Housing market report

Transcription

1 Australian Capital City Market Report Prepared June Dr Andrew Wilson, Senior Economist Australian Property Monitors

2 Strong autumn launching pad for higher winter activity National overview Australia s capital city housing markets have generally concluded a strong autumn selling season, particularly the major cities of Sydney and Melbourne. Although the Reserve Bank has elected to leave interest rates on hold over June, the stimulus effect of historically low mortgage rates continues to be a significant driver of market activity. The lower dollar will provide a lift to those export-enhanced local economies, particularly in regard to the mining and tourism industries. The federal budget has forecast falling economic growth and rising unemployment over the next year, which will provide headwinds for housing markets where local economies are underperforming. Despite these predictions, latest unemployment data for April was encouraging, falling from 5.6 percent over March to 5.5 percent. April retail sales were also positive rising by 0.2 percent over the month as consumer confidence lifted on the back of lower interest rates. Latest economic growth figures for Australia had the economy growing by 0.6 percent over the March quarter to be up by a moderate 2.6 percent over the year. The stockmarket has however weakened over recent weeks following a solid revival through most of, which may prove a negative for prestige markets, particularly in Sydney, where buyer activity in that sector has remain relatively subdued. Although Australia s economic performance remains under watch, buyer activity in most housing markets continues to grow, with the normally quieter winter selling season well-positioned for a solid performance on the back of rising buyer momentum through autumn. Median prices, national 16% 14% % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Cash rate Apr Oct source: RBA Median prices: 3 months to end April Median price Quarterly change Yearly change Sydney $672, % 3.5% Melbourne $539, % 3.2% Brisbane $437, % 0.3% Adelaide $432, % 0.1% Perth $595, % 6.7% Canberra $580, % 7.1% Gold Coast $460, % 2.2% National $554, % 3.3% Median price Quarterly change Yearly change $478, % 2.1% $405, % 2.2% $348, % -6.4% $281, % -0.4% $405, % -0.6% $378, % 3.3% $370, % -5.4% $421, % 1.1% National June 2

3 Sydney The Sydney housing market continued to strengthen through with auction clearance rates rising to near-record levels. The auction clearance rate for units of 74.9 percent was second only to the 76.3 percent recorded in Similarly, the auction clearance rate for houses of 65.3 percent was the fourth highest recorded over the last 23 years, behind only 2001, 2002 and Sydney is now clearly the best performing local economy, with an unemployment rate of 4.9 percent in April, the lowest of all the major capitals. Other leading indicators of economic activity such as retail sales, also position Sydney as a leading economic performer. Investors and mid-range upgraders are currently highly active in Sydney, with both the first home buyer market and the prestige market remaining relatively subdued. Sydney s inner west region and upper north shore remain particularly popular with buyers. Auction clearance rates, Sydney * 80% 70% 60% 50% Median prices, Sydney $700k Auction clearance rate 68% % 28k 55% % -16.8% 57% % -.9 % 40% Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 11 Nov 13 Apr Oct * January has been excluded due to low number of auctions QoQ: +1.1% YoY: +4.7% Inner QoQ: +6.6% YoY: +6.6% Can- Bankstown QoQ: +0.9% YoY: +7.4% QoQ: +3.5% YoY: +6.2% Upper QoQ: +4.9% YoY: +5.0% ern Beaches QoQ: -0.5% YoY: +6.1% Lower QoQ: +4.8% YoY: +5.1% City & East QoQ: +2.7% YoY: +3.5% QoQ: +2.0% YoY: +2.7% QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +2.9% Inner QoQ: +0.9% YoY: +0.6% Can- Bankstown QoQ: -2.3% YoY: +6.3% QoQ: -1.8% YoY: +4.7% Upper QoQ: -3.6% YoY: -0.9% ern Beaches QoQ: -1.2% YoY: +0.6% Lower QoQ: +2.8% YoY: +4.2% City & East QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +0.8% QoQ: -0.9% YoY: +3.5% QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April. Sydney June 3

