Technical Paper 1. Report on Birmingham s carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reduction target baseline

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1 Technical Paper 1 Report on Birmingham s carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions target baseline March 2013

2 Contents Page 1. Introduction 2 2. Executive Summary of Key Changes 3 3. Selection of the baseline year 4 4. Fixing the baseline target 4 5. The Carbon Emissions Target - Per capita or total emissions? 5 6. Progress since Target and carbon budget periods 7 8. Linear progression for 60% CO 2 emissions by 2027 against a 1990 baseline 8 9. Which sectors does the target cover? Monitoring and reporting Data revisions Next steps Conclusions 11 Further Information 12 Appendix 1: Breakdown of 1990 and 2005 baseline 13 Appendix 2: Carbon emissions datasets 14 1

3 1. Introduction 1.1 This is a Technical Report on the data and analytical methodology behind the setting of carbon targets for Birmingham, and the context for the inclusion in the Green Commission s Vision of a revised definition for the city. It has been informed by the Carbon Analysis work undertaken by DECC for the Green Commission in the summer of In 2008, the Birmingham Strategic Partnership (BeBirmingham - the former Local Strategic Partnership) established a city-wide per capita carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions target of 60% by 2026 against a 1990 baseline. This target was subsequently confirmed by Cabinet on March 2010, when the Birmingham Climate Change Action Plan was published. 1.3 The 1990 baseline for Birmingham s CO 2 emissions and CO 2 per capita was estimated 1 based on national averages and back-casting. However, this method neglects that local circumstances do not always reflect national averages. In addition, a lack of energy consumption data at local authority level for 1990 presents difficulties when trying to utilise the latest developments in tools designed for carbon scenario planning. 1.4 These issues were also brought to light in parallel with concerns raised in a report by Birmingham Audit published in June 2012 regarding progress on the 60% target agreed by BeBirmingham and the City Council. As such, a comprehensive review of Birmingham s CO 2 emissions target has been undertaken. 1.6 This report highlights the main issues relating to the carbon target and proposes amendments that will improve the ease and effectiveness of monitoring, reporting and planning. 1.7 It should be noted that this Technical Paper does not cover embedded carbon emissions arising from goods and services not made in Birmingham but consumed here. There are also certain other emissions which are excluded from the city s carbon emissions calculations in line with the definitions used by DECC in preparing local carbon emissions data (e.g. aviation and national transport through the city motorway and rail). 1.8 A Birmingham Carbon Roadmap is currently being produced for publication in the autumn of 2013 and is based on the amendments that are proposed in this report. The Birmingham Carbon Roadmap will review progress and explore the current plans and what future actions are required to ensure Birmingham achieves its CO 2 emissions target. 1 Arup Birmingham s Strategy for Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions by 2026 (2007) and Department for Energy and Climate Change Birmingham Carbon Plan Analysis, (August 2012) 2

4 2. Executive Summary of Key Changes The key changes proposed by this Technical Report for inclusion in the Green Commission s Vision are: 1. Adjust the baseline to Adopt carbon budget periods, update the target year to 2027 and consider interim targets to monitor progress more effectively. 3. Make the target more demanding by using absolute CO 2 in tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions rather than per capita. 4. Continue with the same ambition of a 60% from Continue to use the dataset published by DECC, titled Carbon dioxide emissions within the scope of influence of local authorities (previously NI 186). 6. Update progress annually when the most up to date data becomes available 7. Provide progress reports annually after the data is made available by DECC each August for two years previous. 3

