FX & Markets Weekly. Week 25/2016. DenizBank AG Economic Research Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 25/2016 DenizBank AG Economic Research Vienna, Austria

2 Brits vote for Brexit and shock markets U.K. voted to leave the EU by 52% to 48% causing the GBP to plunge to a 30 year low against USD (GBP/USD at 1,37). Although David Cameron announced his resignation, he will stay in office for at least 3 months. The next Prime Minister to be elected in October will start formal negotiations with the EU. The 6 founding countries of the EU will meet David Cameron in Berlin on Sunday in order to determine what sort of relationship the U.K. wants to have with the EU. Once Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty is set in motion, the U.K. will have 2 years to negotiate its way out of the EU. There are 2 broad options. The Norwegian model would grant the U.K. still access to the single market and participate in free movement of workers. That is the preferred model by banks as e.g. London is a global finance hub. Another option would be trading with the EU under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules like Russia and Brazil do by setting own trade tariffs. A new sort of deal is also possible, but remember, the EU s trade agreement with Canada took 7 years to implement. Foreign trade is not the only issue. Banks could move operations out of the U.K. in favour of Frankfurt, Dublin, and or Paris. But EUR-denominated trading and settlement issues remain to be solved. Brexit losers Apart from the GBP, also U.K. stocks retreated. FTSE 100 index plummeted by 4,5% with Financials suffering most (-11,37%), followed by Consumer Discretionary (-7,12%), and Industrials (-6,45%). Other big losers were Euro Stoxx 50 index (-8,82%), DAX (-7,18%), ATX (-7,33%) even Japanese Nikkei 225 fell by 7,92%. In terms of commodities, crude contracts for August delivery fell by around -4,5%). Brexit winners Although the FTSE 100 index plunged, health care (+0,23%), and consumer staples (+0,13%) could remain positive. U.S. equities were among the winners with Dow Jones up by 1,29%, Nasdaq 100 by +1,42%, and S&P up by 1,34%. The USD was also among the winners, appreciating 7,41% vs. GBP, +4,4% vs. NOK, and +4,29% against ZAR. The strongest counterpart was the JPY though surging by over 11% in 1 day. Chinese Yuan appreciated by 7,32%. Spot gold was another beneficiary with +4,49%on the day. USTs surged with yields falling the most in 7 years. E.g. 10Y yields plunged by 20bps to 1,54%.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,1042-2,11-0,99-1,31 WTI crude 47,84-1,67-2,67 13,74 EUR/TRY 3,2352-2,02-1,56 0,29 BRENT crude 48,50-1,61-1,63 15,60 EUR/CHF 1,0793-0,40-2,60-1,14 GAS oil 436,25-0,11-3,17 14,70 EUR/GBP 0, ,96 6,08 2,52 Heating oil 146,07-1,70-2,44 16,88 EUR/JPY 112,88-3,89-7,93-10,45 Natural gas 2,65 1,30 23,81 26,58 EUR/RUB 72,0875-1,31-2,87-6,46 Gold Spot 1.327,25 2,44 8,25 8,87 EUR/CNY 7,315-1,32-0,03 0,56 Silver Spot 17,93 2,63 10,52 18,24 USD/TRY 2,9292 0,07-0,58 1,73 Platinum Spot 989,92 1,97-1,32 3,95 USD/JPY 102,23-1,81-7,02-9,27 Palladium Spot 548,31 2,82 2,07-5,30 USD/RUB 65,2862 0,85-1,89-5,14 Copper 211,40 2,77 1,95-5,69 USD/CNY 6,625 0,58 1,03 1,69 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 06/24/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,00-7,35-6,56 Austria 123,46 0,59 0,54-0,24 BIST ,61-5,62-7,85 Belgium 116,56 0,49 0,72-0,12 CAC ,48-7,71-5,54 China 107,57 0,44 0,32 2,80 DAX ,92-5,12-3,14 EFSF 121,51 0,01 0,37-0,32 Dow Jones (T-1) ,57 1,72 2,83 ESM 116,36 0,20 0,92-0,10 Euro Stoxx ,77-7,97-7,25 France 115,23 0,42 0,50-0,15 FTSE ,17-2,05-0,24 Germany 112,96 0,43 1,29-0,43 HANG SENG ,44 2,16-0,43 Greece 72,80-2,86-8,69 8,75 IBEX ,90-12,71-11,43 Japan 107,13 0,18 0,31-0,29 MICEX ,51-0,88 0,04 Portugal 113,41-0,05-2,12 2,86 NASDAQ 100 (T-1) ,98 0,52 1,41 Spain 128,73-0,37-0,74 0,89 NIKKEI ,15-9,37-11,49 Russia 95,00 0,21 0,85 8,76 S&P 500 (T-1) ,70 1,79 3,80 Switzerland 132,93-0,10 1,14-0,86 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 88,30-0,00 1,73 10,89 Futures UK 106,28 0,75 2,45 0,70 Bobl 133,52 0,29 1,04 1,34 US 102,19 0,60 2,30 1,26 Bund 166,21 0,84 2,31 2,60 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 3,0822-1,02-1,09 0,95 Baltic Dry Index (T-1) 596 1,53-3,56 46,80 WAC of CBRT 8,14-1,45-3,78-8,64 VIX 23,53 21,48 63,52 59,97 Gold TRY / gram 125,01 2,57 7,69 10,81 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 240,632-8,68-13,12-10,38 TR Gov. B. 2Y yield 9,2 0,55-2,34-9,18 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 835,43 3,62 6,02 2,68 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T -1) -0,345-2,99-2,07 0,29 USD Libor O/N 0,393 1,79 2,18 5,05 Euribor 1 Month -0,364-2,25-3,70-9,97 USD Libor 1M 0,449 0,33 1,15 3,29 Euribor 3 Month -0,281-6,04-8,92-16,12 USD Libor 3M 0,624-3,23-6,27-0,80 Euribor 6 Month -0,175-10,06-21,53-30,60 USD Libor 6M 0,894-3,30-7,65-1,84 Euribor 12 Month -0,047-80,77-291,67-840,00 USD Libor 12M 1,205-2,87-8,16-2,11 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,397-0,36 0,36-1,35 TRY Libor O/N 9,225-5,24-9,72-16,25 EUR Libor 1M -0,361-0,64-2,22-9,57 TRY Libor 1M 9,339-4,17-9,58-18,25 EUR Libor 3M -0,295-3,77-5,52-18,54 TRY Libor 3M 9,529-2,93-8,57-17,12 EUR Libor 6M -0,184-10,75-15,51-32,10 TRY Libor 6M 9,629-3,72-7,90-16,27 EUR Libor 12M -0,058-58,83-95,67-237,57 TRY Libor 12M 9,734-3,18-7,24-15,61

