DITKA OUTDRAWS OBERWEIS, RYAN IN HEAD-TO-HEAD AGAINST OBAMA

Transcription

1 DITKA OUTDRAWS OBERWEIS, RYAN IN HEAD-TO-HEAD AGAINST OBAMA MEN, INDYS, & VOTERS VULNERABLE TO DEFECTION IF COACH RUNS SURVEYUSA ASKED 763 REGISTERED IL VOTERS ABOUT 3 POSSIBLE GOP CHALLENGERS TO BARACK OBAMA. THOUGH IT'S UNCLEAR IF ANY WILL BE NOMINEE, HERE'S HOW THEY COMPARE: JACK RYAN LOSES TO OBAMA BY 18; JIM OBERWEIS LOSES BY 22; MIKE DITKA LOSES BY 7. DITKA GETS 56% OF VOTE, COMPARED TO 46% FOR RYAN & OBERWEIS. DITKA GETS 49% OF INDEPENDENT VOTE, COMPARED TO 35% FOR RYAN & 31% FOR OBERWEIS. DITKA GETS 53% OF VOTE, COMPARED TO 42% FOR RYAN & 39% FOR OBERWEIS. DITKA GETS 53% OF VOTE, COMPARED TO 44% FOR RYAN & 41% FOR OBERWEIS. DITKA GETS 47% OF VOTE, COMPARED TO 39% FOR RYAN & 38% FOR OBERWEIS. DITKA HOLDS 74% OF GOP BASE; RYAN HOLDS 71% OF GOP BASE, OBERWEIS HOLDS 69% OF GOP. RESEARCH CONDUCTED E.T :35-21: :34-20:46 ET RESPONDENTS DRAWN FROM THE ENTIRE STATE OF ILLINOIS RANDOM SAMPLE SELECTED BY SURVEY SAMPLING INC. RESEARCH CONDUCTED FOR WBBM-TV CHICAGO AND KSDK-TV ST. LOUIS 2004 SURVEYUSA, PROUD TO BE AMERICA'S POLLSTER PAGE 1 OF 13

2 OBAMA VS. RYAN / ALL REGISTERED ILLINOIS VOTERS IN NOVEMBER, ILLINOIS VOTERS WILL ELECT A U.S. SENATOR. CURRENTLY, THE IC CANDIDATE IS BARACK OBAMA, IT IS UNCLEAR WHO THE CANDIDATE WILL BE. I'M GOING TO ASK YOU ABOUT 3 DIFFERENT S WHO MIGHT RUN AGAINST OBAMA. FIRST... IF THERE WERE AN ELECTION FOR U.S. SENATOR FROM ILLINOIS TODAY, AND THE ONLY TWO CANDIDATES ON THE BALLOT WERE JACK RYAN AND BARACK OBAMA, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? RYAN (R) 37% OBAMA (D) 55% UNDECIDED 8% THIS IS A SURVEY OF 763 REGISTERED ILLINOIS VOTERS RESULTS CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT ±3.6% A LARGER ± APPLIES TO SUBPOPULATIONS RESULTS MAY NOT ADD TO 100%, BECAUSE PERCENTAGES ARE ROUNDED TO WHOLE NUMBERS PAGE 2 OF 13

3 OBAMA VS. OBERWEIS / ALL REGISTERED ILLINOIS VOTERS IF THERE WERE AN ELECTION FOR U.S. SENATOR FROM ILLINOIS TODAY, AND THE ONLY TWO CANDIDATES ON THE BALLOT WERE JIM OBERWEIS AND BARACK OBAMA, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? OBERWEIS (R) 35% OBAMA (D) 57% UNDECIDED 8% RESULTS MAY NOT ADD TO 100%, BECAUSE PERCENTAGES ARE ROUNDED TO WHOLE NUMBERS PAGE 3 OF 13

4 OBAMA VS. DITKA / ALL REGISTERED ILLINOIS VOTERS IF THERE WERE AN ELECTION FOR U.S. SENATOR FROM ILLINOIS TODAY, AND THE ONLY TWO CANDIDATES ON THE BALLOT WERE MIKE DITKA AND BARACK OBAMA, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? DITKA (R) 44% OBAMA (D) 51% UNDECIDED 4% RESULTS MAY NOT ADD TO 100%, BECAUSE PERCENTAGES ARE ROUNDED TO WHOLE NUMBERS PAGE 4 OF 13

