China Energy Outlook ( )
|
|
- Dominick Cannon
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 China Energy Outlook ( ) In the early September 2015, my research team of the annual World Energy China Outlook a major innovation project of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) concluded its interim report. We employ both Current Policies Scenario (CPS, i.e. a set of policies released during our research and their implications) and Eco-friendly Energy Strategy (EES, i.e. our recommended scenario with certain assumptions) when conducting our Outlook. We believe that current policies are well oriented since major intended targets (including building up of a well-off society by 2020) would be met. However, some associated uncertainties in the structural adjustment and reform, energy efficiency enhancement and energy saving remain. Therefore, an expected trajectory of energy transition may not be absolute, risk-free and so against higher economic growth. We argue comparing with the CPS that the energy transition could also come up with a pattern shift featured with lower economic growth as a natural trajectory, together with repositioning of coal, oil, and gas sectors in the final consumption ends, debottlenecking of non-fossil fuels, and justifying the ties between energy saving and CO 2 emission reduction. Therefore, we recommend our EES scenario that suggests and pursues a new economic development pattern and dynamics with increasing quality of growth, coupled with an optimized energy system, higher efficiency and lower-carbon development. This leads to eight insights or designated trends towards energy transition indicating a fact that current policies are not only achievable but also would be realized earlier under our recommendations into Xiaojie Xu Chief Fellow, World Energy Chinese Academy of Social Sciences * * * Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 1
2 1. Energy Demand Could Reach Its Plateau in 2020 and Start to Decouple from Economic Growth Our research indicates that energy demand in the country will continue to grow at a rate nearing 2 percent from 2015 (30.21 mtoe) to 2030 (40.46 mtoe) under the CPS, however, it could otherwise reach its plateau (33.80 mtoe) in 2020 and onwards until 2030 (33.94 mtoe) due to deepening structural change and efficiency enhancement against slowdown of economic growth. Therefore, the total primary energy demand under our recommended scenario would be 6.43 mtoe lower than that under CPS in From the perspective of energy demand elasticity, the closer link between energy demand growth and economic growth could be relaxed after 2025 reflecting a moderate slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in favor of energy-saving, structural reform and energy efficiency. Eventually, a decoupling between energy demand and economic growth could be witnessed from 2030 onwards Mtoe EES Energy Demand EES Energy Demand Elasticity CPS Energy Demand CPS Energy Demand Elasticity Figure 1: Energy Consumption vs. Economy Growth 2. Electricity Generation Could Slow Down at Pace While Societal Electrification Is Improved Significantly We believe that both total electricity generation in giga watts and its elastic modulus continue to be upwards steadily, whereas electrification (electricity use in final consumption fields) increases accordingly under the CPS. By contrast, under the EES, although both total Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 2
3 electricity generation capacity and its elastic modulus are lower though, astonishing enough, the level of electrification proves to be higher than that under CPS. So would the application of electricity be widely spread out in the final use, rendering final end of energy system cleaner, more environmentally-friendly, and sustainable. This helps build up a low-carbon society, new lifestyle and happiness with brand of Beauty China TWh % 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% EES Power Generation EES Power in Final Energy Use CPS Power Generation CPS Power in Final Energy Use Figure 2: Electricity Generation vs. Electrification 3. Clean and Efficient Coal Use Contributes To Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction a Great Deal Coal use is a crucial to energy transition in China. Thanks to new realities and tendencies described above, coal demand could be reaching its plateau in at about 3.1 billion tons of coal equivalent (tce) under CPS, whereas it could otherwise be at its peak at 2.9 billion tce before declining thereafter under EES. Accordingly, the share of coal in the total energy consumption mix would decline, year on year, standing at below 60 percent in 2020 and nearly 50 percent in 2030 under CPS. By contrast, the share of coal demand could drop below 44 percent in 2030 under EES, an approximate 7 percent difference to the CPS. Again, since the slowdown in coal demand is obviously envisioned, there would be bigger resilience for an increase in clean and efficient use of other types of energy sources. Please note that coal sources used for power generation have tended to increase over the years while coal used in the final consumption (especially residential and industrial fields) Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 3
4 has shrunk. The both constitute a trade-off interaction. With this dynamic that the share of coal for power generation increases at a faster pace in EES than that of CPS, dirty coal could be boiled cleaner, being a much bigger contributor to the energy transition % % 40% % % 10% 0 Mtoe % EES Coal Demand EES Coal in Final Energy Demand CPS Coal in Final Energy Demand CPS Coal Demand EES Coal used for Power CPS Coal used for Power Figure 3: Coal Outlook Under Two Scenarios 4. The Dependence On Foreign Oil and Gas Could Be Lower Through Systematic Optimization We argue that oil prices were low prior to 2020 (the Brent crude in the range of dollars per barrel). Under this circumstance, both scenarios require an increase in dependence on foreign oil and gas to China, accordingly. The dependence on foreign oil will increase steadily from percent in 2015 to above 63 percent in 2020 and will maintain that level until 2030 under CPS, taking into account the potential substitute of oil fuels by coal lique faction, electric vehicles and LNG transportation. By contrast, under the EES, it will also maintain the level at percent in 2020 and then fall to 59 percent in The difference lies in the way in which oil is factored into the energy optimization process and the implementing of the energy-saving measures under the EES. We estimate that the amount of substitution fuels could be more than 50 million tons in 2020 and higher, resulting in an effective decrease in oil imports. The dynamic optimization is also applicable to decrease the dependency on foreign gas as well. Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 4
