AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS. Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Transcription

1 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory September Quarter 2013

2 Commonwealth of Australia Published by the Department of the Environment. ISSN (print), ISSN (online) Copyright notice: Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the Commonwealth of Australia. Disclaimer: While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the content, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

3 CONTENTS 1. Overview 2 2. Sectoral analysis Energy Electricity Energy Stationary energy excluding electricity Energy Transport Energy Fugitive emissions Industrial processes Agriculture Waste Sectoral summary including land use, land use change and forestry Sectoral analysis Land use, land use change and forestry Deforestation Afforestation and reforestation Australia s first commitment period Kyoto target Emissions per capita and per dollar of GDP Updated Global Warming Potentials Technical notes Data tables Related publications and resources 29 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

4 1. OVERVIEW Table 1: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1, September quarter 2013, emissions growth rates September quarter Year to September 2013 Quarterly change seasonally adjusted and weather normalised trend 2-0.4% Quarterly change seasonally adjusted and weather normalised -1.0% Annual change over year to September -0.3% Summary of quarterly emissions Emissions decreased in the September quarter 2013, with trend emissions falling by 0.4% and seasonally adjusted emissions declining by 1.0% (Figures 1-3). Figure 2: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 3 quarterly, seasonally adjusted and weather normalised and original 2 emissions, September quarter Figure 1: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1, quarterly emissions growth rates, seasonally adjusted and weather normalised and trend 2, September quarter % 4% Mt CO 2 -e % 3% % 1% 2% 1% % 0% -1% -1% -2% -2% Original emissions Seasonally adjusted and weather normalised -3% -4% -3% -4% Source: Department of the Environment estimates. Seasonally adjusted and weather normalised Source: Department of the Environment estimates. Trend Figure 3: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 3 quarterly, trend emissions, September quarter Mt CO 2 -e Excluding emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). 2 Original, seasonally adjusted, weather normalised and trend are defined in Section 8: Technical Notes. Trend Source: Department of the Environment estimates. 2 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

5 Summary of annual emissions Annual emissions for the year to September 2013 are estimated to be Mt CO 2 -e. This represents a 0.3% decline in emissions when compared with the previous year. Annual emissions for the year to September 2003 to 2013 are presented in Figure 4. Sectoral summary The National Greenhouse Gas Inventory data, disaggregated by sector for the year to September 2012 and 2013, are presented in Table 2. This table excludes the LULUCF sectors of deforestation and afforestation and reforestation, which are discussed in sections 3 and 4, due to limited availability of new datasets for the September quarter. Figure 4: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 3 annual, original emissions, year to September 2003 to The annual emissions by sector over the year to September 2013 are presented in Figure 5. This figure illustrates the relative size of each of the sectors in Table 2. The quarterly and annual changes in emissions for each of these sectors are presented in section 2. Mt CO 2 -e Figure 5: Emissions by sector, 3 Australia, annual, year to September Waste Agriculture 400 Annual emissions Source: Department of the Environment estimates. Over the year to September 2013, there was a decline in emissions from electricity (section 2.1), reflecting lower electricity demand and changes in the generation mix. This decline was partially offset by increases in the fugitive emissions (section 2.4), transport (section 2.3), stationary energy (section 2.2) and agriculture (section 2.6) sectors. Mt CO 2 -e Source: Department of the Environment estimates. Industrial processes Fugitive emissions Transport Stationary energy excluding electricity Electricity Table 2: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 3 original emissions by sector, year to September 2012 and 2013 Sector Annual emissions (Mt CO 2 -e) Year to September 2012 Year to September 2013 Change (%) Energy Electricity % Energy Stationary energy excluding electricity % Energy Transport % Energy Fugitive emissions % Industrial processes % Agriculture % Waste % National Inventory Total (excluding LULUCF) % Source: Department of the Environment estimates. 3 Excluding emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

6 Sectoral trends since 1990 Since 1990, the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (excluding LULUCF) has grown by 30.5%, reaching Mt CO 2 -e in the year to September 2013, compared with Mt CO 2 -e in the 1990 base year (year to June). Figure 7: Percentage change in emissions by sector since 1990, Australia, to with preliminary estimates for and The electricity sector has experienced the largest growth, increasing by 51.3 Mt CO 2 -e between and the year to September In percentage terms, electricity and stationary energy excluding electricity grew 39.6% and 43.0% respectively. Emissions from transport grew 53.6%, fugitive emissions increased by 37.6%, industrial processes grew 24.2%, and agriculture increased by 4.6%. In contrast, emissions from the waste sector have declined by 25.9% since Figures 6 and 7 present the growth in emissions from each sector from to and preliminary estimates for and , in Mt CO 2 -e and in percentage terms. Change since 1990 (%) 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% -15% -30% Electricity Transport Industrial processes Waste Stationary energy excluding electricity Fugitive emissions Agriculture Figure 6: Change in emissions by sector since 1990, Australia, to with preliminary estimates for and Source: Department of the Environment estimates Change since 1990 (Mt CO 2 -e) Electricity Transport Industrial processes Waste Stationary energy excluding electricity Fugitive emissions Agriculture Source: Department of the Environment estimates. 4 The long term trends are displayed using years to June, consistent with Australia s international reporting. 4 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