5 3. Selection of the Baseline year 3.1 In 2007, Birmingham chose a 1990 baseline to align with the international agreement on the Kyoto Protocol and the resultant EU target of a 20% carbon by 2020 and the UK target of 34% by 2020 and 80% by National data for the 1990 baseline is available from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). 3.2 However, there is no historical local data available for that year. There have been attempts to back-cast national data and estimate Birmingham s baseline by Arup in 2007, which was commissioned by the City Council and BeBirmingham in 2007, and more recently by DECC for the Green Commission in summer However, this method neglects that local contexts do not always mirror national averages. Nor was the analysis able to accurately determine an energy usage breakdown which makes it difficult to run carbon scenarios for a 1990 baseline. This provides an inherent difficulty in determining a true CO 2 emissions baseline (absolute and per capita) and measuring progress. 3.3 Since 2007, government have made significant improvements to the availability of energy and carbon data below national level, and in new tools to develop carbon scenario plans. Local gas and electricity consumption, two of the main underlying datasets are available from Carbon emissions datasets were published by DECC to help local authorities respond to the former National Indicator 186; per capita CO 2 emissions in the LA area ( , now abolished). Two-thirds of authorities adopted this measure and the majority have therefore adopted a 2005 baseline for their CO 2 target. 3.4 Despite the demise of NI186 in 2010, DECC has continued to maintain the database which enables many local authorities to monitor their progress and measure the effectiveness of their local delivery plans aimed at reducing CO 2 emissions and ensuring they are well placed for the transition to a low carbon economy. This review presents an appropriate opportunity for Birmingham to use 2005 as a baseline to monitor the city s CO 2 target, using the latest data provided by DECC. 4. Fixing the Baseline target 4.1 It is important to assess the potential changes between 1990 and 2005 to establish future progress against the 2005 monitoring baseline. The best approach for doing this is to assess the level of change nationally and understand Birmingham s estimated proportion of national emissions in 1990 using available datasets. 2 2 There are limitations to this methodology including lack of understanding on carbon intensity for Birmingham and a lack of clear understanding of local circumstances on national averages across different sectors. It also does not factor in population growth between those periods. 4

6 4.2 Nationally, CO 2 emissions (which in 1990 accounted for 76% of the UK s greenhouse gas emissions) in 1990 totalled 590Mt 3 (covering energy supply, road transport, business, domestic). They reduced to 551Mt by 2005 which represents a 6.6% from Birmingham s average share of national emissions 2005 and was 1.164% 4. Applying this average to the 1990 national CO 2 total provides a local estimate of 6.87MtCO 2 for A 6.6% to account for the change nationally, provides a 6.4MtCO 2 figure for Birmingham in This aligns the Carbon dioxide emissions within the scope of influence of local authorities (previously NI 186) data from DECC which states that Birmingham s emissions were 6,422,940tCO 2 in Tracking the % target on a total emissions basis indicates that there should be a 57% CO 2 emissions against a 2005 baseline. 5. The Carbon Emissions Target - Per capita or total emissions? 5.1 Birmingham s original target was to achieve a 60% of CO 2 emissions per capita against a 1990 baseline. In using a per capita measure any growth in the city s population would mean that Birmingham could achieve its 60% per capita target, although total emissions would fall by less than 60%. 5.2 The table below indicates this more clearly, that using the 2005 baseline as a firm scenario, as a minimum there would be approximately 534,000tCO 2 more emissions using a per capita target rather than a total emissions one Target Overview 57% CO 2 total emissions 6,422,940tCO 2 on 2005 baseline 57% per capita 6.4tCO 2 per on person 2005 baseline (* includes projected population growth) Baseline 2027 Target CO 2 emissions Per capita (tco 2 ) 2,749,600tCO 2 (57.2%) 2.8tCO 2 per person* See 2027 target 3,283,879tCO 2 2.3tCO 2 per person* See 2027 target 5.3 Therefore, the total CO 2 emissions target provides the most challenging route. And also reflects the fundamental importance of the carbon target is to reduce the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere. A total emissions target will do this more effectively than a per capita target and this is the sort of approach to be expected of a leading green city. The city would effectively be 3 DECC Statistical Release: 2010 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures 4 Emissions within the scope of influence of Local Authorities for