5 Based on our latest review on natural gas, the anticipated growth of gas demand should be lower than the estimated double-digit rate, while gas imports would be under serious pressure (i.e., facing possible surplus of supplies) somehow until gas utilization is justified in % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% EES Oil Foreign Dependency CPS Oil Foreign Dependency EES Gas Foreign Dependency CPS Gas Foreign Dependency Figure 4: Comparative Dependencies Of Foreign Oil and Gas 5. The Targeted Share Of Non-fossil Fuels Might Come Earlier The share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption and its proportion in power generation capacity increases every year in both scenarios. Specifically under CPS, non-fossil fuels account for a lower share and a slow increase, although it will nonetheless reach the policy objective, i.e. around 20 percent in 2030 as agreed with the US. Comparatively, the share of non-fossil fuels could be increased rapidly in our EES circumstance, reaching 24 percent in 2030, indicating that the 20 percent policy objective can be realized four years ahead of time under the EES if managed in an unconventional manner. Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 5
6 45.00% 35.00% 25.00% 15.00% 5.00% EES Non-fossil Fuels in Energy Mix EES Non-fossil Fuels in Power Gen CPS Non-fossil Fuels in Energy Mix Figure 5: Different Non-fossil Fuels Outlooks 6. Nuclear Power: Indispensable and Ready to Grow Without Delay Nuclear power is indispensible and ready to grow without delay in China giving it an increasingly important role in satisfying the above-mentioned share of non-fossil fuels in We calculated that the scale of nuclear power could be over 170 GW, accounting for about 6 percent in 2030 under CPS, slightly lower in the EES. As a result, China would lead the world nuclear power sector by installed capacity, surpassing Japan, France and the United States prior to However, the steady growth in nuclear installed capacity is subject to an enhancement of its comprehensive strength as well as competitiveness. Construction will commence in 2015 through to 2020 (8 to 10 units put into construction annually). However, how to build up one or two world-class brands with industrial strength corresponding to the designated scale of nuclear power stated above remains a major challenge. Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 6
7 GW % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% EES Nuclear Installed Capacity EES Nuclear in Energy Mix CPS Nuclear Installed Capacity CPS Nuclear in Energy Mix Figure 6: Nuclear Energy Outlook 7. Energy Efficiency Is Vital Always Energy efficiency is always crucial to energy-saving, transformation and development. Obviously, this factor is highly positioned in our recommended scenario, quite above that in the CPS. We confirmed this setting in the wake of a study tour to a place called Shanghai Waigaoqiao No. 3 Electric Generation Company with a power supply cost at 276 gram per kwh from its two one GW generators. These achievements convinced us that energy efficiency holds a huge potential in China and should be deemed as vital in the energy transition period as well as a change in consumption patterns. Through the energy system optimization, the total industrial output per energy unit cost under CPS stands at RMB in 2030 (by 2011 constant prices calculation), whereas the output could also reach RMB in EES, nearly 10 percent higher than the former. Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 7
8 yuan/t oil equivalent EES GDP per Energy Consumption CPS GDP per Energy Consumption Figure 7: Energy Efficiency 8. Carbon Emission Could Peak Before Declining in 2020 Through the above-stated energy system optimization and transformation under two consistently advanced scenarios, carbon intensity of both scenarios tends to peak and decline in different timeframes, respectively, while in order to meet its commitments to climate change, CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels could reach a plateau in 2025 followed by a steady slowdown afterwards at 11 billion tons in 2030 under CPS, this emission could also possibly reach its peak at 10 billion tons in 2020 followed by an evident downturn in 2030 in our recommended scenario. This clearly indicates that the peak of carbon emission could be achieved in advance and decline afterwards if all above-mentioned assumptions and changes are realized. Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 8
9 % -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% EES CO2 Emission EES Carbon Intensity CPS CO2 Emission CPS Carbon Intensity Figure 8: Carbon Emission Outlook Under Two Scenarios Note: the illustrated carbon intensity trend refers to the declining rate of the year against 2005 * * * Conclusions and Policy Advices 1. Economic Growth: policy makers are advised not only to review the growth rate over single GDP size but also those ties between growth rate (speed), development quality and effectiveness. A slight fall in GDP growth to 6.6 percent between 2016 and 2018, even much lower rate is wiser and possibly in our outlook period. Most importantly, the slowdown in growth aims at a further shift of our policy focus onto higher quality and new economic pattern built with greater scope for a set of structural reforms launched and many measures implemented. 2. Final Consumption Orientation: Such an orientation will increase the level of electrification and drive final consumption towards a clean, low-carbon and sustainable end. Moreover, through our database optimization, this goal could be met on the basis of a lower level of electricity use. Final consumption therefore has to be re-focused at the policy-making stage. Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 9
