Hordaland på Børs Bergen 22 August 2013

Transcription

1 Hordaland på Børs Bergen 22 August 2013 Tor Magne Lønnum, CFO Follow us on 1 19 augusti 2013

2 Disclaimer Certain statements in this presentation are based on the beliefs of our management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to the management. Forwardlooking statements (other than statements of historical fact) regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, business strategy, plans and future objectives can generally be identified by terminology such as targets, believes, expects, aims, intends, plans, seeks, will, may, anticipates, continues or similar expressions. A number of different factors may cause the actual performance to deviate significantly from the forward-looking statements in this presentation including but not limited to general economic developments, changes in the competitive environment, developments in the financial markets, extraordinary events such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks, changes in legislation or case law and reinsurance. We urge you to read our annual report available on tryg.com for a discussion of some of the factors that could affect our future performance and the industry in which we operate. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialise or should any underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual financial condition or results of operations could materially differ from that described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated or expected. We are not under any duty to update any of the forward-looking statements or to conform such statements to actual results, except as may be required by law. 2

3 Tryg - quick overview Tryg is a non-life insurance company present in Denmark (No. 1), Norway (No. 3) and Sweden (No. 5). Gross premium split by segments 2013 Q m shares and a market cap of DKK 29.4bn (July 1) 56 Private Commercial Corporate Dividend policy: Payout ratio of 60 90% Aiming for a nominal stable increasing dividend DKK26 per share in dividend for DKKm Gross earned premium 19,948 20,314 Gross claims -15,783-14,675 Gross expenses -3,271-3,295 Insurance result 1,572 2,492 Net investment result Pre-tax result 1,603 3,017 Net result 1,140 2,208 Combined ratio No. of employees (FTE) 4,076 3,913 Shareholder s equity 9,007 10,979 Share performance since IPO Tryg Euro Insurance index 3 0 1/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Shareholder breakdown Danish institutional Non-Danish institutional Smaller shareholders TryghedsGruppen

4 Hvem er vi? Tryg Forsikring Vårt formål: Det handler om å være trygg Vi skaper trygghet og verdi for kunder, medarbeidere og aksjonærer Organisering Segmentsinndeling + Sverige Tryg Hva skal til: Vi skal være best i bransjen på: forsikring, mennesker og inntjening Privat Næringsliv Industri Sverige Antall medarbeidere 2012: Historie Denmark Norway Sweden 1728 Den store brannen i København. 30% av byens bygningsmasse brant ned Forsikringsselskapet Københavns Brand blir etablert Det norske forsikringsselskap Vesta blir etablert 1911 Tryg benyttes som selskapets navn i Danmark 1999 Tryg fusjonerer med Danmarks nest største bankgruppe, Unidanmark. I slutningen av 1999 bliver det norske forsikringsselskap Vesta en del av Tryg-konsernet 2000 Unidanmark fusjoneres inn i Nordea Tryg i Danmark smba kjøper Nordeas skadeforsikringsaktiviteter og danner TrygVesta Tryg blir notert på København Fondsbørs den 14. oktober Åpningskursen er 230 DKK. 4

5 Tryg Norge - Fakta Geografisk lokalisering Markedsandel NOK 47.4 bn/ EUR 6.4bn (Q1 13) Bodø Tromsø Harstad 15,0 24,3 Tryg If Gjensidige Percent Sparebank1 24,7 Other 10,8 Ålesund Førde Bergen Haugesund Stavanger Kristiansand Trondheim Gol Hamar Hønefoss Oslo Tønsberg Drammen Porsgrunn Fredrikstad 25,2 Historie Vi er en solid aktør, med store faglige ambisjoner. Vi er en stor og attraktiv arbeidsplass. Bergen er hovedkontor for den norske satsningen Vesta stiftes 1952 Vesta starter utplassering av livbøyer 1989 Skandia kjøper Vesta, Hygea danner Vital 1990 Vesta stifter Dial Forsikring, i dag Enter 1995 Vesta blir sekretariat for natteravnene 1999 Tryg kjøper Vesta 2002 Stiftelsen Tryg smba i Danmark kjøper Nordeas skadeforsikringsaktiviteteter, dvs. Tryg som også eier Vesta. TrygVesta børsnoteres til kurs DKK Vesta endrer navn til TrygVesta og blir en filial av Tryg 2010 TrygVesta endrer navn til Tryg 5

