Water usage from a long-term perspective: dependence on natural water has decoupled in Spain.

Transcription

1 Water usage from a long-term perspective: dependence on natural water has decoupled in Spain. Jessie Heemskerk, 2014 This dissertation is submitted as part of a MSc degree in Water: Science and Governance at King s College London Student card number [ ]

2 KING S COLLEGE LONDON UNIVERSITY OF LONDON DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY MSc DISSERTATION I, Jessie Heemskerk hereby declare (a) that this Dissertation is my own original work and that all source material used is acknowledged therein; (b) that it has been specially prepared for a degree of the University of London; and (c) that it does not contain any material that has been or will be submitted to the Examiners of this or any other university, or any material that has been or will be submitted for any other examination. This Dissertation is 9393 words. Signed:... Date: 12 September II

3 Abstract Spain is the most arid country in Europe. Coupled with a strong growth in the demand of natural water, Spain s economic and social security is impeded by local water scarcity. This research provides a long-term analysis of total water consumption, which is defined as the sum of virtual water flows, desalination, reuse and natural water abstraction. The purpose of the study is to identify the political processes and regulations associated with Spain s engagement with its increasing demand for water. The study shows that there has been a strong increase in virtual water usage, which decoupled Spain s growth in water needs from its abstraction of water from the natural environment. Regional natural water deficits were resolved via increasing reclamation of wastewater and desalination. It is shown that the decoupling model of Gilmont applies to Spain; the country experienced the same generic processes as other semi-arid political economies Keywords: Decoupling, Spain, Virtual Water III

4 List of Contents Abstract... III List of Tables... V List of Figures... V List of Abbreviations... VI Acknowledgements... VII 1. Introduction Literature Review Natural Resource Decoupling Methodologies for quantifying water use Methodological Approaches Natural Water Decoupling Calculating Virtual Water Decoupling Data Collection and Limitations Spain as a case study for decoupling Decoupling water usage in Spain Virtual water decoupling Natural Water Decoupling Desalination Conclusions Appendix I: Ethics Screening Form and Risk Assessment Form Appendix II: Virtual Water Flow Calculation Appendix III: Green and Blue Water in Spain Appendix IV: Natural Water Usage List of References IV

5 List of Tables Table 1: Comparison of different sources of virtual water flows 22 List of Figures Figure 1: The intersection of Natural Water Decoupling in the literature 4 Figure 2: UNEP s perspective of Resource and Impact Decoupling 6 Figure 3: Conceptual model of natural water decoupling 9 Figure 4: Average Annual Run-Off per Basin 16 Figure 5: The Decoupling of Natural Water in Spain 17 Figure 6a: Virtual water flows of crops and animal products 23 Figure 6b: Virtual water flows of crop products 24 Figure 6c: Virtual water flows of animal products 24 Figure 7a: Long-term analysis of volumes of desalination 25 Figure 7b: Desalinated Water per sector 1985 to Figure 8: Trends of volumes of reclaimed wastewater 29 V

6 List of Abbreviations AQUA CAP CEDEX CV EEC ED EU GDP MAMRM Mm 3 MSF NVW OECD OEEC OI SNHP UNEP VW E VW I WBCSD WF E Water Policy of 2004 (Gestión y la Utilización del Agua) Common Agricultural Policy Spanish Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Vapour Compression European Economic Community Electro-Dialysis European Union Gross Domestic Product Spanish Ministry of Agriculture Million cubic metre Multi-Stage Flash Net Virtual Water Flows Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organisation for European Economic Co-operation Reverse Osmosis National Hydrological Plan United Nations Environment Programme Virtual Water Exports Virtual Water Imports World Business Council for Sustainable Development External Water Footprint VI

7 Acknowledgements I would like to express my special thanks to Professor Tony Allan and Dr. Michael Gilmont for their generous guidance, patience and on-going encouragement. I would like to thank Professor Alberto Garrido for sharing his vast knowledge on Spanish water policy. I thank dr. Elena López-Gunn for the kind visit and all the great advice she gave me on finding the right literature. To dr. Ashok Chapagain, for explaining how to calculate the Water Footprint and showing me where I could find the right data. I also thank my colleagues, for their peerreview and constructive criticism. My parents, Pepijn, and friends for their support in all forms and shapes. VII

