IMF World Economic Outlook with a focus on India and Emerging Market Comparators

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "IMF World Economic Outlook with a focus on India and Emerging Market Comparators"

Transcription

1 IMF World Economic Outlook with a focus on India and Emerging Market Comparators Thomas Richardson IMF Senior Resident Representative India/Nepal/Bhutan Meghnad Desai Academy of Economics October 9, 2015

2 Outline 1. World Economic Outlook 2. Uneven Recovery in Advanced Economies (AE s) 3. Emerging Market (EM) Volatility Brazil, China Financial market implications 4. What does this mean for India? 5. Conclusions 2

3 World Economic Outlook October 2015 WEO Real GDP Growth Projections (percent change from a year earlier) 2015 (Oct 2015) 2015 (Apr 2015) World U.S. Euro Area Japan Brazil Russia India* China (Oct 2015) 2016 (Apr 2015) *For India 2015 is FY2015/16, and 2016 is FY2016/17. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook October 2015 (

4 Risks to global growth tilted to the downside 4

5 EM growth forecast revisions are mainly down 5

6 Asia continues to drive global growth Global: Real GDP Growth (Year-on-year; percent change) Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Emerging and Developing Europe Euro area United States United Kingdom Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database. 6

7 but there are headwinds: consider volatility and correction in China Shanghai Composite Index and volume / volatility (percent) 7

8 Uneven Recovery in Advanced Economies Healthy recovery in the US Helped by lower oil prices Stronger housing and labor markets Should offset stronger dollar Fed lift off is likely Modest pick-up in the Euro area Again, lower oil prices help Sentiment improving, but potential growth is weak Bank lending slowly recovering Japan to see gradual rise in growth QQE combined with lower commodity prices to help Second quarter was disappointing Long term fiscal concerns remain 8

9 US: Ongoing recovery 9

10 US: expected Fed lift-off could imply tighter financial conditions outside the US as well United States: Interest Rates Fed Funds Rate Fed Funds Rate: September 2015 FOMC Median Fed Funds Rate: Market Expectation Term Premium (10Y-3M yield) Forecast horizon 0.0 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr Jul Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Source: Bloomberg LP. 10

11 Euro Area: Slow improvements and Greek decoupling 11

12 Euro Area: Improving credit but headwinds to QE 12

13 Japan: Disappointing 2015 Q2 13

14 Japan: persisting concerns about fiscal consolidation Japan: Public Finances (Percent of GDP) 300 Structural primary deficit (RHS) Projection 16 Japan: Labor Market 3 Projections Gross debt Nominal Wage Bill Real Wage Bill Job opening to application ratio (RHS) 2013Q1 2013Q4 2014Q3 2015Q2 2016Q1 2016Q4 0.8 Sources: CAO; IMF staff estimates Sources: Haver analytics and IMF staff estimates.

15 Emerging Market Volatility Global financial risks are rotating toward EMs and market liquidity

16 as seen in market turmoil of recent months 16

17 At the same time, many EMs are in the late stages of the credit cycle 17

18 while EM corporate fundamentals are deteriorating 18

19 even as EM corporate exposure to FX and commodities risk is high in some countries 19

20 Weak commodity prices: help some countries and hurt some countries 20

21 Forecasts are for commodity prices to stay low 21

22 due both to higher production and weaker demand from China 22

23 Commodity exporters are vulnerable to price shocks 23

24 Commodity price shifts have driven CAD movements 24

25 CAD improvement/deterioration is linked to net commodity export position 25

26 Related: a number of countries are exposed to China 26

27 China: rebalancing, but we shouldn t overstate the slowdown 27

28 China: stock market correction, but still up over 2014, while RMB depreciation was modest China: Stock Market Performance 6000 Shanghai Composite Index China: Exchange Rates 140 Real Effective Exchange Rate (2010=100) Bilateral Exchange Rates against U.S. Dollar (LHS) /1/2014 3/1/2014 5/1/2014 7/1/2014 9/1/ /1/2014 1/1/2015 3/1/2015 5/1/2015 7/1/2015 9/1/ M1 2006M1 2007M1 2008M1 2009M1 2010M1 2011M1 2012M1 2013M1 2014M1 2015M1 Source: Bloomberg L.P. Data as of Sep 21, Source: IMF staff calculations. Data as of August,