7 neglecting its environmental responsibility and burdening the efforts of the UK carbon target total s if it continued to strive for a per capita target. 5.4 The Green Commission has set a vision of Birmingham becoming a leading green city. Therefore, it is recommended that the CO 2 target should be set as a in total CO 2 emissions. This is an ambitious focus given the planned population growth of up to 150,000 extra people from and an increase in households by around 80,000 over this period, outlined in the Birmingham Development Plan consultation. However, this reinforces the intention of the city to grow more sustainably through better development and improved planning policy, which should instigate a positive feedback on the existing city infrastructure and sectors responsible for current CO 2 emissions. 5.5 The Birmingham Development Plan states: The City s growth will be pursued in the most sustainable way practicable reducing the City s carbon footprint. New development will need to be built to the highest sustainability standards, helping to generate wider benefits in terms of the quality of the environment and carbon, be energy efficient, using renewable resources, and minimising the production of waste. 7 It will still be necessary to keep track of per capita emissions but the main target is on a total CO 2 emissions. 6. Progress since Birmingham s CO 2 emissions reduced by 10.1% between 2005 and 2010, which represents 16% since There has been a 12.5% per capita (from 2005) over the same period due to the growth in population by 33,400 people. The largest decrease occurred in 2009 when the city recorded a 13.5% decrease in total CO 2 emissions and a 15.6% decrease per capita. 6.2 Commentators mostly agree that the economic downturn and the resulting decrease in activity and changes in consumer behaviour are key causes for the sudden drop. The increase again in 2010 was due to the year being on average the coldest year since 1987 which lead to an increase in the use of natural gas for space heating. The encouraging message is that Birmingham s emissions are on a downwards trend over the five year period. 6.3 The annual changes will tend to fluctuate due to such external factors weather and the state of the economy. It is recommended that by changing to a five-yearly carbon budget planning and monitoring process that a focus on the necessary carbon measures can be achieved. (See section 7) DECC Figures 23 August 2012 Year Industry and Commercial Domestic Road Transport Total emissions tonnes CO2 Total tonnes CO2 % CO2 emissions Population Per capita emissions Per capita % per capita ,774,370 2,311,480 1,337,090 6,422,940 N/A N/A N/A N/A ,694,620 2,316,160 1,317,180 6,327,960 94, % % ,612,130 2,248,820 1,336,680 6,197, , % % 5 Census shows increase in population of the West Midlands Page 2, Birmingham Development Plan Options Consultation 7 Page 5, Birmingham Development Plan Options Consultation 6

8 2008 2,718,100 2,241,110 1,298,540 6,257, , % % ,294,180 2,002,580 1,258,530 5,555, , % % ,401,110 2,133,830 1,242,240 5,777, , % % CO 2 emissions totals by sector tonnes of CO2 emissions 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Road Transport Domestic Industry and Commercial Year CO 2 emissions against 2005 baseline - total emissions and per capita Percentage on % 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Year % CO2 emissions % per capita 7. Target and carbon budget periods 7.1 In addition to the overall target there is an expectation that interim targets are set annually to monitor progress and performance. However, the predicament with setting % targets annually is that in reality there will be year-on-year fluctuations caused by extenuating factors rather than a straight-line decrease. This is evident in the available data, for example from there was a significant decline in total CO 2 emissions and per capita emissions (see 6.1), which then rose again in