8 Water usage from a long-term perspective: dependence on natural water has decoupled in Spain. 1. Introduction This dissertation will analyse the extent to which the trend in natural water usage has been decoupled from the trend in total water consumption in Spain for the period 1960 to the present. The decoupling framework is a long-term analysis of the total water consumption. This approach can be used to understand how political paradigms and regulations emerge to cope with challenges - such as those of Spain concerning its increasing demand for water. Two main forms of decoupling have been identified in other semi-arid political economies. The first is virtual water decoupling, where the pressure on internal water resources is reduced through importing water embedded in goods and commodities. The second is natural water decoupling, in which the total water supply is increased through reclaimed wastewater and desalination (Gilmont, 2014). Having an understanding of how water consumption patterns relate to economic growth and water scarcity is vital as it enables society to intervene on the basis of evidence to develop effective management policies (Rijsberman, 2006). The attention of conventional water planning is on blue water; also referred to as natural water in this dissertation. Blue water is water in surface flows (streams, rivers), surface storage (aquifers, lakes, dams), and in non-saline inland seas (Allan, 2001). However, the principal water consuming activity of humans is agricultural production, which depends largely on green water. Green water is precipitation that is stored as moisture in the unsaturated zone or temporarily stays on top of vegetation. A share of the precipitation does not run off or recharges the groundwater, but is stored in the soil as moisture or temporarily stays on top of the plant canopy or soil. Eventually, green water is evaporated or transpires through plants. Thus, green water resource is the evaporation and transpiration consumptive water usage of biomass, and is moisture in the unsaturated zone (Falkenmark and Rockström, 2006, p.129). Green water cannot be re-allocated, whereas blue water can also be used for industrial or urban consumption. Blue water can easily get overexploited, which has negative impact on the environment (Yang et al., 2007). Therefore, both green and blue water consumption patterns in Spain are examined. 1

9 Over the past century, global water consumption has expanded quickly: during the twentieth century water usage increased six fold, whereas the world population only tripled (Andelman and Pauker, 2009). The current demand has created a situation in which water scarcity exists locally: 1.2 billion people are lacking access to safe and affordable water. Globally groundwater levels are dropping, and basins are becoming increasingly polluted (Gleick et al., 2006; Cosgrove and Rijsberman, 2000). The future of this trend is not clear. However, the world population is growing, diets are changing, and it is probable that rapid urbanisation and industrialisation will continue. Nonetheless, multiple renowned studies see an increasing water scarcity as one of the major risks for our future (World Economic Forum, 2014; McKinsey, 2009). For example, to eradicate hunger by 2030 an extra water requirement of 4,200 km 3 /year is necessary. If this volume is accounted for by irrigation only, this would lead to a doubling of the blue water abstraction causing high levels of depletion of rivers and aquatic ecosystems (Falkenmark and Rockström, 2006) A limited supply of natural water, coupled with a strong growth in demand, restricts human capacity to grow and develop (Duarte et al. 2014a). Water is a pivotal resource for many aspects of human prosperity: energy and industrial production, agriculture and human health are all dependent on the availability of water (UNEP, 2012). Traditionally, economic growth or the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services is coupled to an increased usage of natural resources. However, about 25% less material input was needed to produce one unit of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2002 compared to 1980 (UNEP, 2012). This relationship between economic and resource growth illustrates the power of decoupling. It demonstrates the opportunity for growth to occur without a corresponding increase in pressure on natural resources Gleick (2002) has argued that the connection between water and economic growth can also be decoupled. In the United States, the blue water abstraction rose ten fold between 1900 and 1980, whereas the GDP rose by a factor of 20. However, by 1995 the levels of blue water consumption dropped significantly and were back at the level of Some of this decrease can be explained by technological developments. For example, steel production consumed about 250 tonnes of water per tonne steel during the 1930s, whereas today s production plants usage levels dropped to 3.5 tonnes of water per tonne steel (Gleick, 2002). 2

10 Using the framework of Gilmont (2014), this dissertation will research the extent of decoupling between the trend of natural water usage from the trend of total water consumption in Spain. Spain is chosen as a case study because of its specific climatic conditions: it is one of the most arid countries of the European Union, and faces water problems in many of its regions (Garrido and Llamas, 2010). No other study has yet applied the decoupling framework to Spain, which makes this research original. In addition, Spain is a relatively data rich country with multiple detailed data sources available on water abstraction facilitating analysis. The timeframe of the analysis is constrained by data availability, and spans the period from the 1960s to the present. In this study the following questions will be addressed: (i) what are the preferred methods for quantifying natural water decoupling, and can they be effectively deployed?; (ii) has virtual water and natural water decoupling occurred in Spain?; and (iii) are the trends in water usage in Spain linked to changes in its political economy? The structure of this study is as follows: Chapter Two provides a literature review, and places the framework of decoupling in the wider context of resource decoupling research and studies on water scarcity. Chapter Three presents and critiques the methods and data used. Chapter Four discusses the results of the analysis and reviews them. Chapter Five provides concluding comments. 3

11 2. Literature Review This chapter will provide hydrological, technological, and political economy contexts by placing natural water decoupling within the broader literature. The decoupling method as used in this dissertation operates at the interface of two different fields (see Figure 1). On the one hand, there is a growing literature on resource decoupling, especially of international strategic public policy documents. On the other hand, natural water decoupling builds upon methodologies for quantifying water usage, such as the water footprint analysis. In the following order, this chapter will address natural resource decoupling literature, then methodologies for quantifying water usage. The last part will discuss the relevance of natural resource decoupling. Gilmont s (2014) model enriches the literature as it creates understanding of how political paradigms are connected to differentiations in a country s total water consumption over time. Figure 1: The intersection of Natural Water Decoupling in the literature. Source: Own elaboration. 4

