How To Chart The Euro/Dollar With A 45 Degree Trendline
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- Griffin Byrd
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1 1
2 - INTRODUCTION - TIME & PRICE - CORRELATION - FOREX RANKING - FOREX BASKET ARBITRAGE - FX-QUANT 2
3 Which Trend line is correct? 3
4 What is the value of a 45 degree trendline when you have charts with different distances between the bars? What is the distance between bars anyway? This means the 45 degree line is not correct in most charts! 4
5 The correct way to draw the 45 degree line. 1 step in Price and 1 step in Time Same # steps Up/Down and to the right Time & Price meet at that crossing point 5
6 Width = (H-L) * Delta (for all bars) Fixed proportion on each bar Keep a constant Ratio for all bars. (Delta) 6
7 Time & Price Triangle Close outside the Triangle is a possible change in direction 7
8 From where to start a new 45 Line? From a new reversal once crossed by the 45 Line 8
9 SMA-3 in steps, 1e Up/Down is called 1e step Up/Down 45 Line replaced when crossed partly, but not by the close 9
10 EUR/USD daily data, normal bars 10
11 EUR/USD daily bars with 45 Line. 11
12 The 45 Line on normal daily bars, a difficult calculation 12
13 A different (Renko) way to chart Time & price with 45 Line 13
14 The 45 Line on Fixed Range Bars 14
15 - Correlation - Different way to trade Cross Rates 15
16 Correlation between CME Forex contracts >0.8 is high correlation Example CAD against AUD is
17 High correlation between Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar, the so called Commodity Currencies. 17
18 Above matrix is the 5-day correlation between Forex Pairs Example : EUR-USD against EUR-CAD = +88 USD-JPY against AUD-USD =
19 - Correlation to high, less profit - Correlation to low, more risk - Best correlation for spreads between 65 and 85 % 19
20 Cross-Rate: EUR / USD = USD / CHF = Take out the two x USD and get the Cross Rate EUR/CHF x = EUR/CHF So 3 legs working together! 1 EUR/USD 2. USD/CHF 3- EUR/CHF 20
21 Ratio between EUR/USD and GBP/USD 21
22 Difference between EUR/USD and GBP/USD (both ) 22
23 Bottom chart: Spread value, now with Candle or bars 23
24 Bars are the OHLC of a spread between the two contracts Weekly bars (box) around daily spread bars. Trend in the spread is up when the 1e daily close is above the last weekly high (box) v.v. 24
25 Two time frames, Boxes (weekly) and Bars (daily) Working together!! Boxes are the trigger 25
26 Spread CME uro/usd (top chart) against Swiss/USD (middle) At \/ sold /$ and bought SFR/$, both $ 12,50 per point. 26
27 Long spread signal, start Neutral with: AUD NZD (0.7883/0.7004) You need NZD short for AUD 100k. long 27
28 Spread: 2 x E-NQ against 1 x E-S&P! Use same strategy 28
29 One more step you can add: On each new signal take a new full position, but take out each time the 75% of the position when the average bar length is reached 29
30 FOREX RANKING System for ranking Major Forex Rates 1
31 How can we rank the major FX rates? - Filter each FX rate with the same type of filter - This way we can compare FX Rates - For easy ranking create a ranking table and a scatter type chart 2
32 What are we using? - RSI 10 - EMA10 on RSI - EMA30 on RSI - Ratio EMA10 EMA30 (> 100, <100) - Momentum on Ratio (> 100, <100) 3
33 4
34 5
35 6
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39 10
40 Symbol Last RSI RSI_Ratio Momentum EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY USD/CAD USD/NOK USD/SEK USD/DKK EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/JPY EUR/NOK EUR/SEK EUR/DKK GBP/JPY USD/SGD USD/HKD
41 Symbol Last RSI RSI_Ratio Momentum GBP/JPY EUR/USD EUR/JPY GBP/USD NZD/USD EUR/CHF EUR/NOK USD/HKD USD/SGD USD/JPY EUR/GBP AUD/USD USD/NOK EUR/DKK USD/CHF USD/DKK EUR/SEK USD/SEK USD/CAD
42 Symbol Last RSI RSI_Ratio Momentum Yesterday Yesterday RSI_Ratio Momentum GBP/JPY EUR/USD EUR/JPY GBP/USD NZD/USD EUR/CHF EUR/NOK USD/HKD USD/SGD USD/JPY EUR/GBP AUD/USD USD/NOK EUR/DKK USD/CHF USD/DKK EUR/SEK USD/SEK USD/CAD
43 14
44 23 15
45 FOREX BASKET ARBITRAGE 16
46 RSIz shows: - negative power below the zero line - positive power above the zero line. 17
47 Compare RSI (Strength/Weakness) of FX Basket All Currencies quoted in USD 18
48 In this sample: - EUR/USD - GBP/USD - AUD/USD - NZD/USD - USD/CHF = CHF/USD - USD/JPY = JPY/USD - USD/CAD = CAD/USD - EUR/CHF - All equal quoted in USD 19