7 2. SECTORAL ANALYSIS 2.1 Energy Electricity The electricity sector consists of emissions from the generation of electricity by combustion of fuels, mainly coal and natural gas. Renewable sources of electricity (such as hydroelectricity, wind and solar) do not emit greenhouse gases. Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in the national inventory, accounting for 33% of emissions in the year to September Electricity sector emissions have declined significantly from peaks recorded in Temperature influences electricity demand, and is an important predictor of electricity sector emissions in Australia. Adjustments for temperature effects are made to the time series of emissions, in order to more clearly reflect the impacts of other underlying factors. 5 Two temperature adjustments are made: (1) Seasonal adjustment electricity demand has two seasonal peaks each year, one in winter (associated with demand for heating) and one in summer (associated with demand for cooling). The seasonal adjustment is a first-order adjustment that systematically corrects for average seasonal fluctuations; and (2) Weather normalisation 6 - In addition to the average seasonal effects, there are frequent irregular temperature fluctuations around seasonal averages, which are not captured by the seasonal adjustment process. For example, an unusually cold winter will tend to result in even higher emissions than normal in the September quarter, since demand for electricity for heating is greater than normal. The weather normalisation is a second-order adjustment that systematically corrects for these additional temperature effects on electricity demand. More information on seasonal adjustment, trend, original and weather normalisation analysis is in Section 8 Technical Notes. 5 In the electricity sector, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates include weather normalisation, since electricity emissions are significantly influenced by quarterly variations around average seasonal temperatures. All other sectors are presented without weather normalisation, as emissions in these sectors are not significantly influenced by variations from average seasonal temperatures. See Section 8: Technical Notes for more details on seasonal adjustment, trend analysis and weather normalisation. 6 The weather normalisation methodology is described in detail in Section 7: Special Topic of the December 2011 edition of the Quarterly Update. Original emissions and seasonally adjusted and weather normalised estimates of quarterly emissions are presented in Figure 8. Figure 8: Electricity, quarterly, original and seasonally adjusted and weather normalised emissions, September quarter 2003 to 2013 Mt CO 2 -e Original emissions Seasonally adjusted and weather normalised emissions Source: Department of the Environment estimates. Original emissions from electricity generation decreased by 4.1% in the September quarter On a seasonally adjusted and weather normalised basis, September 2013 emissions decreased by 2.5%, and trend emissions decreased by 1.0%, since June The quarterly decline was partially due to a reduction in generation from coal power stations. These results cover all electricity emissions in Australia including the National Electricity Market (NEM), Western Australia s South West Interconnected System (SWIS) and other regional networks. The NEM covers Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania and accounts for over 80% of total Australian electricity generation. Electricity demand in the NEM is presented in Figure 9. Over the year to September 2013, annual emissions from electricity generation fell by 5.5%. This was partially attributed to a decrease in demand in the NEM (Figure 9). Demand in the year to September 2013 was 2.9% lower than the previous year, registering the lowest level seen since Tasmania joined the NEM in 2006 (Figure 9) AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

8 Figure 9: Annual metered electricity demand in the National Electricity Market, year to the quarter, TWh Figure 10: Annual electricity generation by fuel in the National Electricity Market, year to September TWh Black coal Brown coal Gas Hydroelectric Other renewables Source: Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO, 2013), obtained using NEM-Review software. Note: The data in Figure 9 includes target demand and intermittent generation. Changes in the fuel mix used to generate electricity have also contributed to the recent decline in emissions. Over the year to September 2013, generation in the NEM from black coal decreased by 3.6% and brown coal generation decreased by 9.9%, with both fuels registering their lowest generation levels in more than a decade. Natural gas generation also decreased by 1.5%, whereas hydroelectric generation grew by 16.1%. Generation from other renewables continues to grow, increasing by 20.4%, from a proportionately small base (Figure 10). Since 1990, emissions from the electricity sector have increased by 37.9%, reaching Mt CO 2 -e in the year to September 2013, compared to Mt CO 2 -e in the 1990 base year (year to June). However, annual emissions from electricity have decreased in recent years, remaining below their peak of Mt CO 2 -e in year to December Source: Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO, 2013), obtained using NEM-Review software. September 2009 September 2010 September 2011 September 2012 September Energy Stationary energy excluding electricity Stationary energy excluding electricity includes emissions from direct combustion of fuels, predominantly in the manufacturing, mining, residential and commercial sectors. In the year to September 2013, stationary energy excluding electricity accounted for 17% of Australia s national inventory. Figure 11 presents the emissions per quarter from the major sub-categories for stationary energy excluding electricity, decomposed into the following categories: Energy industries includes fuel combustion in the petroleum refining, oil and gas extraction and processing, coal mining and solid fuel manufacturing sectors. Emissions from electricity generation are analysed separately (section 2.1); Manufacturing industries and construction includes fuel combusted in the manufacturing, non-energy mining and construction sectors; and Other sectors includes fuel combustion by the commercial, institutional, residential, agriculture, fishery and forestry and military sectors. 7 The data presented in Figure 9 represents demand for the year to the quarter in the x-axis. For example, December 2012 correlates to demand from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2012 and September 2012 correlates to demand from 1 October 2011 to 30 September AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

9 In the September 2013 quarter, emissions from stationary energy excluding electricity decreased by 0.6% in trend terms. Reductions in emissions in coke production and iron and steel production contributed to the trend decrease. This trend decrease was partially offset by a quarterly increase in emissions from fuels combusted in the manufacture of nonferrous metals (a sub-sector of manufacturing industries and construction, Figure 11). Annual emissions in stationary energy excluding electricity increased by 1.7% over the year to September This increase is predominantly driven by increased emissions from fuels combusted in coal, oil and natural gas extraction, and in other mining. This annual increase was partially offset by decreases in fuels combusted in the manufacture of nonferrous metals and petroleum refining. Figure 11: Quarterly emissions from stationary energy excluding electricity, Emissions from the transport sector decreased 0.1% in trend terms in the September 2013 quarter. Annual emissions from transport in the year to September 2013 are estimated to have increased by 2.0%. The primary drivers were increases in the consumption of diesel oil in road transport and railways, and in the consumption of aviation turbine fuel in civil aviation. In the Quarterly Update, percentage changes in national liquid fuel consumption apply across the multiple sectors that consume these fuels. Therefore, it is possible that increases in diesel consumption are somewhat overstated in the transport sector from the September quarter 2012, and may be re-allocated to the stationary energy excluding electricity sector after final data sources become available in July Annual consumption of the major liquid fuels is presented in Figure 12. This figure reflects all consumption, regardless of sector, however domestic transport accounts for over 70% 8 of liquid fuels consumed in Australia. Mt CO 2 -e The past five years have seen an overall decrease of 1.4% in consumption of all automotive gasoline (including ethanolblended) and strong increases in diesel and aviation turbine fuel consumption of 23.3% and 27.6% respectively. Figure 12: Consumption of major liquid fuels, year to September 2007 to Energy industries excluding electricity Manufacturing industries and construction Other sectors Sources: Department of the Environment estimates from AGEIS; ABS, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product (tables 1 and 37); ABS, Production of Selected Construction Materials (table 2). Gigalitres Since 1990, emissions from the stationary energy excluding electricity sector have increased by 42.5%, to 92.2 Mt CO 2 -e in , compared to 64.7 Mt CO 2 -e in the 1990 base year (year to June). 2.3 Energy Transport The transport sector includes emissions from the direct combustion of fuels in transportation by road, rail, domestic aviation and domestic shipping. The main fuels used for transport are automotive gasoline (petrol), diesel oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and aviation turbine fuel. In the year to September 2013, transport accounted for 17% of Australia s national inventory. Automotive gasoline Ethanol blended Diesel Aviation turbine fuel Liquid petroleum gas Fuel oil Sources: BREE 2013, Australian Petroleum Statistics 8 Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (2013). Australian Energy Statistics: Table F AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