10 3. Coal Industry: On the one hand, a decrease of final coal uses in residential and industrial ends is a must and has to be implemented strictly, especially in the eastern part of the country. On the other hand, the level in clean and efficient coal-fired generation has to be encouraged and increased. Under strict surveillance of the total consumption, lower emissions, higher efficiency and significant reduction coal consumption per kwh before CCUS deployed have to be factored into coal policy and regulations, followed by further self-oriented structural reform to tackle the serious realities of downturn. Policy-wise, not only should the bigger coal-fired plants be consolidated, but also only most efficient ones survive. A large-scale divesture and transformation of the coal sector is a must and will be seen in the years 2020 and Consequently, policy-makers have to learn how to calculate the interests vs. goals with additions, subtractions, division, and multiplications in the process of restructuring coal. 4. The Oil and Gas Industry: the trajectory of the oil and gas supply and demand has to be reviewed through an energy system optimization process instead of an isolated approach and self-planning. We advise policy makers to re-focus on solid supplies of indigenous oil and gas sources, emphasizing hydrocarbon saving and substitution as fuels. Those increasing gas while maintaining oil featured policies require stable back-up markets at home and subject to market-oriented options. 5. Non-fossil Energy Sources: We maintain hydropower in China continue to expand steadily at higher costs while sources such as nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal increase in a costeffective way. Currently, however, an increase of these clean sources is subject to an absorbing capacity of power grids at all levels and by centralized and distributed ones, as well as by smart grid supports and the enhancement of end-consumer electricity accountability. Because of this reason, expansion and upgrading of the power grid capacity should be stressed as a positive contributor to the power sector reforms under way, rather than being the object of reform. 6. Energy Saving & Emission Reduction: The next round of energy saving has to be through innovation and energy efficiency enhancement since energy saving would not only result in emission reductions but also represents a prerequisite for the latter. Afterwards, emission reductions lie on structural optimization, technology innovation, plus CCUS deployed economically. Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 10
11 7. In Conclusion: We believe on-going policy points to the designated goals as our data analysis indicates that the desired goals of the country are achievable under the CPS. But some uncertainties remain with regard to untapped potentials through structural adjustment, efficiency improvements and energy saving, thus, a trajectory of energy transition may not be absolute and risk-free and could be more serious against a higher growth and a larger scale of economy. We therefore recommend that, in order to ensure energy transition, a slowdown of economic growth is necessarily as a general pre-condition. Based on an end-consumer oriented approach, the re-direction of the coal sector and the repositioning of oil and gas - debottlenecking non-fossil energy sources - and correcting the relationship between energysaving and emission-reduction are advised. With these policy shifts in mind, not only can the current policy objectives be achieved, but it can also be done ahead of schedule and in a more effective manner with ideal outcomes. Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 11
12 Appendix I: Assumptions GDP Growth % CPS EES Output of per Mtoe in Seconda CPS ry Industry EES Gram/kWh in Coal-fired CPS EES Appendix II: Dataset for energy transition Energy Demand CPS mmtce EES Energy Demand Elasticity CPS EES Electricity Generation CPS TWh EES Electricity Elasticity CPS EES Electrification % CPS % EES % Coal % in Primary Energy Mix CPS % EES Coal Demand CPS Mtce EES Coal % in Power CPS EES Coal in CPS Final Use % EES Oil Foreign CPS Dependency % EES Gas Foreign CPS Dependency % EES Non-fossil fuels Power % CPS EES Nuclear in Primary Energy % CPS EES Output per Toe* CPS EES CO2 Emission CPS Mt EES * It refers Chinese Yuan per unit oil costs to oil pricing. Xiaojie Xu Chinese Academy of Social Sciences xuoffice@vip.sina.com Beijing 12
Keisuke Sadamori Director, Energy Markets and Security International Energy Agency Kuala Lumpur, 8 October
Keisuke Sadamori Director, Energy Markets and Security International Energy Agency Kuala Lumpur, 8 October The context Southeast Asia is a key pillar of Asia s growth A mix of countries with disparate
More informationLondon, 10 November 2015
London, 10 November 2015 The start of a new energy era? 2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels Oil & gas could face second year of falling upstream investment in 2016 Coal prices remain at rock-bottom
More informationChina s Future Generation Assessing the Maximum Potential for Renewable Power Sources in China to 2050 REPORT FEBRUARY
REPORT FEBRUARY 2014 China s Future Generation Assessing the Maximum Potential for Renewable Power Sources in China to 2050 William Chandler, Chen Shiping, Holly Gwin, Lin Ruosida, Wang Yanjia Entri about
More informationEnergy Projections 2006 2030 Price and Policy Considerations. Dr. Randy Hudson Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Energy Projections 2006 2030 Price and Policy Considerations Dr. Randy Hudson Oak Ridge National Laboratory There is perhaps no single current topic so potentially impacting to all life on this planet
More informationEnergy [R]evolution vs. IEA World Energy Outlook scenario
