Global Population Trends

Transcription

1 Global Population Trends Carl Haub Population Reference Bureau POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

2 World Population Growth Is Almost Entirely Concentrated in the World's Poorer Countries World Population (in Billions): Developing Countries Developed Countries United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

3 Developed Countries by Age and Sex, 2008 Diminishing Numbers of Young People and Future Aging Age '10-14 ' Males Females Millions United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

4 Developing Countries by Age and Sex, 2008 Large Numbers of Young People and Substantial Population Growth Age '10-14 ' Males Females Millions United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

5 Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, Two Very Different Histories 7 Lifetime children per woman Bangladesh U.S Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys

6 The Demographic Divide The Example of Nigeria and Japan Nigeria Japan Population 2009 (millions) Population 2050 (millions) Lifetime Births per Woman Annual Number of Births 6,200,000 1,100,000 Percent of Population Below Age Percent of Population Age Life Expectancy at Birth Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births Annual Number of Infant Deaths 465,000 2,900 Percent of Adults with HIV/AIDS 3.1 -

7 The Demographic Divide in Three States of India Uttar Pradesh Bihar Kerala Population 2001 (millions) Population Literacy Male/Female (%) 69/42 60/33 94/88 Lifetime Births per Woman Modern Contraceptive Prev Traditional Contra. Prev Urban Population (%) Percent of Population < Age Households with Electricity (%) Households in Permanent-type House Households with Television Households with Car, Jeep, or Van Households with Two-wheeler Households in One-room House Percent of Children <3 Underweight Census of India and National Family Health Survey-3

8 Total Fertility Rate, Major States, of India Maharashtra Delhi Punjab West B engal Himachal Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Kerala Tamil N adu INDIA Uttar Pradesh Bihar Rajasthan Chhattisgarh Assam Haryana Gujarat Orissa J&K Karnataka Sample Registration System

9 HIV Prevalence Before and After Nationally-representative Surveys Were Taken, Selected sub-saharan African Countries, Percent of adult population Before survey After survey Zambia Kenya Central Af. Rep. Cote d'ivoire Uganda UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys

10 Population Pyramid, China, 2007 Age Great Leap Forward Males Females U.S. Census Bureau, International Database Percent

11 Population Pyramid, India, 2006 Age Males Females Percent Population Reference Bureau projections, based on 2001 Census of India

12 Population Pyramid, China, 2020 Age Males Females U.S. Census Bureau, International Database Percent

13 Population Pyramid, India, 2021 Age Males Females Population Reference Bureau projections, based on 2001 Census of India Percent

14 The Slowdown in African Fertility Decline Lifetime children per woman Chad Zimbabwe Uganda South Africa Demographic and Health Surveys and Statistics South Africa

15 Total Fertility Rates, Selected EU 15 Countries and the U.S., Children per woman Germany Sweden Italy France U.S.A Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites

16 Total Fertility Rates, Selected New EU Countries, Children per woman Poland Hungary Czech Republic Lithuania Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites

17 Average Personal Ideal Number of Children, 2001 and 2006, Females Ages Austria Germany France Italy U.K. Portugal Sweden EU15 Eurobarometers, 56.2 and 65.1

18 Percentage of Women, Ages Giving None or One as Their Ideal Number of Children, Selected Countries of Europe None One Austria Germany Netherlands France Sweden EU 15 Italy Eurobarometer, 56.2

19 Suggestions to Solve Labor Force Shortages, 2006, Females, EU25 More working women 19.5 Part-timers to full-time Raise birth rate Discourage early retirement 12.0 Non-EU immigration 7.0 Raise retirement age Increase working hours None, other, don't know Eurobarometer, 65.1

20 Suggestions to Solve Labor Force Shortages, 2006, Males, EU25 More working women 14.3 Part-timers to full-time 17.1 Raise birth rate 15.5 Discourage early retirement 12.6 Non-EU immigration Raise retirement age Increase working hours 5.8 None, other, don't know Eurobarometers, 65.1

21 Italy in 2050 with No Increase in Fertility and No Migration Age Males Females ,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Population Reference Bureau projection 1000s

22

23 U.S. Population Millions Million U.S. Census Bureau

24 Components of U.S. Population Growth by Ethnic Group, Millions 1,881 Natural increase Net immigration U.S. Total U.S Census Bureau White non- Hispanic Hispanic Black/Af. Amer. Asian/Other

25 U.S. Population by Ethnic Group, 2010 and 2050 Percent White, non-hispanic Black Hispanic Other U.S Census Bureau, 2008 projections

26 Continuing The Rise number in the U.S. of Foreign-born foreign-born Population in the U.S. is at an all-time high, but their share of the total population is still below that of U.S. Census Bureau

27 Total Fertility Rate of U.S. Ethnic Groups, 1991 and 2007 Lifetime births per woman * U.S. Total White non- Hispanic Black non- Hispanic Asian/Pac. Islander American Indian All Hispanic groups Mexican National Center for Health Statistics *2006

28 U.S. White non-hispanic Population by Age and Sex, 2006 Age Males Females ' U.S. Census Bureau Percent

29 U.S. Hispanic Population by Age and Sex, 2006 Age Males Females ' U.S. Census Bureau Percent

30 Country of Birth of the Foreign Born Population, United States, 2008 Millions Mexico China Philippines India Vietnam El Salvador S. Korea Cuba Canada Dom. Rep. Guatemala U.K. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

31 Total Fertility Rates, Selected Countries of Latin America/Caribbean, ca Children per woman Gutemala Haiti Bolivia Honduras Nicaragua Dom. Rep. Peru El Salvador Jamiaca Mexico 2009 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau

32 Population 2009 and 2050, Selected Latin America/Caribbean Countries Millions Mexico El Salvador Dom. Rep. Haiti Guatemala El Salvador Honduras Cuba Nicaragua Colombia 2009 World Population Data Sheet, Population Reference Bureau

33 Since 1970, U.S. population growth has been unevenly distributed, with growth in the South and West, and loss in much of the Great Plains. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 Census of Population and 2005 population estimates.

34 Thank You!