The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Lebanon s Economy

Transcription

1 The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Lebanon s Economy Wael Mansour, Ph.D July 4, 213 Crowne Plaza Hotel, Beirut.

2 The Syrian Conflict - An Economic Challenge for Lebanon Negative net impact: key channels security and uncertainty => heart of Lebanon s social fabric. Hardship for hosting communities, social tensions, confidence erosion and macroeconomic instability. Beyond humanitarian crisis => economic & development challenge Policy response and Donor assistance to limit downside risk. LbnEM: highlights the economic impact & areas of engagement.

3 Overall Growth Impact - Negative Exposes & amplifies the internal weaknesses of the LB economy Y: slowdown in Economic activity (growth 1.4% in 212 ). C: drop in consumer confidence mostly due to security spillover. I: investment drop due to uncertainty regarding final demand. G: government consumption positive, uncertain scale & growing NX: net exports negative pressures from Syrian crisis.

4 Net Exports: disruption to key trade routes Exports: transit routes closed, partial benefits in Syria markets Imports: drop in goods crossing the Syrian borders. Lebanese Exports (% GDP) Lebanese Imports (% GDP) To Syria Transiting through Syria Total From Syria Transiting through Syria Total Source: Lebanese Customs and World Bank Staff Calculations.

5 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 LEBANON ECONOMIC MONITOR: GROWING TENSIONS IN A RESILIENT ECONOMY, Spring 213 Tourism: the most impacted sector Losses:.5 percent of GDP in 212. Continued losses in 213. Partial offset from consumption of resident Syrians. Tourism Spending and Hotel Occupancy Rates (%) Tourist Arrivals and Hotel Occupancy Rates (3mma SA %) Political Instability E211P212-4 Tourists Spending / GDP Average Hotel Occupancy Rate Tourist Arrivals (y.o.y change) Hotel Occupancy Rate Source: National Accounts, Ministry of Tourism, World Bank Staff Calculations.

6 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov LEBANON ECONOMIC MONITOR: GROWING TENSIONS IN A RESILIENT ECONOMY, Spring 213 Wage pressures & inflation disproportionally hit the vulnerable & poor Labor market: increase in supply of Labor puts downward pressure on wages. Domestic Prices: pressures from (i) rise in Syrian consumption in Lebanon, (ii) imports substitution, (iii) increase demand on and inelastic housing supply. Real Estate: partially contained the drop sector activities. One shot gain. Headline and Core Inflation Rates (y.o.y % change, 3mma sa) Real Estate Fees (% of GDP) US: core inflation rate Lebanon: headline inflation rate Lebanon: core inflation rate Fees from Lebanese Fees from Foreigners Source: Central Administration of Statistics, CRI, World Bank Staff Calculations. Source: Lebanese Cadastre, Ministry of Finance, World Bank Staff Calculations.

7 Fiscal Costs are expected to grow rapidly New appeal by Lebanon: US$1.7 billion. Direct Effect: rise in current spending to provide services, uncertain scale. pressure on public service delivery. Deterioration in pressure on infrastructure. sector outcomes Indirect Effects: revenues drop from slowdown in economy outweighs positive VAT and customs receipts. increase in financing cost as sovereign risk premium rise.

8 Banking Sector: resilient despite large shock Direct Effect: 7 banks operate in Syria (22% of total market share and 6% of private banks share). Banks assets in Syrian branches are estimated at US$ 2 bln. BdL estimates losses at US$4 mln (.27% of total assets). Positive MLT outlook for Lebanese banks in Syria. Indirect Effect: Slower demand for credit and stronger provisions affects profitability. Lebanese banks asset portfolios remain stable and well-diversified.

9 THANK YOU