Indonesian Airspace Sectorisation, Concept Conops of and Capacity Studies. Operations and Capacity Studies

Transcription

1 Indonesian Airspace Sectorisation, Concept Conops of and Capacity Studies Operations and Capacity Studies Final Report Report

2 Indonesian Airspace Sectorisation, Concept of Operations and Capacity Studies Final Report CONSULTANT REPORT October 2012

3 INDONESIA INFRASTRUCTURE INITIATIVE This document has been published by the Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII), an Australian Government funded project designed to promote economic growth in Indonesia by enhancing the relevance, quality and quantum of infrastructure investment. The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Australia Indonesia Partnership or the Australian Government. Please direct any comments or questions to the IndII Director, tel. +62 (21) , fax +62 (21) Website: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been prepared by John McCarthy (Project Manager), Peter Atkins (International Consultant) and Novaro Martodihardjo for Strategic Airspace Pty Ltd, engaged under the Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII), funded by AusAID, as part of the Activities #289 and #290. The support provided by the staff at IndII, Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Angkasa Pura I, Angkasa Pura II and Cathy Pak-Poy (Strategic Airspace) in the preparation of this report, is gratefully acknowledged. Any errors of fact or interpretation are solely those of the authors. Peter Atkins and John McCarthy Jakarta, October 2012 IndII 2012 All original intellectual property contained within this document is the property of the Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII). It can be used freely without attribution by consultants and IndII partners in preparing IndII documents, reports designs and plans; it can also be used freely by other agencies or organisations, provided attribution is given. Every attempt has been made to ensure that referenced documents within this publication have been correctly attributed. However, IndII would value being advised of any corrections required, or advice concerning source documents and/ or updated data.

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5 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS... V EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... VII CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION RELATIONSHIPS OF PROPOSED PROJECTS SCOPING STUDY OBJECTIVES... 3 CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT GEOGRAPHY POLITICAL AND ORGANISATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT Characteristics Common To Both FIRs Air Traffic Management - Jakarta FIR Air Traffic Management Ujung Pandang FIR COMMUNICATION, NAVIGATION AND SURVEILLANCE (CNS) AVIATION ACTIVITY CHAPTER 3: STAKEHOLDERS INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW OF STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT KEY INDONESIAN STAKEHOLDER GROUPS EXTERNAL ATM AND FOREIGN AGENCIES STAKEHOLDER ASSESSMENT CHAPTER 4: KEY FINDINGS INTRODUCTION ASSESSMENT OF INDONESIAN ATM CONTEXT ASSESSMENT OF INDONESIAN AGENCIES CAPABILITIES POTENTIAL FOREIGN AID CHARACTERISTICS AFFECTING THE PROJECTS RISK PROFILES Application of Risk Management for Change Risk Exposure SCOPES OF WORK (SOWS) CONOPS, CAPACITY ANALYSIS, RESECTORISATION CHAPTER 5: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION INTRODUCTION PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY Objectives Approach i

6 5.2.3 Inclusion of the Approach in the SOWs PROJECT ORDER, RESOURCES AND TIMEFRAME ESTIMATED RESOURCES AND COST CHAPTER 6: METRICS & KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND CAPACITY DETERMINATION USING ANALYSIS METHODS CALCULATING A METRIC USING DEDUCTIVE METHODS APPLICATION OF THE BRAZILIAN MODEL TO AN INDONESIAN SECTOR ADDITIONAL METRICS TAXONOMY FOR PERFORMANCE MEASURES CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION NEED FOR THE PROJECTS POTENTIAL DIFFICULTIES POTENTIAL SUCCESS FACTORS FOR THE PROJECTS ANNEXES ANNEXE 1: STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES & THREATS ANNEXE 2: METHODOLOGY ANNEXE 3: STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT PLAN ANNEXE 4: AIRSPACE QUESTIONNAIRE ANNEXE 5: MINUTES OF WORKSHOPS, AND FORMAL MEETINGS AND PRESENTATIONS REFERENCES ii

7 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Summary of Required Resources and Estimates of for the Proposed Projects.. x Table 2: Strategic Airspace Approach to the Task... 3 Table 3: Airports that AP II Operates Table 4: AP I Makassar Airports Table 5: Jakarta FIR Sector Traffic for September Table 6: Key Indonesian Stakeholders Table 7: Australian Aid & Support Organisations working within the Indonesian ATM Framework Table 8: External Agencies (other than Australia) Table 9: Indonesian ATM Context Table 10: Indonesian Aviation Capabilities Table 11: Potential Foreign Aid Characteristics & Effect on Projects Table 12: Preliminary Qualitative Risk Assessment Table 13: Project Prioritisation Table 14: Performance Areas & Metrics Table 15: Stakeholder Management and Communication Table 16: Key Comments by Stakeholders LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Proposed Project Indicative Schedule... xi Figure 2: Relationship of Proposed Projects with ATM Masterplan... 1 Figure 3: Indonesian FIR Boundaries... 6 Figure 4: Indonesian Aviation Agency Overview Current Situation... 7 Figure 5: Indonesian Aviation Agency Overview Future (Post-Transition)... 8 Figure 6: Traffic Density Comparison... 9 Figure 7: Current Jakarta FIR ATC Sectorisation Figure 8: Proposed Sectorisation Jakarta FIR Figure 9: Air Route Structure Jakarta FIR iii

8 Figure 10: Ujung Pandang Current Sectorisation Figure 11: Proposed Sectorisation for Ujung Pandang FIR Figure 12: ADSB Coverage for Indonesia Figure 13: VHF Coverage for Upper Airspace Figure 14: Growth in Public Transport Movements Figure 15: Stakeholder Assessment Grid Figure 16: Risk Assessment Figure 17: Risk Profile Figure 18: Profile of Upper Semarang (US) Sector Figure 19: CANSO Productivity Figures Figure 20: Original Work Plan and Schedule for Project 289 (Project 290 was similar). 56 Figure 21: Project Schedule - Actual vs Baseline iv

9 ACRONYMS AIP ANSP AP I AP II ATC ATFM ATM ATS CGK CNS CNS/ATM CONOPS DGCA EJAATS FAA FIR FTS HMI ICAO JAATS JATC Aeronautical Information Publication Air Navigation Services Provider Angkasa Pura formerly Angkasa Pura 1 (Airport and ATM Authority Makassar) (NB: To avoid potential confusion, abbreviated as AP I in this report) Angkasa Pura 2 (Airport and ATM Authority Jakarta) Air Traffic Control Air Traffic Flow Management Air Traffic Management Air Traffic Services Jakarta Soekarno-Hatta International Airport IATA Code (refer also SHIA) Communication, Navigation and Surveillance Communications, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management Concept of Operations Directorate General Civil Aviation Emergency Jakarta Air Traffic Control System (refer also JAATS and MAATS) Federal Aviation Administration (USA) Flight Information Region Fast Time Simulation Human Machine Interface International Civil Aviation Organization Jakarta Air Traffic Control System (refer also EJAATS and MAATS) Jakarta Air Traffic Control v

10 MAATS PBN PANS-OPS PANS-ATM RNAV RNP RNP-AR APCH SARP SHIA SMS SRA SOP WGS-84 Makassar Air Traffic Control System (refer also EJAATS and JAATS) Performance Based Navigation Procedures for Air Navigation Services - Aircraft Operations, ICAO Doc 8168 Procedures for Air Navigation Services-Air Traffic Management, ICAO Doc 4444 Area Navigation Required Navigation Performance Required Navigation Performance Approach Authorization Required Standards and Recommended Practices Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, Jakarta (refer also CGK, IATA Airport Code) Safety Management System Safety Risk Assessment Standard Operating Procedures World Geodetic System,1984 vi

11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The volume of both domestic and international air traffic in the two Indonesian Flight Information Regions (FIRs see Figure 3: Indonesian FIR Boundaries) continues to grow at an increasing rate; some of the routes in Indonesian airspace are already amongst the busiest in the world. The Indonesian aviation agencies, and others, are concerned that the present Air Traffic Management (ATM) arrangements are less than adequate to safely and efficiently handle this growing volume of traffic. The strain under the excessive demand is evident: from observation of air traffic controller (ATC) workload; from delays experienced within some current ATC sectors and at major airports; and from the excessive and increasing number of incidents (due to breakdown of aircraft separation) reported by the airlines. Studies undertaken by Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII) and others, over the last few years, have identified the need to revise both the route structure and the sectorisation of the airspace. This is intended to help cope with growing demand (and changing traffic requirements) by providing increased airspace capacity; to modernise aspects of the airspace, which in itself should serve to improve capacity; and to more closely harmonise it with adjoining FIRs and regional airspace plans. However, there are two missing pre-requisites for a proper and satisfactory revision of the route structure and ATC sectors. These are: a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) that will provide a policy level definition of the standards and practices to be used in Indonesian airspace; and accurate and detailed information concerning the current route and airspace demand and capacity. The first of these pre-requisites defines the rules to be used in re-designing the routes and sectors; the second provides data on two of the most important (in the context of design) parameters of the routes and the airspace demand and capacity. As a precursor to any full project activity and to provide an effective scope of work, a scoping study was undertaken by Strategic Airspace under contract to IndII. The scopes of work for each of the three proposed projects were to be delivered by two interdependent projects (IndII Activities #289 and #290). This report is the result of both of these projects. The required deliverables included terms of reference and contextual information to support the Scope of Work for the development of: Project : IndII Activity #289 i. A Concept of Operation (CONOPS) for the future Air Traffic Management (ATM) system for Indonesian airspace; and ii. A Resectorisation Plan for Indonesian airspace, including a re-design of the underlying air route structure. As well as developing a complete new design for Indonesian airspace and route structure, together with a recommended plan for the implementation of that design, this project is intended to develop the vii