4 Melbourne Melbourne s housing market has risen since the Easter holiday period, with auction clearance rates on the rise over April and. Auction listing numbers also rose over this period, with more than 700 extra properties offered for auction compared to the same period a year ago. This indicates that seller-confidence is on the rise in a market that continues to perform at three-year highs. The Melbourne market has been sustained by upper-price, inner-city home sales, although a more general pattern of buyer activity is emerging. Middle-ring, mid-price range suburbs, particularly to the east of the city, have attracted increased buyer activity. s to the first home owners grant, announced by the local state government, will impact on the Melbourne market, as buyers rush to take advantage of the grant for established home purchases before it expires on the 30th June. The local Melbourne economy does however remain under a cloud, with the announcement of job cuts, particularly in the manufacturing industry, contributing to the highest unemployment rate of the mainland capitals, which was at 6.2 percent in April. Auction clearance rates, Melbourne * 90% 80% 70% 60% Median prices, Melbourne Auction clearance rate 70% % 44k 57% % -2.8% 64% % 34.2% 50% 40% Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 11 Nov 13 Apr Oct * January has been excluded due to low number of auctions QoQ: +7.3% YoY: +3.5% QoQ: +4.4% YoY: +5.7% Inner QoQ: +8.4% YoY: +7.4% Inner QoQ: +4.9% YoY: +2.1% East QoQ: +2.1% YoY: +4.1% Inner East QoQ: +8.3% YoY: +3.7% Outer East QoQ: +5.5% YoY: +6.4% East QoQ: +2.6% YoY: +4.0% QoQ: -0.4% YoY: -3.0% QoQ: -5.1% YoY: -7.7% Inner QoQ: +3.2% YoY: -0.4% Inner QoQ: +14.3% YoY: +7.5% East QoQ: +11.1% YoY: +6.7% Inner East QoQ: +8.6% YoY: +3.1% Outer East QoQ: +9.9% YoY: +0.9% East QoQ: +3.5% YoY: +3.5% QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April. Melbourne June 4

5 Brisbane Positive signs continue to emerge that the nascent recovery in the Brisbane housing market, evident over the past year, may be sustained. The Brisbane economy now appears to be back in town, with a sharp fall in the local unemployment rate over April, falling from 6.3 percent to just 5.1 percent. It is no coincidence that the rise in Brisbane s unemployment rate over 20 provided a significant impediment to housing market confidence and buyer activity in that city. Buyer activity remains solid in Brisbane s established middle-ring suburbs to the north and west of the city. Redland City is also proving popular with Brisbane buyers. First home buyers remain subdued; however investors are increasingly recognising the potential of Brisbane, with its high yields and plenty of upside for capital growth. Gross rental yield by city, March 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Median prices, Brisbane Apr Oct Auction clearance rate 43% % 27k 31% 6 8.4% 0.4% 33% %.3% Syd Melb Bris Ade Per Can Dar Hob Nat, houses only Caboolture QoQ: -4.3% YoY: -5.0% NW Inner QoQ: -4.7% YoY: +0.3% Caboolture QoQ: -14.5% YoY: -19.5% NW Inner QoQ: -2.5% YoY: -4.1% Pine Rivers QoQ: +1.0% YoY: +2.8% Inner QoQ: +3.5% YoY: +4.6% Pine Rivers QoQ: -20.9% YoY: -17.8% Inner QoQ: -2.0% YoY: -4.1% NW Outer QoQ: -3.4% YoY: 0.0% SE Inner QoQ: +0.9% YoY: +0.9% NW Outer QoQ: -1.7% YoY: -8.7% SE Inner QoQ: 0.0% YoY: -10.6% SE Outer QoQ: -1.1% YoY: +1.1% Redland QoQ: +0.4% YoY: +3.9% SE Outer QoQ: +6.3% YoY: +5.2% Redland QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +1.3% Ipswich QoQ: +2.6% YoY: +2.6% Logan QoQ: -0.8% YoY: -2.2% Ipswich QoQ: -5.0% YoY: -15.0% Logan QoQ: -29.8% YoY: -41.7% QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April. Brisbane June 5

6 Adelaide Buyer activity in Adelaide remains subdued, reflecting the nature of the underperforming local economy where unemployment over April remained seemingly intractably high at 6.1 percent. Some positive signs from ABS home loan data for Adelaide, with the number of owneroccupied loans approved in Australia up by 3.5 percent over the first 3 months of this year, compared to the same period last year. Unemployment rate, by state April 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Median prices, Adelaide 1 6.5% k % -1.6% % 19.4% 1% 0% $100k Apr Oct Syd Melb Bris Ade Per Hob Dar Can source: ABS QoQ: -0.8% YoY: +1.6% QoQ: -3.1% YoY: +3.7% QoQ: +0.5% YoY: +1.7% East QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +1.1% QoQ: -3.2% YoY: -1.5% East QoQ: +0.9% YoY: +5.4% QoQ: +0.3% YoY: +4.4% QoQ: -0.3% YoY: -3.4% QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April. Adelaide June 6

