coming on stream for local firms. It possibly needs to be considered that employers are likely to answer these against their ideal needs of new employees, but the reality is that they will take a more pragmatic approach to the need to develop new staff. As Table 7 shows, there are a range of skills that aren t immediately available from local applicants. The majority have concerns about practical, job specific skills, as might be expected, but a range of wider skills and knowledge gaps were identified including planning and organisation, communication and technical expertise. Table 7: Skills found difficult to obtain from applicants Skill UK Leeds City Region Technical, practical or job specific skills 62% 62% Planning and Organisation skills 45% 50% Customer handling skills 43% 48% Problem solving skills 41% 43% Team working skills 34% 42% Strategic Management skills 31% 42% Oral communication skills 42% 41% Written communication skills 39% 39% Literacy skills 34% 32% Numeracy skills 28% 23% Advanced IT or software skills 23% 18% Basic computer literacy / using IT 18% 18% Foreign language skills 17% 13% No particular skills difficulties 3% 5% Experience/lack of product knowledge 3% 4% Source: UKCES ESS 20

21 The drivers of some of these concerns are set out in the table below. Being new to the role is understandable, however employers cite issues of training, skills, motivation, as well as changing technologies and products. All of these point to challenges for the wider provision of skills, as well as for apprenticeships. Table 8: Causes of skills gaps Leeds City Region Their training is currently only partially completed 62% They are new to the role 61% Staff lack motivation 33% They have been on training but their performance has not improved sufficiently 31% They have not received the appropriate training 25% The introduction of new working practices 24% Unable to recruit staff with the required skills 24% The development of new products and service 20% The introduction of new technology 19% Problems retaining staff 10% Lack of other skills e.g. communication, interpersonal* 1% Lack of aptitude to do job/reached maximum potential* 1% Non-work related problems e.g. health or personal 1% problems* Staff are too old to carry out the work required* 1% Source: UKCES ESS 71% of firms have not recruited those leaving education both nationally and in the LCR. As might be expected, the majority of those recruited straight from education are from universities and colleges, rather than from schools. This fits with the finding in the following table about these establishments and older leavers being better prepared for work. 21

22 Table 9: Recruited anyone to their first job on leaving school, college or university in the last 2-3 years UK Leeds City Region Yes - 16 year olds recruited to first job from school 8% 10% Yes - 17 or 18 year olds recruited to first job from school 11% 11% Yes - 17 or 18 year olds recruited to first job from FE College Yes - Recruited to their first job from University or other Higher Education institution 12% 14% 14% 14% No, have not recruited education leavers 71% 71% Any 27% 28% Source: UKCES ESS Table 10: Perspectives on levels of preparedness for work Age Very Well/ Well Prepared Poor/ Very Poor Prepared LCR National average LCR National Average 16 yrs 63% 59% 33% 36% yrs (School) 66% 66% 30% 29% yrs (College) 75% 74% 20% 22% HE Graduate 87% 83% 10% 13% Source: UKCES ESS These views were also reflected when asked about these groups of leavers readiness for work. While there were issues cited with all groups, a greater proportion had concerns about younger leavers with less educational attainment. 22

23 Table 11: Perspectives on first time employees skills gaps in LCR Age 16 yrs yrs (School) yrs (College) HE Graduate LCR National average LCR National average LCR National average LCR National average Lack required skills 8% 10% 7% 9% 5% 7% 3% 5% Poor attitude/personality & motivation Lack of working world / life experience or maturity Poor Education, numeracy, literacy skills None / recruits not poorly prepared 14% 18% 12% 15% 8% 11% 3% 5% 21% 23% 19% 18% 12% 14% 6% 8% 10% 14% 9% 11% 6% 9% 3% 6% 67% 64% 70% 71% 80% 78% 90% 87% Source: UKCES ESS Future demand UKCES also model future the demands of the national economy, including providing sub national breakdowns including for the LCR. The results are based on the use of a multi-sectoral, regional macroeconomic model, combined with occupational, replacement demand and qualification modules. The model has a different function to the REM as it produces projections and numbers of jobs required to service future demand in each. The results are intended to provide a statistical foundation for the deliberations of all those with an interest in the supply of and demand for skills. As shown in table 12 and figure 13 below, higher occupations are projected to increase over the course of the coming decade. There is a significant projected increase for higher level occupations such as managers and directors, professional and technical occupations, as well as caring, leisure and other services. Other occupations are projected to see a reduction in employment. 23