12 2.1 Natural Resource Decoupling Natural Resource Decoupling is an analytical approach that identifies the quantity of resource inputs - such as water and minerals - into productive activities such as food production, manufacturing, and service provision. It analyses the extent to which economic development, environmental degradation, and resource depletion are connected, and how this link can be broken (European Environment Agency, 2012). Since 2000, the term natural resource decoupling has gained currency, and has been used in studies of international strategic public policy. It is an integral part of the Europe 2020 environmental goals (European Environment Agency, 2012), the UNEP Green Economy Initiative (Fischer-Kowalski et al., 2011) and the OECD environmental Strategy for the First Decade of the 21st Century (OECD, 2001). The European Environment Agency (2012) for example, defined this concept as breaking the link between environmental bads and economic goods. This definition clearly shows the underlying normative belief: the optimum is to increase economic growth while lowering environmental depletion. Logically, the ontological presumptions of decoupling are (a) that there is a connection between resource usage and economic growth and (b) that it is its pursuit to break, understand, or alter this connection. The literature based on these ontological presumptions is growing, and Gilmont s (2014) model shares this line of reasoning. The idea of disconnecting resource usage from economic growth is not a new notion, according to UNEP (2011) it started to develop during the early 1990s. Concepts like decoupling can be identified under the terminology of eco-efficiency in reports of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and the EU s Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Jobs (Fischer-Kowalski et al., 2011). Next to these international strategic public policy documents, the academic literature on specific resources has also evolved. There is extensive literature on how economic growth has modified or is related to natural resources. The main focus is the linkage between energy consumption and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Stern, 2011; Kander and Lindmark, 2004; Mielnika and Goldemberg, 2002; Jorgsen and Clarck, 2012). In addition, a well-developed research area is carbon dioxide emission (Zhang, 2000 and Lu et al., 2007). 5

13 UNEP (2011) has completed a comprehensive work on resource decoupling, where decoupling is defined as: using less resources per unit of economic output and reducing the environmental impact of any resources that are used or economic activities that are undertaken (Fischer-Kowalski, 2011, p. xiii). Figure 2 displays all the essential elements identified by UNEP. However, this approach is not fully applicable to water resources. Impact decoupling is hard to measure for water, as water is too dynamic. For example, the environmental impact of water usage can be transferred via virtual water and recycling (Gilmont, 2014). Next to this, an important problem occurs when taking GDP as an indicator of economic growth. In the most classical form, GDP is determined by the output of the factors of production of land, natural resources, labour, and capital. In our current economy, water resources only play a minor contribution to the formation of the GDP. For example, the agricultural sector uses all the green water and most of the blue water, while it pays the lowest price (Allan, 1999). Therefore GDP cannot be seen as a proxy for economic growth within the decoupling model. Figure 2: UNEP s perspective of Resource and Impact Decoupling. Source: Fischer-Kowalski et al., 2011, p xiii. 6

14 2.2 Methodologies for quantifying water use Water as a resource is very dynamic, it has large temporal, spatial, and quality variances, and this impacts its value to people and the ecosystem (Rijsberman, 2006). To take Central India as an example: during the monsoon period between June and September there is abundance of water that can have devastating consequences such as floods. On the same location, during the summer period, which is between March and May, a drought may occur of a magnitude that can ruin entire crop productions. These peaks are not always represented in data such as the annual water availability. Therefore, other methods are needed to display the reality of water shortage or abundance (Rijsberman, 2006). Over the past thirty years many different methods are developed to measure water usage and to determine if it is under stress (Brown and Matlock, 2011). But how exactly can water scarcity be defined? This concept is contested. Currently, there is no consensus in the literature on how to define water scarcity (White, 2012). For the purpose of this dissertation the UN definition will be used: The point at which the aggregate impact of all users impinges on the supply or quality of water under prevailing institutional arrangements to the extent that the demand by all sectors, including the environment, cannot be satisfied fully (Cosgrove and Cosgrove, 2012). One of the earlier and widely used works to measure water stress is the Falkenmark Indicator, also known as the Water Scarcity Index (Falkenmark, 1989). It categorises per capita usage from no stress (> 1,700 m 3 ) to absolute scarcity (<500 m 3 ) based upon national annual averages. Even though this method is still used by the media, its validity is questioned in academic literature questions as it does not account for variation in human demand due to different lifestyle, nor does the national annual averages account for seasonal differences (White, 2012). Shiklomanov (1991 and 1993) was the first to separate water abstraction into agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors. This division gives a good insight in the differences in quantities, as roughly 70% of the freshwater withdrawals are for agricultural usage (Brown and Matlock, 2011). Over time many different water resource vulnerability indices have been developed, of which the model of Vörösmarty et al.,(2005) and Sullivan et al., water poverty index (2003) can be considered as highly impactful (UNEP, 2012 and Rijsberman, 2006). Strengths of the indices named above are that they have incorporated ecological sustainability and geospatial and climate data into their models. However, these 7

