Ready or Not, Here Come the Boomers

Transcription

1 Ready or Not, Here Come the Boomers Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer Presented at Waterloo Region Dialogue on Diversity Kitchener, Ontario March 20, 2013

2 Outline of Presentation Summary portrait of the older population in Waterloo Region How are the Boomers different? Some key challenges 2

3 Population growth in Waterloo Region has been higher than provincial average Percentage Population Growth, Waterloo Region Waterloo Ontario Source: Statistics Canada Demographic Estimates; Ontario Ministry of Finance 3

4 A young Canadian population in years and over Parents of Boomers World War II Boomers born Under 1 year 400, , , , , , , ,000 Population in thousands Source: Statistics Canada 4

5 Canada s aging population years and over Parents of Boomers World War II Boomers born Generation X Generation Y Under 1 year 400, , , , , , , ,000 Population in thousands Source: Statistics Canada 5

6 The population aged 55 and over make up one quarter of the total population of Waterloo Region Number and Percent, Population aged 55 and Over, Waterloo Region 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Count Percent % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates; Ontario Ministry of Finance 6

7 Population (1000s) Need to segment the older population Estimated Population, Waterloo Region, Preseniors Younger seniors Older seniors Oldest seniors Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada 2011 Census 7

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10 Boomers are living longer Life Expectancy, Canada Percentage Life Expectancy at Birth Percentage Life Expectancy at Age 65 Males Females Males Females Source: Statistics Canada 10

11 More women at older ages Percent of Population, Waterloo Region 80% % Female 70% 60% 50% 50% 40% 30% 20% Age Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates 11

12 Immigrants make up over one third of older population in Waterloo Region Permanent Resident Immigration to Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, ,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Temporary Residents December 2011 Foreign Workers 1,620 Students 2, Source: Citizenship and Immigration; 2012 percent Environics Analytics estimate Immigrants as % of Population Waterloo Region, 2006 Total 22.3% Ages 55 and over 36.8% 12

13 Shifts in immigration reflected in cultural diversity by age Percent of Population Visible Minority, Waterloo Region, All Ages 13.1% Under and over Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada 2006 Census 13

14 Language groups in Waterloo Region Top Mother Tongues, Waterloo Region, 2011 German Portuguese Spanish French Romanian Polish Serbian Chinese, n.o.s. Arabic Panjabi (Punjabi) Vietnamese Mandarin Persian (Farsi) Urdu 10,025 7,975 6,090 5,560 5,440 5,075 4,835 4,425 3,870 3,195 3,065 2,930 2,800 16,515 n.o.s. not otherwise specified Source: Statistics Canada 2011 Census 14

15 More than half the population have a disability at ages over 75 Percentage with Disabilities, Canada, 2006 Males Females Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, Participation and Activity Limitations Survey,

16 Increasing Internet use but many still not surfing online Census Population, Canada 100% 80% 60% 80 Internet Use Rate*, Canada, % 51 20% 0% All ages 16 and over Age Groups 27 *The Internet use rate is the proportion of individuals who used the Internet for personal use during the last 12 months, from any location. Business-related use is excluded. Source: Statistics Canada, 2010 Canadian Internet Use Survey 16

17 What s ahead? 17

18 Population growth in Waterloo Region has been higher than provincial average Actual and Projected Population Growth, Waterloo Region Waterloo Ontario Actual Projected Source: Statistics Canada Demographic Estimates; Ontario Ministry of Finance 18

19 300, , , , ,000 50,000 0 In 20 years, over 30% of population will be aged 55 or over Number and Percent, Population aged 55 and Over, Waterloo Region Actual Count Projected Percent % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates; Ontario Ministry of Finance 19

20 Population (1000s) The Boomers are coming Estimated Population, Waterloo Region, Baby Boomers Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada 2011 Census 20

21 High growth at the older ages A near doubling of the population aged 55 and over in next two decades Estimated and Projected Percentage Change in Population, Waterloo Region % % % Under and over Source: Statistics Canada Demographic Estimates; Ontario Ministry of Finance 21

22 Major life-stage decisions /changes Where to live? At younger older ages When health begins to decline Continue in paid labour force? In what capacity? Changes in income with change in labour force status Use of assets How to spend increased leisure time Travel and doing the things you never had time for Involvement with children/grandchildren Caregiving for parents/others Loss of spouse/partner 22

23 Compared to today s seniors, Boomers have different life histories and different social values Boomers have different life histories: Smaller and more complex families Are more highly educated Have been two earner families In many cases part of four generations Will live longer post retirement, more years in good health Likely have more wealth, but inequality an issue They also have different values But all Boomers are not alike 23

24 Implications for Public Health and Social Services 24

25 Health conditions of the older population Summary Health Indicators, Persons 45 and Over in private households, Waterloo Health Unit Arthritis Diabetes Ages 65 and over Males Ages 65 and over Females Ages 65 and over Males Ages 65 and over Females High Blood Pressure Ages and over Ages and over Males Females Source: Canadian Community Health Survey Overweight or Obese Ages and over Ages and over Males Females 25

26 Falls, an all too often frequent event for seniors Percent Reporting a Fall in the Past Year, Ontario Males Females Age Groups Source: Canadian Community Health Survey, , Healthy Aging Supplement 26

27 Living arrangements differ for men and women Male Seniors Living Arrangements of Seniors, Waterloo Region, 2011 Female Seniors Collective Dwellings, Retirement Dwellings, Homes, Long Term Care With Others Couple Alone and over Age Groups and over Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada 2011 Census 27

28 Implications for income and other support 28

29 Incomes drop at older ages and change again on death of a spouse Median Income by Type of Family, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA, 2010 $89,400 $58,300 $25,100 Non elderly couples Elderly couples Elderly persons not in families Note: Elderly Families are those where higher income earner is aged 65 or over Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics 29

30 Housing affordability is an issue for many seniors on their own Percent of Housing Considered Non-affordable, Ontario, 2009 % Age % Age 65 and over Couples Single/Widowed/Divorced Note: CMHC Housing Indicator: Household spends 30% or more of income on shelter Source: Statistics Canada, 2009 Survey of Household Spending 30

31 Implications for Labour Force 31

32 Average age at retirement is increasing Age Average Age at Retirement, Canada Males Females Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey 32

33 Men and women remain in the labour force longer Labour Force Participation Rate, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA 80 Ages Males Females 60 % Age 65 and Over % % Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey 33

34 An older labour force Percent Age 55 and Over in Labour Force, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo % Labour Force Age 55 and Over (1000s) Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey 34

35 Implications for Housing 35

36 Shifts in residential living Type of Dwelling, Population Aged 55 and Over, Waterloo Region, Apartment 5+ storeys Other Single Family and over Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada 2011 Census 36

37 Possible implications of aging for single family dwellings As population ages, mortality and downsizing will mean an increased number of single family dwellings will be available to others Still unclear if Boomers will increase number of single family dwellings available due to increased downsizing 37

38 Implications for transportation 38

39 Some transportation issues Drive till what age? Handicapped parking Use of Public Transportation Routes/schedules Accessibility/dedicated seating Para-Transpo Problems particularly acute in rural and suburban areas 39

40 Over next 20 years Summary Population will continue to grow as a result of immigration Higher population growth at older ages Older population will nearly double Numbers are important but tomorrow s older population will be different in many ways Need to consider changes/implications at various ages Some lead time but it s later than you think 40

41 For further information contact Doug Norris