9 7.2 To overcome the predicament of having year-on-year targets missed due to extenuating fluctuations, Parliament adopted Carbon Budgets in the Climate Change Act Birmingham could adopt a similar Carbon Budget framework which would outline % targets over a period of time. This will also ensure that there is alignment between national and local policy and action: Carbon Budget 1: Carbon Budget 2: Carbon Budget 3: Carbon Budget 4: This means that the 57% target for Birmingham s carbon emissions against a baseline of 2005 now needs to be met by 2027, rather than 2026 to coincide with the end of the fourth carbon budget period. 7.4 Using carbon budgets will not only allow for closer monitoring of target progress but also provide some confidence to businesses looking to invest in Birmingham as a leading green city. DECC state that by setting the trajectory to our 2020 and 2050 targets through carbon budgets, we can provide a clear, credible, long-term framework for the move to a low-carbon UK economy, and give businesses and individuals the direction and certainty they need to play their part. 7.5 The Birmingham Carbon Roadmap will provide detail on actions to achieve these interim targets and measure the estimated impact of investment on CO 2 emissions upto Linear progression for 60% CO 2 emissions by 2027 against a 1990 baseline 57% in CO2 emissions by 2027 against 2005 baseline including estimated s from 1990 baseline tonnes CO2 emissions 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000, MtCO MtCO 2 Estimated 1990 baseline and 6.6% Achieved tco2 emissions Emissions tco2 target by ,000, Year 8.1 Birmingham s CO 2 emissions target is 2,749,600tCO 2 by 2027 against a 1990 baseline. 8.2 The emissions target line has been extrapolated to 2027 from the latest data for 2010 to reach the 60% target. In reality the achieved tco 2 emissions will fluctuate above and below the target line. 8

10 8.3 See Appendix 1 for a full breakdown of this data. 9. Which sectors does the target cover? 9.1 Even though NI186 is no longer in place, the indicator is used widely to underpin local carbon abatement strategies and monitor progress for those participating in the Covenant of Mayors 8. The dataset which local authorities reported against has been retained to ensure consistency and is released by DECC each August. A breakdown of carbon emissions data is provided below as an indication of the areas of responsibility for local authorities in carbon. Figure 1: Carbon emissions datasets, Carbon Descent, February The NI186 dataset is a subset of the LACO 2 9 emissions which covers CO 2 emissions only. It includes emissions from the domestic, commercial and industrial, and transport sectors within a local authority area. This set excludes emissions from sources which it is felt that local authorities have minimal influence over including emissions from motorways, diesel rail, emissions covered under European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EUETS) besides point source electricity, and Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry 10 (LULUCF). This set of data is used in local authorities carbon baselines and to report progress. Since the end of NI186 this data is referred to by DECC as Carbon dioxide emissions within the scope of influence of local authorities (previously NI 186). It can be freely accessed online. (See Further Information, page 11). 8 The Covenant of Mayors is the mainstream European movement involving local and regional authorities, voluntarily committing to increasing energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sources on their territories. By their commitment, Covenant signatories aim to meet and exceed the European Union 20% CO 2 objective by Activities in the LULUCF sector can provide a relatively cost-effective way of offsetting emissions, either by increasing the removals of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere (e.g. by planting trees or managing forests), or by reducing emissions (e.g. by curbing deforestation). It may often be difficult to estimate greenhouse gas removals and emissions resulting from activities of LULUCF. LULUCF relates to Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol 9

11 9.3 A full breakdown of the different components of Figure 1 is available in Appendix Monitoring and reporting 10.1 Local authorities receive data on their CO 2 emissions each August, for two years previous. The delay is caused by the complex process required to extract localised data The full UK Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions by which the UK reports to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is the top priority for the UK reflecting the need to meet international reporting obligations. This is completed at a 13 month lag. After this, the reallocation of emissions from source to end-user sector is carried out. Once this is complete, the Local Authority data can be produced. This is a complex mapping process, involving the data sources used in the preparation of the full UK inventory, as well as additional sources, including end-user inventories, road transport data and local energy data. The modelling process, data quality checking and preparation of the results for publication take up to August each year. This means that the most recent data published on 23 August 2012 gave local authorities the latest indication of carbon emissions within their scope of influence for This means that it is difficult to assess in the short term, the direct attribution and impact of actions to reduce carbon emissions due to the time lag from carrying out the activity to understanding the impact on carbon emissions across sectors. 11. Data revisions 11.1 The inventory is also revised annually to incorporate both new data and improvements in the underlying methodology. In order to ensure that historic data is consistent and comparable with the most recent data, estimates for previous years must also be revised Birmingham should use the latest data released by DECC including updates to previous years as this provides the most accurate data and will provide the best record of progress. It is important that the energy data behind the CO 2 emissions is also provided to local authorities by DECC so that they can continue to develop scenarios for s. 12. Next steps 12.1 Agree the amendments to Birmingham s CO 2 emissions target as summarised in within this report Publish Birmingham s Carbon Roadmap by autumn 2013 to highlight how Birmingham will achieve its carbon target with a mix of local and national policy and action. 10

