Key Changes in Migration Trends since 1951
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1 Key Changes in Migration Trends since 1951 Erste Group International Organization for Migration (IOM) Inter-Agency Seminar Geneva, March 16, 2011 Page 1 March 16, 2011
2 Global migration Page 2 March 16, 2011
3 120 years ago Page 3 March 16, 2011
4 European expansion: From settlement to labour migration Central Asia/Siberia Northern and Southern America, The Caribbean Algeria South Africa Palestine/Israel Australia, New Zealand 70 Migration mn Europe s Europeans from answer Europe migrated to to rapid less to population overseas developed destinations growth peripheries Page 4 March 16, 2011
5 Indian South-South Emigration The Caribbean East Africa Malaysia, Singapore Fiji Mauritius South Africa Reshuffling Where did Mahatma of East Indian Gandhi labor start within his political the British career? Empire Page 5 March 16, 2011
6 Chinese South-South and North Emigration USA, Canada South East Asia Large scale export/import of Chinese labor R. Münz page 6 March 16, 2011
7 60 years ago Page 7 March 16, 2011
8 World migration, Germany/Austria, Poland/Ukraine, etc. India/ Pakistan China/Taiwan Palestine/ Israel More migrants in the global South than in the North R. Münz page 8 March 16, 2011
9 Today R. Münz page 9 March 16, 2011
10 From where do people come? R. Münz page 10 March 16, 2011
11 This is where people come from Proportional map: Stocks of international migrants by country of origin R. Münz page 11 March 16, 2011
12 Top 10 emigration countries* Absolute number of emigrants, in millions, 2010 Number of emigrants, in millions Mexico India Russian Federation China 8.3 Ukraine 6.6 Bangladesh 5.4 Pakistan United Kingdom Philippines Turkey Source: World Bank, UNPD. * Only countries with more than 1 million residents R. Münz page 12 March 16, 2011
13 Top 10 emigration countries* Share of emigrants, in % of resident population, 2010 Share of emigrants, in % of resident population 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Jamaica Armenia Trinidad and Tobago Georgia Kazakhstan Macedonia Moldova Portugal 45.4% 38.9% 36.1% 28.2% 26.7% 25.1% 23.6% 21.9% 21.5% 20.8% Source: World Bank, UNPD. * Only countries with more than 1 million residents R. Münz page 13 March 16, 2011
14 Where do people go? R. Münz page 14 March 16, 2011
15 and this is where they go to Proportional map: Stocks of international migrants by country of destination R. Münz page 15 March 16, 2011
16 Top 10 immigration countries* Number of foreign-born individuals, in millions, 2010 Foreign-born population, in millions United States 42.8 Russian Federation Germany Saudi Arabia Canada United Kingdom Spain France Australia India Source: World Bank, UNPD. * Only countries with more than 1 million residents R. Münz page 16 March 16, 2011
17 Top 10 immigration countries* Share of foreign-born population in % of resident population, 2010 Share of foreign-born population, in % of resident population 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Quatar 86.5% United Arab Emirates Kuwait 70.0% 68.8% Jordan Singapore Israel 40.7% 40.4% 45.9% Oman Saudi Arabia Switzerland New Zealand 28.4% 27.8% 23.2% 22.4% Source: World Bank, UNPD. * Only countries with more than 1 million residents R. Münz page 17 March 16, 2011
18 Magnet societies US, EU27/EEA/CH, Russia, the Gulf + Australia are home or host to 60% of the world s migrant population BUT: 214 million migrants are only 3% of the global R. Münz population page 18 March 16, 2011
19 European migration Page 19 March 16, 2011
20 From emigration to immigration: ERSTE GROUP The main direction changed only recently 3,000,000 Immigration minus emigration (= net migration), years of net emigration 25 years of net immigration 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000 Source: Eurostat. Page 20 March 16, 2011
21 Net migration in Europe Net migration, annual average rate, per inhabitants below -5%. -5% to -2% -2% to 0% 0 to +2 +2% to +5% above +5% Source: Eurostat, UNDP. Page 21 March 16, 2011
22 Net migration in Europe Net migration, annual average rate, per inhabitants below -5%. -5% to -2% -2% to 0% 0 to +2 +2% to +5% above +5% Source: Eurostat, UNDP. Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Page Darstellung: 22 Humboldt-Universität Berlin March 16, 2011
23 Net migration in Europe Net migration, annual average rate, per inhabitants below -5%. -5% to -2% -2% to 0% 0 to +2 +2% to +5% above +5% Source: Eurostat, UNDP. Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Page Darstellung: 23 Humboldt-Universität Berlin March 16, 2011
