Introduction. The Main Lessons of the Global Financial Crisis for the Middle East and North Africa CHAPTER 1

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1 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page 35 CHAPTER 1 Introduction The Main Lessons of the Global Financial Crisis for the Middle East and North Africa The global financial crisis that erupted in 2007 is a sobering reminder of the critical role financial systems play in economic development. When financial systems perform their resource and risk allocation well, they enhance investment and productivity and contribute to higher growth of output and employment and to declining poverty and inequality. When they malfunction, financial markets hinder growth and exacerbate inequality. At their worst, they are breeding grounds for waste, corruption, and crises and can cause sharp and prolonged contractions in output and living standards. The global financial crisis highlighted the potential trade-offs between access to finance and financial stability. Retail and small and medium enterprise lending expanded significantly in many developed countries and emerging economies during the decade before the global crisis. The increase in lending to underserved sectors was frequently hailed as a victory for financial inclusion. In many cases, however, the increase was based on unsound practices, including poor credit underwriting and excessive borrowing, leveraging, and recourse to poorly regulated securitization. One of the major lessons of the crisis for all countries, not only those directly affected, is the need to recognize the potential trade-off between the design of financial development policies and the approach to financial regulation. 1 This lesson is particularly relevant for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where access to finance remains very restricted. The global financial crisis triggered major changes in the approach to financial regulation, but it did not result in major paradigm shifts in financial development policies. The reforms proposed by the G-20 and the Financial Stability Board have emphasized the role of macroprudential 35

2 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page Financial Access and Stability regulation and countercyclical policies, and these are welcome developments. However, there have been no major shifts in the approach to financial development. The potential countercyclical and access roles state banks play have been acknowledged, but without leading countries to contemplate a return to state-dominated financial systems. The crisis has shown the exposure of open financial systems to volatility, but the inefficiencies of closed financial systems continue to be understood as well. All in all, there have been no major paradigm shifts, although the crisis has resulted in greater awareness of the preconditions for financial reform, more care in the sequence and speed of reform, acknowledgment of market failures, and appreciation for well-designed policy interventions and tailored approaches to financial development policies. The Fragile Recovery and Long-Run Financial Development Agenda The region had been recovering from the global financial crisis in 2010 before the political turmoil of 2011 interrupted the pace of recovery in many countries. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC) were more affected by the global crisis than countries elsewhere in the region, as a result of their open financial systems and more overextended banks, but they rebounded quickly in 2010, as a result of strong financial and fiscal support programs (see chapter 2). Most non-gcc countries experienced a more moderate slowdown of credit and economic activity, as their financial systems were less open and their banks less overextended, but they, too, started resuming credit and output activity in The political turmoil in early 2011 interrupted the pace of recovery in many MENA countries, especially in the non-gcc region. The experience of past crises shows that full credit recovery takes time. The current political unrest in the region has added uncertainty about the strength and speed of the credit and output recovery. The political turmoil reveals deep-seated frustrations and a sense of political, social, and economic exclusion, especially among the region s large population of young people. Countries in the region improved their growth performance and social indicators in the 2000s as a result of global growth and a number of reforms (see Noland and Pack 2007; World Bank 2009, 2011). However, the average increase in real per capita incomes was unimpressive relative to other emerging regions (figure 1.1), and insufficient relative to the region s needs. MENA has the highest youth unemployment rates among emerging economies (figure 1.2), especially among university graduates, as well as the lowest rates of labor force participation (figure 1.3), especially among

3 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page 37 Introduction 37 FIGURE 1.1 Per Capita Income Growth, by World Region, and percent Middle East and North Africa Gulf Cooperation Council non-gulf Cooperation Council, state-led non-gulf Cooperation Council, private-led East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa developing economies world Source: World Bank FIGURE 1.2 Youth (Ages 15 24) Unemployment Rates, by World Region, % unemployed, ages North Africa Middle East Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean world Africa South Asia East Asia Source: ILO 2010.