24 Table 12: Future employment change by occupation - % change Managers, directors and senior officials Professional occupations Associate professional and technical Administrative and secretarial Skilled trades occupations Caring, leisure and other service Sales and customer service Process, plant and machine operatives Elementary occupations -1.6 Total 4.2 Source: UKCESS Working Futures 24

25 Figure 13: Projected future occupations 2012 and 2022 percentages Source: UKCESS Working Futures When broken down by more detailed occupations, UKCES forecast that the main changes will be in care services and health professionals, customer services, managers and directors and other professional occupations. The principal reductions are in more elementary occupations in manufacturing and administration. Table 13: projected % change by detailed occupation levels Caring personal service occupations 28% Health and social care associate professionals 27% Health professionals 24% Customer service occupations 23% Corporate managers and directors 22% Business, media and public service professionals 20% 25

26 Science, research, engineering and technology professionals 20% Business and public service associate professionals 16% Culture, media and sports occupations 15% Science, engineering and technology associate professionals 10% Teaching and educational professionals 6% Other managers and proprietors 4% All occupations 4% Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations 4% Skilled construction and building trades 2% Elementary trades and related occupations 0% Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives -1% Elementary administration and service occupations -2% Administrative occupations -3% Skilled agricultural and related trades -8% Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades -9% Sales occupations -11% Protective service occupations -11% Process, plant and machine operatives -28% Secretarial and related occupations -32% Textiles, printing and other skilled trades -41% Source: UKCESS Working Futures The model also forecasts future demand for skills. It projects a continuation of the up skilling of the workforce seen in recent decades. Greater proportions of degrees and higher are predicted, with a corresponding reduction in qualification of levels of A Levels and below. 26

27 Figure 14: Projected future skills requirements in the LCR Source: UKCESS Working Futures The model also projects future demand by key sector. While using a different model to the REM, it largely agrees with most of the principal growth sectors, including ICT, professional services, construction and health and social work. It also agrees on the sectors most likely to see employment decline including manufacturing and primary industries. Table 14: Future demand by sector - % change Information technology 27.0 Electricity and gas 16.4 Professional services 13.7 Construction 11.8 Health and social work 11.2 Transport and storage 9.9 Real estate

28 Water and sewerage 8.4 Support services 7.5 Finance and insurance 7.3 Other services 6.9 Arts and entertainment 4.5 Engineering 4.2 Media 3.3 Wholesale and retail trade 2.9 Accommodation and food 2.6 Education -2.7 Public admin. and defence -9.4 Food drink and tobacco Rest of manufacturing Agriculture Mining and quarrying

29 5. Local supply of labour and skills This section of the report analyses the local supply of labour and skills of residents of Kirklees and the wider LCR and compares these to national trends. It firstly analyses overall trends in employment and unemployment, followed by current and recent trends in occupations. This is followed by an extensive analysis of trends in the supply of skills, including recent trends in higher education and apprenticeships. The skills section also considers the sectors, skills levels and occupations of those currently becoming qualified in Kirklees and the LCR. Employment and unemployment Local trends do not look to be following the national trends in some ways, Figure 15 shows that the employment rate in the district has decreased in recent years falling below national and LCR rates. The latest figure is over 74%, 191,900 people in work. Figure 15: Employment rate (3 year rolling average) Kirklees LCR England Source: ONS At the same time, unemployment has remained flat over recent years. While levels have been higher than nationally since the recession and moved higher than the LCR average in 2014, the unemployment rate reduced to 8.5% in 2014 from 9.3% in