15 approaches do not show the changes over time, but only provide a snapshot of the state of the water bodies in that point of time. 2.3 Natural Water Decoupling Little research has focussed on water consumption from a long-term perspective. For Spain Garrido et al. (2010) researched the virtual water flows for the period between 1997 and Recently, Duarte et al. published a series of works which all performed a long-term analysis. They analysed the water footprint of Spanish agriculture between 1860 and 2010 and Spanish virtual water trade between 1849 and 1935 (Duarte et al. 2014b; 2014c). Smith et al. (2011), Gleick (2002) and Gilmont (2014) conceptualised the decoupling for water resources. Smith et al. (2011) examined the practical benefits of decoupling economic growth from freshwater extraction. Gleick (2012) analysed the link between the total water withdrawals and GDP for the United States. Gilmont (2014) developed a framework, and applied it to the case study Israel, making a distinction between decoupling of the rate of water usage from the rate of economic growth and decoupling of the rate of natural water consumption from the total use of natural water available to an economy. An added value of decoupling opposed to the theories described above is that it gives insight in consumption patterns over time. It creates understanding of the usage patterns that have caused scarcity and it incorporates the dependence on virtual water imports (Gilmont, 2014). 8

16 3. Methodological Approaches 3.1 Natural Water Decoupling Figure 3 displays the conceptual of model of water decoupling (Gilmont, 2014). The premise is that semi-arid political economies experience a similar sequence of resource-usage and political paradigms. Allan (2001) developed the five paradigm descriptive model. In the premodern phase water resources are not regulated centrally and used locally. The hydraulic mission is the start of a centralised management of water. Engineers govern water and hydraulic works are developed based on the idea that engineering mobilisation of water benefits economic growth. The practice of this paradigm is characterised by large hydraulic projects and environmental problems are not a concern. This perspective changes when environmental degradation becomes evident; a need to react is the main characteristic of the environmental paradigm. The economic, environmental, and political paradigms are intertwined. Within these approaches, the common factor is to aim for optimum allocation and integrated management. Multiple stakeholders govern water usage, and policies are not merely designed by engineers. Strategies in the reflexive modernity paradigm seek to balance between social, economic, and environmental concerns (Allan 2001 and Gilmont 2012). Figure 3: Displays a conceptual model of natural water decoupling. Source: Adjusted from Gilmont (2014). 9

17 The Natural Water Supply forms the baseline of the analysis. Natural Water is freshwater derived from surface and groundwater and is divided into usage per sector (domestic, industrial and agricultural). It is extracted from environmental sources of surface and groundwater and it is measured in terms of the annual gross amount extracted (Gilmont, 2014). According to UNEP (2012, p20) abstraction means that the water is unavailable for reuse in the same basin or irretrievable, for instance through evapotranspiration or contamination. Which is true in most instances, though, return flows are not always accounted for. As argued in the introduction, population and economic growth involve an increasing requirement of water. In a semi-arid country there comes a time when the local water sources will not be able to meet the demand, the financial and environmental costs will be to high to abstract more water. When a country stops policies targeting food self-sufficiency and starts importing virtual water via crops and products, Virtual Water Decoupling occurs. This is measured with the Water Footprint method of Hoekstra and Chapagain (2008), which is described in section 3.1. Natural Water Decoupling is the process of increasing the real water available by treatment of water that is by nature not suitable for consumption by humans or for agricultural usage and is origins from a new source. In the case of Israel and Spain this new water comes from reclaimed wastewater and desalination (Gilmont, 2014). Reclaimed wastewater is in Spain defined as water that has undergone the wastewater treatment process or a process set out in the corresponding effluent disposal permits to attain the quality to its final intended purpose (Royal Decree 1620, 2007 p2). Desalination is in essence a process whereby seawater and brackish water is converted into a usable water resource, this can be preformed via different techniques as such as reverse osmosis (AEDYR, 2014). Natural Water Decoupling enlarges the Total Water Supply, it can either elevate environmental pressures if the blue water resources are over exploited or meet to growing demand for water. The line Total Water Consumption in figure 3 represents the cumulative natural water supply, reclaimed wastewater, desalinated water and net virtual water flows. This represents the total volume of water consumed in a country at a certain period in time. 10

18 3.2 Calculating Virtual Water Decoupling Tony Allan introduced the term virtual water in 1993 as the volume of water required to produce commodities, goods, and services (Allan 1998 and 1999). International trade transfers commodities between countries. While there is often no physical movement of water, virtual water is re-allocated by trade flows. Virtual water trade can benefit countries to save resources domestically, and creates a global comparative advantage as water is unequally distributed over space and time (Garrido et al., 2010). Closely linked to virtual water is the water footprint. This concept is developed by Hoekstra in 2002, and is defined as total volume of freshwater that is used to produce the goods and services consumed by the individual or the community (Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2004, p8.). The water footprint enables us to understand the true volumes consumed by a person, business, or country as it looks at both the direct, and indirect water used. A large share of the products we consume are produced in other countries. These products require water. Therefore, natural water abstraction alone does not show the total water consumption levels. With the water footprint one can understand how high the real water consumption is. By this, one can assess if a country is dependent on other countries water resources in their total water consumption (Hoekstra et al., 2012). Hence, this method is an important tool to understand the total water consumption. Mekonnen and Hoekstra (2011a and 2011b) published the water footprint coefficient for nearly all crop and animal products, based upon averages for the period Every water footprint coefficient consists out of three different colours ; these are green, blue and grey water. The colours represent that various water components have different characteristics. As shortly discussed in the introduction, green water is water in the biosphere. For the green water coefficients of the water footprint, green water is measured as: the volume of rainwater that is evaporated during the production process (Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2008, p.20). Blue water coefficients represent the volume of surface or groundwater that evaporated as a result of its production (Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2008, p.20). The third colour of water is grey, which is the amount of water needed to dilute pollutants (Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2008, p.20). As this research focuses on quantity, grey water is not relevant and will not be assessed further and only green and blue water are analysed. This research builds on the approach of Hoekstra et al. (2012), and uses the methods presented in the water footprint assessment manual to measure the net virtual water flows of 11

