2015 GLOBAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Transcription

1 2015 GLOBAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Thank you for downloading emarketer s Global Media Intelligence Report Executive Summary. The full report, produced for the fifth time this year by emarketer in collaboration with Starcom MediaVest Group, spans 48 countries in six regions, with more than 500 charts containing data from over 70 sources worldwide. It is the most comprehensive compilation of information we ve ever created on the state of global digital media. Available exclusively to emarketer subscribers, the fifth annual Global Media Intelligence Report is the definitive report for all business executives who need to stay on top of digital trends worldwide and require benchmarks to support their decisions for global initiatives. The Global Media Intelligence Report is just one piece of our unparalleled coverage of digital trends around the world: emarketer s Digital World Atlas is another valuable source of global data. It allows subscribers to quickly scan top-level information by country, such as population estimates, internet users, mobile phone users, digital ad spending and broadband penetration figures. Our dedicated Country Pages cover more than 20 of the most important markets worldwide both developed and emerging nations. Here clients can access emarketer reports, articles, briefs, interviews, charts and PowerPoint decks specifically focused on each country. Compare Geographies/Dynamic Charting feature enables users to compare emarketer forecasts for a specific metric, such as digital ad spending between 2012 and 2017, across as many as 20 countries and six regions all on the same chart and at the same time. To explore the emarketer platform and plans, visit us here:

2 Global Media Intelligence Report 2015 Overview Developments in the past year both good and bad have demonstrated yet again how closely all parts of the world are now interdependent. For example, the global fall in oil prices has meant a welcome drop in costs for countries that import oil and other petroleum products, including most of Western Europe. But it s a painful shock for oilexporting nations, especially those in the Middle East and Latin America that derive a big share of revenues from those sales. Changes of that magnitude can directly affect the national mood, government policies, business confidence and consumer spending. In Q3 2015, several of the adverse factors we noted in last year s Global Media Intelligence report still weigh on the world s prospects for economic growth and stability. Select Digital Usage Metrics Worldwide, 2015 & 2019 % of population Mobile phone users Internet users Mobile phone internet users Smartphone users Tablet users 13.8% 20.0% 25.7% 32.2% 35.2% % 42.6% 61.1% 51.5% 67.1% One is the eurozone crisis, which remains a major cause of concern. A third bailout of the Greek economy, announced in mid-august, calmed nerves in the very short term but didn t alter the essential circumstances that sparked a degree of panic earlier this year. The conditions imposed on Greece by its troika of main creditors are no less difficult than those that led to the resounding success of the anti-austerity Syriza party in January 2015 elections so further volatility seems inevitable. Elsewhere in Western Europe, France and Italy also face severe economic problems. On the other hand, Portugal, Spain and the UK have maintained a positive trajectory, emerging well from the long-term effects of the recession that began in In the US still the leading engine of world trade and consumption the recovery continues, judging by a range of indicators. But performance in Q was not as robust as expected and progress has been uneven; as a result, much of Latin America hasn t registered the boost in trade and consumer confidence that normally follows an uptick in the US. Similarly, previously solid GDP gains in several developing markets have slowed, often due to lower demand from advanced economies. One huge worry is China, where GDP growth has been sliding since July Apart from the slowdown in China, other destabilizing factors include the worsening situation in the Middle East, where violence is endemic in Libya, Syria, Gaza and Iraq. The Islamic State (IS) a relatively minor player until last year is now a force to be reckoned with. At the same time, the economic scenario is improving in many countries, including India, Peru and South Africa. Against this background sometimes, indeed, because of it the rise of digital technology is unstoppable. The full Global Media Intelligence report, available to emarketer clients, includes demographic breakdowns of populations and media audiences in the following countries around the world: Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Chile China Colombia Czech Republic Denmark Egypt Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia Ireland Italy Japan Latvia Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Nigeria Norway Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Saudi Arabia Singapore Slovakia South Africa South Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland Thailand Turkey United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Uruguay Venezuela