24 Net migration in Europe Net migration, annual average rate, per inhabitants below -5%. -5% to -2% -2% to 0% 0 to +2 +2% to +5% above +5% Source: Eurostat, UNDP. Page 24 March 16, 2011
25 Net migration in Europe Net migration, annual average rate, per inhabitants below -5%. -5% to -2% -2% to 0% 0 to +2 +2% to +5% above +5% Source: Eurostat, UNDP. Page 25 March 16, 2011
26 Net migration in Europe Net migration, annual average rate, per inhabitants below -5%. -5% to -2% -2% to 0% 0 to +2 +2% to +5% above +5% Source: Eurostat, UNDP. Page 26 March 16, 2011
27 Share of immigrants in Europe Foreign-born population as % of total population, 2010 Source: UNDP. Page 27 March 16, 2011
28 Today Page 28 March 16, 2011
29 Europe s mobility space (Schengen) Page 29 March 16, 2011
30 European migration regime by citizenship / ERSTE GROUP country of origin and destination country EU 2 citizens. EU 10 citizens transitional regime über -2 bis 0 with exceptions über 0 bis +2 über +2 bis +5 free access for EU 10 and partly for EU 2 liberalized regime EEA+CH Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Page Darstellung: 30 Humboldt-Universität Berlin March 16, 2011
31 European mobility and migration 13 old + 10 new EU member states territory residency labor market Bulgaria, Romania citizenship UK, Ireland Rainer Muenz Non-EU Schengen/EEA/ EFTA states (+CH) page 31 Brussels, Nov.19, 2010
32 Theme park: EU mobility and citizenship Rainer Muenz page 32 Brussels, Nov.19, 2010
33 Contribution of migration and mobility to Europe s population R. Münz page 33 March 16, 2011
34 Natural change in EU-27 Births minus deaths, annual average rate, (per inhabitants) Source: Eurostat R. Münz page 34 March 16, 2011
35 Net migration in EU-27 Immigration minus emigration, annual average rate, (per inhabitants) Source: Eurostat R. Münz page 35 March 16, 2011
36 Total population increase in EU-27 Natural change plus net migration, annual average rate, (per inhabitants) Source: Eurostat R. Münz page 36 March 16, 2011
37 Population increase in EU-27 is mainly due to net migration Contribution of net migration and natural change to total population increase, EU-27, Net migration contributes over 70% to total population increase in EU in millions Net migration ~ 72,6% Population increase 0.5 Natural increase ~ 27,4% 0.0 Source: Eurostat R. Münz page 37 March 16, 2011
38 Immigration brings in a much younger population into EU Age structure of population and immigrants in EU-27 Median EU-27: 40.6 years Median immigrants: 28.4 years Source: Eurostat R. Münz page 38 March 16, 2011
39 Contribution of migration to global development and wealth Page 39 March 16, 2011
40 Remittances Page 40 March 16, 2011
41 Remittances amount to over 400 billion US$ globally Remittances to emerging markets and total 500 Remittances e (2011f f), in billions e 2011f 2012f Emerging markets World Source: World Bank, UNPD. Page 41 March 16, 2011
42 To emerging markets over 300 billion US$ are sent every year Remittances to emerging markets, 2010 Source: IFAD. Page 42 March 16, 2011
43 Remittances are important contributions to origin countries Top 10 remittance-receiving countries, 2009 Top 10 recipients of migrant remittances, in US$ billions, 2010e Top 10 recipients of migrant remittances, in % of GDP, % 28% 25% 23% 23% 22% 22% 19% % 16% India China Mexico Philippines France Germany Bangladesh Belgium Spain Nigeria Tajikistan Tonga Lesotho Moldova Nepal Lebanon Samoa Honduras Guyana El Salvador Source: World Bank, UNPD. Page 43 March 16, 2011
44 and a considerable economic factor in host countries Top 10 remittance-sending countries, 2009 Top 10 senders of migrant remittances, in US$ billions, 2009 Top 10 senders of migrant remittances, in % of GDP, ,3 20% 17% 26,0 10% 19,6 9% 18,6 8% 15,9 7% 7% 13,0 12,6 10,6 5% 5% 9,9 8,1 4% United States Saudi Arabia Switzerland Russian Federation Germany Italy Spain Luxembourg Kuwait Netherlands Luxembourg Lebanon Oman Maldives Kuwait Bahrain Saudi Arabia Guinea-Bissau Guyana Tongo Source: World Bank, UNPD. Page 44 March 16, 2011
45 40% of global remittances come from Western and Central Europe Remittances from W. and C. Europe, in US$ millions, Switzerland* Germany Spain Italy Luxembourg* Netherlands United Kingdom Norway France Czech Republic Belgium 3,642 2,620 2,625 2,030 5,048 5,048 4,560 4,776 4,541 4,380 4,217 3,826 3,689 3,161 2,698 7,561 8,437 8,431 7,830 6,831 9,280 11,326 11,287 10,922 13,689 12,454 12,718 14,377 14,976 14,656 15, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 * Some remittances are related to border residents working in one country during the day but living in Source: IOM, World Migration Report a neighbouring country. These workers are not, strictly speaking, considered to be migrants. 16, ,954 in US$ millions Page 45 March 16, 2011