19 Spain. The water footprint of consumption can be calculated with a top-down or bottomapproach. The top-down approach is used by this research as this gives a direct connection with water agriculture and trade policies. In the top-down approach estimates are based upon country averages. Water used to produce imports in the producing country are subtracted by the water used for producing export commodities (Hoekstra et al., 2012). This in contrast to the bottom-up approach, in which all goods and services consumed by a countries inhabitants are multiplied by their water needs at the site of production (Garrido et al., 2010). There are two ways to look at the volume of water consumed outside the country; (a) the external water footprint (WF E, m 3 /year), and (b) net virtual-water flows (NVW, m 3 /year). The external water footprint evaluates the volume of water resources used in other countries by measuring the difference between virtual water imports (VW I ) and virtual water re-exports (VW RE ). (3.1) VW RE is hard to measure in Spain, as virtual water is imported in the form of crops and reexported in the form of livestock. In addition, the data on other re-export is also not available. Therefore, the NVW is used to analyse virtual water decoupling in the main model. This is the difference between virtual-water imports (VW I ) and virtual water exports (VW E ) (3.2) The VW I is calculated as: [ ] (3.3) In which T i [N e,p] represents the imported quantity of product p from exporting nation N e (product units/time) and WF prod [N e,p] the water footprint of product p as in the exporting nation N e (volume/product unit) (Hoekstra et al., 2012, p57) The VW E is calculated as: (3.4) In which T e [p] represent the quantity of product p exported from the nation (in our case Spain) and WF prod [p] the average water footprint of the exported product p (volume/product unit) (Hoekstra et al., 2012, p57). Annex II: Virtual Water Calculation gives access to the data analysis done in this research and describes process and limitation in detail. 12

20 3.2 Data Collection and Limitations The Natural Water Supply data originate from the OECD statistical database (2014) for the period The OECD statistical database is comprised of a broad range of statistics about all the OECD countries. The data is collected at national level. The Spanish abstraction data is divided into fresh surface and fresh ground water abstraction, which is further divided per sector usage. The abstraction figures include water removed from any source both permanently and temporarily and include drainage and mine water. Excluded is water usage for hydroelectric generation. Next to this seawater, brackish swamps, lagoons, and estuaries are not considered surface water (OECD statistical database, 2014). The OECD states that the data account for groundwater abstraction aquifer recharge. However, it is unclear whether this refers to natural recharge or artificial recharge. Surface water abstraction includes all water that flows over, or rest on the surface of a landmass. Thus artificial watercourses such as irrigation canals, drainage systems and artificial reservoirs and rainwater collection are also included (OECD statistical database, 2014, p.1). The data for Spain on the agricultural side only include irrigation before In addition, the total excludes the fishing sector data. (OECD, 2014 a, META DETA). The abstraction levels before 1980 are not as well documented. Shiklomanov (1999) and UNESCO (1999) made assumptions on the abstraction levels based upon different sources, which are used for the period Not all authors agree on the exact data and a distinction is made between withdrawals and consumption. Nevertheless, Shiklomanov (1999) is currently the best available source. Natural Water Decoupling in Spain consists of desalination and wastewater reclamation. In 2007 the Ministry of Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs started to regulate water reuse and to collect the data centrally. Before this data was collected by the river basin organisations (RBOs), and only estimates could be made around that time. In 2005 a large inventory about the reuse practices was done and a management guide was developed. Not all data is publicly available, however there is enough to discover the trends and developments. The reuse activities are specified per region, type of regeneration, and usage. The usage classification is divided into five; irrigation, municipal uses, recreational, industrial, and ecological (Iglesias et al.,2008). Data originates from Iglesias (2008), Iglesias et al. (2010) and Castro (2010). During a visit at the Spanish Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs, the volumes of wastewater reclamation where discussed. The predictions of made in 2005 for 2015 and 2021 are not very likely to be met, which will be discussed in more detail in section The data for desalination is collected via the Spanish 13