6 Insurance and key ratios Premiums Expenses Claims Return to investors Investment return 6

7 Structure of the Nordic insurance markets Nordic EUR 23.2bn (as at Q4-11) Norway NOK 48.9 bn/eur 6.5bn (as at Q1-2013) Percentage Tryg If Codan Gjensidige Länsförsäkringar Topdanmark Other 24.3 Tryg If Gjensidige Percentage Sparebank Other Sweden SEK 64.1bn/EUR 7.5bn (as at Q4-2012) Denmark DKK 49.8 bn/eur 6,7bn (as at Q1-2012) Percentage Moderna Länsforsäkringar If Codan Folksam Gjensidige Other Percentage Tryg Topdanmark Codan Alm. Brand Gjensdige If Other augusti 2013

8 Economic key figures Denmark % GDP Growth 0,3 1,3 Inflation 0,9 1,4 Unemployment 6,0 6,1 Current account balance in % of GDP 4,6 3,5 Budget balance in % of GDP -1,4-1,6 Public debt in % of GDP -44,5-43,0 Sweden % GDP Growth 1,5 2,5 Inflation 0,0 1,4 Unemployment 8,3 8,3 Current account balance in % of GDP 7,4 7,4 Budget balance in % of GDP -1,3-1,5 Public debt in % of GDP 40,7 41,4 Norway % GDP Growth 2,6 2,2 Inflation 1,9 1,4 Unemployment 3,6 3,7 Current account balance in % of GDP 11,1 12,3 Budget balance in % of GDP 11,5 12,6 Public debt in % of GDP 0,0 0,0 Source: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Nordea Markets, June augusti 2013

9 Combined ratio performance Premium hikes Premium hikes Efficiency programme 95 Smaller adjustments * H price increases of DKK 2.1bn implemented. Reduced combined ratio from 107 to price increases will improve underlying combined ratio operational focus with target to cut expenses and claims costs by DKK 1bn in total. *IFRS from Previous years are Danish GAAP. Data before 2009 is not corrected for the sale of Marine Hull business. 9

10 CR target 10 Combined ratio target % < < Uncertainty CR target Q Expense/claims initiatives Claims inflation above CPI Weather and large claims Legislation etc (WC, taxes..) Interest ROE after tax 40% 30% 20% 10% H % ROE target CR at 90 or below from Q Expense ratio <15 in 2015 ROE 20% after tax

11 Strategic initiatives - Value creation in mature markets Increased price differentiation Commercial back on track Building foundation in Sweden Expenses/claims reductions Simplification of products and systems 11

12 Internal efficiency programme improved operations and ensured yet another good result despite weather claims and the highest level of large claims in four years Pre-tax profit Pre-tax profit of DKK 688m (DKK 701m). Technical result of DKK 684m (DKK 831m). DKKm 1,200 1,403 1,447 Combined ratio 86.7 compared to Gross claims ratio of 73.7 (68.7) positively affected by initiatives but offset by high level of large claims and weather claims of DKK 272m (DKK 89m). 0 Q Q H H 2013 Combined ratio Expense ratio improved to 15.6 (16.5). Interest rate level affects combined ratio negatively by 0.4 pp Q Q H H 2013 Premiums dropped 2.6% reflecting profitability focus, profit sharing and high retention. Return on equity 18.7% after tax. Investment after technical interest DKKm Q Q H H

13 Important news in Q Internal efficiency programme on track Tryg Plus - new customer concept Tryg Back-up Tryg ID Tryg Safe in life Tryg Home alarm Four new price differentiation products launched New chairman Number of core IT systems reduced S&P reaffirms Tryg s A- /rating in July Tryg Home Alarm 13

14 Q2 results 2013 Key figures Q2/1H 2012/13 DKKm Q Q H H 2013 Gross premium income 5,057 4,962 10,042 9,900 Claims, net of reinsurance -3,182-3,277-6,774-6,702 Gross expenses ,632-1,545 Technical result ,192 1,184 Return on investment after technical result Profit/loss before tax ,403 1,447 Profit/loss ,071 1,089 Claims ratio, net of reinsurance Gross expense ratio Combined ratio

