Mokhtar Benabdallaoui, July 12, 2012

Transcription

1 I slamists have been the greatest beneficiaries of the Arab Spring, not only on account of their superior organizational abilities, but also because of the support they have received as a result of their prominence as victims of authoritarianism. Islamists have been joined in the uprisings by other popular movements. Many recently empowered Islamist organizations are now involved in a power struggle, in which the logical response is to forge large coalitions with liberals, secularists, and leftists. New expressions of Islamism are gaining adherents who are aware of widespread changes around the world and who are committed to the principles of human rights, democracy, and diversity. The future actions of Islamist leaders will reveal whether these commitments are genuine or hollow. Transformation in the Middle East demands a shift in U.S. strategy. Authoritarian regimes can preserve U.S. interests in the short term, but only democratic forces can provide stability, enduring cooperation, and shared values. It is also important to ponder the regional aspects of the Arab Spring: How will it affect the remaining authoritarian regimes in the region? How will it influence the relationship between Islamists on the one hand, and liberals and leftists on the other? Can mainstream Islamist tendencies survive? What are the characteristics of an Islamist civil state? These are some of the questions whose answers only time will reveal. Mokhtar Benabdallaoui, July 12, 2012

2 2 Democratic Transition in the Middle East: Between Authoritarianism and Islamism Dr. Mokhtar Benabdallaoui Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow National Endowment for Democracy July 12, 2012

3 Presentation Overview 3 I. An Overview of the Arab Uprisings II. Social Islamization Versus Political Islamism III. Six Categories of Arab Countries IV. Case Studies The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt Al-Nahda in Tunisia The Justice and Development Party in Morocco The Justice and Charity Party in Morocco Hezbollah in Lebanon V. The Outlook for Islamism and Democracy

4 4 I. An Overview of the Arab Uprisings

5 A Summer Storm 5 Major Characteristics of the Arab Uprisings Spontaneous Governments, citizens, and academics failed to predict large-scale protests Demonstrations occurred with minimal central planning Protests were organic and lacked major leaders or organizational capacity Diverse Joined by various segments of society: leftists, seculars, Islamists, women, and liberals Region-wide Unrest touched every country in the Middle East, from the Atlantic coast to the Gulf

6 Why is the Arab Spring So Unpredictable? 6 When fundamental liberties are banned, it is difficult to observe transformation within a society The Arab Exception Claim that Arab society and culture were incompatible with democracy The Arab Spring repudiated this thesis Disregard of Sociological Indicators Urbanization Rising education levels and literacy rates Modern nuclear family structure Integration of women into the labor market New forms of communication

7 Mechanic Social Relations 7 Characteristic of countries with poor social integration Strong allegiance to tribe, sect, and religion Examples: Syria Yemen Libya Dominant Sect Religious and Ethical Barriers Sect 2 Sect 3

8 Organic Social Relations 8 Characteristic of countries with high levels of social integration Identity based on citizenship, strong allegiance to nation Examples: Egypt Tunisia Representative 1 Representative 5 Representative 2 Representative 4 Representative 3

9 Levels of Institutionalization 9 The inheritance of the presidency posed problems for authoritarians in Syria, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen Widely unpopular among population Eroded the legitimacy of the rulers The Influence and Role of the Military The loyalty and mission of the military played a role in the fate of Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Libya, and Yemen The outcomes of the uprisings depended in large part on the degree of institutionalization of the military

10 10 II. Social Islamization Versus Political Islamism

11 11 Social Islamization Versus Political Islamism Social Islamization Spontaneous action emanating from below Source of collective & individual identity Specific tool to assert modernity Political Islamism Intentional action from above Goal: to mobilize and govern A political order An ethical framework An economic theory A social model Can Social Islamization Encourage Radicalization? When the government imposes unjustified restrictions on the population When a political party or government focuses on one component of identity

12 Consequences of Monolithism 12 Identification 1 Religion Fundamentalism Identification 2 Tribe Ethnicity Racism Identification 3 Nation Chauvinism

13 Composite Identity 13 Religion Human Ethnic National

14 Characteristics of Classical Political 14 Islamism Classical Political Islamism Rigidly orthodox Dogmatic Fundamentalist Totalitarian (Islam is the solution) These Characteristics Were Not Exclusive to Islamism Any political entity that bases its legitimacy on religion can commit similar transgressions Often leads to confusion between the sacred and the secular, the religious and the political

15 A Shift in the Rhetoric of Islamism 15 Rejection of the Idea of the Caliphate Discarded in favor of democracy Abandonment of the Implementation of Sharia An increasing commitment to universal values Still adhere to general principles of sharia as source of legislation, but refrain from the immediate implementation of its rigid stipulations Neutralization of the Mosque An agreement in principle to distinguish religion from political activities Distinction between sacred and public space Acceptance of the Civil State Equality under the law Citizenship Opportunities for minorities and women

16 The Diversity of Islamists 16 Elements that have led to the diversity of Islamist organizations: Different interpretations of religious texts Changes in social or political contexts Relations with government Organizational structure Big/Small Administrative/Charismatic Public/Secret Dissent within the group

17 17 III. Six Categories of Arab Countries

18 Countries of Revolution 18 Tunisia Well integrated society High performance on human resource indicators Historical ties to Europe Well-educated and literate population Strong national identity Egypt Well integrated society Strong national identity Long political and social traditions History as a coherent state Libya Transitioned from a civil war to revolution as a result of NATO intervention Yemen The Incomplete Revolution Split within the ruling tribe leads to conflict and Saleh s resignation Rebellion: the Houthi movement in northern Yemen Tensions between northern and southern Yemen Al-Qaeda vies for autonomy in the south

