Hydrological Forecasting and Decision Making in Australia
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1 Hydrological Forecasting and Decision Making in Australia Chris Leahy HyFS Modelling Unit Manager Flood Forecasting and Warning Australian Bureau of Meteorology
2 The simple facts for Australia Floods cause more damage than any other natural disaster Floods kill more people than an other natural disaster apart from heatwave Floods have the highest preventable damage ratio of any other natural disaster Improving flood forecasting and warning offers great cost/benefits
3 The Bureau of Meteorology Flood Warning Centres in each state/territory Head office in Melbourne Growing office in Canberra (Australian Capital) About 1500 staff 37 flood forecasters 54 total in Flood Warning and Forecasting Evolving organisation Not just weather forecasting Water Program, Environment Program, Observations, Research
4 Flood Warning in Australia Australian Rainfall (and flooding) is highly variable Can change from dry to wet rapidly Flooding can occur any time of the year tropical systems in summer, mid-latitude systems all year around
5 Australian flood warning network River gauges ~ 2600 (5 per cent Bureau) Rain gauges ~ 4100 (50 per cent Bureau)
6 HyFS Business Drivers Efficient, robust and sustainable flood warning service National system with service delivery from regional and national offices Meets operational best practice highly available, reviews of decision making Better use of numerical rainfall forecasts NexGen (GFE), ACCESS, ECMWF Supports current forecasting techniques URBS, SWIFT, Peak Heights, Realises benefits from investment in R&D can evolve to utilise new advances Supports collaboration with forecasting agencies in Australia and overseas
7 HyFS Timeline Stage 1 Requirements and Procurement (2012) Stage 2 HyFS Functional System (2013) Stage 3 HyDS National Data System (2013/14) Stage 4 Model Migration and Integration (2014) Stage 5 Operational Cutover (2015) Metadata Management System Stage 6 Services, Sustainment and Efficiency HyFS 2020 T 0
8 HyFS HyDS - A national hydrological data collection system HyFS - A national hydrological forecasting system Rain and river observations Radar rainfall NWP and GFE rainfall forecasts Tide and ocean forecasts HyDS HyFS Product generation Forecaster Public Partner agencies Archiving
9 HyDS a National Data Collection System HyDS is the real-time data collection system for the flood warning network 24/7 support with full end-to-end disaster recovery High performance: provision of rainfall and river observations in near real time (~1 min) Manages data delivery to HyFS: rainfall and river observations, NWPs, NexGenFWS, radar rainfields, OceanMaps, tidal forecasts HyDS data manager
10 NWP and NexGen Rainfall forecasts Bureau's ACCESS Rainfall Models: ACCESS C, ACCESS R, ACCESS G Poor Man's Ensemble ECMWF NexGen forecasts Mean, 50%, 25% and 10% precipitation forecasts
11 Radar Rainfall Gauge-corrected radar rainfall Radar Nowcasts
12 Forecast process in HyFS 1. Situational Awareness 2. QC input Data 3. Run hydrological models interactive hydrological forecasting. 4. Set rainfall policy a combination of observed rainfall, manual methods and NWP products. 5. Run ensemble rainfall comparison to check your rainfall policy. Save as Final Run 6. Peak height relationships 7. Historical floods 8. Issue official forecast
13 Flood Forecasting Models In HyFS WA 4 Catchment NSW - 51 Catchment SA 5 Catchments TAS - 10 Catchments QLD 44 Catchments VIC 20 Catchments NT 7 Catchments AUST 141 Catchments
14 Event based URBS models Large catchments are modelled by linking models together Can force model to use observed flows Flood Modelling
15 Sea Level Forecasts Recent Tidal Event for Sydney Sea Level forecasts are the downstream boundary condition for our hydrological models.
16 Model Ensemble Comparison Run
17 Short-Term (7 day) Streamflow Forecasts Uses SWIFT (GR4H) Hydrological Model developed by CSIRO as part of WIRADA, with forecast rainfall from ACCESS-G. Fully automated with no forecaster intervention. Public product More detailed service for specific customers Provides streamflow forecasts at 92 locations (61 Catchments).
18 Seven Day Streamflow Forecasts
19 Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts RPP Rainfall (100 Members) Streamflow forecast
20 HyFS Archive Meet statutory requirements: Simulations Forecaster notes, run information etc. Post-flood activities: Forecasting performance Check and recalibrate models Automated report generation Saving reports to the archive Training: HyFS - Water Coach Scenarios Flood operations: Access to archived reports and historical events Bureau of Meteorology archives. Transfer from Cards to Tape in the 1970s
21 Post-flood performance Performance reports show model simulations against the observed data. They show issued forecasts as a flood performance plot and performance statistics Additional comments can be included before it is stored in the archive for future reference.
22 Water Coach: hydrological forecasting simulator Simulates the stresses and time pressures of a warning centre, but in a low-stakes environment Can supports different learning objectives: How to use the GUI Forecasting build knowledge of the catchment, understand how well the model works Communication focus on procedures and interacting with meteorologists, emergency services and media Real life: forecasting + communication + time pressure
23 Water Coach: Hides observations in the future
24 Water Coach: Forecast Demonstration Project Using Ensemble Rainfall Forecasts with HyFS for the Forecast Demonstration Project in Sydney.
25 What's Next HyFS Stage 6 (2015/16) HyFS Metadata Manager Links to points of truth elsewhere in the Bureau Ability to extend to support future FFW services Operational improvements identified in first year of operations HyFS 2020 ( ) Developing the capability of HyFS to deliver products and services Further Products - Scenarios, Alerting and Flash Flood Guidance Enterprise Archiving Solution for FFW Observation Data
26 Australian FEWS User Community Australian FEWS User Days (April 2015)
27 Chris Leahy Questions?
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