12 capability for airspace change, including all the processes necessary for the aviation agencies to implement those changes. Project: IndII Activity #290 iii. An Airspace Capacity Analysis project that is also intended to develop the capability for capacity analysis within the Indonesia aviation agencies. This project is intended to use Fast Time Simulation (FTS) and other metrics to measure the demand and capacity of current and proposed air routes and ATC sectors. The scoping study was therefore to include discussion of FTS and other demand and capacity metrics. Because both projects had overlapping subject domains and had common stakeholders, the two projects were initiated within close proximity of each other and had compatible project durations. As Strategic Airspace was the contractor for both projects, the two projects were conducted as one overall project (but with key subprojects to satisfy the contract requirements). There is considerable urgency for all of these projects: The formation of a new single air navigation service provider (ANSP), formally initiated towards the end of the scoping study, gives high importance and considerable urgency to the development of a Concept of Operations (CONOPS). This new entity will take on all the ATM functions, including ATC and airspace management, which are currently distributed across three organisations including the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). The CONOPS is needed during the formation period of the new ANSP as it will describe, at a policy level, the operation of the new organisation s core business; this can assist in defining the structure of the new business. As well, because the CONOPS is a pre-requisite for the Resectorisation project, some of the urgency for the CONOPS project derives from that project. The imperatives for air route and airspace sector re-design are safety and efficiency. It is considered that the congestion of aircraft in some ATC sectors is already exceeding safe levels on a regular basis. The present route structure is outdated; it doesn t support current traffic patterns or demands, and demand is increasing at over 8% per annum. All segments of the aviation market are growing rapidly: domestic is growing exceedingly fast; the rate of international will increase once the ASEAN Open Sky becomes effective in 2013; and over-flights from/to numerous countries are increasing because the Asian economies are booming. The upper airspace has a mix of over-flights, between numerous FIRs including Australia, as well as an increasing number of domestic and international arrivals. Thus, Australian travellers are directly affected by the diminishing safety as demand and traffic complexity increases. For these reason the Re-sectorisation project is urgently needed. The existing Indonesian aviation agencies are aware that airspace changes are needed and they have independently initiated some airspace sectorisation and route re-structuring projects to attempt to tackle these viii

13 issues. However, they lack the expertise, resources and / or tools to successfully complete these projects. The Indonesian aviation agencies are aware of the airspace and air route congestion problems. They have grappled with the means of measuring capacity versus demand (that is, the level of congestion) as part of their re-sectorisation efforts. However, they do not have the tools (for example, Fast Time Simulation software) or expertise to accurately measure capacity and to model alternatives. This is the objective of the Capacity Analysis project: to provide the tools and expertise to develop the capability for capacity analysis within the local agencies. One of the primary objectives of each of these projects is to develop capability so that the Indonesian agencies can undertake studies and projects of a similar nature in the future (they will need to do this because of changing technology and growing and changing demand patterns). Such ongoing improvement of airspace usage and ATM arrangements is a concern for ATM organisations worldwide. As part of the development of capability, areas such as airspace change management (including risk assessment and the preparation of safety cases) are included in the catalogue of skills that need to be developed and fostered. There are shortcomings in these areas at the moment and these processes are needed for the proposed IndII projects and for future Indonesian agency projects. The need to include the development of capability within these projects also stems from the fact that some of the tasks involved in these projects are iterative; so to completely study all details (of capacity) or implement all changes (of air route or airspace) may take longer than is a sensible timeframe for these projects.. It also makes the most sense in terms of delivering longer-term benefit and return on future aid funded investments. The Scopes of Work (SOW) that have resulted from this consultancy (delivered as separate documents) incorporate the capability development objectives within each project scope. There are many factors that may influence the conduct of these projects. Some of the more important are: Changing Roles of the Aviation Agencies: the new single ANSP is one of the major clients of these projects; Changing ATM technology: the current JAATS air traffic control system used for the western half of Indonesian airspace will be replaced by a temporary system while a new system is sourced; New navigation technology: the introduction of Performance-Based Navigation (PBN), which is in its infancy in Indonesia at the present time; this offers greater flexibility in route design and will give more harmony with regional plans, and it also provide compliance with global standardisation; and Introduction of Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) and Collaborative Decision Making (CDM): this is seen as a means of coping with congestion problems but would be best done after attacking the underlying problem of the route structure and ATC sectorisation. ix

14 The timeframes for the two pre-requisite projects (CONOPS and Capacity Analysis) are about the same between 4 to 6 months to complete each of them. As they are independent of each other they could run in parallel. The Concept of Operations project will also deliver early benefit during the formation of the new ANSP. The third project, Re-sectorisation, delivers the major benefits of safety and efficiency improvements and so it is desirable to commence this project as early as practicable. It is estimated that the Re-sectorisation project would require approximately 9 to 12 months. Hence all three projects, if run optimally, could be completed within an overall timeframe of months. A summary of the estimated timing and costs (including travel, accommodation and overheads) for the three projects is provided in the following table. The costs are based on IndII s current standard rates. Table 1: Summary of Required Resources and Estimates of for the Proposed Projects Order Project Estimated Effort & Timeframe Budgetary Estimates 1 Concept of Operations 2 Capacity Analysis Effort Consultants: 9 person mths Plus additional time for: Project Management by Consultant A local consultant Elapsed: 4-6 months Effort required is estimated to be 11 person months plus some time for a local consultant and project management. The elapsed time for the project is estimated to be no less than 6 months. Consultants:... AU $365,000 Consultants:... AU $445,000 Software Licence:AU $250,000 Training*:... AU $30,000 (by vendor, excluding travel costs) 3 Re-sectorisation Effort required is estimated to be 18 person months plus some time for a local consultant and project management. The elapsed time for the project is estimated to be no less than 9-12 months; Consultants:... AU $660,000 x

15 Figure 1: Proposed Project Indicative Schedule xi

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17 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION The IndII-sponsored Indonesian Air Traffic Management Master Plan was completed in Following on from this, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) selected several projects indentified in the Masterplan as having high importance and urgency. These projects were: the development of a policy level Concept of Operations; a review of ATC Sectorisation to improve safety and efficiency; and the analysis the airspace capacity including implementation of Fast Time Simulation tools and metrics. Figure 2: Relationship of Proposed Projects with ATM Masterplan Subsequently, IndII initiated two projects (IndII Activity #289 and Activity #290) to develop Scopes of Work for future projects intended to address these identified needs. These projects are referred to in this report as the Scoping Study and the projects they provide the scope for are referred to as the Proposed Projects. Strategic Airspace successfully tendered for both projects that make up the Scoping Study. Because both the study team and the subject domains for the two Scoping projects overlap, in some contexts within this report the two projects are considered and referred to as one single project. This report includes: various findings of the project team, as follows; o an assessment of the underlying needs for, and expected benefits of, the Proposed Projects; o an assessment of stakeholders perceptions of the need for the Proposed Projects; 1

18 o the attitudes of the primary stakeholders (those who will be involved in some substantial way with Proposed Projects) towards the Proposed Projects; o the potential risks associated with each of the Proposed Projects; o the rationale for the way the Scopes of Work have been framed; other background information that may be useful to the consultants undertaking the Proposed Projects; and a summary of how the Scoping Study was conducted. The report also includes a discussion on Metrics and Performance Indicators for airspace and ATM system performance that might be used to assess the outcomes of capacity analysis, re-sectorisation and revision of the route structure. This was called for in the briefs for each of the Scoping Studies. 1.1 RELATIONSHIPS OF PROPOSED PROJECTS Each of the Proposed Projects, and the relationship between them, is briefly summarised below: Revision of the Route Structure and ATC Sectorisation this project is necessary to ensure safety and improve efficiency as demand increases. This project will effectively initiate the modernization of Indonesian airspace and Air Traffic Management. This project includes the re-design of all airspace and the route structure for both FIRs and developing the procedures for the implementation of the results. The timeframe for the implementation will be longer than lifetime of the proposed IndII-sponsored project. This Proposed Project is to be supported by the other two Proposed Projects in the following ways: o The scientific determination of both current and future capacity and demand is a necessary decision support tool for the envisaged route re-structure and resectorisation. The capability to effectively use this decision support tool is to be developed by Capacity Analysis project; o Changes to both the route structure and sectorisation should take place within the framework of commonly accepted policies and standards that are harmonised with adjacent FIRs. The common policies and standards should be defined in a Concept of Operations. Both these supporting projects are outlined below. Development of a Concept of Operations for Air Traffic Management. There are many different ATM development plans favoured by different sections of each of the aviation agencies. These have been inconsistent in the past leading to the development of incompatible systems. Over the long term this compromises 2