10 Since 1990, emissions from the transport sector have increased by 53.7%, to 92.8 Mt CO 2 -e in the year to September 2013, compared to 60.4 Mt CO 2 -e Passenger cars were the largest transport source, contributing a 43.3 Mt CO 2 -e (26.6%) increase on 1990 emissions. Heavy-duty trucks and buses increased 83.6% to 20.7 Mt CO 2 -e and light commercial vehicles increased 91.9% to 14.1 Mt CO 2 -e. Emissions from domestic air transport have experienced the largest growth since 1990, increasing 207.5% to 8.0 Mt CO 2 -e. Figure 13: Fugitive emissions from coal mining, annual, to and preliminary estimates for and Energy Fugitive emissions Fugitive emissions occur during the production, processing, transport, storage, transmission and distribution of fossil fuels such as black coal, crude oil and natural gas. Emissions from decommissioned underground coal mines are also included in this sector. In the year to September 2013, fugitive emissions accounted for 8% of Australia s national inventory. Fugitive emissions from fuel extraction have decreased 2.6% in trend terms in the September quarter 2013, however, annual emissions in this sector have increased by 8.3% over the year to September This annual increase was driven by a 7.8% increase in raw black coal production 9 and a 6.9% increase in the production of natural gas 9. Coal mine emissions increased, mainly due to an 18% increase in production in New South Wales underground coal mines. Since 1990, fugitive emissions have increased by 37.3%, reaching 44.8 Mt CO 2 -e in the year to September 2013, compared to 32.7 Mt CO 2 -e in the 1990 base year (year to June). Fugitive emissions from solid fuels contributed the largest volume of emissions, growing 56.5% from 19.6 Mt CO 2 -e in 1990 to 30.6 Mt CO 2 -e in the year to September Figure 13 provides further detail on the sources of fugitive emissions from coal mining. Fugitive emissions have not grown as fast as coal production principally because, since 1998, there has been an increasing trend in activity from open cut mines compared to underground mines. Within underground mines, there has also been a decreasing share of production from the gassiest of mines, and technologies have been implemented to either flare or recover coal mine waste gases from underground coal mines for electricity generation. In , around 25% of coal mine waste gases from underground coal mines was recovered or flared. Sources: Department of the Environment estimates. Fugitive emissions from the extraction of oil and natural gas have increased 8.6% from 13.1 Mt CO 2 -e in 1990 to 14.2 Mt CO 2 -e in the year to September Since 1990, fugitive emissions growth of 25.9% in natural gas extraction and 2.2% in venting and flaring has been tempered by a 39.8% decline in fugitive emissions from oil extraction. 2.5 Industrial processes Emissions from industrial processes occur as the result of by-products of materials and reactions used in production processes. In the national inventory, this sector includes emissions from processes used to produce chemical, metal, and mineral products, as well as emissions from the consumption of synthetic gases. In the year to September 2013, industrial processes accounted for 6% of Australia s national inventory. Figure 14 presents the emissions per quarter for the major sub-sectors comprising industrial processes; chemical industry, consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), metal production, mineral products and other production. 9 BREE, Resources and Energy Quarterly, December Quarter AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

11 Figure 14: Quarterly emissions from industrial processes, Mt CO 2 - e September 2003 September 2004 September 2005 September 2006 September 2007 Metal produc;on Mineral products September 2008 Sources: Department of the Environment estimates based on Resources and Energy Quarterly, December Quarter 2013 (BREE). September 2009 September 2010 Consump;on of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride Chemical industry and other produc;on September 2011 September 2012 September 2013 Trend emissions for industrial processes decreased by 0.5% in the September quarter Industrial processes emissions increased 0.4% over the year to September This was driven by a 6.4% increase in emissions from cement production and a 5.2% increase in emissions from the consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride. This increase was partially offset by a 4.6% reduction in iron and steel production and a 6.7% reduction in aluminium production. Since 1990, emissions from industrial processes have increased by 23.8%, to 30.5 Mt CO 2 -e in the year to September 2013, compared to 24.7 Mt CO 2 -e in the 1990 base year (year to June). Increases in emissions from the chemical industry and mineral products have been partially offset by a decrease in emissions from metal production. Industrial processes emissions from metal production decreased 39.3% to 9.5 Mt CO 2 -e in , compared with 15.6 Mt CO 2 -e in the 1990 base year (year to June). Since 1990, emissions from the chemical industry are up 171.3% to 5.6 Mt CO 2 -e and emissions from the consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride have grown from 0.2 Mt CO 2 -e in 1990 to 8.6 Mt CO 2 -e in the year to September Agriculture Emissions from agriculture include methane and nitrous oxide from enteric fermentation in livestock, manure management, rice cultivation, agricultural soils, savanna burning and field burning of agricultural residues. In the year to September 2013, agriculture accounted for 17% of Australia s national inventory. The agriculture sector is the dominant source for both methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Agriculture emissions have increased by 1.8% for the year to September 2013 compared with the previous twelve months. This increase is driven by increases in emissions from savanna burning. Very small declines (<0.4%) are estimated for enteric fermentation and agricultural soil emissions over this period. With two years of high rainfall in northern Australia the area of savanna burnt is estimated to increase significantly in 2013, however there are high uncertainties around this estimate. More accurate estimates based on remote sensing data will be available in the next National Inventory Report. Emissions for the year to September 2013 were 90.4 Mt CO 2 -e, which is 4.6% higher than the 1990 base year emissions of 86.5 Mt CO 2 -e. Agricultural emissions by subsector are presented in Figure 15. Figure 15: Agriculture emissions by sub-sector, to and preliminary estimates for and Mt CO 2 - e Enteric fermenta7on Manure management Prescribed burning of savannas Source: Department of the Environment estimates Agricultural Soils, rice cul7va7on and field burning of agricultural residues AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