12 13. Conclusions Set the ambition of a 60% total CO 2 emissions target by 2027 against a 1990 baseline, using 2005 as a monitoring baseline Using a 2005 monitoring baseline will allow for a clear view of Birmingham s carbon emissions progress The detailed data behind the 2005 baseline can be used data to develop detailed carbon scenarios, which were not possible against a 1990 baseline As the majority of other UK local authorities use 2005 it will be possible to compare progress across the country A total carbon emissions target means Birmingham must ensure that growth in population does not adversely impact its emissions. Growth must be sustainable and typify how a leading green city progresses and contribute to the national CO 2 targets. A per capita target would effectively mask increases in emissions caused by increased population The CO 2 target for 2027 against a 2005 baseline is equivalent to 57% and has been established by applying validated averages and tracking progress Adopting the carbon budget periods will enable improved monitoring and planning of short term progress leading upto It will depict true progress over a period of time rather than false success caused by extenuating circumstances, for example the dip in 2008/9 believed to be caused by the economic downturn Birmingham is clear what its baseline is, where its responsibilities lie for carbon and is now able to develop a clear Birmingham Carbon Roadmap that demonstrates the impact and connections between national and local actions. 11

13 Further information Birmingham Development Plan Options Consultation Carbon Budgets DECC Statistics DECC Frequently Asked Questions - Carbon dioxide statistics national-statistics-on-carbon-dioxide-e.pdf Kyoto Protocol Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Statistical Release: 2010 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures uk-greenhouse-gas-emissi.pdf UK emissions statistics: UK Local Authority Carbon Emissions Data - Emissions within the scope of influence of Local Authorities for Page link: aco2.aspx Direct database link: 4/6222-local-and-regional-co2-emissions-estimates-for-200.xls Contact: Sandy Taylor, Head of Climate Change and Environment Richard Rees, Strategic Energy Delivery Officer 12

14 Appendix 1 Target and carbon budget periods This table is further information for section 8. It provides detail on: a) Birmingham s estimated 1990 baseline and linear to 2005 by 6.6%. b) Actual data for c) The CO2 emissions s required to achieve the 60% target on a 2005 baseline. d) An equivalent target from 60% against 1990 to 57% against 2005 by Year Estimated 1990 baseline and 6.6% Achieved tco2 emissions Emissions tco2 target by 2027 % on 1990 % on ,874, ,843, % ,813, % ,783, % ,753, % ,723, % ,693, % ,663, % ,633, % ,603, % ,573, % ,543, % ,513, % ,483, % ,453, % ,422,940 6,422, % ,327, % 1.5% ,197, % 3.5% ,257, % 2.6% ,555, % 13.5% ,777,180 5,777, % 10.1% ,599, % 12.8% ,420, % 15.6% ,242, % 18.4% ,064, % 21.1% ,886, % 23.9% ,708, % 26.7% ,530, % 29.5% ,352, % 32.2% ,174, % 35.0% ,996, % 37.8% ,818, % 40.6% ,640, % 43.3% ,461, % 46.1% ,283, % 48.9% ,105, % 51.6% ,927, % 54.4% ,749, % 57.2% 13