19 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION safety and diminishes efficiency. The inconsistencies develop because decisions have been made without prior agreement between agencies on objectives, policies and standards between agencies. The existence of a Concept of Operations (referred to as CONOPS) would help to integrate plans by providing a common or shared vision for the future ATM system and a framework within which the consistency of decision making is assured. An additional imperative and a cause of considerable urgency for this project is the formation of the new single ANSP to manage ATM in both FIRs; the Concept of Operations will assist in defining operational concepts for the new ANSP. Hence, in one sense, the new single ANSP is the primary client for this Proposed Project. Development of Capacity Analysis Capability. The capability to scientifically analyse demand and capacity of the route structure and ATC sectorisation (with respect to the current and future operations, fleet capability and schedules) will help to identify and prioritise current problems in the route structure and support planning for route changes and re-sectorisation. It will also be needed to support planning for terminal area and airport operation improvements. The need for Capacity Analysis will be ongoing throughout the Resectorisation project and for future projects. Therefore the primary objective of this project is to develop the capability for Capacity Analysis within the Indonesian aviation agencies through the transfer of technology (software), expertise and knowledge. 1.2 SCOPING STUDY OBJECTIVES This Scoping Study set out to achieve the objectives shown in the following table. Table 2: Strategic Airspace Approach to the Task Our Aim Achieved? Where Define the roles of each of the aviation agencies in the Indonesian environment and the relationships between them; Identify the stakeholders at various levels (executive and operational) within the pertinent organisations that will be required for development of each of the projects. Define the timescale for the CONOPS, the Resectorisation project and the Capacity Analysis project. Describe the relationships between the CONOPS, Resectorisation and Capacity studies. Yes Yes Yes Yes Chapter 2 Context Annexe 3 Stakeholder Engagement Plan Chapter 5 Project Implementation Chapter 1 Introduction and Chapter 5 Project 3

20 Our Aim Achieved? Where Implementation Refer to other CONOPS / Resectorisation Plans and relevant standards for any required comparisons, compatibility and (potentially) gap analysis. For example reference should be made to the ICAO Global ATM Operational Concept. Refer to national and international standards as appropriate. Define the expected contents of the CONOPS document. Define the expected outcomes of Re-sectorisation project. Define the expected outcomes of Capacity Analysis project. Define the Airspace Performance Metrics expected to be applied for the Resectorisation project. Define the expected update cycle of the outputs from both projects. Give an outline of the types of personnel (in terms of knowledge, skills and experience) required for each of the projects. Give an estimate of the expected time for completion of each of the projects. Provide an indication of the budget for each of the projects. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Various Various CONOPS SoW Resectorisation SoW Capacity Analysis SoW Chapter 6 Metrics & Key Performance Indicators Various Chapter 5 Project Implementation Chapter 5 Project Implementation Chapter 5 Project Implementation Describe the potential benefits of each of the projects. Yes Various Describe any perceived risks inherent in each of the projects. Yes 4.5 Risk Profiles ANNEXE 1: Strengths, Weaknesses & Threats 4

21 CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT Globalisation is not only a driver for economic growth and development: it also affects the implementation of the technical standards in many industries, including aviation. Thus, there is a requirement to contribute and comply with international standards primarily, ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs). While it is necessary for individual States to comply with globally accepted aviation standards and to integrate with a global Air Traffic Management (ATM) framework, it is essential that this task is undertaken in a way that recognises the unique geo political factors of the region as well as national and organisational cultures. The following contextual information is provided as background for any assessment of work required to complete a review and implementation of airspace changes, and for the introduction and implementation of a Concept of Operations. The Republic of Indonesia has a thriving economy with a rapidly expanding aviation sector. In terms of air traffic, it has a large and growing domestic fleet and increasing international traffic including a large number of overflying aircraft. Its geographic nature, being the world s largest archipelago, and its location at the crossroads between south-east Asia and Oceania provide a challenging environment for Air Traffic Management. 2.1 GEOGRAPHY The IndII-sponsored Open Sky Stage 2 1 report provides the following succinct description of the Indonesian geographic archipelago: Indonesia is the biggest archipelago in the world consisting of some 18,000 islands over an area of 5,110 km from east to west and 1,800 km from north to south. Its unique geographical situation, lack of surface infrastructure, large and growing population and ongoing economic prosperity continues to increase the country s propensity to fly, making it one of the fastest-growing countries in terms of air traffic demand in the world. The Indonesian airspace is split into two Flight Information Regions (FIRs), as depicted in Figure 3 (page 10). The (western) Jakarta FIR is managed from the Jakarta ATC Centre, and the (eastern) Ujung Pandang FIR is managed an ATC centre in Makassar. The figure provides an overview of the current route structure in the two (2) FIRs and 1 ation%20of%20asean%20open%20sky%20policy%20stage%202%20 %20Final%20Report.pdf 5

22 also illustrates the extent of over-flight routes through the Indonesian airspace to/from the 10 adjacent FIRs, which are managed by other States. Figure 3: Indonesian FIR Boundaries Source: DGCA 2.2 POLITICAL AND ORGANISATIONAL Air Traffic Management is currently provided by three primary agencies supported by a separate training college. The primary delivery of services is undertaken by two stateowned enterprises and an element of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation regulated from within the Ministry of Transport (MOT) by the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). The state-owned enterprises are Angkasa Pura (formerly Angkasa Pura I, AP I), which provides services within the Ujung Pandang FIR from Makassar (with head office in Jakarta); and Angkasa Pura II, which provides services within the Jakarta FIR (head office at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport). Both organisations manage not only the airspace but also own and operate all services at the major aerodromes within their respective FIRs. The Boards of Directors of both AP I and AP II are responsible to the owner through the Minster of State Owned Enterprises (MSOE). The provision of Air Traffic Management 6

23 CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT is not the primary business of the Angkasa Pura: the primary business is managing the major airports The Sanskrit term Angkasa Pura translates literally into English sky city or airport. Because this of the issues and problems of demand and capacity are sometimes seen as issues relating to the airports, not aerodromes or airspace. Although the DGCA is the State regulator, it is not an entirely independent regulator because it provides a variety of services including: operation of some airports (some of which it also owns); air traffic services at many aerodromes that are not serviced by AP I or AP II; and Aeronautical Information Services. Figure 4: Indonesian Aviation Agency Overview Current Situation In addition to the above, there are an unknown (relatively small) number of private services associated with large mining sites. These services are not, at present, subject to any regulatory oversight; they probably only consist of some form of flight following and SAR alerting service. As there is an international commitment by Indonesia to the reduction of carbon emissions the Ministry of Environment is both interested and involved in aerodrome and airspace management. The Military have responsibility for aerodromes and restricted airspace for military training and other operational purposes. There is little or no history of cooperation with the civil agencies in regard to airspace usage or management. 7

24 In September 2012, the President signed Law 22, 2012 which created a new Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP) that will take-over all ATM functions currently performed by AP I, AP II and DGCA. AP I and AP II will remain as airport operators, and DGCA will retain its regulatory functions. This provision of a single regulator that is decoupled from service provision is a recommendation of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and is the model used by the vast majority of ICAO Contracting States The complete transfer of ATS to the new organisation is planned to take two years. Following this transfer, AP I and AP II will continue to operate as airport management organisations. Whilst the transition process and transfer of functions may not provide the ideal environment for conducting the Proposed Projects completion of the Proposed Projects as early as possible will provide better information and a more certain basis for tasks for the new ANSP. Figure 5: Indonesian Aviation Agency Overview Future (Post-Transition) 2.3 AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT The characteristics ATM in of each the FIRs are briefly described below Characteristics Common To Both FIRs The current air route structure has not been updated for many years and is based on historical traffic requirements and design concepts. Because of this it is not able to effectively or efficiently support current traffic requirements. The route structure is 8

25 CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT mostly based upon conventional navigation using ground based navaids as the start and end points of routes. Jakarta terminal area acts as hub for most domestic airline traffic. Most of the airspace congestion problems exist with 200NM of Jakarta as this is one of the main hubs. This congestion is not surprising as four of the world s 21 busiest air routes, terminate at Jakarta. Soekarno-Hatta is not in the top thirty airports in terms of movements but it is the ninth busiest in the world by passengers per annum. The relative size of traffic densities for city pairs linked with Jakarta is illustrated in Figure 6 below (the diagram was provided by Jakarta Area Control Centre). There is a Performance Based Navigation (PBN) plan but it is only in the very early stages of implementation. The route structure might be less congested with the use of more PBN routes because of the flexibility and reduced separation standards it offers; however, at present there are only a few RNAV high level routes for over-flights, some RNAV SIDs and STARs and some RNP and RNP-AR approaches (recently published, but not yet implemented). The international air routes, in some cases, share the underlying domestic structure. There are hot spots in terms of traffic delays and conflict points within the upper airspace. The trend to more congested upper airspace will continue with the growth in traffic unless the route structure is revised. The route structure is inhibited by military restricted airspace which is rarely shared with civil traffic. The air route structure for both the Jakarta and Makassar FIRs is published in the Indonesian AIP. The busiest ATC sectors are around Jakarta as the busiest routes terminate there. Table 5 Jakarta FIR Sector Traffic for September 2011 provides an example of traffic movements within the current sectorisation for Jakarta FIR. Figure 6: Traffic Density Comparison Source: Jakarta Airspace Management and Flow Management Proposal 2012, AP II 9