Energy [R]evolution vs. IEA World Energy Outlook scenario New set of scenarios takes climate crisis into account World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2008 for the first time takes the climate crisis really into
More informationTax Credit Extension: Impact on Renewables Investment and Emissions Outcomes
CONCORD, MA - WASHINGTON, DC 47 Junction Square Drive Concord, MA 01742 978-369-5533 www.mjbradley.com MJB&A Issue Brief March 7, 2016 Tax Credit Extension: Impact on Renewables Investment and Emissions
More informationSummary of the Impact assessment for a 2030 climate and energy policy framework
Summary of the Impact assessment for a 2030 climate and energy policy framework Contents Overview a. Drivers of electricity prices b. Jobs and growth c. Trade d. Energy dependence A. Impact assessment
More informationWorld Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights. www.worldenergyoutlook.org International Energy Agency
World Energy Outlook 27: China and India Insights www.worldenergyoutlook.org International Energy Agency Why Focus on China & India? Increase in World Primary Energy Demand, Imports & Energy-Related CO
More informationWorld Energy Outlook 2012. Presentation to the press London, 12 November 2012
World Energy Outlook 2012 Presentation to the press London, 12 November 2012 The context Foundations of global energy system shifting Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries Retreat from nuclear
More informationSweden Energy efficiency report
Sweden Energy efficiency report Objectives: o 41 TWh of end use energy savings in 216 o 2 reduction in total energy intensity by 22 Overview - (%/year) Primary intensity (EU=1)¹ 124 - -1.8% + CO 2 intensity
More informationEnergy Megatrends 2020
Energy Megatrends 2020 Esa Vakkilainen 1 NOTE The data included in the following is mainly based on International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2007 IEA is considered the most reliable source
More informationGermany Energy efficiency report
Germany Energy efficiency report Objectives: 231 TWh of end-user energy savings by 216 Overview 29 2-29 (% / year) Primary intensity (EU=1) 1 99 + -1.3% - CO 2 intensity (EU=1) 16 - -1.6% - CO 2 emissions
More informationWorld Energy Outlook 2009. Presentation to the Press London, 10 November 2009
World Energy Outlook 29 Presentation to the Press London, 1 November 29 The context The worst economic slump since the 2 nd World War & signs of recovery but how fast? An oil price collapse & then a rebound
More informationNetherlands National Energy Outlook 2014
Netherlands National Energy Outlook 2014 Summary Michiel Hekkenberg (ECN) Martijn Verdonk (PBL) (project coordinators) February 2015 ECN-E --15-005 Netherlands National Energy Outlook 2014 Summary 2 The
More informationGLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK 2013
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK 213 FACT PACK GUY TURNER HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND COMMODITIES APRIL 26, 213 GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 APRIL 213 1 INTRODUCTION This year s Global Renewable
More informationWORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2014 FACTSHEET How will global energy markets evolve to 2040?
How will global energy markets evolve to 2040? In the New Policies Scenario, energy demand grows by 37% to 2040 on planned policies, an average rate of growth of 1.1%. Demand grew faster over the previous
More informationLONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35
LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35 Eurogas is the association representing the European gas wholesale, retail and distribution sectors. Founded in 1990, its members are some 50 companies and associations
More informationIssue. September 2012
September 2012 Issue In a future world of 8.5 billion people in 2035, the Energy Information Administration s (EIA) projected 50% increase in energy consumption will require true all of the above energy
More informationChina Energy efficiency report
China Energy efficiency report Objective: 16% reduction in primary energy intensity by 215 Overview 211-211 (%/year) Primary intensity (EU=1)¹ 222 -- -2.8% ++ CO 2 intensity (EU=1) 294 -- -2.5% + CO 2
More informationSecurity of electricity supply
Security of electricity supply Definitions, roles & responsibilities and experiences within the EU Thomas Barth Chairman of Energy Policy & Generation Committee EURELECTRIC Outline Security of Supply a
More informationInternational Solar Energy Arena January 23rd, 2009, Istanbul STEAM (Strategic Technical Economic Research Center)
International Solar Energy Arena January 23rd, 2009, Istanbul STEAM (Strategic Technical Economic Research Center) Good morning. Sayin Bakanım. Members of Parliament. Ladies and Gentlemen. Slide 1: Opening
More information1. Electricity production in the world: general forecasts
Fifteenth inventory 2013 edition Worldwide electricity production from renewable energy sources Stats and figures series This inventory was carried out by Observ ER and Fondation Énergies pour le Monde
More informationEnergy Efficiency Indicators for Public Electricity Production from Fossil Fuels
international energy agency agence internationale de l energie Energy Efficiency Indicators for Public Electricity Production from Fossil Fuels IEA Information paper In Support of the G8 Plan of Action
More informationEnergy Consumption Increases Slightly in 2015. Renewables Continue to Grow / Advantages Due to Weather, Economic Trend, and Immigration
Nro 06 2015 Energy Consumption Increases Slightly in 2015 Renewables Continue to Grow / Advantages Due to Weather, Economic Trend, and Immigration Berlin/Cologne (December 21, 2015) In 2015, energy consumption
More informationCHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY
国 家 发 展 和 改 革 委 员 会 能 源 研 究 所 Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY CHINA NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY
More informationWORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2011 FACTSHEET How will global energy markets evolve to 2035?