4 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page Financial Access and Stability FIGURE 1.3 Labor Force Participation, by World Region, % of working-age population East Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Europe and Central Asia South Asia Middle East and North Africa women total Source: ILO women. These outcomes reveal the failure of countries in the region to generate stronger and inclusive growth, as well as the limitations of the strategy of employing university graduates in the public sector. A combination of insufficient reforms and flawed implementation explain the region s relatively weak historical growth performance. In recent decades, most MENA countries moved from a model of state-led growth to a model that relies more on the private sector. The change was achieved by privatizing state enterprises and banks, adopting several regulatory reforms aimed at improving the business environment, and reducing restrictions on foreign trade and investment. These reforms did not go far enough, however, or were not well implemented. The state still plays a dominant role in some countries, and these are the countries with the weakest growth performance (see figure 1.1). Public institutions charged with implementing reforms continued to privilege state enterprises and older private enterprises with established political connections, through formal and informal barriers to entry and nontariff barriers. The lack of competition and dynamism is reflected in the low ratios of private sector investment (figure 1.4), the high average age of enterprises, low business density, and poor export diversification (World Bank 2009). Weak growth and employment performance also reflects the lack of depth of financial sector reforms. Although many countries adopted reforms (box 1.1), in most countries the reforms failed to create a level

5 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page 39 Introduction 39 FIGURE 1.4 Private Investment Rates, by World Region, % of GDP East Asia and Pacific South Asia Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa world Source: World Bank BOX 1.1 Financial Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa Most countries in the region implemented financial reforms in the past decade, in efforts to promote financial development and expand access to finance. This box summarizes the key reform efforts in each of the main components of the financial system and highlights the main reform challenges. Financial Infrastructure Credit information is a key area in which MENA remains weak by comparison with other regions. Many economies have made efforts to improve credit information by upgrading their public credit registries (Lebanon, Oman, Tunisia, the West Bank and Gaza) or establishing private credit bureaus (Bahrain, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates). The upgraded public registry in the West Bank and Gaza operates like a best-practice private bureau. GCC countries have led the introduction of private credit bureaus, with Saudi Arabia making impressive progress in recent years. Non-GCC countries have also made recent progress in this area. Much remains to be done, however, to expand the coverage and depth of credit information, especially for small and medium enterprises. (Box continues on the next pages.)

6 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page Financial Access and Stability BOX 1.1 (continued) MENA also remains weak in the area of creditor rights. Most countries have outdated legislation and lack modern collateral registries. Kuwait s collateral registry is noteworthy for being the only electronic, and one of the few centralized, registries in the region. Insolvency systems are generally weak, although countries are moving to modernize bankruptcy regimes. Morocco and Tunisia are providing insolvency training for judges in commercial courts. Bank Competition Most countries in the region have reduced the share of state banks, through restructuring and privatization, and allowed the entry of new private banks, including foreign banks. Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Tunisia have made efforts to restructure state banks. However, this reform remains unfinished in many MENA countries, where state banks still dominate financial intermediation and the restructuring of state banks has not gone far enough, as indicated by the large volume of nonperforming loans. Private banks have increased their market share, but entry remains restricted in many countries in the region, which has the highest ratio of denied applications for bank licenses among all emerging regions. Nonbank Financial Institutions The insurance sector is very small, but most countries are making efforts to develop it, by passing new legislation and strengthening the insurance supervisor. Morocco s insurance industry is the most developed in the region, as a result of regulatory reforms implemented in the past decade, but the sector is growing in many countries as a result of more supportive legislation, albeit from a very small base. Premiums are reaching reasonable levels in countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia. Private pension funds are negligible in most MENA countries. Egypt and Jordan have adopted reforms that may promote the growth of this sector, and GCC countries are planning to expand the private pension coverage of expatriate staff. Public pension funds are large in many countries but have not yet contributed to capital market development. Morocco and Jordan have pioneered reforms that have improved the governance, disclosure, and investment policies of public funds. Mutual funds have reached a meaningful size only in Bahrain and Morocco, but the sector seems to be growing in Egypt, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia as a result of regulatory reforms adopted in recent years. Capital Markets The stock of government debt is large in many countries, especially outside the GCC, but government debt markets remain generally undeveloped, and no country has been able to build a reliable and liquid benchmark yield curve. Egypt and Morocco have made the most progress in developing this critical market; they are (Box continues on the next page.)