12 2.7 Waste The waste sector includes emissions from landfills, wastewater treatment, waste incineration and the biological treatment of solid waste. Emissions largely consist of methane, which is generated when organic matter decays under anaerobic conditions. In the year to September 2013, waste accounted for 2% of Australia s national inventory. Emissions of carbon dioxide from the decay of organic matter under aerobic conditions do not count towards the national inventory since an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide is considered to have been removed from the atmosphere during the life cycle of the living biomass (for example, during plant growth). In the year to September 2013, annual emissions from waste decreased 0.3%. Figure 16 presents the relative size of the various waste sub-sectors. The largest sub-sector is solid waste disposal on land. Figure 16: Waste emissions by sub-sector, annual, to and preliminary estimates for and Mt CO 2 - e Solid waste disposal on land Wastewater handling, waste incinera?on and biological treatment of solid waste Source: Department of the Environment estimates. Since 1990, emissions from the waste sector have declined by around 25.9%, to 12.6 Mt CO 2 -e in the year to September 2013, compared to 17.0 Mt CO 2 -e in the 1990 base year (year to June). While methane generation from landfills has increased since 1990, emissions from this source have been significantly reduced through growth in methane recovery. Methane recovery from all sub-sectors of waste has increased from 0.6 Mt CO 2 -e in 1990 to around 7.0 Mt CO 2 -e in AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

13 3. SECTORAL SUMMARY INCLUDING LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY Table 3: Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, net emissions by sector, and Sector Annual net emissions (Mt CO 2 -e) Year to September 2012 Year to September 2013 Change (%) Energy Electricity % Energy Stationary energy excluding electricity % Energy Transport % Energy Fugitive emissions % Industrial processes % Agriculture % Waste % National Inventory Total (excluding LULUCF) % LULUCF Deforestation % (a) LULUCF Afforestation and reforestation % (a) Total (including LULUCF) N/A (b) (a) LULUCF estimates were developed on the basis of accounting rules applicable to the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (ended 31 December 2012) and the second commitment period (commenced 1 January 2013). As the accounting rules that apply to these two periods are slightly different, a consistent year-on-year comparison of emissions is subject to limitations during this transition period ( ). (b) Quarterly estimates are not yet available for Article 3.4 LULUCF activities which are applicable for reporting in the second commitment period. Future quarterly inventories will progressively incorporate estimates for Article 3.4 LULUCF activities; forest management, cropland management and grazing land management. The national inventory disaggregated by sector for and is presented in Table 3. This table includes estimates for Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3 LULUCF activities. 10 Further discussion of the LULUCF estimates is presented in section 4. In addition to deforestation, afforestation and reforestation emissions, all emissions and removals from forest land, cropland and grassland as well as those resulting from conversions of forest land to grassland or cropland are estimated and reported in accordance with UNFCCC reporting requirements and published annually in the National Inventory Report. 10 The estimates for deforestation and afforestation and reforestation are subject to a greater level of uncertainty than the other sectors in the national inventory. See section 8 for more detail on uncertainties. AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

14 Sectoral trends since 1990 Land use, land use change and forestry Net emissions from LULUCF activities were estimated at 27.8 Mt CO 2 -e in the year to September 2013, which consisted of net emissions of 48.7 Mt CO 2 -e from deforestation and net removals (sequestration) of 20.9 Mt CO 2 -e from afforestation and reforestation. This amounts to a substantial decline since 1990, when net emissions from Land Use Change 10 were Mt CO 2 -e. Under Kyoto accounting rules, afforestation and reforestation only includes net removals from new forest plantings established since 31 December,1989. Therefore, net removals in 1990 are zero. Figure 17 illustrates the trends since 1990 and over the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ( ). Figure 17: Net emissions from land use, land use change and forestry activities, 10 calendar years, 1990, and preliminary estimates for Mt CO 2 -e Land Use Change Deforestation Afforestation and reforestation Source: Department of the Environment estimates. 12 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

15 4. SECTORAL ANALYSIS LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY 4.1 Deforestation 11 Under the Kyoto Protocol, deforestation is defined as the direct, human-induced removal of forest cover on land that was forest on 1 January Emissions result when cleared vegetation is burned or left to decay, and as soil carbon levels decline over time. Net quarterly emissions from deforestation are estimated to be 12.4 Mt CO 2 -e in the September quarter Annual emissions over the year to September 2013 are estimated to be 48.7 Mt CO 2 -e, an increase of 8.2% when compared with the previous year. This predicted increase is partly the result of an increase in the farmers terms of trade. 12 Analysis has found a positive relationship between rates of land clearing and changes in the farmers terms of trade, with a one-year lag. The preliminary quarterly estimate of emissions from deforestation has been projected based on historical rates of land clearing and projections of the farmers terms of trade. For farmers and other landowners, economic considerations are an important driver of land clearing. When the prices of agricultural products, for example beef, are high, landowners have a strong incentive to clear land and expand production. Figure 18 provides an overview of annual emissions from deforestation 13 since Deforestation emissions have declined considerably over this period. Satellite images are not yet available to support the emissions estimates for Therefore, the preliminary estimates for deforestation are subject to change and have a greater level of uncertainty than the other sectors in the national inventory (see Quarterly Uncertainty in section 8). Figure 18: Net emissions from deforestation, calendar years, and preliminary estimates for Mt CO 2 -e Source: Department of the Environment estimates. Kyoto period 11 Deforestation, afforestation and reforestation are consistent with Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3. Land Use Change is consistent with Kyoto Protocol Article Estimates of the farmers terms of trade are published by ABARES in the publications Agricultural Commodity Statistics and Agricultural Commodities. 13 Deforestation emissions under Kyoto accounting rules can only be calculated for the Kyoto period, from 2008 onwards. UNFCCC reporting for land use change is presented in the chart to provide a historical time series, although the two series are not strictly comparable. Unlike UNFCCC reporting, Kyoto accounting rules for deforestation include only deforestation and any subsequent afforestation or reforestation activities of land that was forested in AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