How will global energy markets evolve to 2035? Major events of the last year have had an impact on short- and medium-term energy trends, but have done little to quench the world s increasing thirst for
More informationDisclaimer. 2016 Energy Outlook 1
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population and productivity growth, energy consumption, energy efficiency, policy
More informationEconomic Outcomes of a U.S. Carbon Tax. Executive Summary
Economic Outcomes of a U.S. Carbon Tax Executive Summary [ Overview [ During the ongoing debate on how to address our nation s fiscal challenges, some have suggested that imposing a carbon tax would improve
More informationArgentina Energy efficiency report
Argentina Energy efficiency report Objectives: o 5.4% energy savings in industry in 216 o 6% electricity savings in 216 Overview 2- (%/year) Primary intensity (EU=1)¹ 16 - -2.3% + CO 2 intensity (EU=1)
More informationMain Street. Economic information. By Jason P. Brown, Economist, and Andres Kodaka, Research Associate
THE Main Street ECONOMIST: ECONOMIST Economic information Agricultural for the and Cornhusker Rural Analysis State S e Issue p t e m b2, e r 214 2 1 Feed de er ra al l RR e es se er rv ve e BBa an nk k
More informationFact Sheet on China s energy sector and Danish solutions
Fact Sheet on China s energy sector and Danish solutions 1. EXPANSION WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY: China focuses on a massive expansion with non fossil energy that is renewable energy and nuclear energy. The
More informationWhat Does Oil Price Drop Mean for China?
POLICY BRIEF SERIES What Does Oil Price Drop Mean for China? Yikun Dong* April 23, 2015 The soaring demand from China and other developing countries drove up oil price in the past decade, from $40 per
More informationNuclear power is part of the solution for fighting climate change
Nuclear power is part of the solution for fighting climate change "Nuclear for Climate" is an initiative undertaken by the members of the French Nuclear Energy Society (SFEN), the American Nuclear Society
More informationFrom Carbon Subsidy to Carbon Tax: India s Green Actions 1
From Carbon Subsidy to Carbon Tax: India s Green Actions 1 09 CHAPTER 9.1 INTRODUCTION The recent steep decline in international oil prices is seen by many as an opportunity to rationalize the energy prices
More informationLow temperatures provide a poor increase in energy consumption. Decreasing economy lessens energy demand / Renewables continue to grow
Low temperatures provide a poor increase in energy consumption Decreasing economy lessens energy demand / Renewables continue to grow Berlin/Cologne (19 December 2012) - Energy consumption in Germany in
More informationChina s CO2 Emission Scenario Toward 2 degree global target. Jiang Kejun. Energy Research Institute, China
China s CO2 Emission Scenario Toward 2 degree global target Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute, China PUBLIC CONFERENCE Victoria University, Thursday 26 June, 214 1 ERI, China Framework of Integrated
More informationRole of Natural Gas in a Sustainable Energy Future
Role of Natural Gas in a Sustainable Energy Future Alexander Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee, Director General of Gazprom Export 2 nd Ministerial Gas Forum Doha, 30 November 2010
More informationEnergy demand and supply in China
37 th IAEE International ti Conference Energy demand and supply in China Ying Fan Center for Energy and Environmental Policy research (CEEP) Institute of Policy and Management Chinese Academy of Sciences
More informationMaking Coal Use Compatible with Measures to Counter Global Warming
Making Use Compatible with Measures to Counter Global Warming The J-POWER Group is one of the biggest coal users in Japan, consuming approximately 2 million tons of coal per year at eight coal-fired power
More informationEU Energy Policy and the Energy Situation in Germany
IIPS Japan Policy Commentary EU Energy Policy and the Energy Situation in Germany By Mikihiko Shimizu Senior Research Fellow at IIPS Introduction Japan s energy policy is undergoing fundamental review
More informationWORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2012 FACTSHEET How will global energy markets evolve to 2035?