5 OBAMA VS. RYAN / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY RYAN (R) 37% 42% 34% 38% 43% 29% 39% 44% 10% 27% 37% 71% 11% 35% OBAMA (D) 55% 52% 57% 53% 50% 65% 50% 46% 87% 69% 63% 22% 83% 53% UNDECIDED 8% 7% 9% 9% 7% 6% 11% 10% 3% 4% 0% 8% 5% 11% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES RYAN (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED PAGE 5 OF 13

6 OBAMA VS. RYAN / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX COOK RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY RYAN (R) 37% 44% 31% 38% 20% 35% 45% 46% 30% 42% 44% OBAMA (D) 55% 42% 63% 55% 75% 60% 48% 42% 66% 50% 39% UNDECIDED 8% 14% 6% 7% 5% 5% 7% 12% 5% 8% 17% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES RYAN (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED COOK PAGE 6 OF 13

7 OBAMA VS. OBERWEIS / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY OBERWEIS (R) 35% 39% 32% 37% 37% 27% 38% 43% 7% 15% 30% 69% 9% 31% OBAMA (D) 57% 53% 61% 58% 55% 64% 50% 47% 93% 83% 70% 21% 88% 58% UNDECIDED 8% 8% 7% 5% 7% 9% 12% 10% 1% 2% 0% 9% 3% 11% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES OBERWEIS (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED PAGE 7 OF 13

8 OBAMA VS. OBERWEIS / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX COOK RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY OBERWEIS (R) 35% 44% 32% 34% 16% 32% 42% 46% 26% 41% 41% OBAMA (D) 57% 47% 62% 58% 81% 63% 51% 42% 70% 51% 42% UNDECIDED 8% 9% 6% 8% 3% 5% 7% 12% 3% 8% 17% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES OBERWEIS (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED COOK PAGE 8 OF 13

9 OBAMA VS. DITKA / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY DITKA (R) 44% 53% 37% 44% 47% 38% 47% 53% 7% 33% 35% 74% 15% 49% OBAMA (D) 51% 44% 57% 52% 49% 58% 47% 41% 92% 62% 65% 19% 82% 47% UNDECIDED 4% 3% 6% 4% 4% 4% 6% 5% 1% 5% 0% 7% 3% 5% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES DITKA (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED PAGE 9 OF 13

10 OBAMA VS. DITKA / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX COOK RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY DITKA (R) 44% 47% 42% 44% 20% 47% 49% 56% 31% 53% 53% OBAMA (D) 51% 47% 54% 51% 78% 49% 48% 37% 66% 43% 39% UNDECIDED 4% 6% 4% 4% 2% 4% 4% 6% 3% 5% 7% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES DITKA (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED COOK PAGE 10 OF 13

11 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 NOT SURE REGISTERED RYAN (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED OBERWEIS (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED DITKA (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 48% 52% 32% 31% 21% 16% 72% 14% 10% 4% 27% 32% 25% 1% COMP. OF REG. VOTERS 100% 47% 53% 29% 30% 23% 17% 74% 14% 9% 3% 32% 37% 30% 1% 900 ILLINOIS ADULTS WERE INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 7/13-7/14. OF THEM, 763 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. GRAPHS REFLECT REGISTERED VOTERS. PAGE 11 OF 13

12 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 COOK REGISTERED RYAN (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED OBERWEIS (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED DITKA (R) OBAMA (D) UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 13% 17% 55% 25% 20% 18% 38% 38% 47% 15% COMP. OF REG. VOTERS 100% 16% 20% 65% 25% 19% 18% 38% 38% 47% 15% CAVEAT: THIS IS A POLL OF REGISTERED VOTERS, NOT LIKELY VOTERS 900 ILLINOIS ADULTS WERE INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 7/13-7/14. OF THEM, 763 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. GRAPHS REFLECT REGISTERED VOTERS. PAGE 12 OF 13

13 The following is a material part of this report and should be included when data is referenced: How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Page 1 of this report contains: the geography that was surveyed; the dates interviews were conducted; the news organization that paid for the research; and the name of the random sample provider. The universe of respondents and the margin of error are stated on Page 2 of this report, and if restated on one or more subsequent pages, it is because the universe and margin of error changed for those subsequent questions. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. PAGE 13 OF 13