Mark Warner has high approval ratings, leads Ed Gillespie by 20 points; Bob McDonnell s approval ratings drop after federal indictment

Transcription

1 January 23, 2014 Mark Warner has high approval ratings, leads Ed Gillespie by 20 points; Bob McDonnell s approval ratings drop after federal indictment Summary of Key Findings 1. U.S. Sen. Mark Warner enjoys strong job approval ratings from Virginia voters, but only half say they would reelect him today. 2. While former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie is the best known of the three Republicans running for U.S. Senate, all three are mostly unknown to Virginia voters. 3. Bob McDonnell leaves office with 57% approval rating, but federal corruption charges hurt his final standing among Virginia voters. For Further Information Contact: Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director McMurran Hall 264 Office (757) Wason Center for Public Policy Christopher Newport University Mobile (757) qkidd@cnu.edu Newport News, VA

2 Analysis 2014 U.S. Senate Race While Mark Warner enjoys strong approval from registered Virginia voters for the job he is doing as U.S. Senator, only 50% of them say they would vote for him if the election were held today. Overall, Warner enjoys a 63% approval rating, while 26% say they disapprove of the job he is doing, and 12% are uncertain or refuse to say. While 56% of voters say that Warner deserves reelection, only 50% say they would vote for him in a head-to-head matchup with the best-known Republican challenger, former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie. With Warner and Gillespie identified by party, Gillespie gets 30% of the vote, while 20% say they either plan to vote for someone else, are undecided, or don t know. The odds heavily favor Senator Warner, but he clearly has work to do to make the case to voters between now and November, said Dr. Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center for Public Policy. The Wason Center for Public Policy poll of 1,023 registered voters was taken Jan The survey s total margin of error is +/- 3.1 at the 95% level of confidence. The Republican field in the 2014 Senate contest is mostly unknown to Virginia voters at this point. Gillespie has the highest approval rating -- at a miniscule 10%, with 69% of registered voters saying they don t know enough about him to have an opinion. The other two Republicans who have announced their candidacies, Shak Hill and Howie Lind, fare even worse, with only a 2% favorable rating each; 80% of registered voters say they have no opinion of Hill and 79% say they have no opinion of Lind. This survey has both good news and warning signs for Mark Warner, said Kidd. On the one hand, Virginia voters strongly approve of the job he is doing in the U.S. Senate, and a majority think he deserves reelection. On the other hand, only half of them say they would vote to reelect him if the election were held today. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as U.S. Senator? Approve 63 Disapprove 26 Don t know (vol) 12 Do you think Mark Warner deserves to be reelected to the U.S. Senate? Yes 56 Not sure (vol) 10 No 29 Refused (vol) 5 2

3 If the election were held TODAY would you vote for [Randomize: Ed Gillespie the Republican and Mark Warner the Democrat ]? RV n=1023 Dem Rep Ind Male Female White Black Warner Gillespie Someone else (vol) Undecided /Dk (vol) Several people have either announced or are considering running for U.S. Senate in Please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion, or if you don t know. Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Dk/ref (vol) Gillespie Hill Lind Bob McDonnell Approval Pre- and Post-Federal Indictment Bob McDonnell, who is less than two weeks into private life, leaves office with a 57% approval rating, while 32% of voters saying they disapprove of the job he did as governor over the last four years, and 11% saying they are uncertain. This survey was in the field for six days prior to the federal indictment of the former governor and his wife, Maureen, and two days after the indictments were handed down. The margin of error increases by dividing the sample, but the indictments appear to have had an effect on voters approval of the former governor: McDonnell s approval prior to the indictments stood at 59%, but dropped 10% in the two days of surveying after the indictments were reported, to 49%. Bob McDonnell left office on a positive note, having won praise from members of the McAuliffe administration for his handling of the transition and the smooth transfer of power. The indictment clearly reminded voters of the scandal that had overshadowed his last year in office, said Kidd. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell has handled his job as Governor over the last four years? Overall Pre- Indictment Post- Indictment Approve Disapprove Don t know (vol)

4 The Wason Center January 2014 Virginia Survey Field Dates: Jan registered voters Overall margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% level of confidence Numbers are percentages; columns may not sum to 100 due to rounding (Questions not reported here are held for future release) Q3: As you know, Bob McDonnell s term as Governor of Virginia has just ended in the last few days. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell has handled his job as Governor over the last four years? [INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE ( DON T KNOW, DEPENDS, NOT SURE, ETC.) PROBE ONCE WITH: OVERALL do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell has handled his job as Governor? IF STILL UNSURE ENTER AS DON T KNOW] Overall Pre Post Indictment Indictment 1. Approve Disapprove Dk/ref (vol) Q5: Ok, thanks. Virginia will have an election for the U.S. Senate in The current holder of that office is Mark Warner. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as U.S. Senator? [INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE ( DON T KNOW, DEPENDS, NOT SURE, ETC.) PROBE ONCE WITH: OVERALL do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as U.S. Senator? IF STILL UNSURE ENTER AS DON T KNOW] Approve 63 Disapprove 26 Dk/ref (vol) 12 Q6: Do you think Mark Warner deserves to be reelected to the U.S. Senate? Yes 56 Not sure (vol) 10 No 29 Refused (vol.) 5 Q7: Several people have either announced they are running or are considering running for U.S. Senate in As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them, or if you don t know enough about them to have an opinion. Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Dk/ref (vol) Ed Gillespie Shak Hill Howie Lind Q10: And thinking about that 2014 election for U.S. Senate if the election were held TODAY would you vote for [RANDOMIZE: Ed Gillespie the Republican and Mark Warner the Democrat ]? [INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE ( DON T KNOW, DEPENDS, NOT SURE, ETC.) PROBE ONCE WITH: Which one are you leaning toward right now?] Warner 50 Gillespie 30 Someone else (vol) 2 Undecided/Dk (vol) 18 4

5 DEMOGRAPHICS EDUC: High school or less 15 Some college 20 Vocational or technical training 4 College graduate 33 Graduate study or more 28 Dk/ref (vol) HISPANIC: Yes 3 No 97 Dk/ref (vol) RACE: White 70 Black or African American 20 Other 10 PARTYID: Democrat 34 Republican 30 Independent 31 Othe/Dk (vol) 5 AGE: < 43 TEAPARTY: Yes 23 No 73 Dk/ref (vol) 4 INCOME: Under $25,000 6 $25-$39,999 9 $40-$49,999 6 $50-$74, $75-$99, $100,000-$124,999 9 $125,000-$149,999 6 Over $150, Dk/ref (vol) 18 SEX: Male 46 Female 54 5

6 How the survey was conducted: The results of this poll are based on 1,023 interviews of registered Virginia voters, conducted Jan , The margin of error for the whole survey is +/- 3.1% at the 95% level of confidence. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. The response rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 22%. Four callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at Christopher Newport University. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on sex, age, race and region of residence to reflect as closely as possible the demographic composition of registered voters in Virginia. The survey was designed by Dr. Quentin Kidd of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University 6