21 Desalination and Water Reuse Association and the International Desalination Association (AEDYR, 2014 Alejo, 2008, Graco, 2004). The methodology for the Virtual Water Decoupling follows Hoekstra and Chapagain (2008). The volume of water embodied in crops and animal products is taken from Mekonnen and Hoekstra (2011a, 2011b and 2012). The water demand for crops is quantified by blue, green and grey water and takes the average for the period The data is specified per regions; this research used the country averages (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2011b). Trade data related to crops and animals products are obtained from the international trade database UN-Comtrade and are specified in tonnages. The UN-Comtrade database uses the SITC code to index products. The SITC coding is also used on the PC-Tas cd, which Hoekstra and Chapagain (2008) use in their work. A full overview of the virtual water calculation can be found in Annex II. The coefficients of virtual as determined by Hoekstra and Chapagain (2008) are the average for the period However, the virtual water flows are calculated up It is a limitation of this study that the virtual water coefficients are not recalculated for the period before Due to time and resource restrictions this was not possible. It is logical that the virtual water content of for example a crop or animal products changes over time. Productivity and climates have changed over time. Duarte et al. (2014b) also faced this problem: the study analysed virtual water imports for the period 1849 up to In essence, the virtual water coefficient is based upon evapotranspiration and yields. Duarte et al. (2014b) adapted the coefficients according to Dalin et al. (2012) and Konar et al. (2013). The data is unfortunately not publicly available, nor is it from the same period. Therefore, other studies could not be used to overcome this limitation. In the decoupling model the natural water supply data is blue water, whereas the net virtual water flows consists out of green and blue water. This is a second limitation of this research. There is a volume of green water used for the production of crops and animal products in Spain that is consumed by Spanish inhabitants, which is not accounted for. Thus the natural water supply is higher in reality, nonetheless there is no reliable detailed source to provide these figures. Duarte et al. (2014c) did estimate the green and blue water embodied in Spanish production between 1860 and 2008, see appendix III. 14

22 Water data can be ambiguous and highly politicized. In addition, abstraction always leaves out sources of water such as illegal pumping, leakage, or free users as fire fighters and hospitals. The data used in this research is at no point an exact reflection of the total water consumed in Spain. Nevertheless, the goal is to create insight into macro trends and increase the understanding how water consumption changes over time. The linkage to political reflexivity and management is more important and the data forms an essential supporting basis. 15

23 4. Spain as a case study for decoupling In this chapter the results of the decoupling analysis of Spain are presented. First, a brief introduction into the physical, demographical and institutional organisation of Spain is provided to create a better understanding of the context of the decoupling analysis. Secondly, the decoupling of natural water usage is analysed. After this, the virtual water decoupling and natural water decoupling are examined in more depth. Spain s total surface area is about 506,000 km 2 and the climate is characterized by diversity. Not only in terms of landscape and vegetation, but especially the hydrological environment encompasses large temporal and regional differences. The annual rainfall is a good example of these differences. The national average is 684 mm per year. While on the Canary Islands, the average rainfall is approximately 302 mm/yr. The northern regions on the contrary, experience maximums of 2,282 mm/yr, see figure 4. The fluctuation in precipitation volumes fluctuations in-between seasons are above European averages, the volumes of are significantly lower than in the winter than during the summer (Garrido and Llamas, 2010). Just as every other Western-European country, the Spanish population has risen sturdily over the past decades. In 1960 the population was 30 million, 20 years later in 1980 the population was 38 million, during the turn of the century the population was 41 million. Currently, Spain has nearly 47 million inhabitants (INE, 2014). The demographics are characterised by an uneven distribution of the population. Since 1950, an internal migration from the rural areas to the coast and industrial cities occurred. An important pull factor of the urbanisation is the better economic conditions in this area (Gomez et al., 2008). The country is dived into 17 autonomous communities and two autonomous cities. With decentralised power, Spain can be seen as a quasi-federal state (Loughlin, 2008). The organisation of the water management has a long history, and emerged as a response to the diverse hydrological climate (De Stefano and Llamas, 2012). There are two types of river basin organisations: river basin authorities and hydraulic administrations. The administrative boundaries of the autonomous regions do not overlap with the hydrological basins, nor with the agricultural regulators. This creates difficulties in the water management, which will be addressed in more detail below. Figure 4: Average Annual Run-Off per Basin. Source: Adjusted from Garrido et al.,

24 4.1 Decoupling water usage in Spain Figure 5 displays the analysis of decoupling of natural water usage in Spain. The natural water supply is the surface water and groundwater abstracted in Spain, or blue water. The volumes of desalinated and reclaimed wastewater are shown in the total water supply. Total water consumption illustrates the net virtual water flows, which is the difference between the virtual -green and blue- water imports and exports. Since 1962, Spain has demonstrated both types of decoupling. The total water consumption and the natural water supply were coupled between The data shows rapid virtual water decoupling when Spain transferred into a democracy. The natural water decoupling is a more graduate process that accelerates at the turn of the century. Figure 5: The Decoupling of Natural Water in Spain. The total water consumption and the natural water supply where coupled between The first decoupling occurred during the transition to a democracy in The natural water decoupling is seen to be a graduate process where the trend accelerates after Source: Own elaboration. Data origins from different sources, more details see chapter 3.4. Natural Water Supply: Shiklomanov (1999); OECD statistical database (2014). Total Water Supply: Desalination Gasco (2004); Effluent Iglesias (2008) & Castro (2010). Virtual Water Flows: UNCOMTRADE & Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2012). 17