19 Countries in the Throes of Change 19 Syria A civil war with complex outcomes Characterized by tension and outright conflict between sectarian groups Regional implications with a direct impact on Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and the countries of the Gulf Bahrain A dynamic of sectarian conflict with paradoxical results Direct interference from regional powers such as Saudi Arabia Implications for regional power balance and sectarian relationships

20 Countries of Reform 20 Morocco Protesters had bold ambitions but only achieved limited reforms King Mohammad VI responded quickly and proposed reforms, including: Empowerment of a prime minister elected by a parliamentary majority Separation of powers Expansion of the prerogatives of mayors These initiatives appeared to signal the beginning of a transformation to a constitutional monarchy However, they contained ambiguous language and were solely intended to pacify protesters, not implement true reform Human rights and press freedoms are still suppressed Jordan King Abdullah promised reforms but failed to deliver Reorganization of the cabinet and removal of multiple prime ministers is a ploy to deflect blame and appeal to the protesters, but has failed to foster actual reform

21 Countries of Continuity 21 The Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council The regimes attempted to maintain their honor and have found a temporary reprieve from unrest by buying social peace and stability Are these maneuvers sufficient, or will the Gulf monarchies be forced to implement real democratic reforms in the future? While subsidizing the material needs of their populations has temporarily quelled unrest, this grace period will be short Eventually, rising unemployment levels, coupled with a large and well-educated youth, will force real democratic reform in the Gulf

22 Countries of Ostensible Exception 22 Because of unique circumstances, these countries lack the stability, unity, and determination necessary for sustained protests: Algeria A heritage of a long and painful civil war Hundreds of thousands killed in the 1990s in violence between Islamists and the military Sudan Recent secession of South Sudan Simultaneous civil wars The plight of everyday life Iraq Foreign occupation Experienced a series of wars since the 1980s Sectarian conflicts between Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds Plight of everyday life

23 The Real Exception 23 Lebanon Country is a sectarian democratic oligarchy Affected by the legacy of a long and brutal civil war Vulnerable to the influence of regional powers Politically unstable due to tenuous ruling coalitions Conservatism of the society paralyzes the modernization of the state Political gridlock and sectarian concerns hamper progress and the transformation of the political system

24 IV. Case Studies 24 We should get married before we learn about sectarianism.

25 The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt 25 Economic Challenges Avoid government bankruptcy Programs to create jobs Initiatives to attract foreign investment Educational investments to foster prosperity The Puzzle of Success Economic prosperity can be created by unpopular political decisions, relationships, and concessions Can democracy grow despite restrictions imposed by the military? Yes, the Muslim Brotherhood needs national unity to resist military hegemony It needs cooperation from political rivals, including secular parties, to balance the power of the military

26 Al-Nahda in Tunisia 26 The Legacy of Habib Bourguiba The success of contemporary Tunisia is largely due to one man: former president Habib Bourguiba Al-Nahda: The Avant-Garde Islamist Organization The first self-critical political party The first party accepting of political diversity Europe will remain Tunisia s privileged partner Tunisia will invest primarily in the Maghreb Will Tunisia become a new democratic Islamist paradigm for the Middle East? Al-Nahda s success will increase the power and prestige of Tunisia Al-Nahda could become a model for other Islamist groups in the Middle East

27 27 The JDP and J&C in Morocco The Justice and Development Party (JDP) In response to protests, the king brought the JDP into the government to resolve social and economic crises However, the JDP has no real power and serves as a scapegoat The party is now blamed for the country s continuing problems Possesses a weak mobilization capacity Disadvantaged due to the fragmented political arena Justice and Charity (J&C) A paradox: political Sufism Believe that change can only come from society

28 Hezbollah in Lebanon 28 What theoretical framework is useful for understanding wilayat al-fakih? The necessity of Iranian support, which is vital to Hezbollah s political power From waiting for salvation to taking initiative on public issues From the goal of an Islamic republic to Lebanon first The genius of the Lebanese system Political Trends Do Not Favor Hezbollah Strategic alliance with a failed state Syria From the protected to the protector of Syria A decrease in Iran s regional role Sunni-Shia polarization

29 29 V. The Outlook for Islamism and Democracy

30 Islamism and Arab Societies 30 The experience of the Egyptian elections shows that a vote for Islamists is often a vote of protest instead of a vote for Islamist principles, which foreshadows the rise of other political strains The inclusion of Islamists in the political arena will moderate their speech, force them to embrace compromise, and make religion more inconsequential which is good for democracy and Arab societies The existence of Islamist regimes in Arab countries, and increased ties due to political similarities, can promote economic integration and free trade and enhance prosperity in the region

31 Islamism and Democracy 31 The collapse of four military and police regimes Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen presents a unique opportunity to establish democracy in the region It is time for the reform of religion: between a new Islamism and Salafism The new Islamism is an effective means of removing inviolability from public policy Islamists have started to embrace universal principles, such as human rights and respect for individual freedoms Islamists are on the path to democracy Engage in more efforts to abandon dogmatism (epitomized by the slogan Islam is the solution) Reject the use of religion in politics, which foments sectarianism Elaborate concrete political projects

32 Islamists and Relations with the United States 32 The Cost of Stability The embrace of military and authoritarian regimes has failed to promote stability or democracy in the Arab world Towards a New Option for Stability and Development in the Middle East? Embrace of legitimate, democratically elected governments is the most effective, low-cost way to promote stability and American interests in the Middle East Islamists share the same free market principles as the United States An inclusive policy can promote real pluralism in the future Political engagement will mitigate some religious restrictions to promote economic and political goals The United States should partner with democratic Islamist governments to promote stability, freedom, and economic opportunities in the Arab world