The Oil Market: From Boom to Gloom
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1 The Oil Market: From Boom to Gloom Mine Yücel Senior Vice President and Director of Research April 8, 216
2 Nominal price, $, weekly Oil and gas prices plunge 12 1 Oil price $ Natural gas price* $ NOTE: * = Natural gas price is multiplied by 1. Oil is priced in $/barrel while natural gas is $/MMBtu. SOURCES: Energy Information Administration; Wall Street Journal.
3 Current oil prices not a record low Real prices of crude oil (January 216 dollars) Dollars per barrel Refiners' acquisition cost of crude SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Energy Information Administration; FRB Dallas calculations.
4 Supply/demand mismatch Million barrels per day Million barrels per day 1 Implied change in inventories 4 Petroleum consumption 95 Petroleum production 3 9 Forecasts SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
5 IMPACT ON U.S. ECONOMY
6 Million barrels per day 12 1 Shale boosts U.S. oil production mb/d SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
7 Thousand barrels per day 4, 3,5 U.S. shale oil production Texas 3,365 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Jan 21 1,591 Kansas Montana Utah Colorado Wyoming New Mexico Oklahoma Jan 216 North Dakota 1, Jan 21 Jan 216 1,98 Jan 21 Jan 216 SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
8 Rig count plunges, oil production drops Million barrels per day Rig count 1,7 1, Crude oil production U.S. oil rig count Latest estimate 9.2 mb/d (Mar 25) 1,3 1, Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 3 SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
9 Bln chained 29 $ Drilling investment falls with rig count Private fixed investment in mining/exploration U.S. rig count OPEC decision Rig count 2,2 2, 1, Investment in mining/exploration 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Bureau of Economic Analysis.
10 Low oil prices boosted growth in final demand Contribution to real growth, percentage points, SAAR 4 Components of final demand 3 213:Q1-214:Q :Q3-215:Q Final demand Personal consumption Residential investment NOTE: Components do not sum exactly to final demand due to rounding. SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Business fixed investment Government Net exports
11 Households benefit from low energy prices Contribution to real growth, percentage points, SAAR 4 and a strong dollar Components of final demand :Q1-214:Q2 214:Q3-215:Q Final demand Personal consumption Residential investment Business fixed investment Government Net exports NOTE: Components do not sum exactly to final demand due to rounding. SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
12 Mining & manufacturing firms have scaled back cap-ex plans, and investment growth has slowed Contribution to real growth, percentage points, SAAR Components of final demand :Q1-214:Q2 214:Q3-215:Q Final demand Personal consumption Residential investment Business fixed investment Government Net exports NOTE: Components do not sum exactly to final demand due to rounding. SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
13 IMPACT ON STATE ECONOMIES
14 Low oil prices benefit most states (Effect of a 5% decline in oil prices on employment) SOURCE: The Shale Gas and Tight Oil Boom: U.S. States Economic Gains and Vulnerabilities, by Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine K. Yücel, Council on Foreign Relations, Energy Brief, Oct. 213.
15 Energy states did well in 214 Percent Change (Dec/Dec) Texas U.S NV ND CO TX FL GA OR UT WA CA SC DE MA TN ID NC U.S. AR AZ RI LA OK MI NY OH KY WY WI NM INIL MO MD AL PA MN SD KS CT NJ NH IA NE MS VA ME MT HI VT AK WV SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
16 Percent Change (Dec/Dec) Energy states lose jobs in 215 U.S. ID UT FL OR AZ CA TN CO GA SC WA VA DE NV AR HI NJ NC U.S. KY MI IN MD NH NE MN TX OH MS NY MT IA MA RI SD WI AL VT IL MO PA CT ME NM KS AK OK LA WV WY ND Texas SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
17 Rig count 1, Texas rig count and oil production continue to decline Million barrels per day Texas oil production Texas rig count SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
18 Regional breakeven prices vary (2% rate of return) Sum of WTI Break-Even $9 $8 $83 $78 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $3 $3 $31 $35 $36 $37 $39 $39 $4 $4 $41 $42 $43 $46 $47 $47 $5 $51 $51 $51 $53 $54 $55 $58 $61 $64 $64 $64 $66 $69 $69 Play Eagle Ford Spraberry Wolfcamp $2 Bone Spring Wolfbone $1 $ Spraberry - Midland (TX) Spraberry - Martin (TX) Eagle Ford - DeWitt (TX) Wolfcamp - Reeves (TX) Bone Spring - Ward (TX) Spraberry - Glasscock (TX) Spraberry - Howard (TX) Wolfbone - Reeves (TX) Wolfcamp - Loving (TX) Bone Spring - Loving (TX) Eagle Ford - Karnes (TX) Wolfbone - Play Average Bone Spring - Play Average Bone Spring - Eddy (NM) Wolfcamp - Ward (TX) Bone Spring - Lea (NM) Spraberry - Play Average Eagle Ford - Gonzales (TX) Spraberry - Andrews (TX) Spraberry - Upton (TX) Eagle Ford - Play Average Spraberry - Reagan (TX) Eagle Ford - Live Oak (TX) Wolfcamp - Play Average Eagle Ford - Zavala (TX) Eagle Ford - Atascosa (TX) Eagle Ford - LaSalle (TX) Eagle Ford - McMullen (TX) Spraberry - Irion (TX) Eagle Ford - Lavaca (TX) Wolfcamp - Reagan (TX) Eagle Ford - Dimmit (TX) Wolfcamp - Irion (TX) Play/County SOURCE: Bloomberg.
19 Rig counts still falling Rig count, weekly 24 Texas 2 16 Oklahoma Louisiana 12 8 North Dakota Rig count, weekly 1, NOTE: Last data point is April 1. SOURCE: Baker Hughes.
20 Index, Jan. 5 '13 = 1, 4 WMA Initial jobless claims still high North Dakota Oklahoma Texas Louisiana U.S SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
21 Percent 8 7 Some states rely heavily on oil and gas severance taxes 72.4 (Share of 214 state tax revenues) % Taxes Collected AK ND WY NM TX LA OK CO CA SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 214 Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections.
22 WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
23 Much uncertainty in crude price forecasts Dollars per barrel 12 Historical spot price STEO price forecast 1 NYMEX futures price 95% NYMEX futures confidence interval Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
24 Outlook Lower for longer outlook for oil prices Oil demand growth is expected to rise over time Oil price risks : Downside risks: China, Iran, high inventories Upside risks: Geopolitical turmoil, low investment, Production freeze Energy importers such as the U.S. should continue to benefit from lower oil prices. Rough patch for energy-producing countries and states. Reform makes Mexican energy sector more open and nimble Increased opportunities for energy partnership
25 The Oil Market: From Boom to Gloom Mine Yücel Senior Vice President and Director of Research
26 Billion cubic feet per day 9 Gas production still robust Rig count 1, Marketed natural gas production 1, Gas rig count SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
27 Households benefit from low energy prices Contribution to real growth, percentage points, SAAR Components of final demand :Q1-214:Q2 214:Q3-215:Q Final demand Personal consumption Residential investment Business fixed investment Government Net exports NOTE: Components do not sum exactly to final demand due to rounding. SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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