15 Geographical segments 15

16 Combined ratio development in business areas - Commercial and Corporate impacted by high level of large claims Combined ratio Private (DK & NO) Combined ratio Commercial (DK & NO) Q Q H H 2013 Combined ratio Corporate Group CR Q2 2013: 86.7 Q2 2012: Q Q H H 2013 Combined ratio Private Sweden Q Q H H Q Q H H

17 Follow up on efficiency programme Q Savings of DKK 335m achieved so far Targeted and achieved savings on claims DKKm DK: ~70% usage of preferred car repair shops Q2: 75m E-auction in good progress 250 Q1: 45m Customers benefit from increased use of Scalepoint 250 Savings in expenses according to plan FTE reduced from 3,913 to 3,810 in 2013 Business units next step in plan Total savings on claims 2012 Achieved Achieved 2013 Target Achieved savings in expenses Efficiency programme up until 2015 DKKm Q2: 20m Q1: 20m 2012: 55m Total savings expenses 2013 Achieved Target 17

18 Expense ratio development Expense ratio improved from 16.5 in Q to 15.6 in Q Expense ratio Nominal costs on group level reduced Q/Q to DKK 764m (DKK 821m) Increased span of control Number of manager reduced by 10% Reduced number of offices Outsourcing H FTE development Nominal costs in business areas 4,119 4,101 4,076 DKKm 3,911 3,913 3,839 3, Q Q

19 Topline and technical result Gross earned premiums, DKKm Technical result, DKKm 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 5,057 4, ,312 1, ,000 1,000 2,405 2, Q Q Q Q Private Commercial Corporate Sweden Private Commercial Corporate Sweden Strong balanced technical results in all areas. Efficiency programme continues to deliver as planned. High level of large and weather claims impacted Commercial and Corporate by DKK 224m. against DKK 68m in Q Gross earned premiums drop of 2.6% (1.9% in DKK) related to: Strong profitabilty triggered higher profitsharing on partner agreements. Continued high retention level in Private and improved retention level in Commercial. Sweden affected by termination of Nordea agreement. 19

20 Customer retention Private 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% Q1 08 Q4 08 Q3 09 Q2 10 Q1 11 Q4 11 Q3 12 Q2 13 Commercial 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% Q1 08 Q4 08 Q3 09 Q2 10 Q1 11 Q4 11 Q3 12 Q

21 Private average premiums House insurance average premium (index 2008 = ) Average premiums increase Y/Y 3.0% 3.2% Motor insurance average premium (index 2008 = ) Average premiums increase Y/Y % 3.6%

22 CR and claims ratios Q Underlying development is adjusted for: Large claims Underlying claims, net Q / Q Weather related claims Run-off and interest Improvement in underlying claims ratio on group level driven by own initiatives Lower discounting rates impacts CR negatively by 0.4 %-point. Q Q Group Private Commercial Corporate Sweden Claims ratio development - Group Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q Gross claims ratio Claims ratio, net of reinsurance 22

23 Large claims, weather claims and run-off - highest level of large claims in four years Large claims, net DKKm Weather claims, net DKKm Q Q H H Q Q H H 2013 Large claims gross DKKm Run-off net, effect on combined ratio 7.0% Q % 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.0% 3.7% 4.7% 5.0% 4.5% 5.2% Q Q

24 Assets allocation Total assets Q Equities (5) Real estate (5) Cov. Bonds (75) Percentage Govt. Bonds (3) Bank deposits/bonds (10) 78 High yield (2) Free portfolio Q Match portfolio Q Percentage Percentage 92 Cov. Bonds (88) Govt. (3) Bank deposits/bonds (9) Figures in brackets are Q

25 Dividend policy - creating long-term value for our shareholders Payout ratio of 60 90% Aiming for a nominal stable increasing dividend Ambitious ROE target of 20% after tax calls for disciplined capital approach Adjustment of the capital level can be made via share buy back Total distribution to shareholders DKK per share New dividend policy Cash dividend Ordinary buyback Extra-ordinary buyback 25