3 Asia-Pacific In many developing economies in Asia-Pacific, large numbers of residents still rely heavily on traditional media platforms, and television in particular. Newspapers remain broadly popular throughout the region but aren t suitable for all advertisers, as readership rates depend on literacy levels. Meanwhile, mobile platforms offer the best option for many consumers, including those on lower incomes, to go online. Indonesia offers a case in point. According to research, 27.0% of the country s adult urban population accessed the internet with a mobile phone in 2014, compared with just 21.0% the previous year. Across the region, smartphones and the accompanying data tariffs are becoming much more affordable too. For many members of Asia-Pacific s emerging middle class, advanced handsets will be the preferred route to the internet in the months and years ahead. emarketer predicts that the regional population of smartphone users will pass 1 billion this year. China alone will account for more than 525 million of the total. Central & Eastern Europe The level of smartphone usage in Central and Eastern Europe is still lower than in many other parts of the world. emarketer estimates that fewer than half the region s mobile phone users will have an advanced handset this year, compared with more than 65% in Western Europe and nearly 74% in North America. Yet smartphone usage is expanding faster in Central and Eastern Europe than in any other region. The Czech Republic is typical of the countries undergoing this transformation. emarketer predicts that the number of smartphone users there will rise by 21.2% this year, as penetration approaches 45%. Meanwhile, though, the smartphone population is dominated by young, affluent male consumers. In H2 2014, over 54% of smartphone owners in the Czech Republic polled by MEDIAN s.r.o were ages 12 to 34, half (49.7%) hailed from the most well-to-do households and more than 55% were male. In most Central and Eastern European countries, social networking has now spread beyond the ranks of early adopters, and is increasingly popular across all demographics, even when overall penetration isn t especially high. In Poland, however, social network users still comprise one of the more distinctive of all media audiences. Although more than 56% of internet users ages 15 to 60 visited social media last year, women accounted for more than 58% of that group, and 63.2% were ages 15 to 34. Smartphone Users and Penetration in Asia-Pacific, by Country, millions and % of mobile phone users Smartphone users (millions) China* India Indonesia Japan South Korea Philippines Vietnam Thailand Australia Malaysia Hong Kong Singapore Asia-Pacific , , , , ,483.4 Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users) Singapore South Korea Hong Kong Australia China* Japan Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam India Asia-Pacific 83.1% 79.5% 76.6% 74.3% 48.1% 44.0% 42.6% 34.9% 32.6% 32.0% 30.4% 21.2% 25.1% 37.3% 85.2% 82.3% 80.7% 78.4% 50.9% 48.9% 46.6% 39.2% 37.1% 36.6% 36.2% 26.3% 29.0% 40.8% 86.3% 84.3% 84.0% 81.0% 53.3% 52.4% 49.2% 42.8% 40.4% 40.0% 41.5% 29.8% 32.1% 43.6% 87.2% 86.0% 85.9% 82.6% 56.0% 55.1% 51.3% 45.8% 43.2% 43.1% 46.8% 33.4% 34.5% 46.2% 88.0% 87.6% 87.2% 83.6% 59.3% 56.9% 54.3% 48.1% 45.4% 46.1% 50.9% 36.0% 36.4% 48.7% 88.9% 88.4% 88.3% 84.3% 63.3% 58.4% 57.3% 50.0% 47.6% 48.4% 54.6% 39.0% 37.8% 51.5% Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; *excludes Hong Kong Social Network Users and Penetration in Central & Eastern Europe, by Country, Social network users (millions) Central & Eastern Europe Social network user penetration (% of internet users) Central & Eastern Europe 78.0% 70.2% 73.1% 79.0% 71.9% 74.5% 79.3% 72.8% 75.2% 79.2% 73.5% 75.6% 79.5% 74.1% 76.1% 79.9% 74.8% 76.6% 80.2% 75.0% 76.9% Social network user penetration (% of population) Central & Eastern Europe 42.4% 32.4% 35.7% 46.0% 35.4% 38.9% 48.6% 38.0% 41.5% 50.8% 40.0% 43.6% 52.7% 42.1% 45.6% 54.3% 44.1% 47.5% 55.8% 45.8% 49.1% Note: internet users who use a social network via any device at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding Source: emarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July