29 China: keep exchange rate and reserve movements in perspective 29

30 In China, corporate leverage remains high in the real estate sector, and among SOEs Share of Total Corporate Liabilities in Real Estate and Construction, by Leverage Ratios Group (In percent) Leverage <1 Between 1 and 2 Between % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Between 3-4 Bigger than 4 High leveraged firms (36 SOEs; 29 private firms) Sources: WIND database; and IMF staff estimates. 126 firms 30

31 Large spillovers from China are due to its increased trade linkages in Asia Domestic Value-added Embedded in Exports to China (In percent of total exports of each economy) 16 Latest Taiwan POC Hong Kong SAR Malaysia Korea Sources: OECD, and IMF staff calculations. Singapore Thailand Vietnam Philippines Australia Indonesia Japan New Zealand India 31

32 Propagation to Asia from growth shocks in China has therefore strengthened Estimated Impact of a 1 percent Growth Shock from China on Partner Country s Growth (Percentage points) Asia ASEAN5 Korea Vietnam India Source: IMF staff calculations. Note: ASEAN5 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. 32

33 Partly due to China s slowdown, global trade growth has weakened 33

34 But Brazil faces a very difficult outlook too 34

35 For Asia, external vulnerabilities are mitigated by strong CADs and healthy reserves Current Account Balance (In percent of GDP) Japan Australia New Zealand Hong Kong SAR Korea Singapore Taiwan POC Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam China India Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) database. EMs Latin America EMs Europe other EMs Total Reserves (In percent of GDP; excluding gold) Latest End of 2014 Japan Australia New Zealand Hong Kong SAR Korea Singapore Taiwan POC Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam China India EMs Latin America EMs Europe other EMs Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) database; IMF, IFS database; and IMF staff calculations. 35

36 Yet even in Asia, corporate vulnerability to potential shocks adds to liquidity and solvency risks Debt at Risk: Share of Debt Held by Firms with Interest Coverage Ratio<1.5 (in percent of GDP) Scenario 1: 30 percent depreciation Scenario 2: 30 percent increse in borrowing cost Scenario 3: 20 percent decline in earnings China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Shares were calculated by applying the firm level debt-at-risk ratios from the Orbis database to the country-level corporate debt as share of GDP.

37 Indeed, portfolio equity outflows from Asian EMs surged over the summer Asia excl. Japan and China: Cumulative Equity and Bond Flows 1 (In billions of U.S. dollars; positive=inflow) Summer 2015 Equity Taper Tantrum Bond t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t+10 t+12 t+14 t+16 t+18 t+20 t+22 t+24 t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t+10 t+12 t+14 t+16 t+18 t+20 t+22 t+24 Sources: EPFR Global; Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations. 1 Includes exchange traded fund flows and mutual fund flows. Note: t is mid-may 2013 for the Taper Tantrum episode, and July 1, 2015 for the Summer 2015 episode; weekly data; data as of September 11,

38 EMs: transmission channels of shocks 38

39 What does all this mean for India? Investor appetite for Indian risk remains healthy So far, spillovers have been limited for India though equity outflows picked up over the summer Many planned reforms will be growth- and sentiment-positive GST, Aadhaar, labor market, move to inflation targeting, PSU bank corporate governance, etc. But there are a couple of challenges

40 India: three problems made it one of the fragile 5 in 2013 Current Account; Fiscal Balance; and Inflation (In percent of GDP) General gov. balance Current account balance Inflation (RHS) 2012/ / / /16 Sources: Haver Analytics; Reserve Bank of India; and India Ministry of Finance

41 The fiscal sector remains a risk for India: GoI spends about as much as the rest of EM Asia

42 Yet India has much higher general government deficits

43 Implication: India s government sector is under-resourced

44 While corporate vulnerabilities remain elevated in India Nonperforming Loans and Loan Loss Provisions (In percent of total gross loans) 12 Nonperforming loans Restructured loans Provisions Brazil China India Indonesia South Africa Source: IMF, Financial Soundness Indicators 44

45 Conclusions Risks to global outlook tilted to the downside Global economy is recovering but it s slow and uneven Impact on EM s is differentiated Financial conditions are tightening exacerbating impact of weaker commodity prices for exporters India is the world s fastest growing large economy Inflation and CAD are down but fiscal space is lacking (need revenue reforms) Corporate balance sheets are a worry 45

