TS Model Growth Portfolios

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1 M A R K E T S C O M M O D I T I E S - C U R R E N C I E S TS Model Growth Portfolios : Q1 outlook Overview: Q1 is unfolding with minor volatility. January was a negative month on both the TSX and the benchmark S&P 500. Markets have moved upward fairly dramatically over the last two quarters and a retracement is healthy for a longer rise. Several key economic and market elements that point to higher levels are still in place. One is the U.S. yield curve. We talked about that in last month's report. Second, is the steady decline in the U.S. and Canadian Unemployment claims numbers. These are both falling. Unemployment moves in the opposite direction as the markets (Chart 1). an ongoing recovery (Chart 2). The current 4.10% is nearing the 20-yr average of 4.64%. U.S.A. Canada U.S. Housing starts continue to advance Qt over Qt. Unemployment claims continue to decline. This is positive for the stock market. Chart 2 Market outlook: Toward 1950 The S&P 500 had a bumpy ride last month losing over 4%. Nevertheless, the drop was minimal when reviewing the price action over the last 3-4 years (Chart 3). Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart 1 The 1st main support level is at The overall trend for the U.S. Unemployment claims suggests continued performance from the S&P 500 into Another important gauge are Retail sales and the U.S. Housing starts. Both are generally leading indicators to the stock markets. Again, these key indexes illustrate the ongoing recovery in the U.S.. Retail sales, in our opinion, is perhaps most important as the consumer is the single largest component of the U.S. economy. Both of these gauges are indicating Chart 3 Well above the Cloud support. Pg. 1 Feb/14 Ph

2 The S&P 500 still is holding to a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This is critical for it is the definition of an uptrend. The U.S. index would need to decline through 1700 to break this formation. We are not seeing any signs of a top formation. The S&P 500 is also well above the Cloud support at 1600 and is expecting to climb to 1950 by mid-year. The TSX also had a small pullback last month within a broader bull market. After reaching 14,000, the Canadian index is now on the 1st support level at 13,500 (Chart 3). 1st support at 13,500. generally trended in the right direction and the unemployment rate keeps declining. The Fed has started its "tapering" program meaning it will slow its bond buying. And judging from recent market action, investors seem to believe that the economy is strong enough to withstand the withdrawal of the easy money. The BMO India Equity Index (ZID) is the only holding that is being considered for liquidation. Having reached the resistance level of $12.90 in January, ZID failed to advance. If ZID is unable to move over $12.90 in February, then the ETF will be sold. No other security sells are expected. For January, the TS Model Portfolio finished down 2.66%, this compares to the S&P 500 which is down 2.86% and to the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VT) which is down 2.89%. Chart 4 The outlook for the TSX remains positive into mid-year inspite of the large commodity presence. With a recovering U.S. dollar, this will apply negative pressure to many material sectors. Nevertheless, we feel that 14,500 is obtainable by year-end. We reiterate our positive stance on the markets for 2014 although we do not believe this coming year will produce the record returns of We are expecting a more modest return on the S&P 500 of 6%-7%. Our stance on the markets continues to be driven by the evidence that we have left the commodity cycle in 2012 and are entering another secular stock cycle similar to the 1980s. These movements, which last on average 14 years, are dominated by extended market advances, lower volatility and a rising US$. The stock sectors that are favoured to outperform are industrials, healthcare, technology, consumer cyclicals and financials. The commodity groups that usually underperform are energy, materials (gold, silver and base metals) and agricultural. We will be largely staying in the stock sectors for the foreseeable future and out of commodities. Portfolio update 2013 was one of the strongest performing years for the U.S. markets and the U.S. TS Portfolio reflected this growth (the portfolio was up 43.27%). The economy Disclaimer. Please read. The Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios are independent publications. The information included on this website is for information purposes only. The opinions expressed should not be considered investment advice to buy or sell securities, but rather the author s opinion only. You assume all risks associated with investment decisions made on the basis of information contained on this website. The Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios and its author make no representations about suitability of the services or information contained on this website or publications for any purpose. All such services and information are provided as is and as available, without warranty of any kind, express or implied. The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, but this cannot be guaranteed. The Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios and/or the author have not taken any steps to verify the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of the information provided. The profiles, critiques, and other editorial content of the Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios may contain forward-looking statements relating to the expected capabilities of the companies or markets mentioned herein. The reader should verify all claims and do his or her own due diligence before investing in any securities mentioned. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk. Neither the Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios nor the author make any warranty, express or implied, of any kind whatsoever, and none of the parties shall be liable for any losses, damages, costs or expenses, of any kind or description, relating to the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of the available information or the use of the available information. The analysis does not purport to be a complete study of the securities mentioned herein, and readers are advised to discuss any related purchase or sale decisions with a registered securities broker. Reports within the Technical Speculator and the TS Model Growth Portfolios are for information purposes only and are not solicitations to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The author may or may not have equity positions in the securities mentioned in the Technical Speculator newsletter and the TS Model Growth Portfolios. Copyright D.W. Dony and Associates Inc., All rights reserved. Pg. 2 Feb/14 Ph