15 Appendix 2 Carbon emissions datasets. The dotted box on the right contains all emissions that are covered by the Climate Change Acts 34% target for the third budget period. The figure shows that international shipping, international aviation, and embedded emissions (in the way of imports) are not covered under the 34% target. This figure shows NI186 as a sub set of the LACO 2 data set 11. Below the LACO 2 data set is the corresponding LACO 2 equivalents. The figure highlights the issue of embodied energy/co 2 of imports and exports, the need for international cooperation in tackling emissions such as International shipping and Aviation, and Local Authorities responsibilities in the broader context. The diagram is not to scale. NI186 This dataset is a subset of the LACO 2 emissions which covers CO 2 emissions only. This set of emissions has been reduced to exclude emissions from sources which it is felt that LAs have minimal influence over. The omitted locally produced emissions are motorways, diesel rail, emissions covered under European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EUETS) besides point source electricity, and Land Use and Land Use Change (LULUC). This set of data is used in local authorities carbon baseline and to report progress. Since the end of NI186 this data set is referred to by DECC as Carbon dioxide emissions within the scope of influence of local authorities (previously NI 186). LACO 2 This data set covers all the emissions in the NI186 plus motorways, diesel rail, EUETS, and LULUC. It is a CO 2 only data set so does not contain any of the other six green house gasses (CO 2 equivalents) such as methane and nitrous oxide. Approximately 70% of the EUETS emissions are covered in the NI186 emissions under domestic, commercial and industrial point source electricity usage. The remaining 30% is included in LACO 2 and refers to other large emitters participating under the EUETS. LACO 2 Equivalents This is the part of the local emissions which are not included in the above two datasets. There are a few reasons for this. Firstly

16 the CO 2 component makes up a large majority of the emissions reported under the above two indicators, secondly, in general when CO 2 emissions are reduced through energy efficiency, energy conservation, or renewable energy generation, the equivalents are reduced, and finally, these emissions require more effort to measure than CO 2 alone. Aviation The UK national atmospheric emissions inventory shows that emissions from domestic and international aviation assigned to the UK (on the basis of bunker fuel sales) accounted for some 5.5% of UK CO 2 emissions in % of these emissions will now be covered under the EU ETS as of Domestic Aviation So far the EUETS has set a commitment of 5% from 2013 onwards for both domestic and international aviation. The Low Carbon Transition Plan (LCTP) states the Government announced a target to reduce UK aviation carbon dioxide emissions to below 2005 levels by 2050, despite forecast growth in passenger demand. This target is the only one of its kind anywhere in the world, and implies that aviation will be paying a lot for emissions to be abated elsewhere in the EUETS. International Aviation International aviation is not covered under the Carbon Budgets. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has been given the responsibility to tackle greenhouse gas emissions from aviation. In October 2010 an historic agreement was reached between the 190 contracting states (including UK) to cap international aviation emissions at 2020 levels. Along with this 2020 cap, it has been agreed that an improvement to fuel efficiency of 2% per year will be achieved. Europe has further committed both domestic and international aviation to the EUETS scheme. Under this scheme the cap to be applied to the aviation sector within the EUETS in 2012 will be 97% of average annual aviation CO 2 emissions in 2004, 2005 and 2006, and from 2013 onwards the cap is set at 95% of average emissions over these years. International Shipping According to the LCTP, flights and journeys by sea that begin in the UK but end in a foreign country (and vice versa) are classed as international aviation and international shipping and are not counted in our carbon budgets and emissions s targets for the time being, due to the lack of a globally agreed methodology to allocate responsibility for these journeys to individual countries. Imports versus Exports The embodied carbon in imports to the UK should arguably be added to UK s official carbon footprint. Britain s footprint is 11 tons CO 2 e per year per person. DEFRA reports that the embodied carbon in imports is approximately 6.2 tons CO 2 e per year per person. Another estimate, by the science journal Nature, reported that in 2001 imported embodied emissions in the UK accounted for approximately 37% of UK emissions while the embodied CO 2 e of exports was approximately 22%. This gap has definitely increased over the past 9 years through increased trade with China Overview written by Carbon Descent, February

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