46 Thank you Want to know more? 46 on global outlook on our work in Asia what we do in India Follow on

47 IMF flagship publications

World Economic Outlook

World Economic Outlook World Economic Outlook Transitions and Tensions Rupa Duttagupta Deputy Division Chief Research Department, IMF United Nations, Project LINK Meetings, October 21, 213 1 Global growth dynamics are in transition

More information

CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1

CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 February 1, 1 BIS reporting banks continued to scale back their funding to Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe () in Q3 13, at broadly the same pace as in Q 13,

More information

Caucasus and Central Asia: Oil Price Decline and Regional Spillovers Darken the Outlook

Caucasus and Central Asia: Oil Price Decline and Regional Spillovers Darken the Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia: Oil Price Decline and Regional Spillovers Darken the Outlook Economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) will continue to decelerate in 215 mainly as a consequence

More information

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

More information

Japan s Economic Challenges

Japan s Economic Challenges Japan s Economic Challenges LUC EVERAERT ASIA PACIFIC DEPARTMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO JANUARY 18, 216 1 Global Overview I. Global outlook and risks II. Prospects for Japan III.

More information

Monetary Policy Outlook in a Negative Rates Environment Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar

Monetary Policy Outlook in a Negative Rates Environment Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 15 April 2016 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Macroeconomic Policy in Mexico 3 Evolution and Outlook

More information

UNITED KINGDOM. United Kingdom

UNITED KINGDOM. United Kingdom UNITED KINGDOM Growth has slowed, and is projected to be 1¾ per cent in 216. Uncertainty about the outcome of the end-june 216 referendum, which could lead to an exit of the United Kingdom from the European

More information

The Future Growth of Stocks and Investments in Thailand

The Future Growth of Stocks and Investments in Thailand 35 th Bangkok International Motor Show 2014 The Future Growth of Stocks and Investments in Thailand Mr. Charamporn Jotikasthira President The Stock Exchange of Thailand March 2014 I. SET: Overview The

More information

Outlook. for theus Dollar

Outlook. for theus Dollar Outlook for theus Dollar The US dollar staged one of its most powerful rallies in August, with the 1 rising nearly 6% 2 that month. The breadth of the rally was also impressive, with the currency rising

More information

Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Period

Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Period Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Period A. Hakan Kara Research and Monetary Policy Department EAF Conference October 10, 2011 Contents I. Changing View of Central Banking II. Capital Flows to Emerging

More information

International Monetary Policy Transmission Előd Takáts and Abraham Vela Bank for International Settlements. BIS Papers No 78. Carl Musozya.

International Monetary Policy Transmission Előd Takáts and Abraham Vela Bank for International Settlements. BIS Papers No 78. Carl Musozya. International Monetary Policy Transmission Előd Takáts and Abraham Vela Bank for International Settlements. BIS Papers No 78 Carl Musozya. Introduction. Effects of advanced economy monetary policy on the

More information

Mexico: The challenges of capital inflows. Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor

Mexico: The challenges of capital inflows. Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor Adam Smith Seminar, Schloss Spiez, Switzerland, June 26, 2013 Contents 1 Taxonomy of capital inflows 2 Risks and the prevention of problems 3 Economic outlook 2 Like other

More information

2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook

2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy January 2016 2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook After Struggling in 2015, Global Equity Markets likely

More information

Restoring Confidence without Harming Recovery

Restoring Confidence without Harming Recovery FOR RELEASE: In Hong Kong (HKT): 11:3 am, July, 1 In Washington (EDT): 11:3 pm, July 7, 1 Restoring Confidence without Harming Recovery growth is projected at about ½ percent in 1 and ¼ percent in 11.