3 M A R K E T S C O M M O D I T I E S - C U R R E N C I E S TS Model Growth Portfolio - January 31, 2014 Investment % Price Shares Value BMO India , Husky Energy , TransForce , ishares International Fundamental , , ishares Money Market Fund , , ishares US Dividend Growers Fund Index , , ishares TSX Financials Fund Index , , Five Star Quality Care Inc , , CA Technologies , , International Shipholding , China Cord Blood , , Health Care SPDR Select Sector , First Financial Bankshares , Ducommun , , Columbia Sportswear , Russell , TS Model Growth Portfolio: $486, Portfolio value: December 31, 2013 $499, Year-to-date performance...(2.66%) Year-to-date performance: S&P (2.86%) Year-to-date performance: Vanguard Total World Stock Index...(2.89%) 11-year average CDN portfolio return % 11-year average U.S. portfolio return % 11-year average return S&P % All portfolio returns are calculated before dividends. Pg. 3 Feb/14 Ph

4 Security: ishares International Fundamental Index - CIE Date of last purchase: February 2, 2013 Current price: $16.72 Latest purchase price: 2800 $13.31 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of Upward trend continues into Q1. Support is at $ Resistance at $ No signs of weakness. Future recommendations: Outlook remains positive in Good upside potential as global bull market continues. Continue to hold. Target is still $18.00 for Q1. Security: ishares TSX Capped Financials Index Fund - XFN Date of last purchase: December 10, 2013 Current price: $27.99 Latest purchase price: 1,400 $28.40 Current considerations: Weakening RSI reading of Short term top. Pullback expected in February. Support at $ No signs of major weakness. Future recommendations: New purchase. Correct sector for Record Q4 earnings for banks. Nearing 1st target of $ Long term up trend intact. Continue to hold. Security: ishares U.S. Dividend Growers Index Fund - CUD Date of last purchase: May 29, 2013 Current price: $28.61 Latest purchase price: $27.28 Current considerations: Neutral RSI reading of Testing support at $28.00 this month. Short term weakness expected in February. Future recommendations: Correction in a bull market for Q1. No change in outlook. Correct sector for Nearing 1st target is $ Continue to hold. Security: Husky Energy - HSE Date of last purchase: December 7, 2012 Current price: $33.09 Latest purchase price: 500 $28.80 Current considerations: Near overbought RSI reading of Support at $ Bullish triangle pattern breakout in November. Short term pullback in February. Future recommendations: Many pillars of future earnings. Outlook still favourable into Q1. 1st target is $36. Long term target is $ P/E. Continue to hold. Pg. 4 Feb/14 Ph

