Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics An Example: Advanced Sales & Operations Planning

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1 Arnold Mark Wells 12 April 2015 Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics An Example: Advanced Sales & Operations Planning

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3 Good Decisions Are Integrated Decisions Requires an understanding of inter-related tradeoffs, driving toward bottom-line metrics with cause/effect accountability. Sales & Operations Planning (or Integrated Business Planning) should be an example of this, but it is more easily said than done! Marketing Inventory Plan Sales Plan Production Plan Logistics Plan Financial Plan 3

4 Strategic S&OP Integrated decisions result in aligned execution R&D Plan Marketing Plan Capital Plan Inventory Plan Sales Plan Production Plan Logistics Plan Financial Plan Procurement Plan Coordinated decisions lead to coordinated execution and greater business performance 4

5 Components of IBM Advanced S&OP Solution Drive additional differentiation and value for S&OP Technology Delivers: TRANSLATION, ACCURACY & VELOCITY Collaborative, Multidimensional Foundation Predictive Analytics Prescriptive Analytics Advanced S&OP Import and review master & transaction data on products and production facilities. Multi-dimensional views and translation Familiar Excel-like UI Create what-if scenarios to establish range of outcomes to consider Predict demand in your hierarchies (e.g. product, geography, channel, etc.) Determine and understand key drivers that affect demand such as seasons, promotions, market sentiment. Combine quantitative and qualitative perspectives Determine best actions for each scenario or outcome Consider real world constraints. Optimize tradeoffs for revenue, margin and working capital goals Measurable global improvements on business process Operational action plans that tie to strategy Scenario analysis to ensure resilient decisions and understand agility 5

6 What s Important about Translation, Accuracy and Velocity? Velocity and accuracy are only meaningful, if they are immediately translated into the terms of each stakeholder. Without velocity and accuracy, translation is worse than useless. 6

7 IBM Institute for Business Value Digital operations transform the physical Findings: Analytics + real-time signals = perpetual planning to optimize value chain flows Perpetual planning enables more accurate demand and supply knowledge, as well as more accurate production and assembly status that can lower processing and inventory carrying costs. 7

8 Advanced S&OP for Your Needs Quantitative Forecast: Determine demand trends, seasonality and key correlations Qualitative Demand Plan: Layer in product plans, promotions, sales force insights Instantly translate from units to currency, or from item and geo to markets, brands and channels Financial Analysis and Management Decision Pro-forma financial impact of different scenarios and strategies Operations Action Plan: Optimizing tradeoffs among revenue, margin and working capital, considering real world constraints 8

9 Multi-dimensional views Quantitative forecast based on history using the best of a wide variety of techniques 9

10 Qualitative adjustment to the forecast based on sales knowledge and strategy 10

11 Adjustments to the collaborative demand plan from product management and marketing based on introduction of new model in Japan 11

12 Optimized allocation of supply to demand based on existing capacity plan shows gaps between demand and supply 12

13 Planned plant capacities 13

14 Decision to increase capacity proportionately across plants 14

15 Based on strategic decision to increase capacity in Jan and Feb, optimized allocation of supply now meets projected demand 15

16 Powerful visualization to compare alternative plans 16

17 Pro forma financial impact on income statement of various decision sets 17

18 Pro forma financial impact on cash flow of various decision sets 18

19 Advanced S&OP for Your Needs Quantitative Forecast: Determine demand trends, seasonality and key correlations Qualitative Demand Plan: Layer in product plans, promotions, sales force insights Instantly translate from units to currency, or from item and geo to markets, brands and channels Financial Analysis and Management Decision Pro-forma financial impact of different scenarios and strategies Operations Action Plan: Optimizing tradeoffs among revenue, margin and working capital, considering real world constraints 19

20 Available soon for you to try it yourself (analyticszone.com) 20

21 Who s Using IBM Advanced Analytics to Achieve Advanced S&OP Bicycle manufacturer Global automotive manufacturer Semi-conductor manufacturer Paper manufacturer Etc. IBM provides the most powerful predictive and prescriptive accuracy with the immediacy and simplicity demanded by executives responsible for keeping their organizations ahead of the competition. 21

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23 Legal Disclaimer IBM Corporation All Rights Reserved. The information contained in this publication is provided for informational purposes only. While efforts were made to verify the completeness and accuracy of the information contained in this publication, it is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind, express or implied. In addition, this information is based on IBM s current product plans and strategy, which are subject to change by IBM without notice. IBM shall not be responsible for any damages arising out of the use of, or otherwise related to, this publication or any other materials. Nothing contained in this publication is intended to, nor shall have the effect of, creating any warranties or representations from IBM or its suppliers or licensors, or altering the terms and conditions of the applicable license agreement governing the use of IBM software. References in this presentation to IBM products, programs, or services do not imply that they will be available in all countries in which IBM operates. Product release dates and/or capabilities referenced in this presentation may change at any time at IBM s sole discretion based on market opportunities or other factors, and are not intended to be a commitment to future product or feature availability in any way. Nothing contained in these materials is intended to, nor shall have the effect of, stating or implying that any activities undertaken by you will result in any specific sales, revenue growth or other results. IBM and the IBM logo are trademarks of International Business Machines Corporation in the United States, other countries, or both. 24