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 214 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Why rapid debt growth in China might be a risk Is China facing an imminent financial crisis? The rapid expansion of credit in China since

More information

Global Steel Market Outlook

Global Steel Market Outlook Global Steel Market Outlook OECD Steel Committee Meeting Paris, 11-12 May 215 This document is for worldsteel member companies only. Please do not distribute it to third parties. 2 1 Steel Demand Forecast

More information

The Mexican Economy: Facts and Opportunities

The Mexican Economy: Facts and Opportunities Manuel Sánchez Santander Global Fixed Income Summit London, England, September 20, 2012 Contents 1 Structural features 2 Recent developments and outlook 3 Inflation and monetary policy 4 Economic challenges

More information

Asian Stock Markets in 2015:

Asian Stock Markets in 2015: Asian Stock Markets in 2015: Expected trends and the role of Asian Funds Passports Dr. Andrew Freris CEO, Ecognosis Advisory Ltd March 2015 1 Summary, Part I The Asian markets which outperformed in 2014,

More information

The Mexican Economy in the Global Economic Juncture

The Mexican Economy in the Global Economic Juncture Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México Santander EM Day, Macro & Corporates Conference London, 7 June 2016 Outline 1 2 3 4 5 External Conditions Evolution of the Mexican Economy Inflation

More information

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

More information

Global Economic Outlook with Focus on China and Chinese Insurance Market

Global Economic Outlook with Focus on China and Chinese Insurance Market Global Economic Outlook with Focus on China and Chinese Insurance Market 3 rd International China Liability Regimes Conference 21 August 2013, Beijing Kurt Karl Swiss Re Global economic outlook with focus

More information

Interest Rate Forecast

Interest Rate Forecast Interest Rate Forecast Economics December Highlights Fed normalization begins More policy moves in China Canada s uneven economy BoC on hold, lower CAD Per cent 6 4 3 2 1 U.S. Federal Funds Rate A continuation

More information

Recent Developments in Local Currency Bond Markets (LCBMs) 1. October 2013

Recent Developments in Local Currency Bond Markets (LCBMs) 1. October 2013 Recent Developments in Local Currency Bond Markets (LCBMs) 1 October 2013 Given the importance of local currency bond markets (LCBMs), including in the context of the work now underway on financing for

More information

October 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

October 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy October 2015 Market Volatility likely to Remain Elevated on China Growth Concerns & Fed Rate Uncertainty. Stocks

More information

Why Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession?

Why Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession? IMF STAFF POSITION NOTE March 18, 9 SPN/9/5 Why Has Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession? Martin Sommer I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Why Has Been Hit

More information

P R E S S R E L E A S E

P R E S S R E L E A S E Hong Kong, May 22, 2013 Survey reveals corporate overdue payment in Asia Pacific region deteriorated in 2012 - Companies are less optimistic about recovery of global economy in 2013 A survey of corporate

More information

Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016

Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016 Credit Suisse, Macro Conference April 19, Outline 1 Inflation and Monetary Policy 2 Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy 3 Final Remarks 2 In line with its constitutional mandate, the

More information

An Overview of Offshore RMB Market. Nov 2013

An Overview of Offshore RMB Market. Nov 2013 An Overview of Offshore RMB Market Nov 2013 Contents 1. Outlook of RMB Internationalisation 2. Implications for Offshore RMB Bonds 2 Section 1 Outlook of RMB Internationalisation 3 RMB The next international

More information

OFFICE OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION (OREI)

OFFICE OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION (OREI) No. 8 August 213 Policy Brief OFFICE OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION (OREI) Key Points: The comments from the US Federal Reserve Chairman that quantitative easing could soon be tapering off resulted in

More information

The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries

The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries Tatiana Fic National Institute of Economic and Social Research Objective The objective

More information

Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr.

Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr. Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr. Assistant Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank 1 Overseas Development Institute London, 12 April 2012 Key messages Developing Asia to maintain growth momentum despite weak global

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan Stronger Data Lead to Upward Revisions in Purchase Originations Forecast for 2015 and 2016 MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: July

More information

Interim results Leading the way in Asia, Africa and the Middle East

Interim results Leading the way in Asia, Africa and the Middle East 1 Interim results 2009 Leading the way in Asia, Africa and the Middle East 2 Forward looking statements This presentation contains or incorporates by reference forward-looking statements regarding the

More information

2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery?