How will global energy markets evolve to 2035? Taking all new developments and policies into account, the world is still failing to put the global energy system onto a more sustainable path. The New Policies
More informationA macro-economic viewpoint. What is the real cost of offshore wind? siemens.com / wind
A macro-economic viewpoint What is the real cost of offshore wind? siemens.com / wind in the cost debate A broader view of the value of renewables. Globally, installed power generation capacity currently
More informationERCOT Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan Final Rule Update
ERCOT Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan Final Rule Update ERCOT Public October 16, 2015 ERCOT Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan Final Rule Update In August 2015, the U.S. Environmental
More informationFiscal Year 2011 Resource Plan
Salt River Project Fiscal Year 2011 Resource Plan Page 1 Last summer SRP hosted three resource planning workshops for a diverse group of stakeholders and customers to explain the planning process, discuss
More informationHungary Energy efficiency report
Hungary Energy efficiency report Objectives: o 1.4 Mtoe of end-user energy savings by 216, including 312 ktoe in industry o 1.9 Mtoe of primary energy savings by 23, including around 4% in the power sector
More informationWORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2014 FACTSHEET OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW More than $1.6 trillion was invested in 2013 in energy supply, a figure that has more than doubled in real terms since 2000, and a further $130 billion to improve energy efficiency. Renewables
More informationGood afternoon, and thanks to the Energy Dialogue for your kind invitation to speak today.
Good afternoon, and thanks to the Energy Dialogue for your kind invitation to speak today. Europe is at the forefront of a global transition to a cleaner energy economy. At the same time globally energy
More informationrising Electricity Costs:
rising Electricity Costs: A Challenge For Consumers, Regulators, And Utilities Electricity is the lifeblood of the U.S. economy. It powers our homes, offices, and industries; provides communications, entertainment,
More informationDetails on the Carbon Tax (Tax for Climate Change Mitigation)
Details on the Carbon Tax (Tax for Climate Change Mitigation) Introduction of Carbon Tax Contents 1. Background and Purpose of Carbon Tax 2. Mechanism of Carbon Tax 3. Household Burden due to Carbon Tax
More informationEnergy White Paper at a glance
and Science Energy White Paper at a glance WWW. i Energy White Paper at a glance The Australian Government made an election commitment to deliver an Energy White Paper to give industry and consumers certainty
More informationHow carbon-proof is Kyoto?
How carbon-proof is Kyoto? Carbon leakage and hot air Arjan Lejour and Ton Manders* 1 Abstract Carbon leakage reduces the effectiveness of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as agreed upon by
More information4. Comparison with DECC (2014) Estimated impacts of energy and climate change policies on energy prices and bills
Energy prices and bills - supplementary tables Contents: 1. Energy prices and bills 2. Assumptions 3. Scenarios to 2030 4. Comparison with DECC (2014) Estimated impacts of energy and climate change policies
More informationCHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND ROADMAP STUDY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND ROADMAP STUDY Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
More informationMINNESOTA CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY PROFILE. How Industry Sectors are Advancing Economic Growth
MINNESOTA CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY PROFILE How Industry Sectors are Advancing Economic Growth OCTOBER 2014 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Readily available and reliable energy is critical for the economic vitality, public
More informationBP Energy Outlook 2035
BP January 2014 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption,
More informationThe End of China s Coal Boom. 6 facts you should know
The End of China s Coal Boom 6 facts you should know April 2014 Simon Lim /Greenpeace For more information contact: li.shuo@greenpeace.org Written by: Li Shuo and Lauri Myllyvirta Layout by: Kirmo Kivelä
More informationANALYSIS OF SCOTLAND S PAST AND FUTURE FISCAL POSITION
CPPR Briefing Note ANALYSIS OF SCOTLAND S PAST AND FUTURE FISCAL POSITION Incorporating: GERS 2014 and the 2014 UK Budget Main authors: John McLaren & Jo Armstrong Editorial role: Ken Gibb March 2014 Executive
More information2014 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 2014
14 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 14 Contents Global energy trends Liquid fuels Refining implications European focus Energy Outlook 35 BP 14 Primary energy consumption growth slows and the
More informationEvolution of the smart grid in China
18 Evolution of the smart grid in China Development of this enormous market could shape the future of the smart grid globally. David Xu, Michael Wang, Claudia Wu, and Kevin Chan China has become the world
More informationStatus of China s regional trading programs: progress and challenge
Status of China s regional trading programs: progress and challenge Fei TENG Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University 2013 Aug 13-15 Contents Background Pilot project at local
More informationLevelized Cost of New Electricity Generating Technologies
Levelized Cost of New Electricity Generating Technologies The Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces forecasts of energy supply and demand for the next 20 years using the National Energy Modeling
More informationNew York s Upstate Nuclear Power Plants Contribution to the State Economy
New York s Upstate Nuclear Power Plants Contribution to the State Economy PREPARED FOR New York State IBEW Utility Labor Council Rochester Building and Construction Trades Council Central and Northern
More informationOn October 21, 2008, the Federal Reserve
Anticipated Recession Effects Gas Prices Natural Gas Prices in a Recession This is a preprint of an article published in Natural Gas & Electricity 2008, Dec., Wiley Periodicals, Inc. http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/105559587
More informationKilian GROSS Acting Head of Unit, A1, DG ENER European Commission
Kilian GROSS Acting Head of Unit, A1, DG ENER European Commission 1 Climate and energy: where do we stand? 2008/2009 2011 2014 The EU climate and energy package 2 Climate and energy: where do we stand?