16 4.2 Afforestation and reforestation 14 Under the Kyoto Protocol, the afforestation and reforestation sector covers new commercial and environmental forest plantations by direct human action on land not forested in Net emissions are typically negative, as sequestration of carbon in biomass of growing trees outweighs emissions from harvesting activities. Net quarterly emissions from afforestation and reforestation are estimated to be -4.8 Mt CO 2 -e in the September quarter Figure 19 presents emissions estimates for this sector from 1990 to These estimates have been updated to include additions to the FullCAM tree species database (mallee species and updated calibration of environmental plantings) and implementation of the harvest sub-rule based on a complete time-series for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ( ). On an annual basis, net sequestration decreased by 20.8% to Mt CO 2 -e over the year to September The main causes for the decline in afforestation and reforestation credits in are changes in accounting rules for the second commitment period 15 and lower rates of plantings. Satellite images are not yet available to support the emissions estimates for Therefore, the preliminary estimates for afforestation and reforestation are subject to change and have a greater level of uncertainty than the other sectors in the national inventory (see Quarterly Uncertainty in section 8). Figure 19: Net emissions from afforestation and reforestation, calendar years, and preliminary estimates for 2012 Mt CO 2 -e Source: Department of the Environment estimates. 14 Deforestation, afforestation and reforestation consistent with Kyoto Protocol Article The harvest sub-rule of the Kyoto Protocol only applies to the first commitment period ( ), not the second commitment period ( ). See technical notes (section 8) for further details. 14 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

17 5. AUSTRALIA S FIRST COMMITMENT PERIOD KYOTO TARGET Australia remains on track to meet its Kyoto Protocol target of limiting emissions to 108% of 1990 levels, on average, over the Kyoto period Over the five reporting years in the Kyoto period ( to and preliminary ), Australia s net emissions averaged 104% of the base year level. Using the preliminary estimates for the energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste sectors and projections for Article 3.3 LULUCF activities, Australia had an estimated net surplus over of 25.5 Mt CO 2 -e. Total net surplus over the entire 5-year first commitment period is estimated as Mt. Table 4: Accounting for Australia s Kyoto Target: , , , and preliminary estimates, year to June (a) Emissions Mt CO 2 -e Article 3.1 Annex A sectors Preliminary Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste National Inventory total Article 3.3 KP LULUCF activities (b) Afforestation/Reforestation Deforestation (1) Kyoto Protocol Total (2) Australia s Assigned Amount Units (c) Surplus Assigned Amount Units (2) (1) (d) (a) (b) (c) Totals may express slight differences due to rounding effects. Consistent with the convention used for Australia s international reporting, estimates for LULUCF sectors are presented on a calendar year basis (year to December), while estimates for all other sectors in the national inventory are presented on a financial year basis (year to June). Source: The Australian Government s Initial Report under the Kyoto Protocol, revised submission, October Australia s commitment and assigned amount are not allocated to individual years the number shown is an annual average of the assigned amount. (d) The first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol extends from 2008 to A positive net balance should be maintained over the life of the commitment period. Any net surplus of assigned amount units available in the initial years may be used to cover any deficits arising from growth of emissions in the remainder of the commitment period. AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

18 6. EMISSIONS PER CAPITA AND PER DOLLAR OF GDP Australia s emissions per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product (GDP) have declined over the last twenty years. For the year to September 2013, national inventory emissions per capita (excluding LULUCF) were 23.5 t CO 2 -e per person, compared to 24.5 t CO 2 -e in , representing a 4.1% decline. When LULUCF activities are included (deforestation, afforestation and reforestation), the year to September 2013 estimate is 24.7 t CO 2 -e per person, compared to 32.8 t CO 2 -e in , representing a 24.6% decline. Australia s population grew strongly over this period, from 16.9 million in September 1989 to around 23.2 million in 16, 17 September 2013 (growth of 37.7%). National inventory emissions per dollar of real GDP (excluding LULUCF) fell from 0.55 kg CO 2 -e per dollar in to 0.35 kg CO 2 -e per dollar in the year to September 2013, which is a decline of 36.1%. 18 Australia s GDP grew significantly over this period, from $751 billion in the year to June 1990 to $1,534 billion in the year to September 2013 (growth of 104.4%). When LULUCF is included (deforestation, afforestation and reforestation), the estimate is 0.74 kg CO 2 -e per dollar, compared to 0.37 kg CO 2 -e per dollar in , which is a decline of 49.8%. 18 Figure 20 provides an overview of emissions per capita and per dollar of real GDP over the years to September , illustrating the declining trends. Figure 20: Emissions (excluding LULUCF) per capita and per dollar of real GDP ( prices), annual, year to September t CO 2 - e per person Emissions per capita September 2003 September 2004 September 2005 September 2006 September 2007 September 2008 September 2009 September 2010 September 2011 September 2012 September 2013 Source: Department of the Environment estimates, ABS (2013), Australian Demographic Statistics , and ABS (2013), Australian National Accounts Emissions per dollar of real GDP kg CO 2 - e per $ of real GDP These declines have resulted from specific emissions management actions across sectors, the large decline in land use change emissions over the period, and structural changes in the economy. 16 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012), Australian Demographic Statistics, pub. no Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013), Population Clock prices. 16 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

