DBFSL RESEARCH. Q1 Analysis of PSU and Private Sector Banks. Is banking sector facing challenges? Bank Nifty for 1 year. EQUITIES INDIA Banks

Transcription

1 Associate of Doha Bank EQUITIES INDIA Banks Q1 Analysis of PSU and Private Sector Banks. research@dbfsindia.com Phone : Is banking sector facing challenges? Bank Nifty for 1 year People normally consider investment in banking sector as the most secured investment. It is true that the banking sector stocks are good for long term investment. But if we analyse the Q1 earnings, we can see the asset quality is deteriorating whether it is a PSU or private sector banks. Non-Performing Assets (NPA) are one of the major concerns for indian banks nowadays. It affects the entire banking system and the economy as a whole. The high level of NPAs leads to diversion of banking resources towards resolution of this problems. This causes an opportunity loss for more productive use of resources. Banks are taking certain steps to reduce the NPA by giving it to ARC (Asset Reconstruction Company). NPA increase may force the banks to reduce the loan providing facilities and this will adversely affect the economy. The industries will suffer if they wont get credit facilities by banks and this affects their productivity and the entire economy as a whole.

2 Is payment banks, a threat to big banks? Recently RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has announced the payment banking system and gave in principle nod to 11 entities for setting up payment banks. Payment banks collect small deposits from its customers and make payments, on their behalf, to other parties. They cannot lend but can accept deposits. Actually Payment banks is not a threat to big banks, he added that they will not compete but serve as feeders to their bigger, full-fledged banking peers. Along with that he also announced the possibility of issuing licences to smaller banks next month. This will ensures the growth of the banking sector. Capital infusion in PSU Banks by ensures the growth of banking sector... By , the government will infuse Rs 70,000 crore into public sector banks, 42 per cent of these banks' overall estimated requirement of Rs 1,80,000 crore. While Rs 25,000 crore each will be infused this financial year and the next Fy , Rs 10,000 crore each will be provided in and This year, the allocation would be in three tranches. About 40 per cent, or Rs 10,000 crore, would be given to banks that require support in the first phase; every bank will have a capital adequacy ratio of at least 7.5 per cent by Bank funds are stuck with large projects mainly due to the delays in land acquisition and clearances. The government's estimate of the required capital infusion of Rs 1,80,000. cr in four years is based on expected credit growth of 12 per cent this financial year and per cent each in the next three. The estimates exclude the internal profit generation of banks. As of March 31 this year, Indian Overseas Bank, Union Bank of India, Dena Bank, IDBI Bank, Corporation Bank and Canara Bank had common tier-i ratios of less than 7.5, according to data sourced from India Ratings. In the second tranche, State Bank of India (SBI), Bank of Baroda (BoB), Bank of India, Punjab National Bank (PNB), Canara Bank and IDBI Bank would be given similar amounts.

3 Comparison of GNPA & NNPA of PSU Banks on Q-o-Q March Q June Q Source : Company data, DBFS Research Source : Company data, DBFS Research March Q June Q

4 Comparison of GNPA & NNPA of Private Sector Banks on Q-o-Q Source : Company data, DBFS Research Source : Company data, DBFS Research

5 GNPA & NNPA of PSU Banks GNPA NNPA S.No Name of the Bank 15-Jun 15-Mar 14-Jun 15-Jun 15-Mar 14-Jun 1 State Bank of India State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur State Bank of Mysore State Bank of Travancore Allahabad Bank Andhra Bank Bank of Baroda Bank of India Bank of Maharashtra Canara Bank Central Bank of India Corporation Bank Dena Bank Indian Bank Indian Overseas Bank Oriental Bank of Commerce Punjab and Sind Bank Punjab National Bank Syndicate Bank UCO Bank United Bank of India Union Bank of India Vijaya Bank IDBI Bank

6 GNPA & NNPA of Private Sector Banks GNPA NNPA S.No Name of the Bank 15-Jun 15-Mar 14-Jun 15-Jun 15-Mar 14-Jun 1 City Union Bank Dhanlaxmi Bank Federal Bank Jammu and Kashmir Bank Karnataka Bank Karur Vysya Bank Lakshmi Vilas Bank South Indian Bank Axis Bank Development Credit Bank HDFC Bank ICICI Bank IndusInd Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank Yes Bank

7 Net Profit of PSU Banks S.No Name of the Bank 15-Jun 15-Mar 14-Jun Y-o-Y growth (%) Q-o-Q growth(%) 1 State Bank of India 4, , , State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur State Bank of Mysore State Bank of Travancore Allahabad Bank Andhra Bank Bank of Baroda 1, , Bank of India Bank of Maharashtra Canara Bank Central Bank of India Corporation Bank Dena Bank Indian Bank Indian Overseas Bank Oriental Bank of Commerce Punjab and Sind Bank Punjab National Bank , Syndicate Bank UCO Bank United Bank of India Union Bank of India Vijaya Bank IDBI Bank

8 Net Profit of Private Sector Banks S.No Name of the Bank 15-Jun 15-Mar 14-Jun Y-o-Y growth (%) Q-o-Q growth(%) 1 City Union Bank Dhanlaxmi Bank Federal Bank Jammu and Kashmir Bank Karnataka Bank Karur Vysya Bank Lakshmi Vilas Bank South Indian Bank Axis Bank 1, , , Development Credit Bank HDFC Bank 2, , , ICICI Bank 2, , , IndusInd Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank Yes Bank Conclusion: Banks Q results are comparatively poor over March Q This is mainly because of the increase in NPA level. RBI had cut repo rate by 25 basis points in June, which enhanced the banking sector for a certain period of time. There are certain banks, which are performing well, but the asset quality deterioration affected the banking sector as a whole.we expect a further rate cut by RBI in coming months only after analysing the monsoon, US Fed rate hike, Yuan devaluation. At this point we feel that liquidity remains steady, inflation is expected to come down by the end of FY15 and the RBI is in full control to manage any volatility. The improvement in asset quality could be seen on the recovery in macro economic environment & thereby revival in economic growth. Investors with a long term perspective can consider buying banking stocks at lower levels on every correction.

9 Disclaimer This research report provides general information only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. The information provided herein is not, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document has been produced independently of any company or companies mentioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expectations contained herein are subject to change without notice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Doha Brokerage and Financial Services Limited (DBFSL), its associate and group companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility or liability, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of the shares and bonds, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject DBFSL or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender.

10 This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of DBFSL. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this document, a customer should consider whether it is suitable given the customer s particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. DBFSL, its associates or group companies do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content of the document and reliance upon it is at your own risk. DBFSL, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document and any information in it. DBFSL, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of DBFSL. Special Disclosure In accordance with the SEBI (Foreign Institutional Investors) Regulations and with guidelines issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), foreign investors (individuals as well as institutional) that wish to transact securities in Indian bourses must have applied to, and have been approved by SEBI and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Each investor who transacts securities in Indian bourses will be required to certify approval as a foreign institutional investor or as a sub-account of a foreign institutional investor by SEBI and RBI. General Investment Related Disclosure Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. DBFSL is also a Portfolio Manager. Portfolio Management Team (PMS) takes its investment decisions independent of the Equity research and accordingly PMS may have positions contrary to the client group research recommendation. DOHA BROKERAGE & FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED Smart Centre, Civil Lane Road, Vazhakkala, Kochi SEBI Regn. No. PMS:INP