49 How much to use per trade? Total RSI value of all Currencies quoted in USD = -83 is 100% of all currencies in the Basket Example: EUR/USD (Red -14) means you are short in EUR/USD JPY/USD (Purple +21) is long in JPY/USD or short in USD/JPY 20
50 Total RSI value of all Currencies quoted in USD = -83 is 100% of all currencies in the Basket Your available capital to trade 100k. for all 8 currencies Example: EUR/USD (Red -14) means you are short in EUR/USD -14/-83 = * 100k = short EUR/USD
51 Total RSI value of all Currencies quoted in USD = -83 is 100% of all currencies in the Basket Your available capital to trade 100k. for all 8 currencies Example: USD/JPY (Red +21) means you are Long in JPY/USD or Short USD/JPY (Spot Quotation) +21/-83 = * 100k = short USD/JPY
52 Each currency get equal weight as indicated by the RSI per currency. Example: USD 10K. = EUR but corrected by the RSI above it s now
53 Adjust each currency daily to keep the portfolio in Balance. Reinvest the profits once per month to build portfolio value. 24
54 FX-QUANT FX-Quant Trading System 1
55 What does Arbitrage mean? Arbitrage is a financial operation in which currency pairs are bought and sold, either simultaneously or in minimum lapse of time, either in the same market or a different one, with the goal of obtaining a profit spread, product of the rate s price differentials. 2
56 What is an Arbitrage Model? Arbitrage models for currency/stock pairs may be designed in a variety of ways. The important key is to have knowledge of the relationships among pairs. This form of arbitrage relies on a strong correlation between two related securities. The pairs trade is market-neutral, meaning the direction of the overall market does not affect its win or loss. 3
57 What Is "Market-Neutral? A market neutral strategy is one where a trader takes a long position and a short position at the same time. Once two markets determined to be statistically "out of alignment", a long position is taken in the market considered to be undervalued while a short position is simultaneously taken in the market considered to be overvalued relative to the first market. 4
58 The trading strategy is based on quantitative analysis - a statistical concept. - 50% statistical arbitrage statistical and - 50% position size management. Unlike most trading systems, which attempt to predict market direction, this trading model reacts to price action and makes trading decisions. 5
59 Unlike most trading systems, which attempt to predict market direction, this trading model reacts to price action. 6
60 Diversification. The strategy creates a complex portfolio of 10 global currencies and adjusts its components daily. Diversification of currencies can lead to better risk-rewards for the combined portfolio. Example, in a portfolio comprised of three currency pairs, one position can be unprofitable at the moment, but the other two can show profits to more than compensate for the losses incurred with the losing one. 7
61 Leverage. The leverage is carefully determined in order to avoid disastrous draw downs. Standard risk parameters employ an average combined leverage around 2.5:1 for the entire portfolio. The system opens positions in opposite directions. The system is USD neutral (i.e. USD bought = USD sold), although there is a long/short exposure in other currencies. 8
62 9
63 All positions are normalized for a $10,000 opening account NZDUSD means the system is LONG units of the base currency (NZD). USDNOK means the system is SHORT 8496 units of the base currency (USD). 10
64 The risk is addressed by diversification and position size management. The system rebalances portfolio by gradually buying/selling fractional currency lots. When a drawdown occurs, portfolio is rebalanced and ready to recover from losses and make a new equity peak. Potential risk for this system comes from overleveraged trading, i.e. trading too large positions for the account size. No need for protective stops. 11
65 Use G-7 currency pairs: GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, plus NZDUSD USDDKK, EURSEK and USDNOK. Example, long GBPNZD position is equivalent to long GBPUSD / short NZDUSD etc. This way, you combine positions and reduce the bid/ask spread costs. 12
66 Hypothetical Performance report from Strategy back testing 13
67 14
68 Actual Results with real Money 15
69 16
70 17
71 Thank you 18
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