Improving Growth, Conflicting Forces

Transcription

1 Fixed Income Team nd Quarter 015 Global Fixed Income Outlook Improving Growth, Conflicting Forces Executive Summary We see global growth improving with a revival under way in Europe. However, markets are getting more removed from fundamentals as divergent central bank policies increasingly drive flows. Uncertainty surrounds the timing and impact of a Federal Reserve rate hike against a global backdrop of low inflation and competitive policy easing. Risks have also risen as Europe again faces the threat of a Greek exit and indicators suggest China is missing its 7% growth target. The US labor market is nearing full recovery and we see growth trending higher as the effects of a harsh winter subside and consumers start spending their windfall from low oil prices. That said, dollar strength poses some downside for earnings and exports. The Eurozone is the most improved economy, with a boost from the European Central Bank s (ECB) unexpectedly aggressive quantitative easing (QE). However, the longer-term momentum is questionable and we do not see inflation rising much this year. We think a Fed rate hike is likely in September. A June move now looks unlikely given weak inflation, dollar strength and intensifying global policy easing. We see QE in the Eurozone and Japan driving more yields in high-quality markets below zero. QE-driven rates rallies limit our options for expressing our improved Eurozone outlook. In rates we favor relative value positions in long-dated sectors. Based on the Fundamental Equities team s more positive views on Europe this quarter, equities may offer more opportunities than credit does for now, given stretched valuations. Economic divergence may have peaked... GSAM current activity indicator 5 US Eurozone Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Source: GSAM, Bloomberg. As of March but rate divergence growing Short-term government bond yield 0.8 US Eurozone Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

2 Feature: Extreme Easing Our positioning in risk assets is constructive. We are selectively overweight in corporate credit, emerging markets and securitized markets, and underweight agency mortgages. We are neutral US rates despite our positive growth outlook, as we think competitive easing may continue to dampen swings in rates in the near term. We think volatility is likely to be more pronounced in currencies. We have scaled back our long dollar position given strong rallies to date and the potential for improved global growth to redirect capital from the US. We are cautious on the euro and think the Japanese yen may have more downside. As the global recovery picks up, the focus of our divergence theme is moving on from growth to policy. After years of apprehension about US rate hikes, markets now face the additional challenge of competitive easing outside the US as more central banks cut rates aggressively to protect exports and counter falling inflation. This contrast in policy is transforming the investment landscape, with three evolving issues to watch: Implications of US dollar strength and risks to consensus on euro weakness Yield starvation in QE-driven markets External financing risks in emerging markets US versus the world The US version of competitive easing may be a delayed lift-off. In March the Fed dropped its reference to remaining patient with respect to tightening keeping the flexibility to move in June but that does not mean policymakers are impatient. Key deterrents are weak inflation and dollar strength, as higher yields and stronger growth relative to other major developed economies attract more capital to the US. The dollar s 0% gain over the past year is a key side-effect of the `international developments cited in recent Fed statements. We think the related tightening of US financial conditions will likely persuade the Fed to delay a hike until September, with risks to a later move. We GSAM think current this rally activity leaves indicator little further upside for the dollar Short-term in the government near term, bond and improved yield global growth 5 may US redirect Eurozone some capital from the US. We also 0.8think the US euro may Eurozone not fall as sharply as some expect, as stronger growth, increased flows to European 0.7 equities and a record-breaking current 4 account surplus could somewhat offset QE-related weakness. We think the yen may have 0.6 more downside versus the dollar, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is highly motivated to protect Japan s 0.5 exports 3 and get inflation back on track. 0.4 As for the market impact, we think volatility may increase 0.3 as the Fed hones its message on timing and global policy divergence raises the risk of sharper market swings. However, our base case 0. scenario of a hike later this year predicated on strong growth and hints of inflationary pressure would be generally benign for risk assets, in our view, and would allow a relatively orderly adjustment in government yields. We think a disorderly outcome Taper 0 Tantrum is somewhat more likely if the 0Fed is perceived to be ahead of the curve, and moving -0.1 before the economy is ready. Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Negative rates and stretched valuations From a fixed income perspective, value is hard to find in these policy-driven markets. QE-driven rallies in the Eurozone limit our options to trade the recovery in the near term. The gravitational pull of negative policy rates is already in effect and has further to go, in our view. In the first week of Eurozone yields sink below Japan 5-year yield 3.0 US Germany Japan In Europe, ECB buying limits the upside for government yields. We are focused on relative value positions to capitalize on varied longer-term outlooks across developed markets. For instance, we see more room for long-dated yields to rally in Japan than in Germany '11 '1 '13 '14 '15 Source: Bloomberg. As of March 31, US Financial Conditions US Financial Conditions including oil Goldman Sachs Asset Management 10

