DRAFT GENERAL PLAN OF NATIONAL ENERGY

Transcription

1 DRAFT GENERAL PLAN OF NATIONAL ENERGY Delivered at the Annual Meeting of the National Energy Management Jakarta, 3 Desember 2012 DATA AND INFORMATION CENTER OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

2 National Energy Council Duty : To design and formulate policy of national energy (KEN) To stipulate General Plan of National Energy (RUEN) Government Duty : To set National Energy Policy (KEN) with Parliament s approval To prepare RUEN based on KEN Local Government Duty BACKGROUND (1/2) Based on Law No.30/2007 on Energy National Energy Policy (KEN) is a policy of management for establishment of energy independence and national energy security with the principal of equitable, sustainable and environmentally friendly. National Energy General Plan (RUEN) is an energy management plan in a region at the national, provincial, or district/city level is Energy Plan (RUEN) is an energy management plan in a region at the national, provincial, or district / city To prepare General Plan of Local Energy (RUED) based on RUEN To set RUED in form of Local Government Regulation

3 Current Status BACKGROUND (2/2) Guidelines for Preparation of RUEN and Document of RUEN is in progress phase, waiting for KEN to issue RUEN is included as one of Action Plans of MEMR observed by UKP4 in Achievement up to B09 is Blue. To obtain input and opinion in the preparation of RUEN, series of meeting have been carried out with : Related Ministries and stakeholders Local government in corridor of Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Jawa, Bali- Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku-Papua

4 IN PROGRES PREPARTION OF RUEN GUIDELINES AND RUEN (1/2) Guidelines of RUEN, a manual for implementation in term of RUEN preparation in charge of technical and non technical aspect Guideline Systematic of RUEN General Rules; Objective and Target; Preparation of RUEN/RUED-TP/RUED-TK; Closing RUEN is the elaboration and implementation plan of KEN in the form of target achievement phasing of KEN Systematic of RUEN Introduction; Present and future energy condition; Vision and mission of energy management; Policy and strategy of energy management; Closing.

5 N O DATE 9 Feb June 2010, IN-PROGRES PREPARATION OF RUEN GUIDELINES AND RUEN (1/2) PROCESS OF PREPARATION OF RUEN GUIDELINES Discussion on Guidelines for Preparation of RUEN with Unit within MEMR Minister of MEMR sends letter to President RI, concerning on Request for Approval of Preparation on Draft of President Regulation RE MA RK Oct 2010 Secretary of Cabinet RI states that the preparation of President Regulation requires consideration on the completion of Draft of KEN 4. NO. 25 July 2012 DATE FGD in term of discussion of President Regulation Draft for Guidelines of RUEN Preparation, together with Secretary of Cabinet, Ministry of Law and Human PROCESS OF PREPATION OF RUEN MODEL Right as well as MEMR units remar k UKP4 sets RUEN as one of indicators or assessment from MEMR for year May 2012, 3. 3 July 2012 Center for Data and Information has sent letter to Head of Planning Bureaus, on report of the implementation of President Instruction on Acceleration Implementation of National Development Priority Year (B04) Center for Data and Information has sent letter to Head of Planning Bureaus, on report of the implementation of President Instruction on Acceleration Implementation of National Development Priority Year 2012 (B06) Center for Data and Information has sent letter to Head of Planning Bureaus, on report of the 4. 4 Oct implementation of President Instruction on Acceleration Implementation of National Development Priority Year 2012 (B09) Blue Blue Blue

6 RUEN MODEL (1/2) Structure of Model and Software Prediction of energy need Supply of primary energy Emission calculation Investment need

7 RUEN MODEL (2/2) BASIC PARAMETER SCENARIO PDB Growth Population Growth Size of Household Distribution of Population Average 8-9% per annum up to 2025 Average 0,99% per annum up to persons per household in year % (urban) : 32% (rural) in 2025 General Administration Bureau (BaU) Without any intervention in term of energy policy KEN With intervention of policy at supply side and energy need in fulfilling national target

8 RESULT (1/6) Juta TOE Final Energy Need per Sector Non energy use Others Commercial Transportation Households Final Energy need in 2025 to reach at 406,15 MTOE, increase averagely 6,9% per year Industry becomes biggest user sector which is 59%, transportation (21%), household (12%), the rest comersial sector (3%), other sector (3%) and non energy use (2%).

9 RESULT (2/6) Final Energy Need per Energy Type The need of fuel oil, coal, gas and electricity cumulatively will increase 3,4 times. The need of new and renewable energy predicted increase 1,4 times during Fuel oil still remained as dominant energy reaches to aroud 29,5%, coal 21,3%, and gas 20,6% Electricity need per capita in 2025 reaches to 1.893,3 Kwh per capita. Target of KEN Kwh per capita

10 RESULT (3/6) Increasing Capacity for Power Plant Penambahan Kapasitas Pembangkit Listrik PLT EBT= New Renewable Energy Power Plant Batubara= Coal Gas = Gas Minyak= Oil Capacity of generation in 2025 predicted to achieve 126,75 GW Capacity of generation of EBT predicted to increase up to 34,6% in 2025 if the available geothermal and water resources can be optimized Capacity of oil generation in 2025 diminish around 3 GW

11 RESULT (4/6) Electricity Production based on Generation type Composition of Generation Based on Fuel Production of power to increase from 170 TWH in 2010 to become 585 TWH Growth of power production in average 8,6% per annum The need of coal for power plant to achieve 49,5% of total need of fuel million TOE

12 RESULT (5/6) Potency of CO2 Emission Reduction 35,6 4 In year 2020, potency of CO2 Emission reduction predicted to achive 29,9 million ton, less than set target for energy sector in National Action Plan of Greenhouse CO2 Emission Reduction or RAN GRK at 39 million ton.

13 RESULT (6/6) KEN 2025 RUEN In 2025, KEN has target of primary energy provision to achive at 400 MTOE with composition of : -Minyak (oil) 100 MTOE -Gas (gas) 80 MTOE -Batubara (coal) 120 MTOE -EBT (new renewable energy) 100 MTOE In 2025, primary energy supply predicted to achieve at 522,7 MTOE with composition of : -Minyak 153 MTOE -Gas 122 MTOE -Batubara 163 MTOE -EBT 115 MTOE

14 CONCLUSION Final energy need in 2025 predicted to increase up to 2,7 times compared today, with average growth 6,9% per annum Domination of oil in final energy to decrease at 29,5% in The role of coal and gas to increase at 21,3% and 20,6% At Power plant, role of coal and geothermal will be very dominant up to 84% of total need of fuel in generation sector. The use of new and renewable energy is required to increase by increasing the use of non-conventional technology such as nuclear, coal liquifaction, coal gasification To reduce oil role in energy mix, it is expected by developing mass transport, development of fuel gas, biofuel, and creating conducive investment climate for geothermal

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