19 7. UPDATED GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are used to convert masses of different greenhouse gases into a single carbon dioxide-equivalent metric (CO 2 -e). In broad terms, multiplying a mass of a particular gas by its GWP gives the mass of carbon dioxide emissions that would produce the same warming effect over a 100 year period. Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Accounts apply GWPs to convert our emissions to a CO 2 -e total. At the 2011 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting in Durban, South Africa, countries agreed to adopt updated GWPs including new greenhouse gases published in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report from 2015 onwards (reporting emissions for the 2013 inventory year) and for commitments under a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. These GWPs replace those used from the IPCC s Second Assessment Report. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report can be found at the following web address: contents.html Table 5 shows a comparison of the current and updated GWPs. Table 5: Global Warming Potentials Gas Current GWPs Updated GWPs CO CH N 2 O HFC HFC-125 2,800 3,500 HFC-134a 1,300 1,430 HFC-143a 3,800 4,470 CF 4 6,500 7,390 C 2 F 6 9,200 12,200 SF 6 23,900 22,800 Under current policy, the updated GWPs will be used from the reporting year for the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting (NGER) scheme. Waste deposited before 1 July 2017 will continue to use the current GWPs while waste deposited after this date will use the updated GWPs. The updated GWPs are included for comparative purposes to provide some initial insight into the effect of the updated GWPs on Australia s emission estimates in the future. Table 6 shows the effect of the updated GWPs on Australia s September 2013 quarterly emissions. Table 6: September 2013 Quarterly Emissions using updated GWPs Sector Current GWPs Mt CO 2 -e Updated GWPs Mt CO 2 -e Energy Electricity Energy Stationary energy excluding electricity Energy Transport Energy Fugitive emissions Industrial processes Agriculture Waste National Inventory Total (excluding LULUCF) Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Total (including LULUCF) Source: Department of the Environment estimates. Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007). AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

20 8. TECHNICAL NOTES Quarterly Coverage This report provides estimates of Australia s national inventory up to the September quarter of 2013 and includes emission sources listed under Annex A of the Kyoto Protocol energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste sectors. Since the December quarter 2011 edition, this report also includes quarterly estimates for Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3 activities (deforestation, afforestation and reforestation). International Guidelines The National Greenhouse Gas Inventory is prepared in accordance with the IPCC 1996 Revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, the IPCC 2000 Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and the IPCC 2003 Good Practice Guidance for Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry. Where appropriate, elements of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories are being progressively implemented. Greenhouse Gases Consistent with the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol, this report covers sources of greenhouse gas emissions and removals by sinks resulting from human (anthropogenic) activities for the major greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ). Global warming potentials (GWPs) have been used for each of the major greenhouse gases to convert them to carbon dioxide equivalents (CO 2 -e). As greenhouse gases vary in their radiative activity and in their atmospheric residence time, converting emissions into CO 2 -e allows the integrated effect of emissions of the various gases to be compared. The GWPs used in this Report were the 100-year GWPs contained in the 1995 IPCC Second Assessment Report (IPCC 1996), as agreed for use under the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. The National Greenhouse Accounts to be published in 2015 will adopt the GWPs contained in the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007), by international agreement. Quarterly Methodology and Growth Rates Emission estimates have been compiled by the Department using the estimation methodologies incorporated in the Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System (AGEIS) and documented in the National Inventory Report. The estimates are calculated using the latest national inventory data and indicators from external data sources (listed below). These data are used to determine growth rates, which are applied to infer quarterly emissions growth. Quarterly growth rates are calculated as the percentage change between the estimates for the previous quarter and the current quarter. Annual growth rates are calculated as the percentage change between the estimates for the twelve months to the end of the equivalent quarter last year, and the twelve months to the end of the current quarter. Best estimates of new abatement activities and emission profiles of new projects have been incorporated in the latest estimates for fugitive emissions from coal mining and oil and gas extraction. These estimates are progressively updated as improved data becomes available, such as from the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting system (NGERs). Recalculations Periodic recalculations of the quarterly emission estimates are undertaken as more complete and accurate information becomes available. The recalculations must comply with international guidelines, are estimated on a time series consistent basis and are subject to annual international expert review. September Quarter 2013 Recalculations since the June 2013 Quarterly Update have been minor. Emissions estimates for the transport, stationary energy and electricity sectors have been reduced, amounting to a total reduction of 1.1 Mt CO 2 -e or 0.2 per cent in the year to June 2013 and 0.8 Mt CO 2 -e or 0.1 per cent in the year to June These recalculations were largely the result of recalculations in quarterly growth rates published in external data sources and the refinement of 2012 inventory data in preparation for the April 2014 UNFCCC submission. Forthcoming recalculations Data reported by companies under the NGERs for the year will be available for incorporation into future Quarterly Updates. Recalculations are likely in activities subject to increasing abatement opportunities such as methane capture from underground coal mining, oil and gas extraction and landfills. 18 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

21 Recalculations in the next Quarterly Update may also result from improved facility data obtained under NGERs, where companies have been progressively moving to higher order methods involving facility level measurements rather than utilising a national or state based default approach. The uptake of higher order methods is evident in the fugitive emission estimation for open cut coal mines in NGER data and the trend is expected to continue. Additional changes will be implemented with the commencement of the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Future quarterly inventories will need to apply updated activities and accounting rules, including emissions estimates using revised Global Warming Potentials and estimates for the Article 3.4 activities; forest management, cropland management and grazing land management. Source Data Preliminary activity data are obtained under the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting system (NGERs) and from a range of publicly available sources, principally: ABARES Agricultural Commodities ABS Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product AEMO Market data extracted using NEM-Review software BITRE Domestic Totals & Top Routes airline_activity-time_series.aspx BREE Resources and Energy Quarterly (formerly available under Australian Mineral Statistics from ABARES, Australian Petroleum Statistics Department of the Environment Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System As additional data become available from the Department s reference sources these preliminary activity data will be overridden and the estimates of emissions revised before submission to the UNFCCC. Seasonal Adjustment Analysis The ABS defines seasonal adjustment as follows: A seasonally adjusted time-series is a time-series with seasonal component removed. This component shows a pattern over one year or less and is systemic or calendar related. SEASABS is the main seasonal adjustment tool used by the ABS. The actual quarterly data have been adjusted using SEASABS to remove the effects of seasonal factors. SEASABS analysis for the quarterly update uses a 5 term Henderson moving average. Trend Analysis The ABS defines trend adjustment as follows: A trend time-series is a seasonally adjusted time-series that has been further adjusted to remove irregular components. In the context of the quarterly data, examples of irregular components include extreme weather events (such as floods or fires). The trend series reflects the seasonally adjusted series with irregular components smoothed and provides the best indication of underlying movements in the inventory. Weather Normalisation The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are further adjusted to correct for the effects of variations around average seasonal temperatures. This process is termed weather normalisation, and is designed to provide a clearer indication of the underlying trends in the emissions data. Seasonal temperatures are an important predictor of emissions in Australia due to their influence on demand for electricity for heating and cooling (air conditioning). The seasonally adjusted series corrects for the regular effects of differences in average temperatures between seasons. The weather normalised series further corrects for fluctuations in average seasonal conditions. The weather normalisation methodology is based on the Bureau of Meteorology concept of heating and cooling degree days, and is applied to total emissions (excluding LULUCF) and the electricity sector. The methodology is described in detail in Section 7: Special Topic of the December 2011 edition of the Quarterly Update. Original Time Series The ABS defines an original time series as showing the actual movements in the data over time. AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

