TRUMP IS TOPS AS CLINTON DROPS IN CONNECTICUT PRIMARIES, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; BIDEN IS TOP VOTE-GETTER IN GENERAL ELECTION

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1 Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 13, 2015 TRUMP IS TOPS AS CLINTON DROPS IN CONNECTICUT PRIMARIES, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; BIDEN IS TOP VOTE-GETTER IN GENERAL ELECTION Donald Trump tops the pack today in a Republican presidential primary in Connecticut with 34 percent, his highest score in any Quinnipiac University state poll so far, but he trails leading Democratic contenders in general election matchups. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads the race for the Democratic nomination with 37 percent, down from 53 percent in a March 12 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 25 percent, with 18 percent for Vice President Joseph Biden and 12 percent undecided. Clinton tops the no way list as 16 percent of Democrats say they would definitely not vote for her. Dr. Ben Carson gets 14 percent of Republican primary votes in Connecticut, with 11 percent for Carly Fiorina, 7 percent for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 6 percent each for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. No other candidate tops 4 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Trump tops the GOP no way list as 25 percent say they would definitely not vote for him, followed by Bush with 22 percent who would not support him. Connecticut Republicans apparently want an outsider, as Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina lead the field and get a combined total of 59 percent of the Republican primary vote. Establishment candidates such as Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio are in single digits, said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. Secretary Hillary Clinton does especially well among Democratic women, ahead of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders by about 2-1. Sanders leads Clinton slightly among very liberal Democrats. -more-

2 Quinnipiac University Poll/October 13, 2015 page 2 Vice President Biden runs best against top Republican contenders in general election matchups in Connecticut: percent over Carson; percent over Fiorina: percent over Trump. Clinton gets 44 percent to Carson s 42 percent. She leads Fiorina percent and tops Trump percent. Sanders gets 44 percent to Carson s 41 percent. He leads Fiorina percent and beats Trump percent. Connecticut voters give Biden the best favorability rating of any presidential contender, percent. Jeb Bush gets a negative percent, among the worst scores. Favorability ratings for candidates are: Clinton: Negative percent; Trump: Negative percent; Carson: percent; Sanders: percent; Fiorina: percent. A Trump-Clinton matchup would be a battle of two negatively viewed candidates. Clinton would come out ahead but Trump is within single digits 7 points, Dr. Schwartz said. Biden is clearly a stronger general election candidate than Clinton. He would easily defeat Trump by double digits 18 points. Clinton is in a close race with both Carson and Fiorina, while Biden would defeat both of them handily. President Obama s Approval Connecticut voters give President Barack Obama a divided percent approval rating, virtually unchanged from Quinnipiac University surveys over the last 18 months. Voters oppose the nuclear deal with Iran percent and say percent that it will make the world less safe. From October 7 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,735 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 464 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 610 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information or RSS feed, visit call (203) , or follow us on 2

3 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 6% 2% 1% 5% 11% 9% 3% 6% 6% Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Jindal Kasich Pataki Paul Rubio Santorum Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA (If Registered Republican) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 22% 40% 28% 18% 20% 26% 17% 19% 24% Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Jindal Kasich Pataki Paul Rubio Santorum Trump No/No one DK/NA

4 3. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Larry Lessig, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes No Biden 18% 9% 17% 23% 21% 16% 21% 16% Chafee Clinton Lessig O'Malley Sanders Webb SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA WITHOUT BIDEN... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes No Chafee Clinton Lessig O'Malley Sanders Webb SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Recalculated matchup includes the second choice of Biden voters 4. (If Registered Democrat) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president: Biden, Chafee, Clinton, Lessig, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) REGISTERED DEMOCRATS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes No Biden 9% 6% 4% 12% 10% 8% 5% 11% Chafee Clinton Lessig O'Malley Sanders Webb No/No one DK/NA

5 5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ben Carson the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 44% 6% 87% 38% 37% 51% 48% 42% Carson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Clinton 50% 47% 44% 40% 34% 45% 40% 61% Carson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Carly Fiorina the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 45% 4% 90% 38% 39% 51% 48% 44% Fiorina SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Clinton 55% 46% 45% 39% 36% 45% 41% 65% Fiorina SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 47% 7% 88% 43% 39% 54% 53% 43% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Clinton 56% 50% 45% 42% 36% 47% 42% 69% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