46 Education Page 46 March 16, 2011
47 Regional differences in tertiary enrolment rates are widening Gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education, Source: OECD. Page 47 March 16, 2011
48 Why do highly skilled consider to work abroad? Source: Manpower. Page 48 March 16, 2011
49 Share of tertiary educated people having ERSTE GROUP migrated into a or another OECD-country <2% <5% <10% <20% >20% Source: OECD. Page 49 March 16, 2011
50 Destinations of highly educated migrants from Central and Eastern Europe Russia Latvia Moldova Ukraine Hungary Poland Romania Belarus Croatia Czech Republic Lithuania Albania Slovenia Estonia Bosnia and Herzegovi Bulgaria Slovakia Serbia and Montenegr Macedonia in % Red: N America Green: EU 15 Blue: other Europe Yellow: Other Page 50 March 16, 2011
51 Europe attracts much fewer highly educated migrants than the US 15 Non-OECD OECD origin 10 million 5 Low Low Middle High Middle High 0 Source: OECD. Europe America Page 51 March 16, 2011
52 Brain drain brain gain Share of US-immigrants with and without tertiary education, by origin countries Mexico Jamaica Cuba Bahamas Canada China Iran Nigeria India 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% with tertiary graduation without tertiary graduation Page 52 March 16, 2011
53 Outlook Page 53 March 16, 2011
54 Why do developed societies need migrants? Page 54 March 16, 2011
55 Labour migration as answer to labour force shortages? Page 55 March 16, 2011
56 Development of labour force and support ratio without migration Zero migration, constant labour force participation rate % % 84% 80% 60% % % 20% % Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Source: Own calculations based on Europop Page 56 March 16, 2011
57 Development of labour force and support ratio + 50mn migrants Migration, constant labour force participation rate % % % % 80% 60% 40% 20% % Labor force Age group 65+/labor force Source: Own calculations based on Europop 2008 Page 57 March 16, 2011
58 Guest worker programs in 1960s and 1970s were a first try Page 58 March 16, 2011
59 Permanent immigrants do not help to solve the ageing problem Page 59 March 16, 2011
60 Aging Population by age groups, 1950, 2000 and 2050 Source: UN Population Division, The 2008 Revision Population Database. Page 60 March 16, 2011
61 but migration can mitigate a mismatch between supply and demand for labour Page 61 March 16, 2011
62 Agriculture, especially harvesting Page 62 March 16, 2011
63 Health care, nursing Page 63 March 16, 2011
64 Tourism, hospitality, catering Page 64 March 16, 2011
65 Construction Page 65 March 16, 2011
66 Highly skilled Page 66 March 16, 2011
67 This could partly be achieved by a higher labour force participation rate Page 67 March 16, 2011
68 Compared to US and JP, EU has a low labour force participation rate Labour force participation rate, Page 68 March 16, 2011
69 Only few countries show labour force participation rates of above 65% Labour force participation rate of age group 15-64, in %, 2007 under to to to and more no data Source: Eurostat, National Statistical Offices. Page 69 March 16, 2011
70 Notably youth, women and elderly have low participation rates Labour force participation rate by age and sex, 2009 Page 70 March 16, 2011
71 The elderly is employed in CH and some Scandinavian countries most Employment rate (1) of the elderly (55-64), 2008 Source: Eurostat (1) Employment rates represent employed persons as a percentage of the same age population. (2) Targets set by the European Council in Lisbon (2000) and Stockholm (2001), to be achieved by an Page 71 March 16, 2011
72 Modern alternative: Temporary and circular migration Page 72 March 16, 2011
73 Temporary and circular migration should be of benefit for all parties Flexibility Remittances Additional labour force Host country Source country No brain drain Vacancies fill Labour migrants New ideas Knowledge Skills New businesses Page 73 March 16, 2011
74 However: Europe s ageing societies cannot fix their problems just by recruiting temporary migrants Page 74 March 16, 2011
75 Thank you for your attention Page 75 March 16, 2011
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