4 Latin America Until recently, import taxes and other charges kept smartphones beyond the reach of most consumers in Latin America. Now many residents are making up for lost time, encouraged by the arrival of cheaper models. emarketer estimates that nearly 160 million people in Latin America will use an advanced handset in In 2016, just two countries, Brazil and Mexico, will be home to nearly 100 million smartphone users. But there is much more growth to come; regional smartphone penetration hasn t yet passed 40%, though it will do so this year. TV is popular throughout Latin America, but especially so in Chile. In that country, an estimated 97.7% of residents 12 and older watched free-to-air TV content each week in In addition, 68.0% watched cable television and 19.6% had access to satellite television programs. At the same time, some TV consumption seems to be transferring to digital platforms. Chile registered one of the highest regional gains in digital video viewing last year, as the share of residents watching in the 30 days prior to polling shot from 17.5% to 39.1%. Males outnumbered females in this audience by 53.5% to 46.5%. Middle East & Africa Predictably, internet penetration remains far higher in wealthy states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) than in Egypt or South Africa. Yet some of the less developed nations in the region already boast far larger online audiences than the most prosperous Middle East countries. For example, Nigeria will be home to more than 63 million monthly internet users this year, emarketer estimates, compared with 17.5 million individuals online regularly in Saudi Arabia. Overall, million people in the Middle East and Africa are expected to use the internet at least once per month in In 2019, that number will approach 575 million. Patriarchal traditions are still strong in much of the Middle East, and continue to influence media consumption. Males have often had higher incomes than females, for example, as well as greater access to digital devices and greater freedom to engage with the internet. So it s not surprising that last year, males accounted for 58.2% of mobile phone internet users in Egypt, 57.9% of those in Kuwait and 54.4% of those in UAE. Yet Saudi Arabia presented a different picture: Females accounted for nearly 59% of residents ages 15 and older who accessed the web with a mobile phone in Females also outnumbered males among smartphone owners in Saudi Arabia, by 55.7% to 44.3%. Smartphone Users and Penetration in Latin America, by Country, millions and % of mobile phone users Smartphone users (millions) Brazil Mexico Colombia Argentina Chile Peru Latin America Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users) Chile Colombia Mexico Argentina Brazil Peru Latin America 49.7% 45.3% 40.1% 36.7% 31.3% 28.7% 22.4% 33.1% 55.5% 51.4% 47.4% 43.5% 37.6% 33.5% 27.6% 39.3% 60.9% 57.4% 54.1% 49.3% 43.3% 38.2% 32.0% 44.9% 65.7% 62.1% 60.4% 53.0% 48.2% 42.5% 35.9% 49.7% 69.7% 66.0% 66.2% 56.7% 52.0% 46.5% 39.5% 53.9% 72.8% 69.7% 70.0% 60.2% 54.8% 49.7% 42.3% 57.0% Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month Internet Users and Penetration in the Middle East & Africa, Internet users (millions) Nigeria Egypt South Africa Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Middle East & Africa Internet user growth (% change) South Africa 18.2% 12.8% 10.5% 8.8% 7.2% 5.9% 5.1% Nigeria 21.0% 11.3% 9.5% 9.3% 10.3% 10.6% 10.4% Saudi Arabia 13.7% 8.9% 8.4% 7.9% 6.0% 5.8% 5.3% Egypt 13.2% 5.6% 6.3% 6.8% 7.4% 7.8% 7.0% United Arab Emirates 9.1% 7.1% 5.4% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.0% 17.5% 9.5% 8.0% 8.5% 8.8% 8.5% 7.9% Middle East & Africa 17.3% 9.5% 8.2% 8.4% 8.6% 8.5% 7.9% Internet user penetration (% of population in each group) United Arab Emirates 71.6% 74.6% 76.6% 77.6% 78.6% 79.6% 80.2% Saudi Arabia 55.0% 59.0% 63.0% 67.0% 70.0% 73.0% 75.8% South Africa 41.3% 46.8% 51.8% 56.3% 60.3% 63.8% 67.0% Egypt 40.0% 41.5% 43.3% 45.4% 48.0% 50.8% 53.5% Nigeria 30.0% 32.6% 34.8% 37.1% 40.0% 43.1% 46.5% 22.4% 23.9% 25.3% 26.8% 28.5% 30.2% 31.9% Middle East & Africa 26.0% 27.8% 29.5% 31.3% 33.2% 35.3% 37.3% Note: individuals of any age who use the internet from any location via any device at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding Source: emarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July