More informationMichigan Nuclear Power Plants Contribution to the State Economy
Michigan Nuclear Power Plants Contribution to the State Economy PREPARED FOR PREPARED BY Mark Berkman, Ph.D. Dean Murphy, Ph.D. September 2015 This report was prepared for Nuclear Matters. All results
More informationSMARTGRID Roadmap 1.
SMARTGRID Roadmap 1. Introduction to the Smart Grid Roadmap to 25 Ireland faces the same long term energy challenges as the rest of the world: a need to move towards competitively priced, environmentally
More informationMinisterial Statement. Beijing, China, 2 Sep 2014. 2014 - APEC Energy Ministerial Meeting. Beijing Declaration
Ministerial Statement Beijing, China, 2 Sep 2014 2014 - APEC Energy Ministerial Meeting Beijing Declaration Joining Hands Toward Sustainable Energy Development in the Asia-Pacific Region 1. We, the Energy
More informationMaryland Nuclear Power Plant s Contribution to the State Economy
Maryland Nuclear Power Plant s Contribution to the State Economy PREPARED FOR PREPARED BY Mark Berkman, Ph.D. Dean Murphy, Ph.D. September 2015 This report was prepared for Nuclear Matters. All results
More informationANALYSIS OF THE ADMINISTRATION S PROPOSED TAX INCENTIVES FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
June 28, 1999 ANALYSIS OF THE ADMINISTRATION S PROPOSED TAX INCENTIVES FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND THE ENVIRONMENT INTRODUCTION A few months ago in the FY 2000 budget the President proposed a $3.6 billion
More informationCutting Australia s Carbon Abatement Costs with Nuclear Power
Cutting Australia s Carbon Abatement Costs with Nuclear Power Martin Nicholson, October 2011 Abstract The Australian Government Treasury modelling of a carbon price shows that Australia must purchase the
More informationNATURAL GAS DEMAND AND SUPPLY Long Term Outlook to 2030
1. Background On different occasions, Eurogas is asked to present its views on the future of the European gas industry. The forecasts are mainly needed for conferences and bilateral discussions with European
More information6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2012/13 average = 100
6. Economic Outlook The International Economy Growth of Australia s major trading partners is expected to be around its long-run average in 015 and 016 (Graph 6.1). Forecasts for 015 have been revised
More informationSECTOR ASSESSMENT (SUMMARY): ENERGY. 1. Sector Performance, Problems, and Opportunities
Country Operations Business Plan: Philippines, 2013 2015 SECTOR ASSESSMENT (SUMMARY): ENERGY 1. Sector Performance, Problems, and Opportunities 1. Challenges. Economic growth has been impeded in the Philippines
More informationTokyo Steel s Views to Global Warming revised on June 25, 2010 with the latest data
Tokyo Steel s Views to Global Warming revised on June 25, 2010 with the latest data 1. Introduction A worldwide movement to control global warming is under way. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol became the world
More informationWeiqiao Textile Announces its 2015 Interim Results
Weiqiao Textile Announces its 2015 Interim Results Seize new opportunities in new normal development phase Continued leadership against the backdrop of industry changes Financial Summary Revenue was approximately
More informationEconomic Development and the Risk of Global Climate Change
14 Economic Development and the Risk of Global Climate Change Who is primarily responsible for creating the risk of global climate change? 78 Since the industrial revolution, economic development has been
More informationEnergy and Consumer Impacts of EPA s Clean Power Plan. Prepared for the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity
Energy and Consumer Impacts of EPA s Clean Power Plan Prepared for the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity Contents Executive Summary Overview of the Clean Power Plan NERA Methodology Baseline
More informationThe Future of Biogas in China
The Future of Biogas in China Li Jingming Secretary-General, China Biogas Society Biogas World Berlin, Germany April 1, 2014 Outline Achievements on Biogas Development in China Why Biogas has been Chosen
More informationLevelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015
June 2015 Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 This paper presents average values of levelized costs for generating technologies that
More informationINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY. UpcomingIEA Publications
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY UpcomingIEA Publications March 2009 2009 Spring Energy Policies of Luxembourg: 2008 Review Luxembourg has reformed its energy policies since the last IEA in-depth review in
More informationWHEN AN EFFECTIVE EU ENERGY POLICY?