30 Figure 16: Unemployment rate (3 year rolling average) Kirklees LCR England Source: ONS modelled figures Table 15 below shows the latest data on the number and proportion of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET). The figures suggest that over 400 young people almost 6%) were known to be NEET. Table 15: Number and % NEET 2013 Barnsley Bradford Calderdale Kirklees Leeds North Yorkshire Wakefield York England Estimated number , ,240 % 5.4% 5.4% 5.7% 5.7% 6.7% 4.3% 5.3% 4.2% 5% Source: Department of Education 30

31 In line with national trends, levels of self-employment have increased in Kirklees since They have gone ahead of LCR levels to close the gap on national levels with almost 9% of employees now self-employed in the district. Figure 17: % self-employed Kirklees LCR England Source: ONS 31

32 Figure 18 below shows how the proportion of part time employment has fallen in Kirklees then risen back up to similar levels both nationally and in the LCR overall. Over 26% of those in employment now work part time, compared to 24.2% in Figure 18: % part time employment Kirklees LCR England Source: ONS 32

33 Occupations Figure 19 below shows the latest proportions of employees in particular occupations in Kirklees, compared to the LCR and nationally. It shows that the resident workforce of Kirklees has a greater proportion of higher end occupations than LCR (but not nationally) including managers and directors, and professional and technical, while also seeing relatively more workers than nationally and LCR involved in skilled trades and process, plant and machine operatives reflecting the manufacturing specialism of the area. Figure 19: Standard occupations Kirklees LCR England Source: ONS 33

34 These occupations have seen a notable pattern of change over the past five years. Figure 20 shows how the proportion of professional and technical occupations have increased nationally, but particularly in Kirklees. Caring, leisure and other services have also increased in this period. A number of other occupations including administrative, skilled trades, process, plants and machine operatives and elementary occupations have seen a relative reduction over the past five years. Figure 20: Standard occupations % change Kirklees LCR England Source: ONS The local supply of skills This section of the report analyses the local supply of skills of residents of Kirklees and the wider LCR. It is widely accepted that qualifications, acting as an imperfect proxy for skills, are a strong predictor of labour market success: low skilled people are more likely to be unemployed. It considers a number of perspectives. Firstly it analyses overall qualifications levels in the district, before examining them for both under 16s and adults to understand the current levels of skills in the local labour market. Finally, it considers current levels of the take-up of education and training opportunities including higher education, adult education and apprenticeships. 34

35 Figures 21, 22 and 23 below demonstrate recent trends in qualifications and are a largely positive picture. While on average below national levels, the proportion of the economically active workforce gaining skills at different levels is increasing in Kirklees, as well as the wider LCR. Almost 30% of Kirklees workforce are now qualified to NVQ4 (degree) level or over above, up from 22% in 2006, while almost 69% are now qualified to NVQ2 level (5 or more GCSEs at grades A-C), increased from 61% in Adult Economically active Figure 21: % with NVQ4 and above Kirklees LCR England Source: ONS 35

36 Figure 22: % with NVQ2 and above Kirklees LCR England Source: ONS At the same time and again positively - the proportion of the workforce with no qualifications has reduced in this period from 16% to 13.6%. Figure 23: % with no qualifications Kirklees LCR England Source: ONS 36

37 Young people The most recent statistics on GCSE performance levels also show a positive trend for Kirklees, with the proportion of local children at GCSE level showing a consistent year on year increase in performance, and recently outstripping national levels. Figure 24: % 5+ A*- C Grades including English and Maths GCSE Kirklees England Source: ONS 37

38 Education and Training The most recent returns from the Data Service of the Skills Funding Agency there has been a rise in the total number of learners in Kirklees colleges since 2010/11. Levels of enrolments, starts and achievements have all consistently risen over the past three years, as demonstrated in Figure 25. Figure 25: Enrolments, starts and achievements in further education in Kirklees / / / / / / / / 2012 Starts Enrolments Achievements 2012 / 2013 Source: SFA While the numbers dipped in 2010, generally numbers of both youth and adult learners have increased in recent years (Figure 26 below) 38