26 2.3.2 Air Traffic Management - Jakarta FIR AP II, based at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport (SHIA), provides ATM within the Jakarta FIR controlling both domestic and international traffic including over-flights. The Jakarta Air Traffic Control (JATC) is responsible for providing Air Traffic Control services within seven sectors as shown in Table 3 below and is also responsible for all aerodrome control functions at SHIA. AP II is also responsible for the management of, and providing ATS for, 11 other airports within the Jakarta FIR. These airports are listed in the table below. Table 3: Airports that AP II Operates Airport Name SOEKARNO-HATTA Polonia Sultan Syarif Kasim II Supadio Minangkabau Sultan Mahmud Badaruddin II Husein Sastranegara Halim Perdanakusuma Sultan Taha Sultan Iskandar Muda Raja Haji Fisabilillah T Amir Depati Airport Location JAKARTA (CGK) MEDAN (MDN) PEKANBARU (PKU) PONTIANAK PADANG (MKB) PALEMBANG (PLB) BANDUNG (BND) JAKARTA JAMBI (JMB) BAND ACEH (SIM) TANJUNGPINANG (TJP) L nut PANGKA 10

27 CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT Figure 7: Current Jakarta FIR ATC Sectorisation Source: AP II Figure 8: Proposed Sectorisation Jakarta FIR Source: AP II 11

28 Figure 8 above shows AP II s plan for a revision of the sectorisation of the Jakarta FIR. This plan has been developed because of concerns about safety and efficiency. The proposed sectorisation sub-divides some of the busiest current sectors in an attempt to reduce ATC workload to more acceptable and safer levels. Modelling based on international experience is likely to show an increase in workload. The proposed changes do not include any changes to the underlying route structure. While AP II has done considerable work on the proposed sector changes they are not yet approved by DGCA because there are insufficient trained controllers to man the proposed 11 sectors (there are currently 7). As well, there are insufficient workstations with the current JAATS system to safely support the proposal; this will be rectified when the EJAATS system becomes operational. The assertion that workload would be decreased and safety increased is not supported by any FTS capacity analysis. Further, a Safety Case has not yet been prepared for the proposed changes. Figure 9 below provides an illustration of the Jakarta FIR air routes for both domestic and for international flights. Figure 9: Air Route Structure Jakarta FIR Source: AP II 12

29 CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT Air Traffic Management Ujung Pandang FIR Angkasa Pura (AP 1), based at Bandara Hasanuddin International Airport (BHIA), in the City of Makassar, provides ATM within the Ujung Pandang FIR controlling both domestic and international traffic including over-flights. It controls both domestic and international traffic within and transiting the FIR except for a small low level portion released to Timor Leste. The Makassar Air Traffic Control Centre also provides all aerodrome control functions at BHIA. AP I is also responsible for the management, including ATS, of 12 other airports within the Ujung Pandang FIR. These airports are listed in the table below. Table 4: AP I Makassar Airports Airport Name Bandara Ngurah Rai Bandara Juanda Bandara Hasanuddin Bandara Sepinggan Bandara Frans Kaisiepo Bandara Sam Ratulangi Bandara Syamsudin Noor Bandara Ahmad Yani Bandara Adisutjipto Bandara Adisumarmo Bandara Selaparang Bandara Pattimura Bandara El Tari Airport Location Denpasar (DPS) Surabaya (SUB) Makassar (MKS) Balikpapan Biak Manado (MDO) Banjarmasin Semarang (SMG) Yogyakarta (JOG) Surakarta Mataram Ambon Kupang The Makassar Air Traffic Control is responsible for the airspace shown below. Air Traffic Control services are provided from within five sectors. 13

30 Figure 10: Ujung Pandang Current Sectorisation Source: AP I Due to increases in traffic and the need to address conflict areas that are generating ATC incidents, there is a proposal to resectorise the airspace, sub-dividing the busiest sectors, and create two additional sectors. The status of this project was not established during the scoping study. The proposed new sectorisation is shown in Figure 11 below. Figure 11: Proposed Sectorisation for Ujung Pandang FIR Source: AP I 14

31 CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT 2.4 COMMUNICATION, NAVIGATION AND SURVEILLANCE (CNS) The Jakarta Air ATC System (JAATS) consists of flight data and radar data processing, voice communications, and aeronautical information systems. The systems are old and are due for replacement; some of the ATC workstations are unserviceable. An emergency system called EJAATS is under construction and should be commissioned in November 2012 to ensure safe continuity of service whilst a more comprehensive system replacement is acquired. This interim system will be more capable than the present system; utilising flight and surveillance data to better advantage. For example, the current system is not able to simultaneously process ADS-B data with the radar data; this will be resolved with EJAATS. The Makassar Air Traffic Control System (MAATS) is a Thales flight data and surveillance data processing and display system. It is much newer that the JAATS and is able to swap data with The Australian Advanced Air Traffic Control System (TAAATS); however, it does not interface as well with the current JAATS system. This gap in capability should be addressed when the new EJAATS system becomes operational. This will alleviate some of the current coordination issues between Jakarta FIR and Ujung Pandang FIR. The route structure is based on ground based navigation; satellite based navigation is only utilised (in the route structure) for some over-flights. PBN is only just being introduced with some RNAV SIDs and STARs recently introduced at CGK, a few RNP APCH approaches and some operator specific RNP-AR approaches at Manado and Ambon. There is electronic surveillance data servicing all IFR flight operations except those in the Oceanic Airspace to the south and some areas over Papua (Figure 12 below indicates the extent of ADSB Coverage for Indonesia; a radar coverage diagram was not available for publication.) There are some issues with the use of this data; its quality is questionable (availability and accuracy) and so for some of the busier routes procedural separation standards are used despite the fact that radar coverage that is available. The EJAATS commissioning should address some of these issues in the Jakarta FIR, but may still be compromised subject to the extent of the availability and accuracy of data). 15

32 Figure 12: ADSB Coverage for Indonesia Source: PBN Implementation and CNS Infrastructure, 2010, DGCA There is almost complete VHF radio coverage of the major air routes. There are some exceptions to this including some areas in the east, some oceanic airspace, and some areas of Papua. Figure 13 below is sourced from the ATM Master plan and shows the coverage at or above FL245. There are some planned extensions to VHF communications. Figure 13: VHF Coverage for Upper Airspace Source: ATM Master Plan, Figure 22, IndII 16

33 CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT 2.5 AVIATION ACTIVITY Aviation in Indonesia is already substantial and is growing at an annual rate of 8.4%. There are over 16 domestic airlines and a significant number of international operators operating into, and overflying, Indonesia. There is also a growing number of general and charter movements with activities such as aviation training and fly-in / fly-out for mining. A more comprehensive analysis of traffic and passenger numbers can be seen in the Open Sky report, sponsored by IndII in 2011 and available on the IndII web site ( A graph from that report showing the forecast growth of movements is shown in Figure 14. Figure 14: Growth in Public Transport Movements Source: IndII Open Sky Policy Stage 2 Final Report (Figure 86) Currently some city pairs, and the surrounding ATC sectors, are overloaded for some parts of the day. As Jakarta acts as a hub for most domestic traffic, there are significant delays for departures and arrivals with demand far exceeding both the airspace and ATC capacity. Four of the top 21 busiest routes worldwide (in 2011) terminate at Jakarta 2. These routes are: Jakarta-Singapore (10 th busiest); Jakarta-Denpasar (12 th busiest); Jakarta- Surabaya (19 th busiest) and Jakarta-Medan (21 st busiest). 2 Source: Centre for Aviation

34 Table 5: Jakarta FIR Sector Traffic for September 2011 Meaning: Rata-Rata per Hari Average Movements Per Day Source: Jakarta Airspace Management and Flow Management Proposal 2012, AP II A more efficient air route structure and consequent ATC sectorisation are perceived to be urgently required to cope with the growing demand. Other changes including improved ATC procedures and new systems are also needed to assist the ATM system to handle the growth in demand. 18