22 Quarterly Uncertainty For all sectors except LULUCF, the Department s assessment is that the 90% confidence interval for the national inventory is ±1% (i.e. there is a 90% probability that future revisions will be limited to ±1% of the current estimate). The estimates for LULUCF are subject to a greater level of uncertainty than the other sectors. This is due to the combined uncertainties in the detection of deforestation and forest harvesting events; the measurement and estimation of carbon stocks and sequestration rates in living biomass and soils; and the influence of weather and climate conditions. Sectoral Emission Sources Energy Electricity: Emissions from the combustion of fuel used to generate electricity for public use. Stationary energy excluding electricity: Energy industries: petroleum refinery, gas processing and solid fuel manufacturing (including coal mining and oil/gas extraction and processing); Manufacturing industries and construction: direct emissions from the combustion of fuel to provide energy used in manufacturing such as steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, food processing, non-energy mining and pulp and paper; and Other sectors: energy used by the commercial, institutional, residential sectors as well as fuel used by the agricultural, fishery and forestry equipment. This also includes all remaining fuel combustion emissions including those produced by combustion of engine lubricating oil and military fuel use. Transport: Road transport: passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, trucks, buses and motorcycles; Domestic air transport: commercial passenger and light aircraft on domestic routes using either aviation gasoline or jet kerosene. International air transport is reported but not included in Australia s total emissions (in line with international guidelines); Coastal shipping: domestic shipping and small craft. International shipping is reported but not included in Australia s total emissions (in line with international guidelines); and Rail transport: railways, but not electric rail, where fuel combustion is covered under the electricity sector. Fugitive emissions: Emissions, other than those attributable to energy use, from: Solid fuels: CO 2 and CH 4 from coal mining activities, post-mining and decommissioned mines. CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O from flaring associated with coal mining; and Oil and natural gas: exploration, extraction, production, processing and transportation of natural gas and oil. Includes leakage, evaporation and storage losses, flaring and venting of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O. Industrial Processes: Mineral products: CO 2 from cement clinker and lime production; the use of limestone and dolomite and other carbonates in industrial smelting and other processes; soda ash production and use; and magnesia production; Metal production: CO 2 and PFCs from aluminium smelting; CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O from iron and steel production; and CO 2 from the production of ferroalloys and other metals; Chemical industry: includes N 2 O from the production of nitric acid; CO 2, from ammonia production, acetylene use and the production of synthetic rutile and titanium dioxide; and CH 4 from polymers and other chemicals; Other production: CO 2 from the consumption of CO 2 in the food and drink industry and the use of sodium bicarbonate; and Consumption of halocarbons: HFCs, PFCs and SF 6 from refrigeration and air conditioning equipment; foam blowing; metered dose inhalers; fire extinguishers; solvent use; and, electrical equipment. Agriculture: CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from the consumption, decay or combustion of living and dead biomass: Enteric fermentation in livestock: emissions associated with microbial fermentation during digestion of feed by ruminant (mostly cattle and sheep) and some non-ruminant domestic livestock; Manure management: emissions associated with the decomposition of animal wastes while held in manure management systems; Rice cultivation: CH 4 emissions from anaerobic decay of organic material when rice fields are flooded; Agricultural soils: emissions associated with the application of fertilisers, crop residues and animal wastes to agricultural lands and the use of biological nitrogen fixing crops and pastures; 20 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

23 Prescribed burning of savannas: emissions associated with the burning of tropical savanna and temperate grasslands for pasture management, fuel reduction and prevention of wildfires; and Field burning of agricultural residues: emissions from Waste: field burning of cereal and other crop stubble, and the emissions from burning sugar cane prior to harvest. Emissions are predominantly CH 4. Small amounts of CO 2 and N 2 O are generated through incineration and the decomposition of human wastes respectively. The main sources are: Solid waste: emissions resulting from anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in landfills; Wastewater: emissions resulting from anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in sewerage facilities (including on-site systems such as septic tanks) during treatment and disposal of wastewater; Incineration: emissions resulting from the incineration of solvents and clinical waste; and Biological treatment of solid waste: emissions resulting from the anaerobic decomposition of organic material in composting and anaerobic digester facilities. LULUCF: Under the Kyoto Protocol (Article 3.3) accounting provisions, emissions from this sector for the commitment period are limited to: The estimates afforestation and reforestation are the accounting quantity taking into consideration the harvested forest sub-rule of the Kyoto Protocol. Under this accounting rule, debits resulting from harvesting during the first commitment period following afforestation and reforestation since 1990 shall not be greater than credits accounted for on that unit of land. In other words, whenever emissions on harvested land units are greater than the removals on those land units, a net balance of zero is assumed for those units of land. Estimates of emissions and removals from the Article 3.3 LULUCF activities are only provided for 1990 and for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ( ). Unlike other sectors, the accounting rules for Article 3.3 LULUCF activities differ between the initial assigned amount calculations and the commitment period. It is therefore not possible to present a consistent time series of emissions and removals for these activities. The 1990 estimate is the base year estimate used to calculate the initial assigned amount, which includes land use change (or forest conversion) as reported under the UNFCCC inventory and no emissions or removals from forestry. The estimates of emissions and removals in the LULUCF sectors are produced on a calendar year bases. Future Releases The December quarter 2013 Quarterly Update is planned for release in April Deforestation: emissions and removals from the direct human-induced removal of forest and replacement with pasture, crops or other uses on land that was forest on 1 January Emissions arise from the burning and decay of cleared vegetation, and changes in soil carbon from current and past events; and Afforestation and reforestation: emissions and removals (i.e. sinks) from forests established on agricultural land since Growth of the forests and regrowth on cleared lands provides a carbon sink, while emissions can arise from the application of lime-based products to these lands (CO 2 ) and from soil disturbance on the cleared lands (N 2 O). AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