2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? 2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? Bart Van Craeynest Hoofdeconoom Petercam Bart.vancraeynest@petercam.be 1 2012: crises looking for answers Global slowdown No 2008-0909 rerun Crises

More information

CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1

CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 January 26, 215 Key developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit BIS reporting banks reduced their external positions vis-à-vis Central, Eastern and

More information

DOMINION GLOBALIZATION WORKSHOP

DOMINION GLOBALIZATION WORKSHOP DOMINION GLOBALIZATION WORKSHOP Financial Sector Dennis Encarnation Harvard University For more information, please contact me at www.encarnation.com SERVICES Financial Services & Capital Markets Topics:

More information

Mexico in the face of slowing emerging economies. Manuel Sánchez

Mexico in the face of slowing emerging economies. Manuel Sánchez Manuel Sánchez Adam Smith Seminar Central Bank of Hungary, Budapest, November 10, 2015 Contents 1 Soft economic rebound 2 Coping with higher risk aversion 3 Tamed inflation 2 Since 2014, global growth

More information

2016 FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK

2016 FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK 216 FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK 216 FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK MODERATE VALUE AMIDST SPECTRE OF RATE HIKES Ooi Boon Peng Chief Investment Officer Fixed Income Boon Peng is responsible for overseeing the management

More information

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial

More information

Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia Bonds

Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia Bonds Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia s Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia s Drawing upon different drivers for performance, Asia fixed income may improve risk-return

More information

Assessing Sources of Funding for Insurance Risk Based Capital

Assessing Sources of Funding for Insurance Risk Based Capital Assessing Sources of Funding for Insurance Risk Based Capital Louis Lee Session Number: (ex. MBR4) AGENDA for Today 1. Motivations of Capital Needs 2. Practical Risk Based Capital Funding Options 3. Types

More information

Trends in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

Trends in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Trends in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows This article briefly examines recent trends in foreign direct investment in Australia, both in the context of the longer-term perspective and relative to the

More information

BIS CEMLA Roundtable on Fiscal Policy, public debt management and government bond markets: issues for central banks

BIS CEMLA Roundtable on Fiscal Policy, public debt management and government bond markets: issues for central banks BIS CEMLA Roundtable on Fiscal Policy, public debt management and government bond markets: issues for central banks Is monetary policy constrained by fiscal policy? by Carlos Montoro 26-27 November 212

More information

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016 Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global World GDP is forecast to grow only 2.4% in 2016, weighed down by emerging market weakness and increasing uncertainty. 3 Eurozone The modest eurozone

More information

OECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change 2015 2016. September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook

OECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change 2015 2016. September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial

More information

ASEAN Capital Market Integration and Lessons from the European Union

ASEAN Capital Market Integration and Lessons from the European Union ASEAN Capital Market Integration and Lessons from the European Union 44 th IAFEI World Congress: Global Recovery Amidst Reforms Makati Shangri-la 16 October 2014 Thiam Hee Ng, Senior Economist Asian Development

More information

Monetary Policy in the Post Crisis Period: The Turkish Perspective

Monetary Policy in the Post Crisis Period: The Turkish Perspective Monetary Policy in the Post Crisis Period: The Turkish Perspective Hakan Kara Economic Research Forum Conference İstanbul April 19, 2013 Outline 1. Motivation of the New Policy Framework 2. New Instruments

More information

Standard Chartered today releases its Interim Management Statement for the third quarter of 2015.

Standard Chartered today releases its Interim Management Statement for the third quarter of 2015. Standard Chartered PLC Interim Management Statement 3 November 2015 Standard Chartered today releases its Interim Management Statement for the third quarter of 2015. Bill Winters, Group Chief Executive,

More information

Impact of Global Financial Crisis on South Asia

Impact of Global Financial Crisis on South Asia Impact of Global Financial Crisis on South Asia February 17, 2009 - The global financial crisis hit South Asia at a time when it had barely recovered from severe terms of trade shock resulting from the

More information

UNIT TRUST Risk Rating

UNIT TRUST Risk Rating 1 * LYXOR ASSET MANAGEMENT ADEQUITY TRUST- LYXOR CHINA A FUND Medium-to-high 2 * LYXOR ASSET MANAGEMENT ADEQUITY TRUST- LYXOR DYNAMIC WATER FUND Medium-to-high 3 * LYXOR ASSET MANAGEMENT ADEQUITY TRUST-

More information

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6 South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the

More information

Philippines. Real Sector. Growth slowed in the first half, then picked up in the third quarter.