39 Figure 26: numbers of youth and adult starts in Kirklees / / / / / 2013 Youth Adult Source: SFA Tables 16 and 17 below shows the principle subjects taken in Kirklees colleges and by training providers over the last two years. High numbers in subjects such as Foundations for Learning and Preparation for work are to be expected as they are offered to most students who start a course. Health care, business management, science and mathematics and statistics are increasingly popular and this is welcome news as they are subjects that policy makers are keen for young people to study in order to make a strong contribution to the economy. Table 16: principle under 19 starts in education and training by subject Kirklees 2011/ /13 Foundations for Learning and Life Science Health and Social Care Mathematics and Statistics Preparation for Work Business Management Languages, Literature and Culture of the British Isles

40 Sport, Leisure and Recreation Crafts, Creative Arts and Design Service Enterprises Sociology and Social Policy History Performing Arts Media and Communication ICT Practitioners Building and Construction Source: SFA For adult starts, Preparation for Life and Work accounted for a large proportion of the total. Health and Social Care, ICT for Users, Public Services, and Building and Construction and were also popular. Table 17: Principle 19+ starts in education and training by subject Kirklees 2011/ /13 Foundations for Learning and Life Preparation for Life and Work Preparation for Work Health and Social Care ICT for Users Service Enterprises Business Management Building and Construction Public Services Mathematics and Statistics Not Applicable Languages, Literature and Culture of the British

41 Isles Arts, Media and Publishing Sport, Leisure and Recreation ICT Practitioners Administration Transportation Operations and Maintenance Source: SFA Apprenticeships in Kirklees The number of youth apprenticeship starts in Kirklees has generally increased over the past five years with a small decrease in 2012/13. As Figure 27 shows, it is particularly positive that increasing numbers of apprenticeships at higher and advanced levels. Figure 27: Apprenticeships starts by level Advanced Higher Intermediate / / / / / 2013 Source: SFA 41

42 When analysed by framework (or sector), a large number of youth apprenticeship starts in 2012/13 were in business administration (both intermediate and advanced levels). This was one of the most popular frameworks and it aligns with what the Apprenticeship Vacancies Online System data reveals that this framework/sector generated the most vacancies and the most applications. Other popular sectors included improving operational performance, hairdressing, engineering and customer services. Table 18: Principle youth apprenticeship sectors, Kirklees 2011/ /13 Business and Administration - Intermediate Level Improving Operational Performance - Intermediate Level Hairdressing - Intermediate Level Engineering Manufacture Craft Technician - Advanced level - Advanced Construction Building - Intermediate Level Children and Young People's Workforce - Advanced Level Customer Service - Intermediate Level Children and Young People's Workforce - Intermediate Level Vehicle Maintenance & Repair - Intermediate Level Retail - Intermediate Level Health and Social Care Accounting - Intermediate Level Vehicle Maintenance & Repair - Advanced Level Hairdressing - Advanced Level Hospitality and Catering - Intermediate Level Plumbing and Heating - Intermediate Level Source: SFA Data Service 42

43 Adult apprenticeships on the other hand, were dominated by Health and Social Care, Management and Customer Service. Retail and Hospitality and Catering were also popular. Table 19: Principle adult apprenticeship sectors Kirklees 2011/ /13 Health and Social Care Health and Social Care - Advanced Level Management - Advanced Level Customer Service - Intermediate Level Customer Service - Advanced Level Management - Intermediate Level Business and Administration - Intermediate Level Business and Administration - Advanced Level Retail - Intermediate Level Children and Young People's Workforce - Advanced Level Improving Operational Performance - Intermediate Level Retail - Advanced Level Supporting Teaching and Learning in Schools - Advanced Level Hospitality and Catering - Intermediate Level Passenger Carrying Vehicle (Bus and Coach) - Intermediate Level Engineering Manufacture Craft Technician - Advanced level - Advanced Vehicle Maintenance & Repair - Advanced Level Warehousing and Storage - Intermediate Level Driving Goods Vehicles - Intermediate Level Source: SFA Data Cube 43

