CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes Report

Transcription

1 CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes Report

2 CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEXES MAJOR MARKET OVERVIEW Are 17 Percent Above the Fourth-Quarter Trough of 2011 Yet Still Are 23 Percent Below the First-Quarter 2006 Peak The Ratio of Median Mortgage Payment to Median Family Income Near a 40-Year Low U.S. Home PRices 11.2% in Q Home prices rose by 11.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013 compared to a year ago. U.S. home prices are now 17 percent above the trough, which was reached in the fourth quarter of 2011, but still 23 percent below the peak, which was reached in the first quarter of Prices in metro areas that were most impacted by the housing bubble continue to record strong year-over-year appreciation, with Las Vegas up 30 percent, Sacramento up 27 percent and Riverside, Calif., up 26 percent. Prices in large metro areas also exhibited strong appreciation, with Oakland, Calif., and New Orleans each up 9 percent and New York, N.Y., up 8 percent through the third quarter of 2014 on a year-over-year basis. The ratio of median mortgage payment to median family income remains near a 40-year low and is 35 percent lower than it was at the peak of the bubble, even after accounting for recent increases in prices and mortgage interest rates. Prices rose in 311 out of 384 metros in Q Home prices increased year over year in 311, or nearly 81 percent, of metropolitan areas (Core Based Statistical Areas) in the third quarter of At the same time, prices rose in all metro areas with populations greater than 1 million. Investor demand and sales of foreclosed properties are dropping quickly. This is especially true in states that were caught up early in the bubble and have nonjudicial foreclosure proceedings, such as California and Arizona. In these states, inventories of bank-owned properties are close to being cleared. Non-investor demand, although increasing, will not replace all of the demand from investors. Dr. David Stiff, principal economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes cover more than 380 U.S. markets. This includes thousands of ZIP codes, counties, metro areas and state markets. Proprietary CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price trend information is supplemented by Federal Housing Finance Agency data. reproduced in any form without express written permission. 2

3 Home Price Projections* ONE-YEAR TREND home prices are expected to rise by 4.2% from the third quarter of 2013 through the same quarter of The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes project an increase of 4.2 percent in home prices from the third quarter of 2013 through the same quarter in 2014, a rate that is close to the long-term annual average of 4.5 percent since Investor demand and sales of foreclosed properties are dropping quickly. LONGER-TERM TRENDS The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes project a continued trend of rising home prices over the next five years. Home prices are expected to rise at an annualized rate of 3.1% from the third quarter of 2013 through the third quarter of Home price appreciation is projected to slow to 4.7 percent between the third quarter of 2014 and the third quarter of Double-digit price gains are unlikely to persist, but since housing is far more affordable now than it was in 2006, there is less concern that a new housing bubble will occur. As of the third quarter of 2013, the ratio of median mortgage payment to median family income was near a 40-year low and 35 percent lower than it was at the peak of the bubble, even after accounting for recent increases in prices and mortgage interest rates. Dr. David Stiff, principle economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller *The CoreLogic Case-Shiller forecasts are produced by CoreLogic and Moody s Analytics. reproduced in any form without express written permission. 3

4 U.S. Metros Home Price Highlights Population 950,000+ Five metro areas recording largest year-over-year gains through the third quarter of 2013 Las Vegas Sacramento Riverside, Oakland, calif. Los Angeles Calif % +27.1% +25.7% +25.6% +22.0% Five metro areas with smallest gains through the third quarter of 2013 COnn. beach, va. New ORleans Hartford, philadelphia virginia nassausuffolk, n.j. +2.7% +2.9% +3.1% +3.3% +2.0% Five metro areas with largest three-year home price gains through the third quarter of 2013 Detroit Phoenix San Jose Warren, MICH. oakland, calif % +34.2% +29.9% +29.4% +27.4% Five metro areas with largest three-year home price declines through the third quarter of 2013 Camden, N.J. Virginia Beach, va. hartford, conn. nassausuffolk, n.j. edison-new brunswick, n.j. -3.8% -3.2% -2.5% -1.4% -0.8% reproduced in any form without express written permission. 4

5 U.S. Metros Home Price Projection Highlights Population 950,000+ Five metro areas with highest one-year projected increase through the third quarter of 2014 Oakland, calif. fort worth, honolulu tucson, ariz. new orleans texas +9.3% +8.9% +8.8% +8.8% +8.7% Five metro areas with lowest projected increases through the third quarter of 2014 nashville, portland, denver orlando, fla. bethesda, md. tenn. ore. +2.0% +2.6% +2.7% +2.9% +3.0% reproduced in any form without express written permission. 5