5 North America Thanks to a generally high standard of living, most households in North America have some disposable income, and highend digital devices such as tablets feature on many shopping lists. This year, an estimated 61.1% of US internet users will use a tablet at least once per month an audience of nearly 159 million. In Canada, more than 15 million people will be tablet users equivalent to 42.0% of the entire population. By the end of the forecast period, emarketer predicts that almost 200 million individuals in the region will be monthly tablet users. Underpinned by greater penetration of tablets, smartphones and other digital devices, digital video viewing is also surging ahead in the US. emarketer estimates that the number of residents watching video on digital platforms at least once per month will pass 204 million in 2015, and reach 220 million within three years. Internet users ages 12 to 34 will remain the keenest audience; more than 90% of this cohort will be regular viewers of digital video in Among older consumers, the likelihood of watching such content declines in direct correlation with age. For example, barely half (49.7%) of seniors 65 and older will watch digital video monthly this year but that share is expected to reach 59.0% in Tablet Users and Penetration in North America, by Country, Tablet users (millions) US Canada North America Tablet user penetration (% of internet users) US 53.8% 58.8% 61.1% 62.7% 63.6% 64.4% 65.3% Canada 42.8% 48.2% 52.1% 55.6% 57.4% 58.9% 60.0% North America 52.6% 57.7% 60.2% 62.0% 63.0% 63.9% 64.8% Tablet user penetration (% of population) US 41.8% 46.7% 49.4% 51.4% 52.7% 53.7% 54.5% Canada 33.7% 38.4% 42.0% 45.0% 47.0% 48.5% 49.5% North America 41.0% 45.9% 48.7% 50.7% 52.1% 53.2% 54.0% Note: individuals of any age who use a tablet at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding Source: emarketer, April 2015; confirmed and republished, July Western Europe With its advanced economies, robust digital infrastructure and history of technological innovation, it s easy to presume that Western Europe has almost uniformly high internet penetration. But this is far from true. In 2015, Denmark, Internet Users and Penetration in Western Europe, by Country, Internet users (millions) Germany UK France Italy Spain Netherlands Sweden Switzerland Denmark Norway Finland Ireland Western Europe Internet user growth (% change) Ireland 3.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% UK 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 1.4% Spain 3.8% 2.3% 2.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% Switzerland 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% France 2.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% Netherlands 1.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Germany 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% Denmark 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Italy 3.7% 1.3% 2.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% Norway 2.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% Finland 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% Sweden 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% Western Europe 2.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% Internet user penetration (% of population in each group) Norway 87.0% 87.0% 87.0% 87.0% 87.0% 87.0% Denmark 85.0% 86.0% 87.0% 87.0% 87.0% 87.0% Netherlands 85.0% 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% Switzerland 83.7% 84.7% 85.7% 86.7% 87.6% 88.4% Finland 82.9% 83.9% 84.8% 85.6% 86.4% 87.1% Sweden 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% UK 77.4% 78.8% 80.0% 81.0% 81.7% 82.2% Ireland 77.0% 78.0% 79.0% 79.9% 80.8% 81.7% Germany 76.8% 77.9% 78.8% 79.5% 79.9% 80.3% France 75.3% 76.4% 77.3% 78.1% 78.6% 79.1% Spain 66.2% 67.1% 67.9% 68.3% 68.6% 68.9% Italy 58.0% 58.6% 60.0% 60.3% 60.5% 60.7% 67.2% 68.2% 69.3% 70.0% 70.5% 71.0% Western Europe 72.6% 73.6% 74.6% 75.2% 75.6% 76.0% Note: individuals of any age who use the internet from any location via any device at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding

6 Norway and the Netherlands will all register at least 86.0% of residents going online once per month or more, emarketer estimates. In the UK acknowledged as a powerhouse of digital culture penetration will be substantially lower, at 78.4%. Notably, two of the region s major powers, Italy and Spain, will continue to languish by this measure, with just 58.6% and 67.1% of their respective populations accessing the web regularly this year. Italy, in particular, is expected to have not only the lowest level of internet penetration in 2015, but also one of the lowest growth rates, at just 1.3%. This is a stark reminder that advertisers across the region can face very different choices when it comes to prioritizing marketing channels and platforms. In Germany, traditional media held firm in More than 99% of German-speaking residents ages 14 and older watched TV in their free time last year, while 95.5% read magazines, 93.0% read newspapers and 89.5% listened to radio programming. Moreover, all these traditional media enjoyed greater reach than digital channels. On the other hand, new media posted gains too. An estimated 73.5% of consumers used the internet, and nearly 45% of respondents owned one or more smartphones. More than one-third (34.2%) used a tablet at least once per month.