25 The resource development as seen in figure 5 are a result of a complex political process, especially, in arid and semiarid countries water. As Lopez-Gunn (2009, p.372) puts it strikingly water tends to stabilize those in power and can become a powerful symbol in politics, as part of national and regional identities, past, present and future. Water is therefore a prime object of appropriation for symbols and identity in relation to territory and territoriality and is increasingly and frequently used in sub-national politics. In the political dimension there are four periods of time distinguished that are all characterized by there own political economical paradigms. These are: Franco s Hydraulic Mission ( ); the Decoupled Hydraulic Mission ( ); First Reflexive Modernity ( ) and True Reflexive Modernity ( ) Franco s Hydraulic Mission At the end of the Civil War in 1939, Spain was in a sorrow state, infrastructures was heavily damaged and resources where scarce. This is when General Francisco Franco came to rule, he stayed in power single-handedly until his death in Which made him the longest ruling dictator in Europe of the 20 th century. Franco s regime was based upon a statist ideology, economic interventionism and high levels of state control and regulation. His political ambition was to repair the damaged infrastructures and improve irrigation. The General Public Works Plan (Plan General de Obras Publicas) of 1940 aimed to construct 1,162 dams with a water storage capacity of 78,00 Mm 3 between 1940 and 1960 (Cuadrado-Roura, 2010). This is an example of a policy that can be placed within the hydraulic mission paradigm. The hydraulic mission in characterised by a centrally controlled vision to develop hydraulic infrastructures (Allan, 2001). Figure 5 shows a strong increase in the NVW flows after This indicates high levels of food self-sufficiency during Franco s ruling and rapid opening of the trade economy during the turn into democracy. However, when placing this data into a political historical analysis it tells a different story. Franco s autarky and policy of food-self sufficiency lasted up to In 1957 a new ministerial chamber was assigned which concluded that the protectionist policy was unsustainable in the changing European political landscape. Spain became a member of the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation (OEEC) and in 1959 the stabilisation plan was approved. The stabilisation plan was a set of policies, which opened the Spanish market for international trade, such as establishing a balance of trade (Cuadrado-Roura, 2010). The plan was the start of a prosperous economic period with high levels of international trade. Donge (1979) named the period between Spanish 18

26 economic miracle because of the impressive economic development. The economic miracle story does not match with the low levels of NVW flows between 1962 and Therefore, it is likely to assume that this part of the data is inaccurate. The discrepancies can be explained in two ways. Either, Spain did not report the traded volumes and commodities properly to the UN, due to the political situation. Or a mistake in the calculation was made, as the coding system was different during this time (see annex II). Further research needs to be done to investigate this in depth. Even though, it is plausible to assume that the real values of traded virtual water between 1962 and 1977 are higher than the results of figure 5 show, we cannot be certain. Therefore, this research sticks to being guided by the data and set the real virtual water decoupling at 1978, especially because this is also when Spain became a democratic state. Franco strongly influenced and completely redesigned the hydraulic landscape. According to Swyngedouw (2006) the Franco s water policies where seen as a remedy, it would improve the national economy, disintegration and social malaise. It was aimed to regenerate Spain s unevenly distrusted hydrologic environment and modernize agricultural production. Hydraulic interventions and the mobilization of the country s erratic waters were conceived as a means to rationalize production, to serve as a wedge to permit structural land reform, and to facilitate access to land and water for the landless peasants (Swyngedouw, 2006, p.182). The availability of water became articulated and experienced as a problem of state voluntarism, rather than resulting from natural scarcity. If problems of scarcity existed, this was simply because of the incapacity of the state to perform its functions adequately. State management of water generated a sense of unlimited potential availability. Dams and irrigation works where built at a fast rate. The larger waterworks where all funded by the state. During this period, Spain experienced a rapid increase in the number of dams; The capacity of water storage at the beginning of Franco s regime was around 744 Hm 3 and in 1970 the accumulated reservoir capacity was as much as Mm 3 (Duarte et al., 2014c). The national Water Plan was set up as a strategy to overcome the drought in the south and was shaped by engineers. Environmental problems or concerns for water quality where not on the agenda (Lopez Gomez et al.,2008) 19

27 Decoupled Hydraulic Mission ( ) After Franco s decease in 1975 it took up to 1978 for Spain to form the new democratic constitution. This process was relatively peaceful, however existing elites tried to hold on to their power. Both the hydraulic and agricultural administration succeeded to keep their influential positions (Swyngedouw, 2014). The hydraulic elite was formed by the Corps of Engineers (Cuerpos) which was a closed group of men, that captured key positions within Spanish hydraulic bureaucracies (Lopez-Gunn, 2009). The crops of engineers where founded in 1799, and in there technocratic approach was kept up to the 90. With key positions in the River Basin Authorities they dominated Spanish water policy. The objective was the to control the fields and rivers and create hydropower capacity (Lopez-Gunn, 2009). Figure 5 shows that the hydraulic mission remained unquestioned and the natural water usages increased steadily (Garrido and Llamas, 2010). First Reflexive Modernity ( ) In 1985 the water usage in Spain peaked at a volume of Mm 3, in the same year a new Water Act was accepted. The following years shows a decline natural water usage. This decline could be seen a logical result of the 1985 Water Act, legislation that succeeded in a lowering of the natural water abstraction. However, Garrido and Llamas (2010), Swyngedouw (2006; 2014) and (Lopez-Gunn, 2009) all argue that the hydraulic paradigm remained unquestioned up to the early 90. According to Garrido and Llamas (2010) the 1985 law maintained regulations to support farmers. They continue to have cheap access to water, and where subsided with houses, tractors and capital. The Water Act stipulated that engineers governed water allocation and the Cuerpos was still in power. Nonetheless, the natural water abstraction between 1985 shows a clear decline to 1993, after which it rises, to peak again in A possible explanation for the decline in water abstraction can also be a series of droughts in 1986, 1990 and 1993 (Downing et al., 2002). Water problems became noticeable to many Spaniards and the attention in the public grew (Garrido and Llamas, 2010). In 1986 Spain became a member of the EEC, the preassessor of the European Union. Together with this process the voices of environmentalist and regionalist got stronger, and the attention for wetlands and ecosystems grew (Swyngedouw, 2006). 20