35 CHAPTER 3: STAKEHOLDERS CHAPTER 3: STAKEHOLDERS 3.1 INTRODUCTION The description of methodology used in the scoping study (see 0) provides an outline of the workshops conducted and presentations delivered. Additionally, individual and group meetings were held with staff from DGCA, AP I and AP II and the airlines. The attendees of all workshops, presentations and stakeholder meetings are recorded in the stakeholder management spreadsheet. This contains the details of each stakeholder involved in the study. The approach to stakeholders is discussed below. 3.2 OVERVIEW OF STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT Stakeholder management involves not only the planning of objectives, having a clear engagement strategy and identifying stakeholders but also listening to all stakeholder concerns and influencing key stakeholders to ensure success of the proposed project. To fulfil the requirements of this scoping project and to begin the process of IndII working with stakeholders for the proposed projects the objectives were as follows: 1. To identify key stakeholders within DGCA, service providers, and critical users of airspace; as well as to use their knowledge to identify risks, issues, and requirements in airspace management and airspace capacity; 2. To assess attitude or orientation of the key stakeholders towards the need for the projects and to attempt to influence them towards a positive position; and 3. To obtain viewpoints from the prospective participants in the projects as to how the implementation of the projects might be undertaken to ensure their success and to obtain maximum, and continuing, benefit for Indonesian aviation. The last objective is critical to the success of the projects. Some previous projects have not delivered successful outcomes from the point of view of the stakeholders in DGCA and the ANSPs. This point was made by all the managers in the Directorate of Air Navigation. Some of the early reluctance on the part of some stakeholders to participate in the scoping study could be attributed to what are seen as failed projects. For the purposes of this scoping study, key stakeholders are those people who have direct influence upon, or will be directly affected by, the changes in airspace and capacity management and have an interest in the development of a CONOPS. The following classes of stakeholders are considered to be key stakeholder groups. 1. Users of ATM services: key staff of the major airlines and representatives of airline associations; 2. Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs): In this case key staff within AP I and AP II. Consideration also needs to be given to the fact that at the present time DGCA 19

36 provides some Air Navigation services and, although only an embryo at the moment, the new single ANSP; 3. DGCA as the Regulator: The primary stakeholder is the Directorate of Air Navigation of DGCA but others, such as Air Transport, Airports and Airworthiness, have an interest (in particular, in the CONOPS project). Note that Air Transport Division was notified of the scoping projects although it was not directly invited; 4. Staff Associations: Including the representatives of both Air Traffic Service Officers and Pilots associations; and 5. External (Foreign) Agencies & Industry Bodies: This includes the ICAO, the Regulatory and ANSP agencies of adjacent FIRs and international aviation organisations such as IATA. 3.3 KEY INDONESIAN STAKEHOLDER GROUPS The key stakeholders are common to both projects (#289 and #290). The full details of all stakeholders who participated in the scoping study are provided within Attachment 2. A summary of the key stakeholders and their attitudes to these projects is provided below. Table 6: Key Indonesian Stakeholders Interest Organisation Orientation Remarks Regulator DGCA Positive Very positive response from some in DGCA with clear recognition of the need for route and sector changes and the need for capacity analysis capability from some in DGCA. Not everybody understands the need for change for both efficiency and safety possibly this anomaly is due to internal politics. ANSP AP II Positive Expressed concern regarding current workload, traffic complexities and densities and requires assistance in demand and capacity measurement and management. Good attendance and enthusiasm at workshops and meetings but this enthusiasm diminished later in the project. Hoping for improvements from the implementation of Flow Management. AP I Positive Despite repeated invitations, AP I did not participate much in the early part of the assessment. Later they started to show keen interest and have factored the proposed projects into their forward planning. They have similar needs to AP II. New ANSP Unknown The major client of the Proposed Projects, however, unknown structure and attitudes as only working 20

37 CHAPTER 3: STAKEHOLDERS Interest Organisation Orientation Remarks groups to set up organisation exist at the time of writing. The new ANSP may not have sufficient operational staff in the early stages of the Proposed Projects to influence the projects. Users Lion Air Positive Will cooperate with any changes that make it simpler and reduce airborne delays. Garuda Positive Concerned about the traffic densities and the consequent safety implications. Very concerned that the number of incidents is increasing year on year. They expressed a willingness to cooperate with any changes that address these issues. Staff Representatives IATCA Positive ATC staff want to have more tools to be able to measure and control capacity to support resectorisation INACA FPI The airline industry supports any change that will simplify air routes and provide additional capacity Pilots association supports and wants to see that ATC staff have the appropriate training on any new equipment or procedure. 3.4 EXTERNAL ATM AND FOREIGN AGENCIES The Australian Government involvement in aviation infrastructure and safety initiatives in the Republic of Indonesia is quite clear and all agencies cooperate to ensure that there is no overlap and the agencies work well together. There is interaction between Airservices Australia and AP I and AP II on operational matters concerning the interaction between Australian and Indonesian FIRs. This is outlined in Table 7 below. The degree of interaction with ANSPs from other adjacent FIRs is unclear. Table 7: Australian Aid & Support Organisations working within the Indonesian ATM Framework Sponsoring Organisation Participant Organisation Remarks INDII Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative. (AusAID Project managed by SMEC) Selected by competitive tender from within a preregistered pool of Companies and Consultants To promote economic growth by working with the Government of Indonesia to enhance infrastructure policy, planning and investment. This includes aviation infrastructure. 21

38 Sponsoring Organisation Participant Organisation Remarks ITSAP Indonesia Transport Safety Assistance Package Managed by The Department of Infrastructure and Transport. Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) Airservices Australia AMSA ATSB Other Australian Consultants and companies employed through the above agencies. ITSAP provides technical and training assistance to support Indonesia in addressing its aviation, maritime and road transport safety challenges. Airservices Australia Airservices Australia Airservices works directly with AP I and AP II on operational matters concerning the interface between Australian and Indonesian FIRs. The extent of the involvement of non-australian foreign agencies has been difficult to determine because of the lack of cooperation from some agencies. There is a strong chance of overlap and duplication of projects with the non-australian foreign agencies. The proposed Concept of Operations, once completed and approved by the DGCA, would be one effective mitigation against the risk projects from competing aid agencies providing conflicting outcomes. The following table provides an assessment of the known involvement of external agencies. The ICAO involvement is well understood as current ICAO projects running on site are well understood and integrated into the activities of both IndII and ITSAP. Table 8: External Agencies (other than Australia) Entity Organisation Orientation Government of Japan JICA Neutral Historically secretive and unwilling to integrate activities United States of America (Government & Commercial) FAA IASA (under FAA) TSA NTSB Positive Supportive with keen interest by FAA regarding Safety Management. Commercial orientation by vendors Boeing Jeppesen 22

39 CHAPTER 3: STAKEHOLDERS Entity Organisation Orientation France (Government & Commercial) DGAC Thales Neutral Support for Commercial vendors Airbus People s Republic of China Unknown but understood to be active in transport sector Government of Sweden LFV Neutral Commercial orientation. No obvious signs of cooperation with other agencies Government of the Netherlands LVNL Unknown NLR Provides support to CURUG Indonesian aviation training college. ICAO Regional Office Positive COSCAP Engaged with ITSAP and IndII activities. TCB (onsite project) IATA Local representative Positive Interest in safety and efficiency Adjacent State FIRs Australia Unknown (Except Australia and USA) Singapore Malaysia Operational level engagement with AP I / APII and DGCA. Papua New Guinea Philippines United States India Sri Lanka 3.5 STAKEHOLDER ASSESSMENT The stakeholder assessment, given in the following diagram (Figure 15), takes into account the strength of support or otherwise (orientation) towards the proposed projects and the levels of influence they have on the success (Criticality to Success) of the proposed projects. For the purposes of this report, the organisations and / or staff identified in paragraph 3.3 (Key Indonesian Stakeholder Groups) and the Australian Government sponsored organisations identified in paragraph 3.4 (External ATM and 23

40 Foreign Agencies Table 8) are considered to be key stakeholders and able to impact the success of the prospective projects. The rationale for including the Australian stakeholders can be found in the level of risk exposure the Australian Government may be exposed to given any adverse safety outcomes within Indonesian airspace. Figure 15: Stakeholder Assessment Grid Other Foreign Resistant Neutral IATA/ ICAO US/FAA Regulator Staff Airlines ANSP IndII/ITSAP SUPPORTIVE Low Medium HIGH Criticality to Success 24

41 CHAPTER 4: KEY FINDINGS CHAPTER 4: KEY FINDINGS 4.1 INTRODUCTION This chapter summarises the key findings of the project team. The summary is presented in a number of tables that outline the characteristics of several dimensions of the environment within which the Proposed Projects will be undertaken. The assessment is simply the potential effect on the projects of each particular characteristic. Comments are also made about particular aspects of the characteristic: some are positive and some negative. Generally these comments are subjective opinions formed during workshops or discussions with various stakeholders. The dimensions explored in the following sections are: The general context of ATM in Indonesia at the present time. This mostly demonstrates the need for the proposed projects but also covers the possible complexity involved because of the many changes taking place in the aviation sector at present; The capabilities of the Indonesian agencies. To affect the changes that are necessary to complete the requirements of the Proposed Projects; and The context of undertaking these projects as aid funded projects. This partly discusses some impressions of difficulties encountered during the Scoping Project where it is considered these may affect the conduct of the Proposed Projects. 4.2 ASSESSMENT OF INDONESIAN ATM CONTEXT There is a lot of activity in ATM in Indonesia at the present time. The most important single factor that will affect the proposed Projects is the formation of the single ANSP to take over all ATM functions in Indonesia. There is the opportunity to provide substantial assistance to Indonesian aviation through the CONOPS project as an operational concept is urgently needed to assist in the orderly formation of the new organisation. Discussions with advisors to the implementation of the ANSP have confirmed the absence of a CONOPS and the urgent requirement for one in this context. Also of significance for the immediate future is the concern of inadequate safety levels in some Indonesian airspace as traffic levels are exceeding the safe capacity of the existing ATM arrangements in some locations. There are a variety of factors contributing to this but some that can be improved include the airspace and route structure as they are configured at the present time. This safety aspect and the associated efficiency improvements is the subject of two of the Proposed Projects. Other projects being undertaken locally may have some effect on the Proposed Projects. 25