3 QE, ECB purchases helped to drive yields on more than a quarter of the Eurozone s sovereign debt into negative territory, and we expect this proportion to rise. Given the ECB s willingness to buy negative yielding bonds down to the -0.% deposit rate, buyers trading the QE-driven rallies will probably drive yields towards that floor further and further out the curve in high-quality sovereign markets. Collateral damage in EM? To some extent, the pressures of competitive devaluation and dollar strength converge in EM. The People s Bank of China (PBoC) is attempting to ease financial conditions and reduce downside risks to the 7% growth target using a variety of policy tools, including outright rate cuts. However, authorities are wary of devaluing the currency for fear of sparking a wave of capital outflows. Yuan weakness could cause distress for companies that have borrowed in dollars by boosting the value of their debt, and local governments are vulnerable due to their levered exposure to the slowdown in the property sector. We are cautious in the EM corporate sector, given the high proportion of Russian and Brazilian issuance, which is exposed to the adverse effects of sanctions, falling oil prices and slowing Chinese demand. We favor higher-quality currency-hedged issuers, including Chilean utilities. That said, assuming China can engineer a soft landing, we think policymakers commitment to longer-term reforms will ultimately lead to a stronger economy. In our investment strategy we favor countries that have prioritized structural reforms over economic expansion on the basis that they will probably be more able to adjust and maintain competitiveness, or to live within their means in a slower growth environment. We have more concerns about countries that did not use the boom to diversify their economies, particularly those with business models built on Chinese demand, including Australia and some of the EM commodities complex. We are cautious in markets that we consider most exposed to external financing risk. We think many sovereigns are less vulnerable than before, having shifted more borrowing to domestic markets and local currency. Risks are greater in EM corporate sectors, where dollar-denominated debt issuance has surged in recent years. While most companies that have borrowed in dollars also have dollar revenues or currency hedges in place, some companies must service that dollar debt with unhedged revenue in local currencies. 3 Goldman Sachs Asset Management

