GO Transit Business Case

Transcription

1 Photo Credit: Randy Landicho City of Brantford Transportation Master Plan February 20 th, 2014 Name of Presentation

2 Content of Report Background/Study Purpose Market Potential -> Ridership Estimate Service Concepts -> >Routes, Service Levels, Assumptions Costs and Revenues: Ridership, Fare and Revenues Operating Costs: GO, Brantford, Contracted Other Operating, Capital Brantford Operated Service Details Benefits of service Conclusions Recommendations 2

3 Study Purpose Overall purpose: Assess the feasibility of expanding GO Transit service to Brantford: Determine the market potential Develop route concepts Estimate ridership, benefits, and costs Identify legislative and operational requirements Report to Metrolinx/GO Transit basis for introducing service to Brantford 3

4 Existing Inter-Municipal Transit Service VIA Rail: Five daily trains per direction between Brantford and Toronto s Union Station. Greyhound: Five daily buses per direction between Brantford and Hamilton GO Centre (via McMaster). Four of these buses continue on to Toronto. GO Transit: Nine a.m. peak period trains from Burlington/Aldershot GO stations. Accessible via car from Brantford. Service Provider Lowest Trip Cost Number of AM Peak Period Trips One-Way Travel Time Brantford-Toronto VIA Rail $ :10 GO Transit (Aldershot) $ gas 9 ~1:40 Brantford-Hamilton Greyhound $ :55 4

5 Primary Travel Markets Hamilton: 8,700 daily round trips Regional economic and education node Hub for connections to Halton, Peel, Niagara Historic link to Brantford Waterloo Region: 4,400 daily round trips Historic i link to Brantford (Cambridge) Toronto: 680 daily round trips Two thirds of current transit trips from Brantford to the GTHA are destined for Toronto. 49% 23% 11% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% Hamilton Waterloo Halton Peel Toronto Niagara Wellington York Others 5

6 Transit Demand Basis for estimating Ridership: Licence plate survey at Burlington GO stations Existing VIA and Greyhound ridership Existing auto demand between municipalities (2012 Waterloo-Wellington-Brant Survey, TTS) Transit mode share: comparison to other intermunicipal links = 1% to 3% Hamilton Waterloo Region Toronto Mode Mode Trips Share Trips Share Trips Mode Share Mode Auto Driver 6,450 74% 3,750 85% % Auto Passenger 2,200 25% % % GO Transit Park and Ride % 80 11% Greyhound % 0 0% 25 4% VIA Rail % 75 11% TOTAL 8, % 4, % % 6

7 Route Alternatives 7

8 Route Alternatives Route 1A Hamilton GO Centre via McMaster McMaster is a large generator of transit trips Connection to Toronto Union express bus Route 1B Hamilton GO Centre via Mohawk College Many Mohawk students in Brantford Connection to Toronto Union express bus Route 2 Aldershot GO Station via McMaster Connection to Lakeshore West rail line Route 3 GRT Ainslie Street Terminal Connection to GRT ixpress service Optional extension to Smart!Centres 8

9 Service Options Peak-only service Three a.m. and four p.m. round trips, Monday to Friday Monday-Friday service 13 daily round trips departing between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. Monday-Saturday service Same as Monday-Friday service but with the addition of 13 round trips on Saturday 9

10 Ridership Hamilton routes have highest ridership potential McMaster, Mohawk Year one ridership will be ~60% of mature ridership Growth will be approximately in line with Brantford population growth Daily Riders (Round Trip) Peak-Only Service Full-Day Service Route Year One Year Two 2021 Year One Year Two A: Hamilton via McMaster B: Hamilton via Mohawk : Aldershot via McMaster : Cambridge (Ainslie Street)

11 Fare and Revenue Assumptions Assumes standard GO Transit Co-fare arrangement Considered GO fares (estimated by distance) and existing VIA and Greyhound Fare revenue options - regular Brantford Transit fare or premium fare (based on estimated GO fare) No Presto Route Adult Cash Fare Average Fare Paid 1A: Hamilton via McMaster $7.25 $5.10 1B: Hamilton via Mohawk $7.25 $5.10 2: Aldershot via McMaster $7.70 $5.40 3: Cambridge (Ainslie Street) $5.65 $

12 Brantford Operation GO Transit suggested Brantford could operate the service to expedite service implementation Two options: City Contracted (by City) Brantford could operate service at lower cost (than GO) subject to the following conditions: Acquire new buses (min. $60, one-time cost) Provide parallel BL service ($50-60K/annum) Acquire PV operating licence Install signage, shelters, etc. Downtown terminal space 12

13 Benefits Reduces reliance on the automobile Promotes economic and business opportunities Opens up new employment and scholastic opportunities For residents with a car, provides them with the opportunity to save money by leaving it at home Long term: Manage congestion Reduce air pollution Consistent t with Province s Places to Grow, 2011 TTS vs 2006 TTS data, GTAWest and Niagara Corridor studies 13

14 Net Operating Costs Route GO Transit Operation Brantford Operation Contracted Operation 1A: Hamilton via McMaster Peak-Only $332,000 $94,000 $109,000 Weekday $673,000 $207,000 $236,000 Six-Day $818,000 $250,000 $284,000 1B: Hamilton via Mohawk Peak-Only $326,000 $116,000 $131,000 Weekday $622,000 $234,000 $263,000 Six-Day $752,000 $282,000 $316,000 2: Aldershot via McMaster Peak-Only $418,000 $124,000 $139,000 Weekday $876,000 $295,000 $324,000 Six-Day $1,067,000 $357,000 $391,000 3: Cambridge (Ainslie Street) Peak-Only $273,000 $244,000 $259,000 Weekday $524,000 $474,000 $503,000 Six-Day $639,000 $572,000 $606,000 GO Transit costs include payments to Brantford to cover the expenses of providing free connecting trips on Brantford Transit, whereas Brantford and Contracted costs include the receipt of these payments. Cost do not include capital buses, stops, shelters, terminal, garage, park and ride. 14

15 Conclusions Inter-municipal transit links are beneficial Hamilton is primary destination 2011 TTS data shows increased travel to Hamilton, less to Toronto Routes 1A and 1B have the highest ridership potential Net cost to operate peak period service on these routes is approximately $330,000/annum (GO costs) GO Transit service area will have to be expanded d via a ministerial regulation Brantford could operate service at lower cost, subject to several conditions (PV licence, capital) 15

16 Recommendations It is recommended that: This report be received; Route alternatives 1A and 1B be endorsed as the preferred inter-municipal service links for Brantford; Report be submitted to Metrolinx as the Business Case justification for Metrolinx to amend its service area to include the city of Brantford and County of Brant and, further, as the basis for Metrolinx to introduce new inter-city GO Transit bus transportation service to Brantford. 16