Philippines. Real Sector. Growth slowed in the first half, then picked up in the third quarter. Philippines Real Sector 12 9 6 3-3 Figure 1: GDP Growth Rates (%) -6 q-o-q annualized, seasonally adjusted y-o-y Growth slowed in the first half, then picked up in the third quarter. Economic growth slowed

More information

When the last World Economic Outlook

When the last World Economic Outlook Following a series of adverse shocks in the first half of 23, there are now increasing signs of a renewed recovery, and the balance of risks in April, tilted well to the downside has improved significantly.

More information

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC BULLETIN JUNE QUARTER 2012

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC BULLETIN JUNE QUARTER 2012 BANK OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA MEDIA R E L E A S E 9 th October 2012 QUARTERLY ECONOMIC BULLETIN JUNE QUARTER 2012 Mr. Loi M. Bakani, Governor of the Bank of Papua New Guinea (Bank of PNG), today released the

More information

Chapter 1: Economic commentary

Chapter 1: Economic commentary Compendium: Chapter 1: Economic commentary This section of the Pink Book provides an examination of recent trends, main movements and international comparisons for a range of information contained in subsequent

More information

Chapter-2. The Global Economic Situation and India s External Sector

Chapter-2. The Global Economic Situation and India s External Sector Chapter-2 The Global Economic Situation and India s External Sector Introduction Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy continues to struggle. Whilst a weak global

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111 Risks and Scenarios Introduction The forecasts presented in the Economic and Tax Outlook chapter incorporate a number of judgements about how both the New Zealand and the world economies evolve. Some judgements

More information

The evolution of New Zealand s trade flows

The evolution of New Zealand s trade flows The evolution of New Zealand s trade flows Victoria Yili Zhang New Zealand s trading patterns have changed considerably in recent years. Our trade is increasingly oriented towards the Asia-Pacific region,

More information

BRIEFING ON EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS

BRIEFING ON EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS OECD 2010, Briefing on exchange rate developments, OECD Economics Department Briefing, October 2010. BRIEFING ON EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS Economics Department Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

More information

Highlights of 1H FY2015 Results. November 18, 2015

Highlights of 1H FY2015 Results. November 18, 2015 Highlights of 1H FY2015 Results November 18, 2015 Table of Contents 1. Trend of business results 3. Domestic life insurance Summary of 1H FY2015 results 3 Overview of 1H FY2015 results Himawari Life 27

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

Global Markets Update Signature Global Advisors

Global Markets Update Signature Global Advisors SIGNATURE GLOBAL ADVISORS MARKETS UPDATE AUGUST 3, 2011 The following comments come from an internal interview with Chief Investment Officer, Eric Bushell. They represent Signature s current market views

More information

CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1

CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 November 4, 214 Key Developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit In 214:Q2, BIS reporting banks reduced their external positions to CESEE countries

More information

The global financial crisis is already causing a

The global financial crisis is already causing a Overseas Development Institute Background Note October 008 The global financial crisis and developing countries Which countries are at risk and what can be done? By Dirk Willem te Velde The global financial

More information

FISCAL POLICY: HAS BRAZIL GRADUATED FROM PRO- CYCLICAL POLICIES? Marcio Holland Secretary of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance, Brazil

FISCAL POLICY: HAS BRAZIL GRADUATED FROM PRO- CYCLICAL POLICIES? Marcio Holland Secretary of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance, Brazil FISCAL POLICY: HAS BRAZIL GRADUATED FROM PRO- CYCLICAL POLICIES? Marcio Holland Secretary of Economic Policy Ministry of Finance, Brazil XXXIX Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries

More information

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT 1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1

More information

ANNEX TABLES Table 1. Revenue by ICT Type Revenue * Share to Total Revenues Growth Rate ICT Type 2004 2005 2004 2005 (in percent)

ANNEX TABLES Table 1. Revenue by ICT Type Revenue * Share to Total Revenues Growth Rate ICT Type 2004 2005 2004 2005 (in percent) ANNEX TABLES Table 1. Revenue by Revenue * Share to Revenues 2004 2005 2004 2005 Contact Centers 32,904.1 54,295.1 44.4 49.4 65.0 Medical Transcription 236.7 466.2 0.3 0.4 97.0 Animation 694.2 939.1 0.9

More information

The Use of RMB in International Transactions:

