What do we know about American s views on the US-Israel relationship? Results from a 5 year panel of US voters

Transcription

1 What do we know about American s views on the US-Israel relationship? Results from a 5 year panel of US voters

2 Question: How did economic hard times effect US attitudes? 6000 person survey conducted on line between 2007 and waves Added questions on Israel in the spring of 2012 Provide some preliminary findings Findings based on a large amount of information collected on these respondents Ask whether or not hard times explains variation in attitudes Also, able to use what we know about their religious, political and economic circumstance Compare attitudes on Israel with other policies and make some general observations Focus on partisanship and policy

3 7 Survey Questions Explicitly about the Middle East 1. Do you favor or oppose the U.S. providing military support to Israel? 2. If there were a war between Israel and Arab countries, do you think the U.S. should be an ally of Israel or the Arab countries? 3. Which of these countries do you consider to be allies or enemies of the U.S.? ( Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, China, Pakistan, India) 4. Over the past 30 years, the U.S. has had a close relationship with Israel. Which of the following do you think are good reasons for the U.S. to have supported Israel? Check all that apply. 1. <1> Because of the biblical prophecy known as "the rapture 2. <2> Because Israel shares Judeo-Christian values 3. <3> Because Israel is the only non-muslim country in the Middle East 4. <4> Because of U.S. strategic interests in oil 5. <5> Because of the Holocaust 5. Do you think Jewish voters have too much or too little influence over U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East?

4 Two Questions Explicitly about Conflict 1. Why do you think the Israel-Palestine conflict has been so hard to resolve? 1. Jews and Muslims can't agree 2. Israeli intransigence 3. Palestinian intransigence 4. Bad leadership on both sides 5. Radical factions in Israel 6. Radical factions among Palestinians 7. Other 2. Why do you think most Arab states aren't democracies? Check all that apply. 1. No separation of between church state 2. Lack of education 3. Cultural problems 4. Inequality in wealth and income

5 Do you favor or oppose the U.S. providing military support to Israel? Response Favor Strongly 37 Favor Somewhat 17 Neither Favor Nor oppose Percent of Total 13 Oppose somewhat 14 Oppose strongly Most support, either strongly or somewhat 2. Still, 28% were opposed 3. Few didn t have an opinion 4. Variation in age group. 42% of those under 40 opposed aid to Israel while only 25% of those over 60 did. Only 31% of those under 40 favored aid while 60% of those over 60 did. Not sure 5

6 Do you think Jewish voters have too much or too little influence over U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East? Response Too much 23 Percent of Total About right Almost ¼ said too much 2. ¼ were not sure 3. For about 40%, the question didn t elicit a response that there was a problem with Jewish voters 4. No significant gender difference 5. Significant partisan difference Too little 11 Not sure 27 Response Democrats Republicans Independents Jewish Lobby has too much power 34% 6% 26%

7 Reasons for Israeli- Palestinian Conflict 1. Multiple responses 2. Don t believe it is just that Jew and Muslims can t agree with each other 3. Don t blame Israel 4. Don t blame the Palestinians either although they are given more responsibility than are the Israelis 5. Palestinians are seen as having bad leaders and more radical factions than in Israel Reason Given Percent Yes Percent No Jews and Muslims Can t Agree Israeli Intransigence Palestinian Intransigence Bad leadership for both Radical Israeli factions Radical Palestinian factions 66 34

8 Why Arab States Aren t Democracies Response Percent Yes Percent No 1. No real clarity on democracy 2. Some support for separation for church and state and cultural constraints 3. Education was not seen as the problem No Separation of Church and State Lack of Education Cultural Problems

9 If there were a war between Israel and Arab countries, do you think the U.S. should be an ally of Israel or the Arab countries? 1. Strong support for Israel in case of war 2. No support for Arab countries 3. About 1/3 think the US should stay neutral Response Percent Israel 57 Arab countries 1 Stay Neutral 36 Not sure 6

10 Reasons to Support Israel 1. About 10% of Americans appear to support Israel because of Biblical references to the end of days. 2. Similarly, about half see US support based on common religious beliefs. 3. Israel support not associated with US oil interests but almost half think the US supports Israel because it is non-muslim Response Percent yes Percent no The Rapture Judeo-Christian Beliefs Only Non Muslim State Interests in Oil The Holocaust 30 70

11 How does the public view Middle Eastern nations in terms of alliances? 1. In the region, Israel is seen as far more allied with the US than anyone else. 2. After Israel, Saudi Arabia is the other nation the elicited a positive ally response. 3. If we think about the region even more broadly, India also received positive responses. 4. Respondents were most unsure of Egypt s status 5. As to enemies, Iran was the most recognized as a US enemy, followed by Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. 6. Saudi Arabia was the most confusing to respondents almost even number saw as ally, neutral and enemy. Country Ally Percent Neutral Percent Enemy Percent Israel Egypt Saudi Arabia Iraq Afghanist an Iran China Pakistan India Not Sure Percent

12 What explains Attitudes? Partisanship is most predictive. When we aggregate aid responses, much more support among Republicans Democrats are more divided with more opposing aid although more are neutral on aid levels. Independent split the difference Q: Aid to Israel Male Female Democrat Republicans Indep. Favor 65% 42% 32% 84% 54% Neither 11% 14% 18% 6% 13% Oppose 22% 35% 43% 5% 31% Not sure 1% 9% 7% 3% 2%