4 US STRATEGY We think US rates are too low given the strength of the economy and the likelihood of a Fed hike later this year. However, our position is neutral as we think global policy easing may continue to curb rate increases in the coming months. On a relative value basis we hold a long position further out the curve, as we think long-dated US rates offer value versus the Eurozone and UK markets. We are bullish on the dollar over the long term as global policy easing drives flows to the US. However, we have scaled back our long dollar position in the near term given the strength of the rally so far. We are constructive on corporate credit in the US, where we believe valuations are less stretched than in Europe. We see opportunities in high yield, particularly among energy companies that can weather a longer period of low oil prices. Security selection is key as the market advances into its late cycle, and we expect some pickup in defaults in the next couple of years. US: Hiking Alone GSAM current activity indicator Short-term government bond yield 5 US Eurozone 0.8 US Eurozone We expect the US to continue on its solid growth trajectory, picking up to 3.% in 015. We think 0.7 economic 4 momentum remains strong and the labor market is approaching full employment. Risks to 0.6 growth have increased with tightening financial conditions due to the dollar s appreciation, but we believe the impact should be largely offset by lower oil 0.5 prices. With these factors in mind we expect 3 the Fed to raise interest rates in 015, though weak inflation 0.4 and dollar strength are likely to delay lift-off to later in the year Recent weaker data have not shaken our positive outlook for the US. We think the dips in housing, retail 1 sales and manufacturing activity are in large part a 0.1 reprise of weather-related effects from the same time last year. The expected boost to consumption 0 from lower oil prices has been slower to emerge 0 than anticipated, but we think household spending -0.1 is likely to pick up in the coming months. Though Jan-14some indicators Jul-14 suggest manufacturing Jan-15 activity Jan-14 has slowed, all measures Jul-14 remain consistent Jan-15 with expansion. The dollar s rally which recently saw the DXY index hit a 1-year high is likely to weigh on the economy this year. The loss of trade competitiveness is a lesser concern given the relatively small contribution of exports to GDP. The bigger impact is likely to be on the profits of US companies with overseas operations, and indeed the last three months marked the first quarter of negative earnings growth since the crisis. This hit to revenues could drag on capital expenditure, which is already down as a result of energy sector cutbacks in response to lower oil prices. 3.0 US Germany Japan Nevertheless,.5 we think the benefits of lower oil prices should offset these drawbacks. The declines so far represent a roughly $100bn-$150bn tax break for households a substantial boost in disposable.0 income. The expected increase in spending is a valuable contribution to growth, since consumption 1.5 accounts for 70% of US GDP. Jobs growth should provide additional support for consumer sentiment, as the unemployment rate hit a seven-year low of 5.5% in February. 1.0 This growth backdrop, combined with the labor market recovery, suggests that the US economy can 0.5 support higher rates. However, the strong dollar and the absence of inflationary pressure raise the 0.0 odds of a delay to September. Weak inflation may be due in part to the surprisingly strong pass through from lower oil prices, but it is also possible that the economy still has too much slack to drive -0.5prices higher. This view is supported by the lack of wage growth so far, though unemployment '11 '1 '13 '14 '15 has fallen to levels normally consistent with a pickup in wages and we think the inflection point is likely to arrive in the next six months. Lower oil prices are largely offsetting dollar strength Index US Financial Conditions US Financial Conditions including oil Tighter Financial Conditions '08 '09 '10 '11 '1 '13 '14 '15 Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs. As of March 31, Goldman Sachs Asset Management presentation. 110 There France can be no assurance Italythat the forecasts Irelandwill be achieved. Spain Greece 100

