DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

Transcription

1 RESEARCH TEAM DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

2 EUR / USD Bouncing higher. EUR/USD recovery rally has faded below declining trend line at Hourly support is given at (23/09/2016 low). Key resistance is given at (23/08/2016 high) then (23/06/2016 high). Strong support can be found at (05/08/2016 low). Expected to decline towards In the longer term, the technical structure favours a very long-term bearish bias as long as resistance at (24/08/2015 high) holds. The pair is trading in range since the start of Strong support is given at (16/03/2015 low). However, the current technical structure since last December implies a gradual increase. Page 2 14

3 GBP / USD Consolidating. GBP/USD is back below after a weak attempt at declining trendline. Persistent selling pressure suggests further weakness. Hourly resistance is given at (22/09/2016 high). Key resistance lies at (06/09/2016 high). Hourly support can be found at Expected to show continued downside pressures. The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment. Page 3 14

4 USD / JPY Sharp rally. USD/JPY has broken key resistance at opening the way for further strengthen. However, technical pattern remains focused on further downside. Hourly resistance is given at (21/09/2016 high) then (02/09/2016 high). Psychological support at 100 is not far away. A key support lies at (24/06/2016 low). Expected to further weaken. We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at (13/06/2013 low). Page 4 14

5 USD / CHF Directionless. USD/CHF continues to move broadly sideways, as can be seen by the failure to break the hourly resistance at (01/09/2016 high), the shortterm technical structure is negative. There are alternating periods of strong and low volatility and the pair seems without direction. Key resistance lies at (30/05/2016 high). Support can be located at (28/09/2016 low) then (26/09/2016 base low). In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January Page 5 14

6 USD / CAD Collapse after failure at USD/CAD is trying to bounce near the support at However, a break of the hourly resistance at (25/09/2015 high) is needed to invalidate the current short-term bearish technical structure. Strong resistance area between and will likely be hard to break. Key support can be found at (22/09/2016 low). In the longer term, the pair is still trading below its 200-day moving average. Strong resistance is given at (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at (16/03/2015 low). The pair is likely in a consolidation phase within a new long-term decline. Page 6 14

7 AUD / USD Grinding lower. AUD/USD has broken rising trendline, yet he short-term bullish momentum is intact as long as the hourly support at (base low) holds. Key resistance is located at (10/08/2016 high). Support is found at (26/09/2016 and uptrend channel) and (21/09/2016 low). In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at (31/10/2008 low). A break of the key resistance at (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. Page 7 14

8 EUR / CHF Consolidation. EUR/CHF continues to consolidate recent bounce. Key resistance still lies at (24/06/2016 high) while support can be found at (16/08/2016 low). We continue to consider that selling pressures are very important at this level. Expected to see further weakness. In the longer term, the technical structure remains positive. Resistance can be found at (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at (28/01/2015 low) and (27/01/2015 low). Page 8 14

9 EUR / JPY Finding buyers. EUR/JPY bounce has gained momentum above resistance. Break of the hourly resistance at (25/09/2015 high) invalidates the current short-term bearish technical structure. Hourly support is given at (05/08/2016 low) while hourly resistance is located at (21/09/2016 high). In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July The road is now wide open towards strong support at (24/07/2012 low). Page 9 14

10 EUR / GBP Grinding lower. EUR/GBP has broken the support at (rising trendline) opening the way for further weakness. Key resistance lies at (16/08/2016 high) while hourly support can be found at (19/09/2016 low). Expected to show continued weakness. In the long-term, the pair is currently recovering from recent lows in The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading far above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at (25/02/2013 high). Page 10 14

11 GOLD (in USD) Base formation likely underway. Gold is likely forming a base near the key support at Hourly support is located at 1320 (21/09/2016 reaction low), while a key support stands at 1302 (01/09/2016 low). Hourly resistance can be located at 1337 (27/09/2016 high). In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low). Page 11 14

12 SILVER (in USD) Still riding rising trendline. Silver has significantly weakened recently after break of the symmetrical triangle. Support can be found at (rising trendline), break would trigger extension to support. Hourly resistance is given at (06/09/2016 high) while key resistance is given at (04/07/2016 high). In the long-term, the metal is now in an increasing uptrend. Resistance is located at (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at (20/04/2009). Page 12 14

13 Crude Oil (in USD) Surge on new demand. Crude oil bounced near the key support at yesterday. An unlikely break of resistance at 47.75, as a break would signal significant exhaustion in recent selling pressures. Hourly resistance can be found at (intraday high). Hourly support can be found at (22/09/2016 high). Time to reload bearish positions. In the long-term, crude oil is now recovering from its sharp decline and the signs of recovery are now strong. Strong support lies at (13/11/2002) while strong resistance at (09/10/2015 high) has been broken. Crude oil is holding way above its 200-Day Moving Average. Expected to reach 60 before year-end. Page 13 14

14 DISCLAIMER While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and Swissquote Bank and its subsidiaries can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. Swissquote Bank makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations for individual securities or other instruments. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. It is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, except with respect to information concerning Swissquote Bank, its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. Swissquote Bank does not undertake that investors will obtain profits, nor will it share with investors any investment profits nor accept any liability for any investment losses. Investments involve risks and investors should exercise prudence in making their investment decisions. The report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any opinions expressed in this report are for information purpose only and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas or groups of Swissquote Bank as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. Swissquote Bank shall not be bound or liable for any transaction, result, gain or loss, based on this report, in whole or in part. Research will initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of Swissquote Bank Strategy Desk. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. Swissquote Bank is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein and not liable for any result, gain or loss, based on this information, in whole or in part. Swissquote Bank specifically prohibits the redistribution of this material in whole or in part without the written permission of Swissquote Bank and Swissquote Bank accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. Swissquote Bank All rights reserved. Page 14 14