The East Coast/West Coast picture clarifies or does it?

Transcription

1 The East Coast/West Coast picture clarifies or does it? Dr. University of California at Berkeley TPM Conference

2 The Status Quo The lion s share of imports from Asia to Continental USA follow one of three types of supply chains: Push Push-Pull 3[4][5] Corners Push-Pull all-at-san-pedro-bay 2

3 Push Supply-Chain Strategy 3

4 Push-Pull Supply Chain All at San Pedro Bay Potential port of entry Regional distribution center 4

5 Push-Pull Supply Chain Four Corners 5

6 Cheap, Moderate and Expensive Imports Value Distribution of 2005 Asia USA Waterborne Containerized Imports % Percentage of Total TEUs 90.00% 25% Expensive Imports 80.00% 50% Moderate-value Imports 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 25% Inexpensive Imports 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Source: WTA, PIERS, PMA > Declared Value ($ per cu. ft.) 6

7 Each Kind of Supply Chain is Best for Some Goods Push Nation-wide distribution of inexpensive goods and one-time-sale goods by large retailers (~13.5%) Push-Pull 3, 4 or Push-Pull All at 5 Corners San Pedro Bay Nation-wide distribution of moderate-value goods by large retailers (~27%) Nation-wide distribution of expensive goods imported by large OEMs (~13.5%) Small and regional importers (~46%) 7

8 But the mix of chains is evolving Value Distribution of Asia USA Containerized Imports, 2005 Actual vs. After 15% Increase in Values % 90.00% Percentage of Total TEUs 80.00% 32% Expensive Imports 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 49% Moderate-value Imports 40.00% 30.00% 19% Inexpensive Imports 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% > Declared Value ($ per cu. ft.) 8

9 OK, So What Effect Will the Canal Expansion Have? West Coast Store-Door, IPI and All-Water are services are sold by the Lines as separate services. Importers set up their supply chains based on prices for these services and consideration of their inventory economics. So the effect of the Canal expansion is really a question of what will happen to the differential between all-water and West-Coast-port-of-entry rates. 9

10 A What-If Analysis season confidential rates 2005 distribution of declared values and importer shares 2008 distribution of purchasing power For each of top 83 importers, choose supply chains minimizing total inventory + transportation costs For 19 generic proxy importers, choose leastcost Push supply chain Total up the imports by port and by Coast 10

11 A What-If Analysis (cont.) Predicted Shares of Trans Pacific Asia USA Imports as a Function of the Differential in All Water vs. West Coast Rates Share of Containerized Trans Pacific Asia USA Imports 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% West Coast Share 55% All Water Share 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Normalized All Water Rates ( = 100%) 11

12 A What-If Analysis (cont.) Share of Containerized Trans Pacific Asia USA Imports Predicted Shares of Trans Pacific Asia USA Imports as a Function of the Differential in All Water vs. West Coast Rates 0.5 All_Water 0.45 WC_IPI USA_WC_TL WC_Local Normalized All Water Rates ( = 100%) 12

13 So What s Going to Happen? Forecasting is hard. Especially about the future. A 10% rate differential one way or the other would make a huge difference: If All-water rates go down 10% relative to WC rates, then Panama Canal volume will be up 31% while West Coast ports will be down 14% If All-water rates go up 10%, then Panama Canal volume will be down 20% while West Coast ports will be up 9% If the (relative) rates do move, I predict two or three years of turbulence before a new equilibrium is reached. 13