5 0 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Global Outlook: Improving Growth, Conflicting Forces Eurozone: Most Improved EUROZONE STRATEGY Ordinarily, improving growth would advocate an outright short rates position, but QEdriven rallies leave us cautious. We are underweight further out the curve in relative-value strategies. We think long-end rates look expensive versus other markets and vulnerable to a near-term correction, due in part to heavy positioning for ECB buying. We think longend supply may offset QE as governments borrow more at ultra-low rates, and any uptick in inflation expectations may show up first in this sector. We see potential for further rallies in peripheral markets, but we are trading tactically around the pressures of increased issuance and the material risk of contagion from Greece. We see QE pressuring the euro lower, but we think improving growth, stronger equity inflows to Europe and the size of the current account surplus limit the potential for sharper declines. The Eurozone growth outlook is better than it has been for several years. QE is partly responsible, as 3.0 US Germany Japan the related confidence boost and the prospect of a further decline in the euro adds to the tailwinds of lower.5 oil prices and banking sector repair. We have revised our 015 growth forecast up to 1.6%. However, unlike most forecasters, we do not expect this momentum to last, and we think inflation could.0remain well below target for years to come. In the meantime, we see increased risks from the knock-on 1.5 effects of aggressive policy easing in Europe and the renewed threat of a rift with Greece. Economic 1.0 indicators put Europe at a possible turning point for sustainable recovery. Consumer demand is strengthening with a rare upswing in German retail sales. Eurozone PMIs show a broadbased 0.5 pickup across the services and manufacturing sectors including construction activity and 0.0 exports have risen modestly. And in a sign that ECB stimulus and financial sector repair may be bearing fruit, bank lending is no longer trending down, and lending for home purchases is tentatively improving -0.5 '11 in core Europe. '1 '13 '14 '15 However this momentum may rely too heavily on the shorter-term drivers of currency depreciation and oil price declines. The income boost to euro area consumers from low oil prices is very substantial, at roughly 0.7% of GDP. Unless crude takes a further long leg down not our base case the benefit to consumption is likely to wane over the year. Moreover, the competitive gains 103 US Financial Conditions US Financial Conditions including oil from euro depreciation may also be overstated in an environment of rampant policy easing, where other major central banks are also striving to weaken their currencies. On balance, we see Eurozone growth subsiding back around 1.% in One of the signs we look for in a sustained rebound is increased investment. Capital expenditure has lagged since the crisis, and we think continued stagnation is a risk to the recovery, raising concerns Tighter 101 that public debt overhangs and an aging population may have reined back potential growth and so reduced the need to invest. From a more positive standpoint, Financial we think the Conditions conditions for investment are much better now that the banking sector has delevered and balance sheets are in better shape. 100 One problem we don t see going away anytime soon is weak inflation. QE s primary objective is to get inflation back towards the ECB target of just under %, but we don t think even 1% is likely 99 before the program s review in September 016. That is despite its size which exceeded expectations '08 at 60bn '09 of monthly '10 purchases and '11 dramatic '1 market impact '13 (see Extreme '14 Easing, '15 p.). We see upside risks to our view, as this year s unusually high 3.7% raise for German workers Index Some progress, but more reform needed Unit labor costs. 010= France Italy Ireland Spain Greece '10 '11 '1 '13 '14 Source: OECD, as of Q presentation. 4 There CPIcan be no Excluding assurance that Tax the Hike forecasts will BoJ be achieved. Target 3 5 Goldman Sachs Asset Management

6 -0.5 '11 '1 '13 '14 '15 should 103help create US Financial some wage Conditions growth in Europe s US Financial largest Conditions economy. including However, oil elsewhere wages are likely to remain subdued and we still see a powerful trend of job creation shifting from high income skilled labor to the low income services sector. 10 Meanwhile, political developments pose greater than usual risks to the Eurozone recovery. Antiausterity campaigns have gained more traction in recent years of economic hardship, and while most countries have managed to make good progress on necessary structural Tighter reforms Spain 101 and most recently Italy they do so under mounting opposition. Greece s new Financial Syriza government is likely to keep contesting the reform agenda in negotiations with the Institutions Conditions (the rebranded troika) and creditors. While a Greek exit is not our base case, the tight schedule of repayments and antagonism 100 between the parties has made a disorderly outcome less unlikely. Index JAPAN STRATEGY We think more BoJ easing is possible in the coming months, and the exceptional pressure of Japan s QE program presents further downside for Japanese yields. Moreover, given the stretched valuations across global rates markets, Japan looks increasingly attractive on a relative value basis. We are overweight Japanese rates relative to the UK, US and Eurozone. On the currency, the prospect of further policy easing leaves us biased to short the yen, which may outpace the euro s depreciation in the coming months. Japan: 99 Arrows are Hitting, but Inflation Off-Target '08 '09 '10 '11 '1 '13 '14 '15 Japan is on a modestly positive growth trajectory this year, with support from both external and domestic demand. Short-term factors such as stimulus and low oil prices have helped, but we also see more-sustainable drivers. These include some progress on corporate sector reforms, the long-awaited third arrow of Prime Minister Abe s economic program. Indeed Japan may be among 110 the first France major developed Italy economies Ireland to experience Spain wage-driven Greece inflation, though it will not be enough to get anywhere near the Bank of Japan s % target this year. More policy easing may be 105 necessary, and we think the most likely trigger would be a bounce in the yen. Our forecast this year is for growth to accelerate further, to 1.8%. A comprehensive fiscal aid package 100 helped the economy recover in the fourth quarter from a recession sparked by the April 014 tax hike. Additional support has come from declining oil prices and currency depreciation, as 95 the yen has weakened 8.5% against the dollar since the BoJ s surprise QE expansion at the end of October last year. Cheaper energy has helped boost consumer confidence and spending in recent 90 months and the yen move contributed to a solid increase in exports. We expect some slowdown in momentum as the short-term drivers subside, but recent forward-looking surveys suggest that sentiment is holding up and investment particularly in the manufacturing sector is on 85 the rise. Our expectation is that growth will slow moderately in 016, to around 1.4%. Our 80forecast takes into account the likelihood of further BoJ action. We believe policymakers are very '10 motivated to maintain '11 downward pressure '1 on the yen, particularly '13 in a global '14 environment of Oil price declines knock Japanese inflation off course Year-over-year (percent) 4 3 CPI Excluding Tax Hike BoJ Target '10 '11 '1 '13 '14 '15 Source: Bloomberg, as of Feb. 8, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