44 Higher Education Data on higher education is generally held at the LCR, rather than district level. Enrolment into universities in the LCR fell by 7% in the 2012/13 academic year to 116,400 students. In terms of subject areas, the biggest fall was in Education where enrolment fell by more than 2,000 students. Business and Administrative Studies, Law, Social Studies and subjects allied to Medicine also suffered falls. Biological Studies was the only subject to record an increase in enrolment. Intake rose by more than 500 students, equivalent to a 5% increase on the previous year. Table 20: Leeds City Region HE Enrolment Subject area 2011/ /13 Change % Share (2012/13) Business & administrative studies 17,863 16,665-1,198 14% Subjects allied to medicine 15,775 15, % Social studies 12,293 11, % Biological sciences 9,695 10, % Education 11,418 9,376-2,041 8% Creative arts & design 9,075 8, % Languages 9,791 8, % Engineering & technology 7,921 7, % Historical & philosophical studies 6,735 6, % Physical sciences 5,635 5, % Computer science 4,003 3, % Law 3,587 3, % Mass communications & documentation 3,443 2, % Medicine & dentistry 2,770 2, % Architecture, building & 2,526 2, % 44

45 planning Mathematical sciences 1,607 1, % Agriculture & related subjects % Combined % Total 124, ,409-8, % Source: HESA The Destination of Leavers in Higher Education (DLHE) survey tracks students six months after graduation. Only UK, full-time, 1 st degree students are surveyed. The latest data suggests that 68% of graduates who attended LCR universities had secured employment six months after graduation. Of the total number of Higher Education graduates from LCR universities, the proportion in employment ranged from 61% for the University of York to 80% for Leeds Trinity University. Table 21: Destination of leavers in the Leeds City Region Institution In Employment* Studying* Unemployed Other** Leeds Trinity University 80% 6% 6% 7% York St John University 74% 7% 5% 13% Leeds College of Art 72% 17% 5% 6% The University of Leeds 70% 14% 6% 10% The University of Huddersfield 69% 11% 5% 15% The University of Bradford 66% 15% 11% 9% Leeds Metropolitan University 65% 20% 6% 9% The University of York 61% 21% 4% 14% Total 68% 15% 6% 11% Source: HESA *- includes full and part-time; **includes (but not limited to) those primarily working but also studying and those primarily studying but also working. 45

46 21% of University of York graduates surveyed had returned to studying six months after completing their first degree, compared to only 6% for Leeds Trinity University graduates. This is, in part, a reflection of the nature of degree being offered in these institutions as some lend themselves more to further post graduate study than others. Of those who had secured employment, 73% of the LCR cohort had secured professional employment. This includes Managers, Directors and senior officials, Professional occupations and Associate professional and technical occupations. Bradford University led the way with 80% of their students in employment securing professional jobs compared to 60% by Leeds College of Art students. Again this, at least in part, reflects the nature of degrees offered by the institutions and the opportunities available in the labour market. Table 22: Profession of leavers securing employment in the LCR Institution Professional Employment Non- Professional Employment The University of Bradford 80% 20% The University of Huddersfield 76% 24% The University of Leeds 74% 26% The University of York 73% 27% York St John University 69% 31% Leeds Metropolitan University 68% 32% Leeds Trinity University 67% 33% Leeds College of Art 60% 40% Total 73% 27% Source: HESA Another way of analysing the data is to assess all graduates resident in LCR irrespective of the university they attended thus including those who graduated from universities outside LCR. In all, there were 17,120 such 46

47 graduates in this cohort. Of these, half attended university in LCR and 43% studied outside Yorkshire and Humber entirely. Table 23: Leeds City Region resident graduates in employment LCR Resident Graduates in the cohort 17,120 In employment 13,165 77% Professional Employment 9,700 74% Non-Professional employment 3,400 26% Source: HESA About 77% of the graduates (13,165) had secured employment within six months of graduation. Of these 9,700 (74%) were in professional level employment broadly similar to the previous year. Of those that had secured employment (13,165), 72% were working in Yorkshire and Humber compared to 63% the previous year. Almost 7,000 of the 2012/13 graduates (53%) had secured employment in West Yorkshire, compared to 45% in the 2011/12 cohort. This shows that the labour market for high level skills in LCR has improved considerably since the recession. Table 24: Occupations of LCR resident graduates in professional employment Standard occupational classification Total % Share Teaching and educational professionals 2,033 21% Health professionals 1,854 19% Business and public service associate professionals 1,560 16% Business, media and public service professionals 1,057 11% Science, research, engineering and technology professionals % Culture, media and sports occupations 640 7% Health and social care associate professionals 625 6% Corporate managers and directors 413 4% Science, engineering and technology associate 272 3% 47

