7 NOVEMBER 2016 RESTAURANT SHALIMAR

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1 István György Tóth The Hungarian Social Report 2016 History, concepts and findings HIPA PRESS COFFEE on SOCIAL REPORT NOVEMBER 2016 RESTAURANT SHALIMAR

2 The Hungarian Social Report Series

3 I. Economic developments Contents 1. Wage convergence potentials and limits (Palócz Éva) 2. Corruption risks, transparency, public procurements (Tóth István János Hajdu Miklós) 3. Employment change since 2008 in Hungary (Scharle Ágota) II. Social structure 4. Middle classes in Hungary and in Europe (Tóth István György) 5. Wealth distribution in Hungary (Kolosi Tamás Fábián Zoltán) 6. Burgerschaft (Sik Endre Szeitl Blanka) 7. Material deprivation trends (Gábos András Tátrai Annamária B. Kis Anna Szivós Péter) 8. Consistent poverty in EU members and in Hungary (B. Kis Anna Gábos András) III. Household behaviour during and after the crisis 9. Savings and debts of households, (Medgyesi Márton) 10. Consumption (Simonovits Bori Szivós Péter) 11. Work intensity during the crisis and the recovery (Branyiczki Réka)

4 IV. International migration, refugee situation 12. Emmigration, immigration and the Hungarian labour market (Hárs Ágnes) 13. European regugee crisis: the special case of Hungary in it (Juhász Attila Molnár Csaba) 14. Emergence of new form of help and solidarity: old and new voluntary organizations (Bernát Anikó Kertész Anna Tóth Fruzsina Márta) V. Institutions, welfare state 15. Schools run by the state, the local governmnets, the churches and foundations (Hermann Zoltán Varga Júlia) 16. Health status, health inequality, international comparisons (Orosz Éva Kollányi Zsófia) 17. Age profile and territorial distribution of services and users (Goldmann Róbert Gyetvai Gellért Mester Dániel) 18. Quality of life of disabled people in Hungary experiences at the start of de-institutionalization (Kopasz Marianna Bernát Anikó Kozma Ágnes Simonovits Bori) VI. Values and attitudes 19. Work values in the world ( ) and in Hungary (Hajdu Gábor Sik Endre) 20. Attitudes towards refugees and migration policies (Simonovits Bori Szeitl Blanka

5 Kolosi, Tamás and Tóth, István György: Editorial introduction Context: Improving macro statistics worsening public mood as freedom fight continues Aggressive communication campaign undiscussed themes Social report: aims balanced evulation, data driven presentations Main messages: Poor rich Narrow middle class Declining but still large deprivation rates Health and education inequalities, Inefficient institutions, lacking reforms Corruption in public procurements Overall: what ambitions with Europe: to reach or to teach?

6 Findings on economic structure - Labour markets: improving, but - outward migration - public works - Dual economy drawbacks - Efficient multinationals - Weak national industry actors - Explicit corruption and weak competiton in public procurements - despite new legislation, measures show increased corruption, weakened competition - EU funds distribution seems more infected

7 Findings on social structure - Income and wealth inequality is at a relatively modest level, but - average is at low level (GDP) - narrow and weak middle class - large deprived segment of the society (underclass?) - Health inequality by education is large - Intergenerational transmission of disadvantage is strong - (Are the above signaling badly functioning institutions?)

8 Wealth distribution in Hungary, 2015 estimate Wealth strata Wealthless (below HUF 7m cca 23K ) Global middle strata (between 23 and 230K ) % of households 50% 45% Wealthy (above 230K ) 5% Within which: 230K cca 500K 4,4% cca 500 K 1 m 0,3% 1m - 10 m 0,3% 10 m households Source: Kolosi and Fábián, 2016.

9 Relative size of the various income classes, in % of median equivalent household disposable incomes, Hungary, Panel A: share of people in various income classes Panel B: share of income classes from total incomes Source: Tóth, 2016 Note: income classes defined in % of median of equivalent household income. Source: 1987: HCSO Income Survey; 1992, 1996: Hungarian Household Panel; : Tárki Household Monitor.

10 RO BG LV LT HR HU EE PL SK EL CZ PT ES SI MT IT IE BE FI DK UK SE NL DE CY FR AT LU Average incomes of various income bands (EUR at PPS), EU28, 2011 income year Source: Tóth, 2016, calculations based on Cross sectional EU SILC 2014, UDB August Social Situation Monitor, ttp://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catid=1049&langid=en upper middle core middle lower middle Definition of ranges: upper middle: from avg of 7 th dec. to avg of 10 th dec. middle: from avg of 4 th dec. to avg of 7 th dec. lower middle: from avg of 2 nd dec. to avg. of 4 th dec.

11 lack of at least four items lack of three middle class must items All in all: the problem is that bottom 60% of the HU social structure is below the extended definition of a middle class Prevalence of various deprivation items in various income brackets, total inability to meet unexpected expenses problem going on a week holiday arrears (utility, morgage, etc) not having meat every other day not keep home adequatly warm enforced lack: washing machine colour tv telephone use of car lack of at least three items

12 Prevalence of various deprivation items, inability to meet unexpected expenses problem going on a week holiday arrears (utility, morgage, etc) not having meat every other day not keep home adequatly warm enforced lack: washing machine colour tv telephone use of car lack of at least three items lack of at least four items

13 Life expecting improved in HU but, unfavourable comparisons to the situation at around 1990 and to level of GDP Life expectancy at 40 yrs of age, males Life expectancy at 40 yrs of age and GDP, in EU, 1995 and 2013 Source: Orosz, 2016

14 Large and increasing health inequality Life expectancy at 40 yrs of age, males, by education, éves korban várható élettartam nem és iskolázottság szerint Life expectancy at 30 yrs of age, males, by gender and education, various years Source: Orosz, 2016

15 Various health-related indicators, HU, relative to other Visegrad countries Hungary Czech Republic Poland Slovakia (EU14* avg = 1) Mortality - all causes 1,52 1,29 1,32 1,45 Early deaths 1,88 1,31 1,87 1,93 Lost years (prevention 2,10 1,51 1,48 1,86 inefficiency) Lost years (curative 2,52 1,81 1,72 2,44 inefficiency Per cap health expenditure (public) 0,37 0,58 0,36 0,50 */ EU 15 except Luxemburg

16 Some concluding remarks The Hungarian Social report seems to be back on track (at least in 2016 ) The two recent civic editions (with no state support) prove the demand for it The massive reception also shows the hunger for independent, evidence based evaluations of social trends and societal policies - social reporting IS part of democratic infrastructure

Poverty and Social Exclusion in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European Member States. Michael Knogler

Poverty and Social Exclusion in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European Member States. Michael Knogler Department of Economics Policy Issues No. May 1 Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung Landshuter Straße, D-937 Regensburg Telefon: ++9 (9 1) 93 5-1 E-Mail: info@ios-regensburg.de Internet: www.ios-regensburg.de