42 Table 9: Indonesian ATM Context Characteristic Effect Remarks Embryo single ANSP Outdated airspace and route structure Increasing air traffic increasing demand for scarce airspace Major technology changes pending Major opportunity but considerable uncertainty Driver for Capacity Analysis and Resectorisation Projects Current congestion problems will get worse further diminishing safety and efficiency CONOPS needed to ensure suitability and uniformity; capability could affect Resectorisation Opportunity to provide substantial benefit to Indonesian aviation; New ANSP is major (silent at present) stakeholder with no operational functions for some time; Possibly some competition between sections of AP I, AP II and DGCA. In some sectors safe capacity exceeded on a regular basis this needs urgent attention Route structure inappropriate for current traffic demands Route structure uses conventional navigation Significant inefficiencies manifested as delays both on the ground and in the air have significant cost and environmental effects Estimated current 8% annual increase in aviation sector; Increasing workload on ATCO; increasing demand for pilots to work extended hours; ASEAN Open Skys policy (starting in 2013) will introduce more carriers Change from JAATS to ejaats (emergency- JAATS) until new JAATS replacement is sourced and commissioned. New JAATS should be sourced using CONOPS requirements; ATFM and CDM under investigation (separately) by both AP I and AP II seen as partial solution to airspace congestion problems; PBN only in the earliest stages of implementation still many regulatory and operational requirements to be satisfied; ADS-B ground stations in place but aircraft fitment not yet mandated; 26

43 CHAPTER 4: KEY FINDINGS Characteristic Effect Remarks Limited experience in some areas for vital functions to implement changes Disparate functions and roles across all three primary aviation agencies Need to develop capability including procedures for development, approval and implementation of changes Possible difficulty getting agreement form stakeholders Very little or no experience the development of safety cases and risk assessment for ATM changes; No experience in capacity analysis using FTS or other metrics; Limited experience in change management generally; Limited or no experience in route structure changes; Limited experience with the implementation and regulation of PBN; Mitigated by formation of new ANSP 4.3 ASSESSMENT OF INDONESIAN AGENCIES CAPABILITIES The Indonesian aviation agencies have some appropriate resources to attend to the proposed changes, however, they are generally only available for such projects if they work extra overtime. In some areas, however, they lack the expertise, experience and tools needed to undertake the Proposed Projects. As well, with so much change taking place at the present time resources are be stretched. The factors outlined in the following table could or will have some effect upon the Proposed Projects. Table 10: Indonesian Aviation Capabilities Characteristic Effect Remarks Significant technical competence within agencies Positive benefit if it can be harnessed and utilised in the Proposed Projects Experience and expertise in ATM can be utilised by proposed projects. It is envisaged that embedding staff in the project team will provide project resources, foster ownership by local agencies and allow the projects to continue beyond the timeframe (and funding) of the Proposed Projects. Some of the Proposed Projects offer the potential for staff to extend expertise and experience into valuable new areas and enhance their CVs. This is a very positive selling point for the Capacity Analysis project and, to a slightly lesser extent, the Re-sectorisation project. 27

44 Characteristic Effect Remarks Significant understanding of the need for airspace change Lesser interest for and understanding of the need for CONOPS Lack of understanding of and experience with risk and safety management as well as change management Understanding of and experience with regulatory approval processes Driver for Proposed Projects Potential impediment to CONOPS Potential impediment to Re-sectorisation project Potential impediment to Re-sectorisation project There is an appreciation of the urgent need to attend to re-sectorisation for safety reasons particularly from pilots (they feel their own and their passengers lives are at risk) and ATC (their clients are at risk as well as their careers). Efficiency is also a lesser and mostly corporate consideration. Existing projects for re-sectorisation are evidence of this understanding. There is also an understanding that the route structure needs updating including introducing PBN. These projects have been undertaken by operational staff in their spare/extra time which probably means they are more protective of these projects. After enthusiastically presenting their proposed resectorisation, AP II were reluctant to have further discussions. It is generally recognised that capacity modelling is needed to provide a scientific basis for both route changes and re-sectorisation. Because the benefit was seen to be longer term. Changed attitude because of the formation of the new single ANSP. Now there is a very immediate need for this project And an urgency to prepare a CONOPS to help organise the business activities of the new ANSP Existing re-sectorisation plans are not supported by a safety case or risk assessment. This is part of the reason they have not been approved. Change management procedures are generally not considered necessary by the Indonesian agencies. There is a lack of understanding of regulatory functions generally including the approval processes for changes to ATM arrangements. 4.4 POTENTIAL FOREIGN AID CHARACTERISTICS AFFECTING THE PROJECTS During the course of the Scoping Project there was some surrounding debate about the reluctance of Indonesian agencies to work with aid agencies and about agencies not 28

45 CHAPTER 4: KEY FINDINGS cooperating with each other. Some attitudes to aid projects are briefly outlined below. These are generally restricted to attitudes that may affect the Proposed Projects. Table 11: Potential Foreign Aid Characteristics & Effect on Projects Characteristic Effect Remarks General attitude to foreign aid projects Uncoordinated projects from different aid agencies Some previous projects seen as failures (failure may occur for a variety of reasons ranging from under-funding of projects to lack of cultural sensitivity) Unlikely to be a problem for the Proposed Projects as most agencies enthusiastic Possible but unlikely impediment Possible impediment mostly for the CONOPS project because of its relationship to the ATM Masterplan There was also some discussion about the reluctance of some Indonesian agencies to cooperate with aid projects. This could be for the reasons outlined below. There were some difficulties getting the attention / support of some agencies / managers during the Scoping Study. Cultural differences and sensitivities may affect the outcome of projects NB: Australians appear to be well received by most. During the course of the Scoping Study there was discussion between aid donors and agencies in an attempt to coordinate efforts; some aid agencies were unwilling to cooperate. Some aid initiatives would appear to be intended to gain commercial benefit for companies from the donor state. The duplication of effort and the attitude of donor agencies can engender some suspicion about foreign aid projects. If some effort has been made by local agencies and an aid project is perceived to be a failure there may be a reluctance to make an effort for the next project. All managers dealt with in DGCA mentioned the failure of previous projects where the result didn t suit the current and evolving circumstances. The IndII sponsored ATM Masterplan is seen in this light. Consequently, there was some initial suspicion about both the Scoping Project and the Proposed Projects. A project is more likely to receive support if: o the products of a project are tangible. o a project is perceived to be developing local capability (knowledge / technology transfer). Thus there is probably greatest local support for the Capacity Analysis project followed by the Re-sectorisation project. 29

46 Characteristic Effect Remarks Some project outcomes perceived to be of little or no benefit; therefore not translated into implementation Desire to undertake and complete tasks without aid Potential impediment mostly for the CONOPS project; Capacity and Resectorisation have more tangible outputs and develop capability Potential impediment possibly for the for the CONOPS project because an internal ATM Masterplan is being developed; there may be some sensitivities with respect to the sectorisation project because of project already initiated. Lack of benefit possibly because results not suited to organisational culture or relevant to current circumstances. Projects that appear to provide advice only are less likely to be effective: there appears to be an appetite for projects that produce tangible results rather than just provide advice. Stakeholders exhibited the least interest in the CONOPS project, possibly because it is the most abstract and has longer term benefit (ie, less tangible now in relation to pressing concerns). The inception of the new single ANSP has changed this because it is recognised that it will help in the definition and organisation of the core business of the new ANSP. Natural reaction from some managers. however, the key managers in DGCA and some managers in the APs do not have this attitude. Some may be protective of (their own) existing projects, including: DGCA/DAN ATM Masterplan; proposed route changes; proposed re-sectorisation; and PBN implementation projects. 4.5 RISK PROFILES Application of Risk Management for Change Two aspects of the Indonesian environment that directly affect the application of risk management are as follows: there is either no effective method of assessing and stating the risk of any change (either forced or prospective) or else, there is an existing method but, it is not generally well known or understood; and there is no birds eye view of the consolidated strategic risk profile versus the risk appetite of organisations. Both of these factors need to be in place to manage not only risk at an organisational level but also to manage change; these two factors are very much interrelated. 30