7 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page 41 Introduction 41 BOX 1.1 (continued) the only two countries in the region included in key international bond indexes, albeit with small shares. Egypt in particular has made impressive improvements in its debt management strategy in recent years, attracting greater interest from foreign investors as a result. Additional efforts to develop this key market are needed in Egypt and other countries in the region. Private Fixed-Income Markets No country outside the GCC has developed private fixed-income markets. Morocco and Tunisia pioneered legislation on mortgage-backed securities, but few securitization transactions were concluded, and the nascent markets stalled as a result of the subprime crisis and structural flaws in the securitization chain. Morocco is in the process of developing legislation on mortgage-covered bonds; it may be the first MENA country to develop this key instrument for housing finance. Within the GCC, there have been large headline issues by sovereign and corporate entities of conventional and sukuk (Islamic financial instruments) bonds in recent years, but issues remain sporadic and small as a share of GDP. Trading in these securities is limited, but the Dubai International Financial Center provides a relatively deep market in private debt securities, and listing requirements have generated a discipline of disclosure. Equity Markets Equity market capitalization is high in many MENA countries, especially in the GCC. Initial public offerings (IPOs) and mandatory listings for financial institutions have increased total listings and the size of the equity market. Many countries have made significant efforts to improve the regulatory framework and strengthen the autonomy of capital market authorities (recent examples include Egypt, Kuwait, and Morocco). Syria very recently started creating its equity market: the Damascus Securities Exchange was established in 2009 and became a full member of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) in June The number of listed companies and financial intermediaries doubled in the first year of operations, thanks in part to mandatory listings of financial institutions. These advances notwithstanding, the development of equity markets remains an important component of the financial development agenda in most if not all MENA countries. Market capitalization is still dominated by financial institutions and infrastructure companies, with only a modest presence of industry and services. Turnover ratios are high by international comparison, but the quality of price discovery is still weak, as indicated by the very strong co-movement of stock prices. Turnover seems dominated by uninformed small retail investors in many countries. Market development will require the build-up of a private domestic institutional investor base, reforms in the operations of large state investors, and greater participation by foreign investors. Source: Authors.

8 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page Financial Access and Stability playing field between state and private enterprises and within the private sector. MENA countries have large banking systems but also the highest rates of credit concentration in the world. The lack of access to finance affects younger private enterprises which, given greater access to credit, would be able to grow more rapidly and generate more employment opportunities as well as the large number of young households looking for affordable housing (Ayyagari, Beck, and Demirgüç-Kunt 2003; IFC 2010). Restricted access to finance in MENA reflects many factors, including weaknesses in financial infrastructure, insufficient competition in the banking sector, regulatory tolerance of large exposures and connected lending, and the lack of nonbanking institutions and markets providing alternative sources of finance. As this report shows, these factors are closely connected and have to be addressed jointly. The structural weaknesses of MENA s financial sectors imply that access to finance may remain restricted even with the full recovery of credit activity. Although the consolidation of credit recovery in the region is an important short-run policy objective, there is no guarantee that it would benefit a wide range of economic agents. Large segments of the population and the enterprise sector were deprived from finance before the crisis and may remain deprived in the absence of substantive reforms. Countries in the region thus face an ambitious reform agenda capable of reversing two decades of relatively slow output growth and employment generation. As stressed in the companion flagship report for private sector development (World Bank 2009) and the regional diagnostics of MENA s growth performance (World Bank 2011), overcoming this poor historical performance will require reforms on several fronts, including financial, fiscal, trade, and labor reforms. Most important, it will also require much greater efforts to fully implement recent and future reforms and ensure a level playing field through the reform of public institutions and regulatory agencies dealing with the private sector. This, in turn, entails an agenda of governance, disclosure, and accountability of public institutions. Financial development should be a central component of MENA s growth agenda. 2 Addressing the problem of restricted access to finance will entail the design and implementation of a comprehensive financial development agenda that includes improvements in financial infrastructure (credit information and creditor rights); measures to enhance banking competition and address the historical connections between large banks and large industrial groups; and measures to diversify the financial system through the development of nonbanking institutions, instruments, and markets that are currently negligible or nonexistent. MENA policy makers must ensure that financial systems remain resilient as access is expanded and new risks emerge. Doing so implies the need to implement a complementary financial stability agenda that entails improvements in