6 8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Ben Carson the Republican, for whom would you vote? Biden 51% 10% 90% 48% 44% 56% 55% 48% Carson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Biden 54% 50% 50% 50% 43% 50% 47% 66% Carson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Carly Fiorina the Republican, for whom would you vote? Biden 53% 12% 92% 50% 48% 57% 57% 51% Fiorina SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Biden 65% 53% 50% 48% 46% 51% 49% 71% Fiorina SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Biden 55% 13% 92% 54% 47% 61% 62% 50% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Biden 63% 55% 52% 52% 44% 55% 50% 75% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

7 11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ben Carson the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 44% 9% 80% 41% 43% 46% 48% 42% Carson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Sanders 63% 43% 44% 37% 40% 41% 41% 60% Carson SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Carly Fiorina the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 44% 7% 78% 43% 43% 45% 46% 43% Fiorina SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Sanders 63% 41% 43% 38% 40% 42% 41% 58% Fiorina SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 49% 12% 83% 47% 45% 53% 55% 45% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Sanders 67% 48% 47% 42% 41% 47% 44% 69% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA

8 Q Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable). REGISTERED VOTERS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Biden Sanders Carson Fiorina Kasich Rubio Webb O'Malley Lessig Gilmore Chafee Clinton Christie Jindal Pataki Bush Cruz Trump Huckabee Paul Santorum Graham REPUBLICANS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Carson Rubio Fiorina Trump Christie Cruz Kasich Huckabee Jindal Bush Santorum Paul Pataki Gilmore Graham DEMOCRATS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Biden Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Lessig

9 14. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 42% 5% 84% 34% 31% 51% 46% 39% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 41% 46% 41% 39% 29% 45% 38% 59% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 39% 70% 13% 40% 44% 35% 42% 38% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 31% 34% 45% 45% 47% 39% 43% 26% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 37% 70% 12% 37% 42% 33% 30% 42% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 22% 36% 44% 40% 45% 39% 42% 21% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

10 17. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 56% 27% 86% 55% 52% 61% 61% 54% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 55% 57% 56% 58% 49% 55% 53% 73% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 39% 17% 59% 37% 42% 36% 47% 34% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 53% 39% 36% 34% 41% 37% 39% 40% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 33% 62% 14% 29% 35% 31% 38% 29% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Favorable 14% 30% 38% 41% 38% 34% 36% 21% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

11 20. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 33% 50% 22% 32% 35% 31% 37% 30% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 37% 59% 20% 37% 41% 35% 38% 36% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 23% 52% 4% 20% 28% 18% 23% 23% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jim Gilmore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 3% 2% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 4% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 9% 16% 5% 8% 8% 9% 10% 8% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

12 25. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 23% 46% 9% 22% 23% 23% 24% 23% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Bobby Jindal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 17% 31% 6% 14% 24% 11% 20% 15% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 22% 31% 16% 23% 27% 18% 26% 20% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 13% 16% 15% 10% 18% 9% 15% 12% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 20% 31% 5% 23% 28% 13% 19% 21% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

13 30. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 33% 67% 9% 31% 40% 26% 38% 29% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 16% 35% 6% 15% 22% 12% 18% 15% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 5% 2% 9% 4% 5% 4% 8% 3% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Larry Lessig favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 8% 3% 14% 7% 11% 6% 9% 7% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

14 35. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 6% 5% 8% 6% 9% 4% 10% 4% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Approve 48% 5% 89% 44% 43% 51% 51% 46% Disapprove DK/NA Approve 63% 51% 44% 38% 37% 44% 41% 74% Disapprove DK/NA (If Registered Democrat) Which Democratic candidate for President would do the best job reducing economic inequality in the country Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, or Joe Biden? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Yes No Sanders 39% 63% 45% 27% 51% 32% 47% 33% Clinton Biden DK/NA Do you support or oppose the nuclear deal with Iran? Support 28% 6% 53% 24% 33% 23% 38% 22% Oppose DK/NA Support 37% 25% 27% 28% 31% 24% 27% 32% Oppose DK/NA

15 71. Do you think the nuclear deal with Iran would make the world safer or less safe? Safer 30% 6% 57% 25% 33% 28% 38% 25% Less safe DK/NA Safer 48% 26% 28% 27% 31% 27% 29% 36% Less safe DK/NA

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