WHEN AN EFFECTIVE EU ENERGY POLICY? A. Clerici ABB Italy Honorary Chairman of WEC Italy Chairman of WEC WG The future role of nuclear in Europe 1 INDEX 1. General Comments 2. Vulnerability 3. Transmission
More informationX. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/
1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably
More informationFrance Electricity Report for 2014
France Electricity Report for 2014 Press kit Contents 1. The consumption drop 6 2. The development of renewable energies 8 3. The fossil fuel power generation slump 9 4. The CO 2 emissions decrease 5.
More informationDisclaimer. Energy Outlook 2030 2
January 213 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies
More informationFinding a green engine for economic growth China s renewable energy policies
Low Carbon Green Growth Roadmap for Asia and the Pacific CASE STUDY Finding a green engine for economic growth China s renewable energy policies Key points China s renewable energy industry has been elevated
More informationEnergy Efficiency trends and policies
Energy Efficiency trends and policies in Denmark Copenhagen, January 2016 Date: January 2016 Energy Efficiency Trends and Policies in Denmark 1 Contact person: Jane Rusbjerg; JRU@ens.dk Signe Marie Enghave;
More informationResponse to the Energy White Paper Issues Paper PREPARED BY EMC ENGINEERING FOR THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY
Response to the Energy White Paper Issues Paper PREPARED BY EMC ENGINEERING FOR THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY i P a g e www.energym adeclean.com CONTENTS
More informationGlobal growth rates Macroeconomic indicators CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario
Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook CEDIGAZ February 215 Global growth rates Macroeconomic indicators CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario 4 3 %/year 199-213 213-235 6 Main consuming markets - %/year (213-235)
More informationRoadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050
Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050 COUNTRY CAPITAL XXX, 9 March 2011 NAME XXX DG Climate Action European Commission 1 Limiting climate change a global challenge Keeping average
More informationBP Energy Outlook 2035
BP February 215 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption,
More informationDemocratic and Republican Positions on Environmental Issues. Edward H. Klevans, Professor and Department Head Emeritus of Nuclear Engineering
Democratic and Republican Positions on Environmental Issues Edward H. Klevans, Professor and Department Head Emeritus of Nuclear Engineering Issue: Climate Change Democratic Position The Democratic Platform
More informationThe Green Road to Growth in South Korea: The Conditions for Success. Prof. Jae-Seung LEE Korea University
The Green Road to Growth in South Korea: The Conditions for Success Prof. Jae-Seung LEE Korea University Energy Situation in Korea: Overview Natural Resource is scarce. The 13 th largest economy (GDP)
More informationSome highlights of the South Australia study include: A large untapped resource: The modelling results show strong growth in
South Australia has enough clean energy potential to power homes remove pollution equivalent to cars create 3,000,000 450,000 5,000 new jobs Australia is in the early stages of a clean energy boom, with
More informationRating Methodology by Sector. Electric Power
Last updated: April 23, 2015 Rating Methodology by Sector Electric Power 1. Business base Vital to public interest, the electric power industry is regulated and protected by the government in its role
More informationSECTION 1. PREAMBLE 3 SECTION 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 ABOUT US 6
CONTENTS SECTION 1. PREAMBLE 3 SECTION 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 ABOUT US 6 Disclaimer notice on page 8 applies throughout. Page 2 SECTION 1. PREAMBLE The New Energy Outlook (NEO) is Bloomberg New Energy
More informationReasons for the drop of Swedish electricity prices
Reasons for the drop of Swedish electricity prices Project for Svensk Energi Dr. Lion Hirth Neon Neue Energieökonomik GmbH Karl-Marx-Platz 12, 12043 Berlin, Germany hirth@neon-energie.de Summary report
More informationOur financing of the energy sector in 2013
Our financing of the energy sector in 213 rbs.com/sustainable About this document This report is the fourth Our financing of the energy sector briefing that we have produced since 21. The aim remains the
More informationAnne Sophie CORBEAU International Energy Agency GEP AFTP 12Janvier 2012
World Energy Outlook Russie et Energie Anne Sophie CORBEAU International Energy Agency GEP AFTP 12Janvier 2012 Emerging economies continue todrive global energy demand Mtoe 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500
More informationIs natural gas the key energy for a low carbon future? 16 September, 2015 BP Forum, Berlin
Is natural gas the key energy for a low carbon future? 16 September, 2015 BP Forum, Berlin Opening remarks Good morning / afternoon everyone. I am very grateful for the invitation to join you and I am
More informationFULL SOLAR SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES - THE EXAMPLE JAPAN
FULL SOLAR SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES - THE EXAMPLE JAPAN Dr. Harry Lehmann 1 It has long been known that to protect people and the environment from both nuclear risks and dangerous levels of climate
More information