9 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page 43 Introduction 43 bank governance and a stronger architecture of financial regulation and supervision. Main Objectives and Approach of the Report The main objective of this report is to provide a diagnostic of MENA financial systems and define a roadmap that will guide policy makers in shaping inclusive and resilient financial systems. The diagnostic covers all the dimensions of financial development, including depth, diversity, access, efficiency, and stability. The report is also meant to be a vehicle for policy dialogue with member countries, donors, and international organizations. The report highlights the common challenges faced by MENA countries while also recognizing differences and tailoring its policy recommendations to the initial conditions in subregions and countries. Countries in the region share several common challenges in their financial development agendas, as shown throughout this report. However, significant differences across the main subregions and individual countries also exist must also be taken into account in the design of financial development agendas. This report classifies countries in the region into three major subgroups, according to their per capita income and key characteristics of their financial systems (table 1.1). The composition of country groups is similar to those used in other World Bank reports, although the criteria for classification differ in some key aspects. GCC countries form a well-defined group, because of their high per capita income, large banking systems, and mostly private-led systems (table 1.2). The second group includes low- to middleincome non-gcc countries that have moderate to large banking systems led by private banks. The third group includes middle-income non-gcc countries that have banking systems of moderate size led by state banks. The criteria for country classification prioritize income levels, ownership structures, and other characteristics of financial systems, but they yield TABLE 1.1 Composition of Main Country Subgroups Subgroup GCC Non-GCC with private-led banking systems Non-GCC with state-led banking systems Economies Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates Djibouti; Arab Republic of Egypt; Jordan; Lebanon; Morocco; Tunisia; West Bank and Gaza; Yemen, Rep. Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Syrian Arab Republic, Iran Source: World Bank staff.

10 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page Financial Access and Stability TABLE 1.2 Financial Sector Characteristics of Main Country Subgroups Subgroup Per capita income Size of banking system Share of state banks GCC High Large Small to moderate Size of nonbank financial institutions Small Size of equity markets Large capitalization, high bank share Size of private fixed-income markets Negligible Access to finance Moderate to restricted Non-GCC with private-led banking systems Low to middle Moderate to large Small to moderate Small Moderate/large capitalization, high bank share Negligible Generally restricted Non-GCC with state-led banking systems Middle Moderate Large Small Small capitalization Negligible Generally restricted Source: World Bank staff. essentially the same country groupings used in other reports that rely on the status of oil exporter/importer as the major criterion. Each subgroup has important unique and shared characteristics (table 1.2). Banking systems are large in the GCC, moderate to large in the second group, and moderate in the third group. State banks play a dominant role in the third group. The number of common features is also striking. The size of nonbank financial institutions is very small across all groups, with few exceptions. Equity markets look large, but banks account for a large share of market capitalization, and the free float is small in many countries. Private fixed-income markets are negligible in all countries, and access remains restricted in most countries, even where the banking system is large by international standards. Building Blocks of the Report This report benefitted from early consultations with countries in the region and partnerships with regional financial institutions. The flagship team conducted early consultations with policy makers, regulators, and market participants, in order to discuss the scope of the report and identify the main policy challenges. The flagship team also benefitted substantially from partnerships with regional financial institutions, especially the Arab Monetary Fund, the Islamic Development Bank, the Union of Arab Banks, and the Union of Arab Stock Exchanges. The partner institutions contributed in many forms, including responding to joint surveys, providing data and research material, contributing background papers, and participating in joint workshops.