13 Attitudes on Alliance looks the same. See most clearly if we compare whether the US should stay neutral in ME war or ally with Israel. Q: If War Male Female Democrat Republican Indep. Ally with Israel Stay neutral 66% 46% 36% 85% 55% 29% 44% 54% 12% 39% Not sure 4% 9% 8% 3% 5%

14 Are Democrats not supportive? Although many Democrats claim they would support Israel if a war broke out, more would want the US to stay neutral. Republicans have the opposite policy preference US alliance preferences in Mideast War Ally of Israel Ally of the Arab countries Stay neutral Not sure

15 Are Democrats just less internationalist? Partisan differences in aid to Israel do not appear to be associated with general aid preferences. Rather, party position is inverse to aid to Israel General US Foreign Aid Increase Keep the same Decrease US Foreign Aid to Israel Favor Neutral Oppose

16 Are Democrats more sympathetic to Palestinian position? Somewhat -- Republicans are much more likely to blame Palestinians for the conflict Palestinians (Not Israelis) Are Cause for Israel-Palestinian Conflict No Yes

17 Education/Knowledge is not what leads to these partisan differences. Palestinians (Not Israelis) Are Cause for Israel-Palestinian Conflict No Yes No Yes College No College Republican View By College/ No College Palestinians (Not Israelis) Are Cause for Israel-Palestinian Conflict No Yes No Yes College No College Democratic View By College/ No College

18 If not education, does economic position and/or economic circumstance plus religion influence ME policy preferences? Divided individuals based on whether or not they saw themselves as being better or worse off than three years earlier Looked at religion, and divided the sample based on how often people attended formal religious services (Democrats reported being less religious but having a harder time with the recession than did Republicans or Independents.) Not religious Religious Economic Hardship 27% 17% No Hardship 36% 21%

19 Aid Israel? Worse Off Not Worse Off Economic Status and Aid to Israel/ Religion and Aid Not strong relationship between economic circumstance and position on aid to Israel. Fiscal austerity concerns does not seem to be relevant here. Religious individuals do seem to be more willing to aid Israel. (However, religious individuals are more likely to be in the Republican party) Favor 65% 49% Neutral 9% 14% Oppose 22% 32% Not sure 4% 5% Aid Israel? Religious Not Favor 68% 34% Neutral 9% 15% Oppose 18% 34% Not sure 5% 4%

20 Younger voters and women are far less willing to blame Palestinians for ME problems than are men and their parents Some but not big difference with age 1/4 of the under 40 blamed Israel while 30% blamed Palestinians 41% of those under 40 blamed bad leadership on both sides 41% of those under 40 blamed radical factions in Israel and 52% of those under 40 blamed radical factions in Palestine Of those over 60, 70% blamed radical Palestinian factions while only 34% blamed radical Israeli factions. Palestinians are to blame Men Women Yes 53% 29% No 47% 71% Palestinians are to blame < >60 Yes 30% 39% 47% No 70% 61% 53%

21 Age and Changing Account of Reasons to Support Israel 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Under Over 60 Prophesy Holocaust Judeo-Christian Values Oil Non-Muslim

22 Jewish Americans do not look that different Israelis are to blame Protestant Catholic Jewish Muslim Higher numbers blame Palestinians for conflict Almost ¼ were also dissatisfied with Israeli positions American Muslims are clear outliers, among those who state a religious affiliation On the issue of radicalism, all agree that this is a problem, except Muslim Americans Yes 18% 23% 19% 57% No 82% 77% 81% 43% Palestinians are to blame Protestant Catholic Jewish Muslim Yes 43% 47% 56% 14% No 57% 53% 44% 86% Radical Palestinian s are to blame Protestant Catholic Jewish Muslim Yes 72% 65% 79% 43% No 28% 35% 21% 57%

23 What happened to general US policy during the recession? Top graph displays two policy areas, one immigration and the other trade policy, before, during and after the recession Bottom graph is also about policy preferences, done as part of an experiment measuring their commitment to three policies: environment, buying US products, labor policy Immigration looks as expected the recession made voters less willing to increase immigrant flows Trade policy went in the other direction more people willing to make trade deals ( about 10 points) Clearest effect of recession is in the bottom graph This kind of change NOT evident in US Israel relations

24 Summary findings 1. The policy position of US voters did not move with the recession. In fact, aid to Israel was not interpreted the same as general aid, which most Americans do not support. 2. Attitudes on Israel appear to have a partisan dimension that is less evident in other areas of foreign policy We know that the hawk-dove divide is somewhat associated with party but on the whole, foreign policy has historically been non-partisan 3. If you look at policy since 1947, hard to see a difference based on party of president. Other markers Iran revolution, OPEC, Iraq War but not a change in control of White House Seems to be a belief that it matters Netanyahu and Romney as evidence Different constituencies may not matter in the modern Middle East 4. Oddity of the religious right in a pro-israel coalition. Other sources of support have shifted. 5. Younger voters are more sympathetic to Palestinian human rights issues and have less memory of holocaust. This may be a more important shift in opinion than political party. 6. None of this may matter.