Toms Market Outlook and Trade Alerts for Oct 19 th, Message from Tom

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Roy Wilkinson
8 years ago
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1 Toms Market Outlook and Trade Alerts for Oct 19 th, 2014 Message from Tom I believe the markets have finally cooled their selling ways, partly due to the fact that Ebola is not a concern like people thought it would be (what did I say about ignoring the doomsday ers on this last week) and we are now through seasonal tax selling. I expect the markets to continue moving higher, at least into the FOMC meeting in the middle of the week. Companies expected to report this week include the following: The stocks on this list are part a group of stocks that are liquid and trade weekly options. These are ranked by days to earnings, so they are in order. Also take note of the last two columns, which show how many quarters that earnings were above or below estimates. For instance, Morgan Stanley (MS) has been above their earnings target for 6 of the last 8 quarters.

2 Market Outlook this week Stocks - Looking at the chart above, you can see that we have our 3 rd DarkNet Bullish Signal for the year. I can only assume based on our proprietary formula for these signals that as of now, we are looking at 200 as a target for the SPY at this time. Case Study for SPY November Bull Call Spread

3 Bonds - The confirming indicator that this market has more than likely bottomed has to be the Bonds. TLT had a huge market Blow Off Top at near 128 before settling the week near 121. Last week the Bonds moved 5% up and down, huge by any means and a move I haven t seen in several years. Bonds should move back down to the 115 level as fears subside in the markets. As you can see, DarkNet had a bullish signal on Bonds just after labor- day, as well as a Target near October 1 st. This move confirms the risk ON bullish signal that we have in the Stock Market

4 Currencies - DarkNet has the Euro (FXE) as a ReBuy (more than one unit entry) but conservatively I would wait for the 1030 Moving Average Crossover to occur, which looks to happen soon. Regardless, as the notes in the chart tell, this market is OVERSOLD, and the last week s movement suggests so. I expect to see 130 on the FXE by years end. If the market continues the long awaited bounce, this would serve as another confirmation in the Risk ON stock market

5 Commodities - Crude Oil has been on a slippery slope since July, but there are a few reasons that I believe its now attractive. First, the Saudi s have said for the last few weeks that they are fine with $80 a barrel crude we got that last week. Second, and more important to me, DarkNet gave its 5 th Bullish signal this year and is currently 80% accurate in USO. My target for this asset is 35 in the next 30 days. Case Study for USO

6 GLD Gold has been on a yearly downtrend, only to turn higher a few times this year sparking short- term DarkNet Buys, with 80% success this year. The last signal was most recently closed, meaning that DarkNet suggests the move in GLD to the upside may now be over. Makes sense when you see that the move in Gold over the last 2 weeks was fear- based. Now that fear is subsiding, where does the price of Gold go now? My forecast is down, but no trade. DarkNet Signals DarkNet is based on a proprietary algorithm that is contrarian based, but does not use technical indicators. It uses the mathematical properties of bands and channels to find contrarian buying patterns in the market. Darknet Signals generate B- Buy, R- Rebuy, A- (either Abandon or Add- On) and S- Sell signals for trading stocks. The trading signals are generated using Darknet's new mathematical prediction and pattern matching technology. Stock Channels form patterns, and certain patterns can be detected that signal that a stock has a high probability of going bullish or going bearish. The bullish pattern generates B- Buy signals, and the bearish pattern generates S- Sell signals.

7 Here are the current buys and active signals for DarkNet as of last week. These are all optionable ETFs, REITs, and Trusts. All of the symbols highlighted in GREEN above represent new signals as of last week. Active Signals are ranked by percent to double looking at the call option trade for each. Slippage is a factor and the lower that number, the better. Money Calendar The money calendar is showing mostly seasonal buying (GREEN) opportunities, with LLY as the only bearish (RED) opportunity. Note that the longer the GREEN or RED line, the longer the pattern into the next 30 days.

8 Tom s Tip Try to find DarkNet B or R Signals that are also Money Calendar Signals (Confirmation). For Bearish signals, I only rely on Money Calendar, as DarkNet does not give sell signals. This weeks case studies are as follows: Case Study for the Week - PCLN As you can see from the chart above, Darknet signals have been great this year for PCLN, one returning over 100 stock points, and the other around 20. Looking at the far right edge of the chart, a Darknet Buy signal just occurred.

9 Money Calendar Shows a 90% Winning Percentage on this Seasonal Trade looking back 10 years. The average trade produced 26 points, though the last 3 years its looking more like 50 points as a projection.

10 Option Case Study for PCLN PCLN Case Study Bull Call Spread with November expiration, with $350 per contract risk and $650 per contract max reward, details are above. NOTE that earnings will be soon, and a risk of volatility exists in this trade.

11 Last weeks mentions HD (Bullish) Stock is up 3 points since our mention in Thursdays Webinar. Still looks promising into November LLY (Bearish) Stock is down slightly since Thursday mention. Expect the downtrend to continue this week. USO (Bullish) Bouncing higher since our alert and is currently up 1 point or about 3% so far. Another one I like into November. PCLN (Bullish) We mentioned this one last week, and since then PCLN has moved up 40 points. I am expecting another 50 points, possibly more to 1200, which is where the real resistance is. Watch out for earnings on this one though, the volatility risk is there. Have a great week 1- percenters! I know I will Tom Gentile C1P (Chief 1- percenter) Disclaimers IMPORTANT NOTICE: Electronic Communications Privacy Act 18 U.S.C This is an unofficial response to your request for information and/or a private, proprietary and confidential communication and is for information purposes only. This is not intended to be, and shall not be construed to be in any form or manner a solicitation of investment funds and/or a securities offering. This is confidential and is legally privileged. Nothing in this message should be interpreted as a digital or electronic signature that can be used to authenticate a contract or other legal document. This electronic communication and any files included in the communication may contain confidential information that is for the intended recipient only. If you are the recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or use of any of the information contained in, or attached to, this transmission is STRICTLY PROHIBITED. If you have received this in error, please immediately notify us by return , fax and/or telephone and destroy this . DISCLAIMER: Sender is NOT a United States Securities Dealer or Broker, or U.S. Investment Adviser. Nor is sender a trader, dealer, or broker of ANY jurisdiction and or country. Sender makes no warranties or representations as to the Buyer, Seller or any Transaction that may be contained or disclosed herein. All due diligence is the sole responsibility of the Buyer and Seller. This letter and the attached related documents are never to be considered a solicitation for ANY purpose in ANY form or content, as they are not solicitation. Any recipient that accepts this message and or attachments hereto, SHALL NOT acknowledge or accept this , its attachments or content as Solicitation by sender. Upon receipt of these documents, the Recipient(s) hereby acknowledges this Disclaimer. Any court or tribunal reviewing this disclaimer is instructed just as the recipient has been, to view, review and acknowledge this disclaimer. A full disclaimer can be found here:

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