24 Acronyms ABARES Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics AEMO Australian Energy Market Operator AGEIS Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System BITRE Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics BREE Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics CFC Chlorofluorocarbon DE Department of the Environment GDP Gross Domestic Product GWP Global Warming Potential LULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry NEM National Electricity Market NGERs National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting system UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Measurements The units used in this quarterly update inventory are: joules (J) grams (g) tonnes (t) metres (m) litres (L) watt hours (Wh) Standard metric prefixes used in this inventory are: kilo (k) = 10 3 (thousand) mega (M) = 10 6 (million) giga (G) = 10 9 tera (T) = peta (P) = In this report, emissions are expressed in Mt CO 2 -e, which represents millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent gas. 22 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

25 9. DATA TABLES Data Table 1A: Quarterly Emissions by Sector since , Original a Fiscal Year Quarter Electricity Energy Stationary energy excluding electricity Transport LULUCF b National Inventory Total Afforestation Fugitive Industrial (excluding and Emissions Processes Agriculture Waste LULUCF) Deforestation reforestation Total including LULUCF September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

26 Fiscal Year Quarter Electricity Energy Stationary energy excluding electricity Transport LULUCF b National Inventory Total Afforestation Fugitive Industrial (excluding and Emissions Processes Agriculture Waste LULUCF) Deforestation reforestation Total including LULUCF September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June a This table presents estimates of quarterly emissions by sector since , in original terms. b Under Kyoto Protocol accounting rules, emissions and removals for LULUCF activities can only be calculated for the Kyoto commitment period from 2008 onwards. UNFCCC reporting for land use change and afforestation and reforestation are presented prior to 2008 to provide a historical time series, although the two series are not strictly comparable. 24 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

27 Data Table 1B: Quarterly Emissions by Sector since , Seasonally Adjusted a Energy Fiscal Year Quarter Electricity a Stationary energy excluding electricity Transport Fugitive Emissions Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste National Inventory Total (excluding LULUCF) a September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

28 Energy Fiscal Year Quarter Electricity a Stationary energy excluding electricity Transport Fugitive Emissions Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste National Inventory Total (excluding LULUCF) a September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June a This table presents estimates of quarterly emissions by sector since , in seasonally adjusted terms. Estimates for the national inventory total and the electricity sector include weather normalisation, as described in Section 8: Technical Notes. Seasonally adjusted estimates for all other sectors are presented without weather normalisation. As a result, the national inventory total may differ from the sum of the columns. 26 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

29 Data Table 1C: Quarterly Emissions by Sector since , Trend a Energy Fiscal Year Quarter Electricity a Stationary energy excluding electricity Transport Fugitive Emissions Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste National Inventory Total (excluding LULUCF) a September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

30 Energy Fiscal Year Quarter Electricity a Stationary energy excluding electricity Transport Fugitive Emissions Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste National Inventory Total (excluding LULUCF) a September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June a This table presents estimates of quarterly emissions by sector since , in trend terms. Estimates for the national inventory total and the electricity sector include weather normalisation, as described in Section 8: Technical Notes. Trend estimates for all other sectors are presented without weather normalisation. As a result, the national inventory total may differ from the sum of the columns. 28 AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013

31 10. RELATED PUBLICATIONS AND RESOURCES Australia s National Greenhouse Accounts The following Departmental publications are all available online. National Inventory Report 2011 The three volumes comprising Australia s National Inventory Report 2011 were submitted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol in April The National Inventory Report 2011 contains national greenhouse gas emission estimates for the period compiled under the rules for reporting applicable to the UNFCCC. It also contains estimates for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, compiled using the reporting rules applicable to the Kyoto Protocol. Volume 1: Includes Australia s data for all sectors excluding Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) and Waste. State and Territory Greenhouse Gas Inventories : This document provides an overview of the latest available estimates of annual greenhouse gas emissions for Australia s States and Territories on a Kyoto accounting basis. It complements the National Inventory Report 2011 and the Quarterly Update. National Inventory by Economic Sector : Provides the latest annual information on national emissions on a Kyoto accounting basis, disaggregated by Australia-New Zealand Standard Industrial Classifications (ANZSIC). It complements the National Inventory Report 2011 and the Quarterly Update (which provides estimates of emissions classified according to process-based emission categories). Volume 2: Australia s data for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). Volume 3: Australia s data for Waste, recalculations, improvements, Kyoto Protocol accounting and conclusions. AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter

32 Other Related Resources Australia s Abatement Task and 2013 Emissions Projections: This report explains how Australia s abatement task has changed since Australia s Emissions Projections emissions data. Full Carbon Accounting Model: The Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) is the calculation engine which supports the estimation of carbon stock change on forest and agricultural systems. FullCAM can be downloaded from the Department s website. Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System: The Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System (AGEIS) centralises the Department s emissions estimation, emissions data management and reporting systems. AGEIS is being used to compile national and State and Territory inventories. The interactive web interface provides enhanced accessibility and transparency to Australia s greenhouse What the rest of the world is doing Other developed countries are also required to produce annual greenhouse gas inventories. More information regarding the reporting requirements and various international reports (including reports by Australia) are located online AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL GREENHOUSE ACCOUNTS Quarterly Update of Australia s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, September Quarter 2013