6 Major Markets Highlights Year-Over-Year Home Price Changes U.S. Single-Family (Year-Over-Year % Change) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Average annual appreciation since 1976 (4.5%) Forecast Actual Sources: CoreLogic Case-Shiller, Moody s Analytics Metro Area 3-Year Price Changes (Q Q3 2013) 10% Increase or More 0% to 10% Increase -5% to 0% Decline -5% Decline or More Sources: CoreLogic Case-Shiller, FHFA, Moody s Analytics reproduced in any form without express written permission. 6

7 Selected Metro Areas Metro Area Population (2012) (Q to Q2 2013) (Q to Q2 2013) Forecast (Q to Q2 2014) U.S. Metros Q Las Vegas 2,000, % 24.6% 5.4% Sacramento, Calif. 2,196, % 23.9% 3.8% Riverside, Calif. 4,350, % 25.0% 5.0% Oakland, Calif. 2,634, % 27.4% 9.3% 3-year change: 11.3% 1-year change: 11.2% 1-year forecast: 4.2% Los Angeles 9,962, % 22.5% 6.8% San Jose, Calif. 1,894, % 29.9% 4.6% San Francisco 1,821, % 25.2% 4.8% Detroit 1,792, % 48.8% 4.4% Phoenix, Ariz. 4,329, % 34.2% 4.3% Atlanta 5,439, % 7.1% 5.3% Orlando, Fla. 2,223, % 21.0% 2.9% Warren, Mich. 2,499, % 29.4% 4.0% Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 1,815, % 18.3% 4.4% West Palm Beach, Fla. 1,356, % 14.8% 3.6% Tampa, Fla. 2,842, % 13.3% 8.0% Miami 2,591, % 24.2% 3.9% Jacksonville, Fla. 1,377, % 7.5% 3.2% Houston 6,204, % 19.8% 3.9% Salt Lake City 1,161, % 15.4% 6.3% Austin, Texas 1,834, % 20.3% 3.7% Tucson, Ariz. 992, % 4.0% 8.8% Chicago 7,945, % 3.1% 5.4% Indianapolis, Ind. 1,798, % 14.6% 6.6% Columbus, Ohio 1,878, % 8.3% 4.3% San Antonio 2,234, % 11.6% 3.7% Richmond, Va. 1,282, % 9.1% 8.5% continued on page 8 reproduced in any form without express written permission. 7

8 Selected Metro Areas Metro Area Population (2012) (Q to Q2 2013) (Q to Q2 2013) Forecast (Q to Q2 2014) U.S. Metros Q St. Louis 2,845, % 2.9% 6.0% Nashville, Tenn. 1,644, % 6.7% 2.0% Milwaukee 1,566, % 2.1% 6.1% Fort Worth, Texas 2,213, % 11.1% 8.9% 3-year change: 11.3% 1-year change: 11.2% 1-year forecast: 4.2% Raleigh-Cary, N.C. 1,188, % 8.4% 6.1% Camden, N.J. 1,254, % -3.8% 7.3% Baltimore 2,753, % 2.4% 8.0% Kansas City, Mo. 2,064, % 9.1% 6.7% Edison, N.J. 2,360, % -0.8% 4.3% Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. 2,848, % -1.4% 4.8% Virginia Beach, Va. 1,694, % -3.2% 4.4% Philadelphia 4,050, % -0.3% 6.4% Hartford, Conn. 1,214, % -2.5% 8.3% New Orleans 1,205, % 6.4% 8.7% Honolulu 976, % 9.4% 8.3% Edison, N.J. 2,360, % -5.6% 2.8% reproduced in any form without express written permission. 8

9 For an expanded perspective on housing economies and property markets, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog and follow us on: CoreLogic CoreLogic Econ CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEXES Methodology THE LONGEST-STANDING, MOST HIGHLY RECOGNIZED BRAND OF HOME PRICE INDEXES CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes use the repeat sales method for index calculation, analyzing data on single-family properties that have two or more recorded sales transactions. Changes in housing types and sizes, or changes in the physical characteristics of houses are specifically excluded from the calculations to avoid incorrectly affecting the index value. The principal variable used for index calculation is the price change between two arms-length sales of the same single-family home. Sales pairs with approved data are aggregated with all other sales pairs found in a particular Census division, state, metro area, county, or ZIP code market to independently calculate each Case-Shiller index. The national index is a composite of the Case-Shiller Census division indexes. Different weights are assigned to different changes in home prices, based on their statistical distribution in that geographic region. The weighting schemes include price anomalies, high turnover frequency, time interval adjustments and initial home value. Case-Shiller Indexes include data covering thousands of ZIP codes, counties, metro areas and state markets. About CoreLogic CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in the United States and Australia. The Company s combined data from public, contributory, and proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, transportation and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in seven countries. For more information, please visit CoreLogic, the CoreLogic logo and CoreLogic Case-Shiller are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. Contact For more information, contact Dave Hurt at (dhurt@corelogic.com) or Brian Gunn at (bgunn@corelogic.com). Third 17-CSSHINDX2013Q Quarter reproduced in any form without express written permission. 9