7 widespread central bank easing. Likely measures include increasing Japanese government bond purchases and extending the maturities, and increasing purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF) and real estate investment trusts (REIT). A further possible action would be to cut the rate of interest on excess reserves. We do not see these measures driving inflation much higher in the near term however, as our forecast for this year is just 0.9%, rising to 1.5% in 016. Lower energy costs helped to derail the rising trend in inflation late last year and the rate is widely expected to turn negative in the coming months. That said, upward pressure is building from wages, finally, as this year s spring negotiations yielded the biggest increases in base salaries in more than a decade from large employers such as Toyota, Nissan and Hitachi. The moves come amid heavy pressure from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the labor market is so tight that the jobless rate has fallen below levels normally considered to signal full employment. In the first quarter the ratio of jobs to applicants hovered at a -year low, with 114 positions per 100 job seekers. UK: Political Risk UK STRATEGY Strong demand from pension funds has kept long-dated rates very low in spite of a stronger macro backdrop. As a result, long-dated rates look expensive by historical standards, and we are underweight UK long-end rates versus the US and Japan. The British pound has strengthened on policy easing in the Eurozone, and we anticipate further appreciation, despite the reduced likelihood of a BoE rate hike this year. However, in the near term we are tactically short as we expect increased currency volatility surrounding the elections. The UK economy is holding up well and our forecast for growth this year is above consensus at 3%. Having weathered the slowdown in the Eurozone, the UK looks set to benefit from its upturn, though the British pound s strength may dampen the positive effect on exports. Domestic consumption is also looking robust, with consumer confidence having returned to pre-crisis highs and retail sales on the rise. The biggest blot on the UK s outlook is political uncertainty as the race for the May elections looks exceptionally close, and the direction of policy is unclear. Our forecast for UK growth is supported by recent PMIs, which point to strong expansion and new orders particularly in the dominant services sector. The surveys also indicate a robust pace of hiring, consistent with the trend of declining unemployment to a six year low of 5.7%. Continuing a positive trend from the end of last year, pay this year is also rising faster than inflation, by the largest margin in seven years. However, this scenario says more about the sharp slowdown in inflation than it does about wage growth, which remains subdued. Inflation has dropped very quickly in the UK, sliding from 1% in November to 0.3% in the first quarter. The rate looks headed for negative territory in the coming months, weighed down by energy prices. Though a rebound is likely as the oil price effects subside, we see downside risks to our 0.5% forecast due to weaker import prices and the strong pound. The inflation decline has greatly reduced the odds of a hike from the Bank of England this year, though policymakers have warned against complacency that rates will stay low well into 016. Uncertainty over government policy may also weigh in favor of keeping rates on hold. The May 7 election is shaping up as a four-way battle between the Conservatives, Labour, Scottish National Party and the right-wing party UKIP. The policy mix in question offers no clear market-friendly option, with the Conservatives pledging a referendum on membership in the European Union, and doubts about Labour s commitment to fiscal reform. Moreover, the strong possibility of a coalition or an unstable minority government raises the potential for policy shifts. 7 Goldman Sachs Asset Management

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