End to End Multi Hazard Early Warning Systems By Curt Barrett Hydrometeorological Consultant

Transcription

1 End to End Multi Hazard Early Warning Systems By Curt Barrett Hydrometeorological Consultant Disaster Risk Management- East Asia and Pacific Experts Roundtable on Urban Flood Risk Management March 17, World Bank HQ

2 Impacts of Disasters Indian Ocean Tsunami Hurricane Katrina Damage Monterey Mexico 2010

3 Billions of USD per decade Geological Hydrometeorological Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up decade Millions of casualties per decade Geological hile casualties elated to hydrometeorological disasters are decreasing Hydrometeorological Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database decade

4 Figure 3: Number of disasters attributed to floods, Source: EM-DAT: OFDA/CRED

5 Figure 6. Number of people killed in floods, , by income class Upper middle income: 40,930(23%) High income: 2,589 (1%) Low income: 84,710 (50%) Lower middle income: 46,105 (26%) Source: ADRC, EM-DAT: OFDA/CRED

6 End-to-End Forecast Process Flood Mitigation and Integrated Water Management Data Communication Decision Support Notify Forecast Coordinate Action s

7 WMO Coordinates a Global Network for Monitoring, Detection and Forecasting of Hazards Operated by National Meteorological Services Global Observing System 1 3 National Meteorological & Hydrological Services 2 Global Data Processing and Forecasting Global Telecommunication System

8 EVOLUTION of HYDROMET SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGIES Data Systems- Climate, weather and water networks, Radar and Satellite Systems Technologies to cover the White Spot GeoSpatial Data GIS Forecast and Warning Systems Global Flash Flood Warning System Systems to forecast floods and manage water 8

9 For a Warning to be Effective MAXIMIZE LEAD TIME MUST BE ACCURATE SYSTEM MUST BE RELIABLEl. 7x24 WARNING MESSAGE MUST BE CLEAR

10 Real Time Hydromet Measurements

11 Precipitation (rain & snow) Moving to Modern Real-time Hydromet Systems Data Transmission (e.g. Satellite, Fixed-line/ Cellphone, Radio Telemetry) Reservoir Levels Internet/ Intranet Data Generation River Stage/Discharge/ Sediment Data Visualization & Use

12 Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time (ALERT) Stilling Well Radio Remote Site Radio Repeater Decoder Receiver Base Station

13 Flash Flood modeling Approaches ALERT - Automated Community Systems Self Help Community Warning Systems Flash Flood Guidance Distributed hydrologic models

14 Design Concept for GFFS Primary Target: Developing Countries with no resources to develop flash flood warning capability and countries with no flash flood warning/response procedures Funding Consortium: Private and Public Donors Global Data and Communications Operational Global Data Ingest and QC Regional Center 1 Regional Center 2 Regional Center N Regional Hydromet Analysis Alert Communications to Countries Regional Training Regional Validation Country 1.1 Country 1.2 Country 2.1 Country 2.2 Country N.1 Country N.2 Country Hydromet Analysis Country Modifications Local Warnings/Watches Country Validation Feedback to Regional Level Country 1.M1 Country 2.M2 Country N.MN

15 Regional Warning System HRC/WMO/11/05/07 15

16 Hydro-met Data AVNHEWS Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Sub-System SIATA Observation Tower Other Sub- Systems Emergency Mgmt Radar Network Gauge Network Archives Hydro-Met Information Processor Forecasting Models CLOPADs RED RIESGOS Environmental Quality Satellite Debris Flow Models Flash Flood Guidance NWS River Forecasting System RED AIRE Geotechnical GEO RED Historical Data Hazard Warnings Hydro-power Production Others?

17 Visualization and Public Access is Key Streamflow Reservoirs Precipitation Forecasts

18 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Flood Forecast Mapping VISUALIZING FLOOD

19 Disseminating Forecasts to Users Users Public Emergency Management Private Sector Government Agencies Academia Methods NOAA Weather Radio NOAAPORT Weather Wire Internet Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN)

20 Concept of Operations

21 Summary All components of an End to End Warning and Response System must be fully functional and engaged to save lives An End to End System is as effective as its weakest Link An End to End System consists of Science & models, Data and Technology and Forecaster Expertise-- The CONOPS Defines How the system will function to save lives and property

22 Summary Coordination between The NMHS and the Disaster Management organizations (National and local) and the Media is critical-- for successful Operations. Relationships and people is the glue to make the end to end system function properly A CONOPS is the vision for sucess

23 THANK YOU