11 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page 45 Introduction 45 The report builds on several background papers covering the main segments of MENA s financial systems as well as the main crosscutting themes. The background papers review the problems in financial infrastructure, examine the structure and performance of the banking sector, and assess the lack of progress in developing nonbank financial institutions. 3 They also examine the equity market and the problems in developing government debt markets within and outside the GCC. Several background papers cover special themes, such as financial inclusion; microfinance; and small and medium enterprise, housing, and Islamic finance. Structure of the Report This report comprises 10 chapters. Chapter 2 examines the impact of the global financial crisis and recent regional events on MENA countries, with a focus on financial systems. Chapter 3 provides an overview of the size and structure of the region s financial systems, including a comprehensive international benchmarking analysis of financial indicators. Chapter 4 examines the performance of MENA financial systems, with a focus on access to finance. This critical chapter documents poor access outcomes with a battery of access indicators. Chapter 5 arguably the core chapter of this report examines the main factors that have restricted access to finance in MENA. Chapter 6 examines one of the region s greatest weaknesses: financial infrastructure. It includes an analysis of credit reporting systems, collateral regimes, and insolvency regimes. Chapter 7 examines the evolution of banking systems and the main regulatory challenges in this core sector. Chapter 8 reviews why nonbank financial institutions (insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds, leasing, and factoring) have not developed in the region. Chapter 9 examines the mixed development of equity markets and the lack of development of fixed-income markets, with a focus on government debt markets. Chapter 10 provides a roadmap for crafting more inclusive financial systems capable of contributing to improved growth and employment performance. It also highlights the measures needed to ensure that these systems remain resilient as access is expanded and new risks emerge. Notes 1. An extensive literature examines the causes of the financial crisis and proposed reforms in regulation and supervision. See, for example, BIS (2010), Haldane (2010), and U.K. Treasury (2011).

12 FAS_35-46.qxd 8/31/11 8:11 PM Page Financial Access and Stability 2. There is an extensive empirical literature showing that finance matters for growth. A. Demirgüç-Kunt and R. Levine (2008) provide a recent review of the literature. 3. All the papers are available at References Ayyagari, M., T. Beck, A. Demirgüç-Kunt Small and Medium Enterprises Across the Globe: A New Database. Policy Research Working Paper 3127, World Bank, Washington, DC. BIS (Bank for International Settlements) Basel III: A Global Regulatory Framework for More Resilient Banks and Banking Systems. Basel: BIS. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., and R. Levine Finance, Financial Sector Policies, and Long Run Growth. M. Spence Growth Commission Background Paper, No 11, World Bank, Washington, DC. Haldane, A Curbing the Credit Cycle. London: Bank of England. IFC (International Finance Corporation) G20 Report: Scaling-Up SME Access to Finance. Washington, DC: IFC. Noland, M., and H. Pack The Arab Economies in a Changing World. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics. U.K. Treasury A New Approach to Financial Regulation: Building a Stronger System. London: U.K. Treasury. World Bank From Privilege to Competition: Unlocking Private-Led Growth in the Middle-East and North Africa. MENA Private Sector Development Flagship Report. Washington, DC: World Bank Middle East and North Africa Region 2011 Economic Developments and Prospects: Sustaining the Recovery and Looking Beyond. Washington, DC: World Bank.