47 CHAPTER 4: KEY FINDINGS The development of a safety case should be a necessary part of both change and risk management. Any future changes, such as airspace changes, should not occur unless under the control of a recognised change management methodology, such as Project Management, and subject to rigorous hazard analysis as part of a safety case Risk Exposure An overall impression of the risk profile of both the regulator and the ANSPs was gained during the scoping projects. Based on observations, the issues that have been identified have been evaluated using a simplified failure mode analysis, as follows: 1. Some key issues and risks, observed during this project, have been identified and analysed within Table 12 below. These are assessed against their perceived hazard level. 2. The likelihood and consequence of each issue negatively affecting the organisation has been (simply) evaluated. The hazard represented to the organisation has been plotted against the standard risk matrix, which is derived from ISO/ASNZ 4360, and is shown at Figure 16 below. Superimposed on this is the risk appetite is the ICAO risk level of ALARP as the upper level of what should be the risk appetite for any organisation in this industry. This is stipulated in ICAO Document 9859 as ALARP. 3. The level of control available for each of these issues/risks has been assessed. Note that this assessment is based on feedback as a result of the discussions and workshops and as well as personal observations and analysis and so should be considered as order of magnitude or anecdotal. More rigorous risk management processes will need to be applied to any future project activity. The results have been plotted against a risk appetite that is assumed to be ALARP. Table 12: Preliminary Qualitative Risk Assessment No Situation - Anecdotal Hazard Level Controls A It appears that traffic levels regularly exceed what is generally accepted as reasonable capacity in some ATC sectors within 200nm of Jakarta. Unacceptable Low Given all the other circumstances outlined in this document, the organisational controls that are available to manage this risk are inadequate. B Attempts are being made to change. However, the safety and regulatory assessment and approval processes are too slow to keep up with the increasing traffic demands and the increasing complexity of airspace and technology. ALARP Medium Given management endorsement, a simple SOP, and safety training this could occur quite rapidly. 31

48 No Situation - Anecdotal Hazard Level Controls C There are no tools in use to assist in simulating current or future traffic flows and no way of empirically obtaining capacity figures. ALARP Medium A conservative approach and theoretic calculations might assist. D Future development of ATM is not controlled by a single policy level vision to guide future capital and other works. ALARP Low Unless this occurs it will lead to a continuation of the adhoc development of ATM; however, it won t directly affect safety except that disparate and incompatible systems limit the capability to safely handle unusual circumstances. Each of the risk categories defined in the table above are also depicted graphically in Figure 16 and Figure 17 below. Figure 16: Risk Assessment For details of Categories A, B, C & D, refer to Table 12 above. 32

49 CHAPTER 4: KEY FINDINGS Figure 17: Risk Profile For details of Categories A, B, C & D, refer to Table 12 above. The results of this analysis fed into the key findings of this report, and were also take into account during the development of the Scopes of Work for the three proposed projects resulting from this work. 4.6 SCOPES OF WORK (SOWS) CONOPS, CAPACITY ANALYSIS, RESECTORISATION The results of the synthesis of workshop and interview outcomes, review of Indonesian regulatory and Indonesian and international standards, guidance and other relevant material, as well as review of the key findings were all considered when developing the Scope of Work (SOW) for each of the required projects: Development of a CONOPS, Capacity Analysis, and Resectorisation. The three (3) SOWs are self-contained documents and each has been treated as a separate deliverable. Note that each SOW also includes project objectives and key performance indicators in relation to the projects. The SOWs are discussed further within the context of Project Implementation in the following chapter regarding project implementation. 33

50 CHAPTER 5: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 5.1 INTRODUCTION The lifetime of the Re-sectorisation project will be shorter than the time-span required for implementation of the changes recommended by the project. There are several reasons for this: Full implementation of re-designed routes and airspace may be staged to lessen the risks associated with this process; and The effort required for full implementation would be greater than the available using only the available resources of the agencies concerned. As well, ongoing change will be required because of: The introduction of new technology (ATM the new ejaats and JAATS systems; navigation Performance Based Navigation; and surveillance ADS-B) may mean that further airspace and route changes are beneficial / required following initial changes; Changes to route structure will be required as traffic requirements / demand changes; and Change may be required (for example, to procedures) following the new ANSP starting operations. Therefore, ongoing FTS will be required beyond the life of the Capacity Analysis project: for the Re-sectorisation project; and for other airspace and /or airport studies. Ongoing route changes will also be required as demand changes in the medium and longer terms. The Concept of Operations should, under normal circumstances, remain unchanged for some time; however, with the abnormal circumstance of the formation of a new ANSP this may not be the case. The new ANSP may wish to modify the CONOPS in some fashion after it becomes operational. The implementation of these projects has to take these factors into consideration. 5.2 PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY Objectives The objectives of each of the projects are: To produce data, results and reports containing recommendations. 34

51 CHAPTER 5: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION To develop the skills, expertise and experience through education and mentoring of local staff in the subject areas of the particular project. To develop the skills, expertise and experience in the Change and Risk Management and the preparation of Safety Cases. To develop SOPS, that suit local requirements, as needed for undertaking project tasks and obtaining approval for implementation of the outcomes. This should include the development of metrics that validate the benefits of the changes Approach From the above it can be seen that the potential for changes after the Proposed Projects are completed is considerable. In fact, these projects are largely about introducing expertise and change management. Therefore, rather than merely producing: a CONOPS; some data and reports from a Capacity Analysis study; and a revised route structure and revised airspace sectorisation, it is better to focus upon the development of local capability for ongoing local (non-aid funded) projects - to continue where the IndII-sponsored projects leave-off. Development of capability is also desirable from the point of view of the local stakeholders, both on a personal and organizational level. Because of this the local agencies should more readily and easily take ownership of the project products. It is also desirable from the funding agencies point of view in that it limits the funding required for each project but gives greater ongoing benefit. The SOWs for these projects have been developed around this approach. With the orientation of the projects directed towards the development of capability, there are a number of additional phases in each of the projects (except the CONOPS project): inducting and, possibly initially educating, some of the local staff; developing Standard Operating Procedures for various phases of the project; education or mentoring concerning change and risk management, development of safety cases and, possibly, regulatory approval processes; implementation planning (although this might be included anyway); and project hand over. Some of the necessary labour resources for the more labour intensive parts of the project, which do exist in both the Capacity Analysis and the Re-sectorisation projects, should come from local staff. This should offset some of the work in the additional phases. It is in the consultants interest to make sure that this happens Inclusion of the Approach in the SOWs Example project phasing and suggested deliverables are provided in each of the Scopes of Work. These are provided only because it is a convenient means of describing the detailed requirements and outcomes of the developing capability approach. This 35

52 provides management within the local agencies with a better understanding of the projects and should allow them to better manage their resourcing for the projects. It is expected that consultants tendering for the project might suggest alternate phasing and deliverables but such alternatives should provide similar outcomes. 5.3 PROJECT ORDER, RESOURCES AND TIMEFRAME The interdependencies, requisite ordering and the urgency of the Proposed Projects are outlined in the table below. Table 13: Project Prioritisation Project Concept of Operations Capacity Analysis Estimated Effort Required & Timeframe Effort required is estimated to be 9 person months plus some time for a local consultant and project management. The elapsed time for the project would be 4-6 months. Effort required is estimated to be 11 person months plus some time for a local consultant and project management. The elapsed time for the project is estimated to be no less than 6 months. Ordering, Urgency and Comments This project is not dependent on either of the other projects. This project is urgently required for the orderly development of operations within the new ANSP. This project is required for the Re-sectorisation project. Urgency for this project also derives from the fact that it needs to be completed before the Re-sectorisation Project. This project is not dependent upon either of the other two Proposed Projects. This project is required for the Re-sectorisation Project. The urgency for this project derives from the fact that it needs to be completed before the Re-sectorisation Project. This project has a high degree of acceptance (more than the others because it includes the provision of software) and should bolster confidence in the other Proposed Projects if properly implemented. After the perceived failure of the IndII-sponsored ATM Masterplan this might be necessary in some quarters). 36

53 CHAPTER 5: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION Project Re-sectorisation Estimated Effort Required & Timeframe Effort required is estimated to be 18 person months plus some time for a local consultant and project management. The elapsed time for the project is estimated to be no less than 9-12 months; Ordering, Urgency and Comments This project is dependent on both the other projects which must be complete before this project can start because the CONOPS will define some of the standards to be used and the Capacity Analysis results are required as a starting point. Capacity Analysis will also be required throughout the project. This project is urgent because its outcomes can improve safety. Since it is felt that safety is comprised at present it has a high level of urgency. Because the other two projects are required for this project they inherit the urgency of this project. The timeframe depends somewhat on proposals provided by potential consultants. 5.4 ESTIMATED RESOURCES AND COST A summary of estimated resources and costs is shown in the following table. The costs are based upon IndII standard rates for consultants; travel (assumed to be travel to/from Australia); accommodation; and per diem allowances. Included are allowances for: a part-time Indonesian aviation consultant who has appropriate local knowledge; a full-time Indonesian administrative assistant; project management part-time project management; and an allowance for management overhead. Project Projected Costs Experience of Resources Concept of Operations Estimated costs are AU$365,000 Costs are calculated based on: 1 part time project manager; 2 consultants (average); 1 part time local consultant; 1 admin assistant; per diems + travel + management overhead Project Manager experience with aviation agencies and project management experience Two or more consultants with experience developing CONOPS for ATM systems more than two experts may be required depending on subject matter areas of consultants One local consultant with experience with and knowledge of the local agencies, ATM systems, airlines, etc 37

