Japan s Energy Backlash with small hope

Transcription

1 UK Energy Policy: Late Lessons from Chernobyl, Early Warnings from Fukushima Organized by Nuclear Free Local Authorities, Nuclear Consulting Group, Green Cross International Jubilee Room, Portcullis House, Westminster, Bridge St, London, Japan s Energy Backlash with small hope January 28th 2016, Tetsunari IIDA Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies

2 Outline 1. The reality of 5 years after Fukushima disaster 2. Small but fundamental hope 3. Japan could be renewable 100% future 4. Energy democracy could change 2

3 5 years after 3.11 Fukushima 3

4 The reality Small improvements Spreading chaos Big seal 4

5 Spreading chaos 1. ABE backlash and Shock doctrine years TEPCO s roadmap w/o any proof 3. All nuclear policy under METI s governance 4. ( ) 2 Complicating nuclear waste issue 5. ( ) Odd situation over radiation 6. Difficulty in refugees future 7. Media control again 5

6 No.4 Fukushima daiichi Spent fuels successfully taken out (Dec.20, 2014) But no chance for No.1 ~3 6

7 decontamination small progress ü Progress in decontamination in some place ü Interim storage site for decontamination waste decided Spreading chaos ü Pressure to return after decontamination ü Massive transportation of decontamination waste ü After 30 years interim storage? million m 3 7

8 no freezing ice wall Ice wall

9 The reality 9

10 Sampling well Turbine Bldg. Reactor Bldg. Cooling water Contaminated water tank Sampling well Leak age Ground water level Sea level Ground water Contamination plume Impermeable layer? 10

11 4 11 About 110,000 refugees left behind 11 Aircraft Monitoring by MEXT 11 (Deposition amount of Cesium134 and 137)

12 big cover-up Nuclear accident data & documents Radiation health effect Economical burden structure 12

13 Under control Completely blocked by Shinzo ABE 13

14 New trend in Justice : the case of Fukui 14

15 (Aug. 11, 2015) Sendai Nuke Restart by KEPCO N/A Don t know For Against Local people opinion poll 15

16 (Aug. 11, 2015) Sendai Nuke Restart by KEPCO 1. Insufficient the new safety regulations 2. Not conform to the new safety regulations 3. New safety myth 4. No reality of evacuation 5. No one responsible for evacuation 6. No improvement of emergency plan 7. No consideration of aging 8. No refection liability from Fukushima 9. No progress of nuclear waste issue 10. Political structure of lack of responsibility 16

17 Small but potential hope for fundamental change 1. Citizens Jury succeeded in the case against TEPCO 2. Fundamental change in public perception about nuclear 3. Nation s common experience in large scale energy saving 4. Rapid growth in renewable energy by FIT 5. Community power rising 6. Democracy activated both in energy and peace 17

18 Citizens Jury : the case against TEPCO (July 31, 2015) the Committee for Inquest into the Prosecution 18

19 Fundamental change about nuclear Before 3.11 Cheaper electricity Good for economy Supply security Oil alternative For national security Safety myth Need for monopoly After 3.11 More expensive & risk Risk for economy Supply risk Need for stand-by oil Risk for national security Reality of risk Need for open market 19

20 Energy saving the largest alternative to nuclear 6000" 5000" 4000" 3000" 2000" " 0" 1" 267" 533" 799" 1065" 1331" 1597" 1863" 2129" 2395" 2661" 2927" 3193" 3459" 3725" 3991" 4257" 4523" 4789" 5055" 5321" 5587" 5853" 6119" 6385" 6651" 6917" 7183" 7449" 7715" 7981" 8247" 8513" 20

21 Rinsing renewables power in Japan FIT introduction Biomass Small hydro Geothermal Wind Solar PV RE share (%) ISEP 21

22 Proposal of Energy Shift for 100% RE Before Fukushima After Fukushima (Transition Phase) Energy Shift Phase Nuclear Fossil Fuel Fossil Fuel Fossil Fuel Long-term Energy Shift to 100% Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Renewable Energy 22

23 Bizen Hiroshima Yamaguchi Obama Kumamoto Rising community power in Japan Niceko Obihiro Shiragami Kyotango Toyama Akita Takarazuka Takayama Yamagata Niigata Iwate Aizu Soma Minami-Soma Saitama IIDA city Chofu Shizuoka Odawara Nagano Setagaya 23

24 2 axes power transition Large/ Centralized Nuke/Fossil RE Small/ Decentralized 24

25 Community power in Niigata 25

26 Jump up after Drastically changed public attitude - Enhanced by social network - Poor perception by old system - Chance for nation-wide dialogue Ajisai (hydrangea) Revolution 26

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28 Limitation of top-down approach n Exclusive circle within power elite n Biased by techno-centric view n Dogma, or heavily weighing on the past trend n Alienated from the reality n Negative for innovation and social change 28

29 Energy democracy or bottom-up energy transition n Fundamental thought, a right to our own power or energy n Conditions: technically economically being more feasible n Inclusive, being more people and communities getting involved n Associative democracy, participate in action n Sense of ownership, strengthen political empowerment n Social innovation, through learning by doing n Next stage of ecological modernization 29

30 At the crossroad Old regime Centralized Monopoly Hierarchy New paradigm Small distributed Community ownership Network Fossil & nuclear (Numerical) Economic growth Renewable & Energy efficiency Sufficiency, justice, welfare 30