28 Second Reflexive Modernity ( ) The 1999 Water Framework and 2000 EU water framework directive (WFD) where the start of a new phase during which the country embarked on a search for a new balance between the limits of the natural water supply and the environment and the economic demands (Gomez et al., 2008). As figure 5 shows, from that point onwards the natural water abstraction levels decline. In 2010 the natural water abstraction was 27,244 Mm 3 /yr, which is around the same level of 1994 (28,282 Mm 3 ) and 1976 (27,500 Mm 3 ). The main goal of the WFD is to improve the water bodies by As member of the EU, Spain had to comply with this regulation and improve the state of her water bodies. This externally pressured them into a more environmentally focussed water management (Garrido and Llamas, 2010). Figure 5 also clearly indicated a strong diversification of the total water consumption since The virtual water decoupling and the natural water decoupling are discussed below. In appendix III the ground and surface water abstraction are set out per sector. This shows that the groundwater abstraction decreased stronger after 1999 than the surface water abstraction. 4.2 Virtual water decoupling In this part the virtual water decoupling of Spain is analysed, as noted in both in chapter 3 and section 4.1 this method has its limitations. Therefore, this part will first compare the results presented in this research to other literature. Before, analysing the political process involved with virtual water decoupling. There are three main studies identified that have studied Water Footprints in Spain (Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012; Garrido et al., 2010; Duarte et al. 2014c). The results and conclusions of all three studies differ, even when, the same calculation is done. Pivotal in science is that research is replicable and the results are the same, which is one of the reasons why the Water Footprint method is contested (Ansink, 2010; Wilchens 2012). Nonetheless, the Water Footprint is currently the best available method to show a countries dependence on virtual water imports. An essential part of this research is Spain s dependence external water resources. Virtual water flows show how a country becomes increasingly or decreasingly dependent on green and blue water from other countries. Likewise, virtual water imports can contribute to reducing the internal blue water abstraction and halt environmental degradation. Even though, the results of the Water Footprint are not perfect, they have the merit of existing and contribute to understanding of the macro water consumption trends. 21

29 Table 2 shows that the results of this research are in-between the volumes of Garrido et al. (2010) and Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2012). Aldaya et al. (2010) explained the variance between the results of these authors in two ways. Garrido et al. (2010) used the MIAMAR data, while Hoekstra and Mekonnen use UN-Comtrade data (the PC-TAS CD). This research is based upon UN-Comtrade data, just as Hoekstra and Mekonnen. Garrido et al. incorporated regional level and climate data. This research also accounts for the origin of the product at the import side. Therefore, it is logical that the results of this study are in between the other studies. An added value of Hoekstra and Mekonnen s research is that is it comparable with other countries. While a strong asset of Garrido s work, is the focus on regional climate differences and the high level of detail. The virtual water trade calculations of Duarte et al. (2014b) cover and are thus not comparable to our research. Table 2: Comparison of different sources of virtual water flows Source: Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2012) 1 Virtual water Imports Crop products (Mm 3 /year) Green Blue Total 37,090 4,598 41,689 Virtual Water Imports Animal Products (Mm 3 /year) Green Blue Total 3, ,445 Virtual Water Imports Industrial products (Mm 3 /year) Green Blue Total Total Virtual Water Exports (Mm 3 /year) Green Blue Total 40,910 5,753 46,663 Garrido et all Total 24, Total 31,099 (2010) 2 Own elaboration 3 Green Blue Total 32,403 2,369 34,772 Green Blue Total 3, ,054 - Green Blue Total 36,195 2,632 38,827 Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2012) 1 Virtual Water Exports Crop products (Mm 3 /year) Green Blue Total 13,755 7,959 21,714 Virtual Water Exports Animal Products (Mm 3 /year) Green Blue Total 5, ,638 Virtual Water Exports Industrial products (Mm 3 /year) Green Blue Total Total Virtual Water Exports (Mm 3 /year) Green Blue Total 19,523 9,048 28,571 Garrido et all Total 18,299 (2010) 2 Own elaboration 3 Green Blue Total 13, ,566 Green Blue Total 5, ,118 - Green Blue Total 18,511 6,243 24,774 1 Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2012) Averages for the period Original data also includes Grey water. 2 Garrido et al. (2010) Averages for the period Averages for the period Totals exclude Industrial products 22