International Food Price Rises and Food Security in PNG

Transcription

1 PNG Update International Food Price Rises and Food Security in PNG Bryant Allen Department of Human Geography, RSPAS College of Asia and the Pacific 4 June 2008

2 International rice trends in rice and wheat World Price (US$/tonne) RICE: increased by 50% between 2001 and 2008; increased by 12% between 1996 and / / / / / /97 Wheat 1998/99 Rice 2000/ / / /07 WHEAT: increased by 60% between 2001 and 2008; increased by 30% between 1995 and 2008; US Dept of Economics, Statistics and Market Information System <

3 Imports to PNG, , , , ,000 50, Wheat Rice From 1998 to 2007, PNG imported: 150,000 t/yr of rice* 130,000 t/yr of wheat * In 1997, during the ENSO induced food shortages, rice imports were 207,690 tonnes

4 Source of calories in PNG diets Rural population Imported Urban population Domestic Rural people comprise about 85% of the total population.

5 Food consumption in rural and urban areas 1996 (kg/person/yr) Rural Urban Pork Fruit Sago Rice (imported) Aibika Betel nut Sweet potato Betel nut Sugarcane Soft drink Bread Mutton Rice (imported) Cassava Chicken Yam Sugarcane Coconut Other greens Flour Aibika Beer Fruit Other greens Banana Coconut Fish Taro & Chinese taro Banana Taro & Chinese taro Sago Sw eet potato (Food categories greater than 10 kg/person/yr) Gibson, J. (2001). The economic and nutritional importance of household food production in PNG. In Bourke, R.M., Allen, M.G. and Salisbury, J.G. (eds). Food Security for Papua New Guinea. Proceedings of the Papua New Guinea Food and Nutrition 2000 Conference. ACIAR Proceedings No. 99. Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, Canberra. pp

6 Imported food has a nutritional importance in rural areas Before the introduction of the cash economy, the nutritional status of PNG populations was vulnerable. Many people had low intakes of energy and protein, and as a consequence infant, child and maternal mortality was high, and adult stature small. Daily intake of nutrients as a proportion of minimum daily requirements (%), 1947 Place Calories % Protein % Salamaua Markham Wau Trobriands Hipsley, E.H and Clements, F.W. (1947) Report of the New Guinea Nutrition Survey Expedition. Department of External Affairs, Canberra. 142, Table 13.

7 It has happened before: previous food price rises The collapse in the value of the kina in from around 1993 resulted in a 200% increase in the PNG price of imported foods by 2002.

8 Fall in value of kina increased the price of imported foods Figure Average retail price of rice in Port Moresby and Madang, Toea/kg Port Moresby Madang Year

9 What did these price rises do to consumption of imported food? Figure Average per capita rice imports and growth trends by decade, coffee price rise Per capita imports (kg/person/yea annual grow th rate 6.3% frost and drought annual grow th rate 5.2% annual grow th rate 1.7% annual grow th rate 0.04% 1997 frost and drought annual grow th rate 0.9% Year Since around 1990, per annum per capita consumption of imported food has fallen or remained steady. Gibson, J. (2001). Rice demand in Papua New Guinea. Pacific Economic Bulletin 16(2):27-35, updated to 2005.

10 Figure Average per person wheat imports and growth trends by decade, Volume (kg/person/yea annual grow th rate 12.8% annual grow th rate 3.5% annual grow th rate 5.7% annual grow th rate 0.9% annual grow th rate 2.9% Year Australian Government Wheat Export Authority

11 Rural food in urban markets About 4,000 tonnes of sweet potato is shipped annually from the highlands to Port Moresby. This trade alone is worth K2 5 million per year. Rural food replaces imports and is cheaper. Fresh food sales redistribute money from urban to rural areas fresh food sales provide income to the greatest number of rural people. The major constraints to urban marketing are poor transport infrastructure, lack of middlemen, lack of proper facilities, lack of working capital, poor information, law and order problems.

12 Increases in the price of imported food results in increases to the price of the domestically produced staple Price of sweet potato in urban markets Port Moresby and Madang, Highlands suppliers were able to use roads to meet the demand in Madang, but not in Port Moresby, which is not connected by road to the highlands.

13 Sweet potato supply in the highlands also influences the price in Port Moresby Sweet potato price Volume (tonnes) Sweet potato supply J 1996 M M J S N J 1997 M M J S N J 1998 M M J S N Price per kg (Kina) 0.00 Volume Price Source: FPDC Volume of sweet potato shipped from Lae to Port Moresby and price of sweet potato in Port Moresby markets,

14 Should PNG grow its own rice? Every National Agricultural Plan and Food Security Plan since Independence has contained proposals to replace imported rice with domestically produced rice. Import replacement of rice or wheat by domestic production of rice and wheat will be very difficult and probably unwise. Rice grown in PNG is presently less than 0.1% of imported rice. No wheat is produced in PNG other than experimental plantings. To replace present rice imports would require about 73,000 ha of good quality, flat, irrigable land. It would incur very high capital costs of irrigation infrastructure, processing plants, storage facilities, agro-chemicals and fertilizers, all imported, using a weak currency, in the face of steeply rising costs of fuel and fertilizer.

15 Can rural areas meet the increased demand for food in urban areas?

16 Source of most sweet potato sold in Port Moresby, Lae and Madang

17 Good quality land is in short supply in PNG

18 Can local technologies meet the urban demand for more food? Composted mounds in Enga Drained swamps at Tari

19 Invest in agricultural research on the staple foods, not on import replacement of rice and wheat Frost Drought Domestic food production is not problem free all of the time but sweet potato has no critical pests and diseases, yet. Rain

20 Population growth is a greater long term threat to food security in PNG than rises in world food prices 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Population growth rate 1966 to 2000: 2.4% to 2.6% per year Doubling time 30 years ,000, Southern Highlands North Coast Islands NCD Year 2

21 HIV/AIDS 2006 modeling for PNG finds possible 11% infection rates in year old age group by PNG population growth will slow, but not become negative. In Zimbabwe 37%-61% decline in food production with death of head of household. In Malawi, increase of over 120% in production of cassava with sick or dead head of household. Household vulnerability associated with substitutability of labour, land and capital resources; and flexibility in sequencing agricultural labour.

22 The End