Research Under Adverse Conditions

Transcription

1 Research Under Adverse Conditions D3 Systems Researh in: Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan Presented at the DC AAPOR Chapter Seminar Washington DC, October 9, 2007 Matthew Warshaw, D3 Systems, USA

2 Why Do Polling In Adverse Conditions? Why poll in difficult circumstances? Why take the risks? To provide independent, unbiased access to public attitudes and experiences in strife areas - an essential element of understanding these situations in both human and geopolitical terms.

3 D3 Systems, Inc.: Background International Market, Media and Opinion Research Active Globally in 90+ Countries American and International Clients D3 Systems, Inc.

4 Obstacles to Research in Adverse Conditions Insurgency & Terrorism Criminal Gangs & Narcotics Traffickers Devastated Infrastructure Host Government Relations Cultural Values and Practices Labor Force Characteristics & Values Lack of Census Data D3 Systems, Inc.

5 Contributions to Public Knowledge Afghanistan ACSOR / D3 / ABC / TAF ACSOR/D3/ABC national surveys 2005 & 2006 ACSOR/The Asia Foundation surveys 2006 & 2007 Iraq D3 / KA Research / ABC D3/KA/ABC surveys March 2007 & August 2007 Iran, Pakistan, Syria -D3 / Terror Free Tomorrow D3/TFT surveys in June, July, and August 2007

6 Afghanistan: ACSOR / ABC 2006 ABC World News December 7, 2006

7 Web Site Photo

8 Conducting Research in Afghanistan MAP

9 1- Client Briefing [Objectives] 2- Questionnaire Design & Sampling 3- Translation/Testing Training 4- Field-Work Schematic Overview Life-cycle of a Project 5- Coding/Data Processing Validation/Outputs

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12 ACSOR and A National Sample in Afghanistan Distribution of sampling points by region and urban/rural strata ACSOR estimation: 22.5% urban / 77.5% rural Target sample is a 50/50 male - female split Sampling points distributed according to population proportions of 7 regions of Afghanistan then further assigned over the 34 provinces of Afghanistan Web Site Photo

13 A National Sample in Afghanistan Selection of Households and Respondents Households selected using random walk methodology Respondents are selected using a Kish Grid 3 call-back policy, no substitution within household Minimum 15% back-check, check, usually up to 25% Web Site Photo

14 Building Social Research Capacity in Afghanistan: Data Entry in Kabul Web Site Photo

15 Research in Afghanistan Web Site Photo

16 Afghanistan: Do you think your children will live better or worse than you are living today? Better Worse Same Jan-06 (2,100) Jul-06 (2,096) Jan-07 (2,054) Jul-07 (2,098)

17 MAP IRAQ

18 Research Team in Iraq Iraq Team Director Quantitative Team Director 5 regional trainers 19 field supervisors Pool of over 200 interviewers Qualitative Team Director 12+ moderators 6+ translators D3 Systems, Inc.

19 Iraq-Specific Challenges Extremely Violent Insurgency Breakdown of Law & Order Infiltration of the Military & Security Services Sunni / Shia / Kurd divisions D3 Systems, Inc.

20 ABC News/BBC/NHK poll of Iraq Field work by D3 Systems/KA Research Ltd. Project Focus/Questionnaire Development Rigorous, representative, random-sample national survey of adult population of Iraq Focus on Iraqis' experience of security and living conditions; views of national conditions and prospects, U.S. presence Draw on pre-surge trend from March 2007 (identical methodology) as well as 2004 and 2005 ABC-sponsored polls in Iraq Appx. ½ hour questionnaire, back-translated from Arabic and Kurdish by ABC consultants

21 ABC News/BBC/NHK poll of Iraq Field work by D3 Systems/KA Research Ltd. Survey Methodology Random sample all 18 Iraqi provinces, 101 of 102 districts (Sinjar( closed), 11,000+ p-codesp 457 sampling points selected by map/grid, PPS to district level; 16 substituted for security reasons 147 trained interviewers and field supervisors; matched to Sunni/Shiite locale where possible Random route/random interval; respondent selection by next birthday method

22 Methodology, cont. 2,212 interviews Aug 17-24, 2007; 69% directly supervised or back-checked checked by supervisors Weighted by province to sex/age/urban-rural rural status (2005 Ministry of Planning); 0.3 to Contact rate 93%; cooperation 65%; RR 60% Sampling error +/-2.5 inc/ DEFF of 1.51 Full methodology statement available at:

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28 ABC World News Sept. 10, 2007

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30 100% 90% 80% Security in Iraq: Six-Month Change ABC News/BBC/NHK poll Better Worse Same 70% 60% 61% 50% 45% 40% 30% 24% 31% 28% 20% 10% 11% 0% In your area In Iraq overall

31 100% 90% Ratings of U.S. ABC News/BBC/NHK poll 80% February 2004 November 2005 March 2007 August % 63% 60% 50% 50% 52% 47% 51% 57% 40% 39% 35% 30% 26% 20% 17% 10% 0% NA NA Invasion was wrong Coalition forces should leave now Attacks on U.S. forces "acceptable"

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33 100% 90% Disapproval of Iraqi Government ABC News/BBC/NHK poll 80% November 2005 March 2007 August % 65% 66% 60% 50% 53% 57% 40% 30% 32% 20% 10% 0% National government NA Prime Minister Nouri al-maliki

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37 Using CATI to Leap Over Barriers CATI Equipped Telephone Research Growing Experience Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia Current Expansion to Other Countries in the Region Where Telephone Research is Feasible D3 Systems, Inc.

38 Advantages of the Telephone Method Relatively Immune to Local Government Respondents are More Confident and Responsive Shortens Field Times and Data Delivery Provides a Full Random Sample of Telephone- Owning Households (No Snowball) Real-time Quality Control Ability to Use CATI Eliminates Political Risk to the Field Team D3 Systems, Inc.

39 Disadvantages of the Telephone Method Extent of Telephone Ownership Bias in Telephone Ownership Social Preferences for Mobiles vs. Land Lines Shorter Interview Times No Use of Show Cards No Inspection of the Dwelling D3 Systems, Inc.

40 Telephone Research in Middle East High Telephone Penetration CATI Research from International Call Center Native Arabic and Farsi Speakers Average Refusal rates 35% to 45% Appropriate Gender Interviewing D3 Systems, Inc.

41 TFT is taking advantage of CATI research in the Middle East to poll into countries where face-to-face polling on political subjects is not permitted TFT has conducted CATI surveys into Iran and Syria

42 D3 / TFT Studies CATI Studies Iran June 5-18, , n=1000 Syria July 11-14, 14, 2007, n=1004 Face-to to-face Pakistan August 18-29, 2007 n=1044 D3 Systems, Inc.

43 Priorities Iranians Say Are 88% Important 47% 33% 29% Improving the economy Western Trade & Relations Support for Hamas & Hezbollah Nuclear Weapons D3 Systems, Inc.

44 Differences Between Syrians and Iranians Iranians Syrians 80% 68% 40% 27% Favor Better Relations With United States Economy Headed in Right Direction D3 Systems, Inc.

45 Priorities Pakistanis Say Are Important 53% 45% 50% 28% 18% Free Elections, Press, Judiciary Improving the economy Resolving Kashmir Better Relations Trade With West Defeating Al Qaeda D3 Systems, Inc.

46 For the full findings on the Terror Free Tomorrow Surveys of Iran, Syria, and Pakistan, Please Visit:

47 THANK YOU D3 Systems Inc. Matthew Warshaw,, D3 Systems, USA