54 Project Projected Costs Experience of Resources Capacity Analysis Re-sectorisation Estimated costs are AU$445,000 Software Cost estimated at AU$250,000 + AU$30,000 for software training no travel is included with the training Costs are calculated based on: 1 part time project manager; 1 consultants; 1 junior consultant (for a data gathering and input); 1 part time local consultant; 1 admin assistant; per diems + travel + management overhead Estimated costs are AU$660,000 Costs are calculated based on: 1 part time project manager; 2 consultants (average); 1 part time local consultant; 1 admin assistant; per diems + travel + management overhead Project Manager experience with aviation agencies and project management experience One senior consultants (with back up by one junior consultant) with experience in airspace and aerodrome FTS One local consultant with experience with and knowledge of the local agencies, ATM systems, airlines, etc for part-time involvement during various phases of the project Project Manager experience with aviation agencies and project management experience Two senior consultants with experience in air route and airspace design One local consultant with experience with and knowledge of the local agencies, ATM systems, airlines, etc for part-time involvement during various phases of the project 38

55 CHAPTER 6: METRICS & KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS CHAPTER 6: METRICS & KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 6.1 INTRODUCTION Metrics to be used as design constraints as part of any resectorisation works are most likely to be agreed following completion of capacity analysis, whilst also taking into account the constraints and opportunities associated with ATC facilities and resources. With regard to analysis of total Air Traffic Management (ATM) system capacity, there are three generic methods of assessing airspace and facility capacity: Simple Allocation (Static) Model Fast Time Simulation (FTS) Derived Functional Model This section discusses the measurement of ATM system performance using methods other than Fast Time Simulation (FTS) 3 because FTS is proposed as the method to be used for the Capacity Analysis project itself. The rationale for providing an overview of more simple, alternate methods to provide information to the DGCA and the ANSP organisations on methods that may be used by them in the intervening period (prior to commencement and completion of the proposed Resectorisation project). The discussion focuses upon two different approaches, used for different purposes, for measuring the performance of an ATM system. These are: Metrics that can be derived using deductive methods or algorithms; generally, these can be used to estimate the capacity of routes and/or airspace. Several methods are briefly referenced and one, that seems to offer potential because of its simplicity, is discussed in some detail. A detailed example is provided for this method; and A set of Key Performance Indicators that can be used to monitor the performance of the ATM arrangements (routes, sectors and ATC procedures) in terms of common performance characteristics. The first of these approaches is appropriate as a tool for technical analysis to be used in airspace or air route studies. This focuses on simple measurement of ATC procedures and the physical properties of the airspace and it ignores many other factors. The subject of the second approach is a set of measures of aspects of system performance that taken together, and used over time, can be used as a management tool. These 3 Tools that might be used for Fast Time Simulation (FTS) are not considered in any detail in this report. This topic is covered in some detail in a separate report (Briefing Paper: Airspace Capacity Assessment Methods and Tools) produced as part of Project #

56 provide management with an indication of overall performance hiding many of the underlying variables and details. The relationship between these two approaches is obvious: some of the performance indicators directly reference capacity, which can be approximated using one of the deductive methods. There is also an obvious relationship between deductive methods and FTS as they are both attempting to measure or infer the same parameter sector or route capacity using vastly different methods. 6.2 BACKGROUND While movement statistics are maintained by both FIRs there is no sophisticated analysis of this data; both Jakarta and Makassar centres record total movements and hourly numbers of sector and aerodrome movements. While obtaining this data has proved to be problematic, sufficient cross sectional data has been obtained for the development of a SOW. While these statistics are not directly useful in FTS or the theoretical analysis (because they include the results of the problems that one is trying to investigate) they might be useful as input for the Key Performance Indicators. There is no experience of FTS in Indonesia; however, some simple (internally developed) metrics have been used as a means of assessing sector capacity when undertaking studies for proposed re-sectorisation. There is also no experience or training in the development and implementation of measurement of performance using Key Performance Indicators. There is the capability to measure actual performance; for example, sector performance can be measured in part by the numbers of aircraft within the sector at any one time and over a given hour but at present these are not necessarily measured against any particular benchmark. Hence, what is required are metrics and standards that can be used to assess results and monitor performance over time. These will provide a basis for answering the question: Is 35 aircraft in an ATC sector acceptable at any given time? Some ATC staff have expressed a desire to gain experience and knowledge in capacity and performance analysis. Because they are often inordinately busy they understand that the system is overloaded and they are searching for some resolution. Some of the operational staff and management believe that the EJAATS system, a Flow Control system and a re-sectorisation will solve these problems. There is, however, an understanding that the benefits of each of these changes need to be validated; explaining the desire for the tools and experience to model the demand and capacity. 6.3 CAPACITY DETERMINATION USING ANALYSIS METHODS There are various means of calculating theoretical capacity from ATC workload. Some examples are described below. 40

57 CHAPTER 6: METRICS & KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ICAO Sector Capacity measurement can be based on the DORA TASK or the MBB methods. These are referred to in the Air Traffic Services Planning Manual (Doc 9426), Appendix C. DORA TASK relies on FTS whilst MBB requires many inputs and complex mathematical computations. FAA - Sector capacity is defined as the optimum number of flights in a given sector, over a specified period of time, which can be managed safely and efficiently. This method uses the following algorithm: o For each 15 minute period, determine the average sector flight time, in minutes by observing the number of flights in a sector in a 15 minute period. o Add the number of minutes each flight spends in the sector and divide that by the number of flights during this period o Multiply the average sector flight time in minutes by 60 seconds to get the average sector flight time in seconds o Divide the average sector flight time in seconds by 36 seconds. This 36 seconds is a value established for use in the United States by human factor experts and represents the average time a controller interacts with a flight while in a sector 6.4 CALCULATING A METRIC USING DEDUCTIVE METHODS A deductive methodology, utilising performance measures, can also be used to identify airspace problems. This is not as data-intensive as developing and validating a model for a large simulation. A deductive method is described below. Brazil This is a deductive method developed, in Brazil, for use locally, and also submitted to ICAO SAM region for adoption in the region 4. The number of aircraft that can be controlled simultaneously by a single controller (N referred to below as ATC capacity) in a given sector is estimated using the following formula: N = φ δ (η τm νm) -1 The variables in this equation are as follows: φ : The controller availability factor, defined as the percentage of time available for planning aircraft separation procedures. δ: Average distance flown by aircraft in the sector, which is a function of the paths and en route or terminal procedures established for each sector. 4 Methodology to estimate airport and ATC Sector capacity ICAO SAM refer rt%20and%20atc%20sector%20capacity%20eng.pdf 41

58 η: Number of communications for each aircraft in the sector, which should be limited to the least possible number required for an understanding between the pilot and the controller. This number can be minimised by issuing a complete clearance sufficiently in advance for flight planning. τm: νm: Duration of each message. This factor can be minimised by issuing messages objectively, without long explanations that are detrimental for an understanding between the pilot and the controller. Speed of aircraft in the sector. If δ and νm are replaced with the average flight time of the aircraft in the sector (T), this formula can be replaced with a simpler version: N = φ T (η τm) -1 The values of factors φ, T, η and τm can be obtained empirically. For example, we can consider T= 12 minutes, τm = 9 seconds, φ = 60%, η = 6, which gives a number of aircraft N = 8 simultaneously controlled by the controller in the given sector. In other words, in this sector and under these conditions, a controller would be expected to simultaneously control a maximum of 8 aircraft. This methodology might be used as a starting point for any simulation exercise for the following reasons: The model can be used in any circumstance to measure capacity. It has been published as a result of an ICAO project so it should be reliable. It is a low cost methodology that does not require any software. It does not require constant values derived from databases. Practical experience on the use of the model can be acquired immediately, resulting in the creation of a standard database for statistical purposes. Supports the requirements of a Flow Control system. However, care should be taken in using it as it can give inconsistent results. In the above example: o If one considers a 12 minute period in which the demand is at maximum capacity for the whole of the period (that is, as one aircraft leaves the airspace as another enters unlikely but it avoids complications in the calculations) o Each aircraft requires 54 seconds of communication (τm = 9 seconds x η = 6) so 7.2 minutes are required for communication; hence o Sixty percent of the 12 minute period is required for communication so there can t have been 6 0 percent available for planning 42

59 CHAPTER 6: METRICS & KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Note also an apparent discrepancy: simply rearranging the formula gives the following: N (η τm) T -1 = φ The left hand side is the percentage of total time communicating with all aircraft. However, the ICAO study team defined φ to be the percentage of time available for planning. 6.5 APPLICATION OF THE BRAZILIAN MODEL TO AN INDONESIAN SECTOR This demonstrates the application of the above methodology to busy Indonesian ATC sector with some sample data taken from AP II. This is an example only and a full analysis would need to be conducted complete with some form of sensitivity analysis; however it does serve to show the order of magnitude of the issue. To simplify the calculation it will refer to Upper Semarang Class A airspace within Jakarta FIR along the routes of W16 and W45 (refer to Figure 18 below Profile of Upper Semarang (US) sector) which is considered one of the busiest route in Asia. (Other considerations are: there is generally good surveillance and VHF coverage; appropriate ATC automation within JAATS; and high reliability of ground-to-ground coordination communication between Jakarta and Ujung Pandang Centres.) The same formula to calculate sector capacity will be: N = φ T (η τm) -1 Figure 18: Profile of Upper Semarang (US) Sector Source: AP II 43