UNWTO General Assembly 19 th Session. Gyeongju Republic of Korea 10 October 2011

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Abraham Logan
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1 UNWTO General Assembly 19 th Session Gyeongju Republic of Korea 1 October 211

2 million Tourism 22 Vision vs. actual trend World International tourist arrivals 1, 1,4 1,2 1, 8 Tourism 22 Vision forecast Actual * mn 881 mn 94 mn Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

1,2 1, 8 Tourism 22 Vision forecast Actual 1995-21* 4

3 Tourism Towards 23 A broad research project in continuation of UNWTO s work in the area of long-term forecasting initiated in the 199s. Objectives: Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans Provide a global reference on tourism future development Reinforce UNWTO s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and also cost of transport

tourism-related subjects Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two

4 Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace International tourism, World 12 International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year /' /'84 199/' /'94 2/'99 25/'4 21/'9 215/'14 22/'19 225/'24 23/'29

over previous year 1 1 9 9 9 8 4 2 3 1 4 3 7 7 3 4 4 5 3 4 8 3 7 2 7-2 -2-4

5 International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million

change over previous year, million 8 7 5 58 49 45 45 4 2 8 4 25 13 1 3 27

6 International tourist arrivals to reach 1.8 billion by 23 International tourism, World 2, International Tourist Arrivals, million 1,75 1,5 1,25 1,

7 Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 215 Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies 1,25 International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, emerging economies 75 5 advanced economies

International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, emerging economies

8 Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million 8 Europe 7 5 Asia and the Pacific Americas Middle East Africa

Tourist Arrivals, million 8 Europe 7 5 Asia and the Pacific 4

9 Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa to increase their shares 198 Africa 3% Middle East 3% Americas 23% Asia and the Pacific 8% Americas 1% 21 Middle East % Asia and the Pacific 22% Europe 3% Africa 5% Americas 14% 23 Asia and the Pacific 3% Europe 51% Middle East 8% Africa 7% Europe 41%

1% 21 Middle East % Asia and the Pacific 22% Europe 3% Africa 5% Americas

10 North-East Asia will be the most visited subregion in 23

11 Europe continues to lead in international arrivals received per 1 of population

12 No major change in share by purpose of visit International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, 9 Leisure, recreation and holidays VFR, health, religion, other Business and professional

Leisure, recreation and holidays 8 7 5 VFR, health, religion, other

13 Air transport will continue to increase market share, but at a slower pace International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, by air 75 over surface

transport International Tourist Arrivals, million 1, by

14 Travel between regions continues to grow slightly faster than within the same region International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % within same region between regions

origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, % 1 9 8 7 within same

15 Asia and the Pacific will also be the outbound region that grows most Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East

generated, million 9 8 198 1995 21 23 832 7 5 541 59 4 3 2 1 38 25 24 1

16 Outbound tourism participation is highest in Europe and still low in Asia and the Pacific Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 1 population World Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East

generated per 1 population 1 9 8 7 198 1995 21 23 89 57 5 4 3 3 2 1 9 14 22 1 2 3

17 What if assumptions change? Tourism Towards 23: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 Actual data Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3) Central projection Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2) A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1) 1,

million 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 Actual data 198-21 Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3) Central

18 One-Page Tourism Towards 23 Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (198 22) to 3.3% (21 23), as a result of four factors: The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers Lower GDP growth, as economies mature A lower elasticity of travel to GDP A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones Tourism Towards 23 shows that there is still a substantial potential for further expansion in coming decades. Established as well as new destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they do shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources. Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive

shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones Tourism Towards 23 shows that there is still a substantial potential for further expansion in coming decades.

19 Tourism towards 23 / Global Overview Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Strong peak season anticipated for international tourism

Strong peak season anticipated for international tourism Volume 12 June 201 Contents Inbound tourism: short-term trends 201 Regional results 7 UNWTO s Panel of Tourism Experts 11 Air transport booking trends Forwardkeys 13 Statistical Annex Annex-1 to Annex-3