5 Security: BMO India Index Fund - ZID Date of last purchase: January 13, 2012 Current price: $12.06 Latest purchase price: 600 $10.08 Current considerations: Neutral RSI reading of Reached resistance at $12.75, failed to cross. Short term weakness in February. Still expected strength in late Q1. Future recommendations: LT base developing.. Holding Q1 target of $13.00-$ Will likely sell if ZID fails to breakout over resistance. Continue to hold. Security: TransForce Inc. - TFI Date of last purchase: January 4, 2012 Current price: $23.86 Latest purchase price: 700 $20.50 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of Support is at $ Main trend is still up. No technical concerns. Some short term weakness in February. Future recommendations: All-time high. Reached 1st target of $ Great balance sheet P/E, $1.31 EPS. Raising 2014 target to $29 Security: First Financial Bankshares - FFIN Date of purchase: December 14, 2012 Current price: $61.17 Latest purchase price: 300 $39.60 Current considerations: Neutral RSI reading of Testing price support at $57 in February. ST pullback. No overhead resistance. Higher levels still expected. Future recommendations: Long term upward trend continues. All-time high. Nearing target of $75. Becoming expensive P/E, $2.48 EPS. Continue to hold. Security: International Shipholding - ISH Date of last purchase: October 1, 2013 Current price: $26.79 Latest purchase price: 600 $27.30 Current considerations: Neutral RSI reading of Support at $24. Consolidation in February. Resistance at $31-$30. Higher levels still expected in late Q1. Future recommendations: The LT picture for ISH remains bullish. Well managed company. Outlook is favourable into P/E. Nearing the $33 target. Pg. 5 Feb/14 Ph

6 Security: Columbia Sportswear - COLM Date of last purchase: November 30, 2012 Current price: $74.35 Latest purchase price: 300 $58.00 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of Support is at $ Breakout in November. Upward trend in Q1 continuing. No technical signs of weakness. Future recommendations: Excellent balance sheet. Getting expensive P/E. New target of $84. Consumer discretionaries are the correct sector in Security: Healthcare SPDR Select Sector - XLV Date of last purchase: May 29, 2012 Current price: $55.96 Latest purchase price: 400 $48.80 Current considerations: Near overbought RSI reading of Support is at $55. New 52-week high. Outlook remains positive in Q1. No weakness in the trend. Future recommendations: Healthcare sector typically outperforms in a mature market. Nearing target of $59. Correct sector for Continue to hold. Security: Ducommun - DCO Date of last purchase: December 14, 2012 Current price: $28.50 Latest purchase price: 1,200 $16.60 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of ST consolidation likely into February. Support at $24. Still producing higher highs and higher lows. Resistance at $30. Future recommendations: Strong fundamentals P/E. $1.62 EPS. New target of $36 expected by Q2. Correct sector in Continue to hold. Security: ishares Russell IWM Date of last purchase: September 18, 2012 Current price: $ Latest purchase price: 200 $85.72 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of Support at $105. New 52-week high. No top developing. Great outlook into Q1. Reached target of $112. Future recommendations: Long term upward trend intact. Strong growth in US small caps into 2014 expected. Next target is $119. Continue to hold. Pg. 6 Feb/14 Ph

7 Security: CA Technology Inc. - CA Date of last purchase: November 11, 2013 Current price: $32.09 Latest purchase price: 1800 $32.13 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of On support at $32. Support at $31. Short term consolidation in February. Resistance at $34. Future recommendations: Great LT upside potential. Still inexpensive P/E. $2.31 EPS. Correct sector for Nearing 1st target of $ Continue to hold. Security: China Cord Blood - CO Date of last purchase: October 1, 2013 Current price: $3.95 Latest purchase price: 4,500 $3.80 Current considerations: Positive RSI reading of Triangle consolidation pattern continues to develop in February. Some resistance at $4.00. Support is at $3.75. Future recommendations: LT outlook promising. Growing world demand for cord blood P/E, EPS is $0.25. Lots of upside potential. 1st target is $5.00. Security: Five Star Quality Care - FVE Date of last purchase: January 2, 2014 Current price: $5.43 Latest purchase price: 4800 $5.50 Current considerations: Neutral RSI reading of Broke out in December. ST weakness in February. Support at $5.25. Resistance at $6.00. Gathering momentum. Future recommendations: Great LT upside potential. Correct sector for st target of $ P/E, $0.27 EPS. Continue to hold. Pg. 7 Feb/14 Ph

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