7 Perth The Perth housing market can be expected to continue its upward trajectory of growth, with median prices to be at record levels sooner rather than later in. First home buyers remain active in the market motivated by the tight rental market and steeply rising rents. However, signs are beginning to emerge of strains on the local economy from the record levels of new arrivals, particularly given the apparent topping out of the resources boom. Perth s unemployment rate rose to 5.4 percent over April - the highest monthly level recorded for three years Median weekly asking rent, houses March $510 $490 Perth Median prices, Perth 4.6% 6.5% 7.4% $470 $450 $430 $410 $390 $370 $350 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar National Jun Sep Dec Apr Oct 23k 1.5% 9.3% QoQ: +3.9% YoY: +8.2% Central QoQ: -3.9% YoY: +6.5% East QoQ: +2.1% YoY: +7.9% QoQ: -2.7% YoY: 0.0% Central QoQ: -1.5% YoY: -0.5% East QoQ: +1.9% YoY: +6.0% QoQ: +1.2% YoY: +3.2% East QoQ: +2.1% YoY: +7.8% QoQ: +1.3% YoY: +0.1% East QoQ: +10.2% YoY: +15.1% QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April. Perth June 7

8 Canberra The Canberra housing market continues to tread water, weighed down by a faltering local economy and concerns about public sector job shedding, due to a deteriorating federal budget. Prices growth is expected to remain subdued as a consequence, with the April unemployment rate at 4.7 percent, the highest April rate recorded in the ABS series for the city, and well ahead of the 2.9 percent recorded over April the year before Unemployment rate, ACT Median prices, Canberra % 5.5% 4.9% Apr Oct Sep source: ABS Apr Oct 1.9k 13.8% 41.0% Belconnen QoQ: +1.1% YoY: +2.3% Gungahlin QoQ: +1.9% YoY: +7.0% Belconnen QoQ: +5.6% YoY: +7.6% Gungahlin QoQ: +10.0% YoY: +1.3% QoQ: +2.0% YoY: -0.8% QoQ: -7.9% YoY: -6.3% Woden Valley QoQ: -5.3% YoY: -0.1% QoQ: +.5% YoY: +3.1% Woden Valley QoQ: -9.3% YoY: -5.9% QoQ: -13.1% YoY: -7.2% Tuggeranong QoQ: +1.4% YoY: +2.5% Tuggeranong QoQ: +4.6% YoY: +3.9% QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April. Canberra June 8

9 Gold Coast The Gold Coast remains on track for a modest revival in buyer activity, following a prolonged period of subdued activity, similar to other major housing markets in -East Queensland that tend to move in sync. The performance of the local economy remains a concern however, with the latest April unemployment rate at 6.5 percent, well ahead of Brisbane at 5.1 percent, and the Sunshine Coast at 3.7 percent , Gold Coast Median prices, Gold Coast 9.0% 11.9 % 9.7% Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 11 Nov 13 Apr Oct 10k -17.2% -9.5% Gold Coast QoQ: +1.9% YoY: +5.7% Gold Coast QoQ: 0.0% YoY: +1.1% Gold Coast East QoQ: +6.3% YoY: -0.1% Gold Coast East QoQ: -1.2% YoY: -13.5% QoQ: Quarter on quarter change in median price. YoY: Year on year change in median price. Current period is 3 months to end of April. Gold Coast June Copyright Australian Property Monitors. Any reproduction of or reference to any part of this report must attribute Australian Property Monitors as the source.

10 Hobart Hobart s housing market remains subdued, reflecting the ongoing impact of a weak local economy. Hobart s unemployment rate over April was 6.8 percent, and remains the highest of all the capitals, with no real indication of an improvement in the near-term despite low interest rates. The housing market continues to bump along the bottom, with Tasmanian owner-occupier loans, for the March quarter, up just 1.3 percent compared to the same period last year. Darwin Darwin remains a housing market on the move, driven by an influx of workers and a shortage of accommodation, pushing up rents and prices. The latest unemployment data indicates that, similar to Perth, the Territory is having issues absorbing new job seekers, with a rate of 5.4 percent the highest monthly rate recorded for over 5 years. Data contained in this report is subject to revision as a result of time lags with the reporting and collection of sales transaction data. This monthly housing market report is produced for and used by both APM and Domain. Hobart and Darwin June 10