The Use of RMB in International Transactions: The Use of RMB in International Transactions: -Background, Development and Prospect JIN Zhongxia 金中夏 Head Research Institute People s Bank of China The early stage of cross-border RMB usage RMB as settlement

More information

Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013

Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013 Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013 World Stock Market Capitalization Year-end 2012 18.5% 9.6% United States International: Other Europe United Kingdom Japan Other Pacific

More information

Challenges for Capital Market Development in Asia

Challenges for Capital Market Development in Asia Challenges for Capital Market Development in Asia Osaka, 30 October 2014 Masamichi Kono Vice Minister for International Affairs President, Asian Financial Partnership Center Financial Services Agency,

More information

MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL ASSESSMENT

MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL ASSESSMENT Public Sector Financial Management Program (RRP SAM 46384) A. BACKGROUND MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL ASSESSMENT 1. Samoa is composed of about 10 islands, 4 inhabited, and several uninhabited islets situated

More information

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn

More information

MAPFRE in 2014. Antonio Huertas. Presentation of Annual Results February 11, 2015. MAPFRE Chairman & CEO

MAPFRE in 2014. Antonio Huertas. Presentation of Annual Results February 11, 2015. MAPFRE Chairman & CEO MAPFRE in 2014 Presentation of Annual Results February 11, 2015 Antonio Huertas MAPFRE Chairman & CEO 2014 Results MAPFRE's results are excellent: 845 million euros in profits 2013 2014 % Consolidated

More information

Institutional Investor Asset Management in a Low Return/High Risk World

Institutional Investor Asset Management in a Low Return/High Risk World Institutional Investor Asset Management in a Low Return/High Risk World Dr. Eliot Kalter President, E M Strategies Senior Fellow, The Fletcher School EKalter@EMStrategies.com Executive Summary I. Global

More information

RIA Novosti Press Meeting. Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges for Russia in 2012. Odd Per Brekk Senior Resident Representative.

RIA Novosti Press Meeting. Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges for Russia in 2012. Odd Per Brekk Senior Resident Representative. RIA Novosti Press Meeting Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges for Russia in 2012 Odd Per Brekk Senior Resident Representative January 26, 2012 This morning I will start with introductory remarks on

More information

SEPTEMBER 2015 ECB STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1

SEPTEMBER 2015 ECB STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 SEPTEMBER 2015 STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 1. EURO AREA OUTLOOK: OVERVIEW AND KEY FEATURES The recovery in activity in the euro area is expected to continue, albeit at a somewhat

More information

U.S. Fixed Income: Potential Interest Rate Shock Scenario

U.S. Fixed Income: Potential Interest Rate Shock Scenario U.S. Fixed Income: Potential Interest Rate Shock Scenario Executive Summary Income-oriented investors have become accustomed to an environment of consistently low interest rates. Yields on the benchmark

More information

1. International Economic Developments

1. International Economic Developments 1. International Economic Developments Overall growth in Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) was little changed in 1 at a bit below its decade average (Graph 1.1). The US and euro area economies

More information

Financial Information

Financial Information Financial Information Solid results with in all key financial metrics of 23.6 bn, up 0.4% like-for like Adjusted EBITA margin up 0.3 pt on organic basis Net profit up +4% to 1.9 bn Record Free Cash Flow

More information

5. Foreign Exchange Market

5. Foreign Exchange Market CBC Annual Report 5. Foreign Exchange Market Slight Appreciation of the NT Dollar On a daily average basis, the trade-weighted nominal effective exchange rate index of the NT dollar slightly increased

More information

Thinking tactically: What really happens next?

Thinking tactically: What really happens next? Thinking tactically: What really happens next? Guy Monson March 2015 Since 2008, Central bank asset purchases have successfully protected markets from an array of global risks... A SHARP INCREASE IN CENTRAL

More information

OBSERVATION. TD Economics BRAZIL: ENORMOUS ECONOMIC POTENTIAL NEEDS INVESTMENT TO BEAR FRUIT

OBSERVATION. TD Economics BRAZIL: ENORMOUS ECONOMIC POTENTIAL NEEDS INVESTMENT TO BEAR FRUIT OBSERVATION TD Economics June 17, 213 BRAZIL: ENORMOUS ECONOMIC POTENTIAL NEEDS INVESTMENT TO BEAR FRUIT Highlights Standard and Poor s recently lowered its outlook for Brazil from stable to negative,