4 Date Time Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 06/17/ :30 US Housing Starts May 1150k 1164k 1172k 06/17/ :30 US Housing Starts MoM May -1.9% -0.3% 6.6% 06/17/ :30 US Building Permits May 1145k 1138k 1116k 06/17/ :30 US Building Permits MoM May 1.3% 0.7% 3.6% 06/22/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Jun % -2.4% 06/22/ :00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM Apr 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 06/23/ :30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index May /23/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jun k 259k 277k 06/23/ :30 US Continuing Claims Jun k 2142k 2157k 06/23/ :45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jun P /23/ :00 US Leading Index May 0.1% -0.2% 0.6% 06/23/ :00 US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Jun /17/ :00 EU ECB Current Account SA Apr b 27.3b 06/17/ :00 EU Current Account NSA Apr b 32.3b 06/17/ :00 EU Labour Costs YoY 1Q % 1.3% 06/20/ :00 EU Construction Output MoM Apr % -0.9% 06/20/ :00 EU Construction Output YoY Apr % -0.5% 06/21/ :00 EU ZEW Survey Expectations Jun /22/ :00 EU Consumer Confidence Jun A /23/ :00 EU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun P /23/ :00 EU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jun P /23/ :00 EU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jun P /21/ :00 TR Benchmark Repurchase Rate Jun % 7.50% 7.50% 06/21/ :00 TR Overnight Lending Rate Jun % 9.00% 9.50% 06/21/ :00 TR Overnight Borrowing Rate Jun % 7.25% 7.25% 06/22/ :00 TR Consumer Confidence Index Jun /24/ :30 TR Real Sector Confidence SA Jun /24/ :30 TR Real Sector Confidence NSA Jun /24/ :30 TR Capacity Utilization Jun % 75.7% 06/17/ :00 RU PPI MoM May 0.9% 1.0% 2.6% 06/17/ :00 RU PPI YoY May 2.5% 3.2% 0.9% 06/20/ :00 RU Unemployment Rate May 5.8% 5.6% 5.9% 06/20/ :00 RU Real Disposable Income May -4.3% -5.7% -7.1% 06/20/ :00 RU Real Wages YoY May -1.9% -1.0% -1.7% 06/20/ :00 RU Retail Sales Real MoM May 2.0% 0.8% -1.4% 06/20/ :00 RU Retail Sales Real YoY May -4.8% -6.1% -4.8% 06/22/ :00 RU CPI Weekly YTD Jun % 3.1% 06/22/ :00 RU CPI WoW Jun % 0.1% 06/23/ :00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve Jun b 393.9b 06/24/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def Jun t 8.61t

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the re-production of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu, Cenk Izgi; Members of the Supervisory Board: Hakan Ates, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Alexander Vedyakhin, Suavi Demircioglu, Dr. Kurt Heindl; Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.