48 professionals Other managers and proprietors 244 3% Protective service occupations 51 1% Total 9, % Source: HESA The table above shows that more than one in five of the LCR graduates in professional employment in this cohort were employed as teaching and educational professionals. Slightly less than that (19%) were health professionals and 16% were working as business and public service associate professionals. Of those who were in no professional employment (3,427) 23% were in sales occupations and another 19% were in administrative occupations. A further 18% were employed in caring and personal service occupations whiles 17% were working in elementary administration and service occupations. 48

49 6. Conclusions and assessment of alignment The final section of this review presents an analysis of the previous sections to establish the extent of alignment between the supply of and demand for labour in Kirklees and the wider LCR economy. It also draws overall conclusions on the strengths and weaknesses of the local labour market. Overall conclusions It is clear from this analysis that the local supply of labour, and particularly of skills, has a number of strengths. The district has higher proportions of higher end occupation groups who work in particular niche sectors. MORE HERE At the same time, it shares many of the current national concerns of increasing self-employment and part time work, as well as the hollowing out of middle level occupations. The quality of work for many is likely to be an ongoing issue compounded by a growing working age population. Positively, the proportion of the local resident workforce with higher skills is continuing to increase, while the proportion with no qualifications is reducing, both in line with national trends. The numbers of learners in Kirklees colleges is increasing, as is the number of apprenticeships. GCSE attainment in Kirklees outperforms national results. It is not all positive, however, Kirklees generally lags behind national levels across all skills levels. Overall, however, the indications are that the district s workforce is continuing to adapt to the changing demands of the national and local economy which is positive. When looking at the demand for skills, however, it is clear that there will continue to be a range of evolving requirements from local employers. These provide a set of ongoing challenges to those setting skills policies and designing provision. These include some practical messages in terms of skills gaps and levels of preparedness for work. They also include more structural issues in terms of helping to ensure greater alignment between the demand for, and supply of skills. These are set out below. There is also a question about whether local suppliers want to go with the grain of current demand in the market or to supply skills to other sectors and in other occupations. 49

50 Alignment and mismatch in skills demand the local economy and labour market This section considers the extent of local alignment between the local supply of skills and labour, compared to the demand from the local and City Region economies. It considers current and future demand in terms of economic sectors, as well as occupations, while also considers projected demand for skills themselves. It needs to be remembered that it is not an exact science to match up supply and demand, however some broad conclusions can be made that can inform local skills policy and provision. Examples of alignment in key sectors As set out in the policy section, the LCR SEP has identified a number of priority sectors to support in future. The following section considers the extent of current local supply and demand for a number of these. The general points made about the local economy and labour market characteristics are relevant here, although there are a number of specific points to make Innovative manufacturing Future projections suggest that manufacturing overall, both in the LCR and locally, will see a continued increase in output, but a reduction in employment. Given that it is such a significant industry for the LCR and locally, policy makers are keen to reverse this trend if possible. Pursuing more innovative and advanced manufacturing to remain competitive is key to this; although more advanced sectors can be less labour intensive. The increasing skills levels in the local population are likely to be positive in this regard. It may be of some concern, however, that there are relatively small numbers of both higher education and further education and training in this area although a number of cross cutting subjects could help. At the LCR level, only 7% of university enrolment in 2012/13 was in engineering and other manufacturing related subjects. Among apprentices there were relatively small numbers of takeup in engineering and other technical skills (less than 100), while these skills saw relatively less demand in further education. Financial & professional services Future projections suggest that this sector will continue to grow strongly both in terms of output and employment. The wider business and admin sector is the most prolific creator of opportunities for apprenticeships. This remains a popular sector and thus regularly attracts job seekers due the relatively higher wages. 50