Fish Pool Introduksjon
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- Kristin Davis
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1 Fish Pool Introduksjon 1 Regulert markedsplass for fisk og sjømat med lisens av Finansdepartementet Kun finansielle oppgjør 200+ handelsmedlemmer 3,6 millarder NOK i kontrakter første halvår 2016
2 Agenda Hordaland på børs «oljefellen» Lakseprisen Erfaringer fra i fjor: investeringsmuligheter 2
3 Hordaland på Børs 3
4 I sommer: E
5 Hva er oljefellen? Lang periode med høye priser Høye kostnader og investeringer Plutselig store tap Året 2015: Statoil taper 37 mrd kroner 5
6 Oljefellen hva er det og hva er det ikke? ER: Store investeringer uten langsiktig inntektssikring: ingen bremselengde Er IKKE: Store investeringer, innovasjon, produktutvikling kombinert med langsiktig inntektssikring. 6
7 Oljefellen ikke laksefellen Utnytte syklusen i medgangstider Maksimere produksjonen. Gi selskapet tid til omstilling. Langsiktige kontrakter Resultat: lengre bremselengde 7
8 Prisutvikling
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 Holbergfondene August
18 Ukentlig spotpris 18
19 Høyere pris for oppdrettere valutafordel for kundene. 19
20 12 mnd forward viktigste indikator for aksjekurs 20
21 Hvilket selskap skal du velge? 21
22 Vedde på riktig hest? 14 EBIT/KG Q1-15 Siden MHG LSG SALM GSF NRS 22
23 Hvilken hest var rett? Marine Harvest Grieg Seafood % økning 103,40 134,85 30,4 % 29,10 53,00 82,1 % 23
24 Hvilken hest var rett? Plassering av 1 mill gav: % økning Investering 2015 Verdi nå % avkastning Marine Harvest 103,40 134,85 30,4 % aksjer ,- 30 % Grieg Seafood 29,10 53,00 82,1 % aksjer ,- 82 % 24
25 Hvilken hest var rett? Plassering av 1 mill gav: Marine Harvest Grieg Seafood Fish Pools kontrakten % økning 103,40 134,85 30,4 % 29,10 53,00 82,1 % Investering aksjer aksjer 41,40 61,40* 48,3 % 120 tonn Verdi nå ,- 30 % ,- 82 % % avkastning 340 % En enda raskere hest? 25
26 Praktisk: Investering i laksederivat Kjøp 10 tonn/mnd i 2016 Verdi: 120 tonn * 41,40 kr/kg = 5 millioner Marginkrav 20 % = 1 million Realisert gevinst jan til aug 80 t * 21 kr/kg = Urealisert gevinst sept til des 40 t * 18 kr/kg = Total gevinst pt kr/kg OPP laksepris kr/kg NED laksepris
27 Hvorfor bruker investorer Fish Pool? - Innsyn i markedet - Ren priseksponering (diversifisering) - Gearing (kapitalbinding) 27
28 Hvordan investere i Sjømat 1. Handle aksjer i oppdrettsselskaper 2. Handle futureskontrakter på Fish Pool 3. Kombinasjon av de to ovenfor - Short aksjen kjøp futures ved «overhetet» aksjekurs - Kjøp aksjen selg futures ved lav implisitt laksepris - Futures som diversifisering av investering 28
29
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