More information

Year Two. World Report

Year Two. World Report Year Two The global economy is now a little more than one year into the economic and stock market recoveries that have occurred since the Lehman shock of September 2008. After that credit crisis triggered

More information

Insurance market outlook

Insurance market outlook Munich Re Economic Research 2 May 2013 Global economic recovery provides stimulus to the insurance industry long-term perspective positive as well Once a year, MR Economic Research produces long-term forecasts

More information

THE UPDATE OF THE EURO EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE INDICES

THE UPDATE OF THE EURO EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE INDICES September 2004 THE UPDATE OF THE EURO EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE INDICES Executive summary In September 2004, the European Central Bank (ECB) has updated the overall trade weights underlying the ECB nominal

More information

BI FOCUS DAY ASIA LIFE INSURANCE

BI FOCUS DAY ASIA LIFE INSURANCE BI FOCUS DAY ASIA LIFE INSURANCE STEVEN LAM BLOOMBERG INDUSTRIES ANALYST SLAM122@BLOOMBERG.NET BI , BI LIFEA APR // 15 // 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 TOPIC: Life Insurers in Developed Japan and Developing

More information

Emerging Market Economies A Structural Reduction of Risk

Emerging Market Economies A Structural Reduction of Risk Emerging Market Economies A Structural Reduction of Risk Alan Dorsey, CFA Managing Director, Head of Investment Strategy & Risk Juliana Hadas, CFA Senior Vice President Investment Strategy & Risk Parth

More information

MLC Investment Management. Constructing Fixed Income Portfolios in a Low Interest Rate Environment. August 2010

MLC Investment Management. Constructing Fixed Income Portfolios in a Low Interest Rate Environment. August 2010 Constructing Fixed Income Portfolios in a Low Interest Rate Environment August 2010 Stuart Piper Portfolio Manager MLC Investment Management For Adviser Use Only 1 Important Information: This Information

More information

Current account deficit -10. Private sector Other public* Official reserve assets

Current account deficit -10. Private sector Other public* Official reserve assets Australian Capital Flows and the financial Crisis Introduction For many years, Australia s high level of investment relative to savings has been supported by net foreign capital inflow. This net capital

More information

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund.

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund. 2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund Alessio de Longis 1 The Role of Currency in Institutional Portfolios, edited by Momtchil

More information

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%

More information

Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon?

Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? September 015 MONTHLY MARKET INSIGHT Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? The fear of rising interest rates, which has clouded investors psyches for years, has

More information

Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade

Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade In addition to the influence of shifting patterns of growth in foreign populations and per capita income, cyclical macroeconomic factors associated with

More information

We wish you a prosperous 2016, and may a high Sharpe ratio be with you!

We wish you a prosperous 2016, and may a high Sharpe ratio be with you! The Year Ahead 2016 Monitor these key factors to guide investment decision making in 2016 2016: The highs and lows of the global investment landscape The lows Global growth Economic growth is expected

More information

Measuring performance Update to Insurance Key Performance Indicators

Measuring performance Update to Insurance Key Performance Indicators Measuring performance Update to Insurance Key Performance Indicators John Hele Member of Executive Board and CFO of ING Group Madrid 19 September 2008 www.ing.com Agenda Performance Indicators: Background

More information

India s Services Exports

India s Services Exports Markus Hyvonen and Hao Wang* Exports of services are an important source of demand for the Indian economy and account for a larger share of output than in most major economies. The importance of India

More information

Efic. Capital outflows from emerging markets revisited. 27 February 2014. Roger Donnelly Chief Economist

Efic. Capital outflows from emerging markets revisited. 27 February 2014. Roger Donnelly Chief Economist Efic Capital outflows from emerging markets revisited 27 February 2014 Roger Donnelly Chief Economist Capital outflows from emerging markets revisited Conclusion We maintain the conclusion we reached last

More information

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

More information

This is a licensed product of Ken Research and should not be copied

This is a licensed product of Ken Research and should not be copied 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Asia-Pacific Insurance Industry 1.1. Industry Introduction 1.2. Asia-Pacific Insurance Market Size by Direct Written Premium, 2005-2012P 1.3. Asia-Pacific Insurance Market Segmentation

More information