7 We hope you found this Executive Summary valuable. Keep in mind that it is just a preview the entire Global Media Intelligence Report provides our clients with a wide range of data on media consumption and demographic trends in key markets around the world. Free Trial Offer You can explore more of that data, including thousands of charts, hundreds of articles and briefs, and dozens of long-form reports with an emarketer trial. We are offering free access to our full platform for 14 days risk-free. How does it work? Register with a corporate address Attend a 20-minute introductory training session Get the full value of emarketer research and insights for 14 days Offer limited to one trial per person We re confident you ll love your emarketer trial experience. If you decide to buy, we offer two options: Limited-seat access, for $10,500 per seat Enterprise open access, at cost-effective rates for companywide access Want more of emarketer s fifth annual Global Media Intelligence Report? What are you waiting for? Sign up for an emarketer trial. Demographic Profile of US Media Users, 2015 % of total Gender Female Male Age Internet users (1) TV viewers (2) Cable TV viewers (2) % 20% 11% 12% Germany: Internet & Social Metrics Radio listeners Magazine readers (3) Newspaper readers (4) 13% 53% 47% 13% 54% 46% 8% 12% Population (millions) % Internet % 20% 20% 28% Users (millions) Household 62.2 income <$25K 1.7% 13% 1.4% 1.0% 0.7% 15% 0.4% 0.5% $25K-$50K76.8% 21% 77.9% 78.8% 23% 79.5% 22% 79.9% 23% 80.3% 22% 23% Social networking $50K-$75K 20% Users (millions) $75K-$100K34.015% % % % % 14% $100K+ 5.5% 31% 3.8% 27% 3.0% 2.5% 30% 1.9% 27% 1.5% 28% 29% % of internet users Note: numbers 54.7% may 56.0% not add 57.1% up to 58.2% 100% due 59.0% to rounding; 59.6% (1) used in the past 30 days; (2) used in the past week; (3) read in the past 6 months; (4) read any daily 42.0% or Sunday 43.6% paper 45.0% 46.2% 47.2% 47.9% Source: Saudi GfK MRI, Arabia: "Survey of the Mobile American Device Consumer Doublebase," Metrics 2015; Facebook provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, July 15, 2015 Users (millions) www.eMarketer.com Population 7.7% (millions) 4.8% 3.1% 2.8% % % % of social network users 82.3% 83.0% 83.1% 83.4% 83.9% 83.9% Mobile phones % of internet users 45.0% 46.5% 47.5% 48.5% 49.5% 50.0% Users (millions) % 36.2% 37.4% 38.5% 39.6% 40.2% 4.9% 4.6% 4.2% 3.9% 3.5% 2.7% Twitter 70.8% 72.9% 74.9% 76.7% 78.3% 79.2% Users (millions) Smartphones 24.8% 17.8% 12.8% 10.2% 8.3% 6.4% Users (millions) % of social network users 12.7% 14.5% 15.8% % 18.1% 19.0% % % of internet Demographic users Profile 7.0% 8.1% of Internet 14.9% 9.1% 9.9% Users 10.7% in China, 8.4% 11.3% % 6.4% 5.8% % of total % of mobile phone users 5.3% 6.3% 7.1% 66.2% 7.9% 72.7% 8.5% 75.5% 9.1% 77.5% 79.6% 82.1% 46.8% 53.0% 56.6% 59.4% 62.3% 65.0% Source: emarketer, 2015 Source: emarketer, % 2.2% Female 47.0% Gender Male 53.0% 6K+ 14.7% Refused 3.6% 3K-6K 47.2% % <1K 16.2% 1K-3K 18.3% % Age % Personal monthly income (RMB) Note: used in the past week; living in 46 cities; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding Source: Sinomonitor, "China Marketing and Media Study," Spring 2015; provided by Starcom MediaVest Group, June 1, Learn how emarketer can help your business: Sales: or sales@emarketer.com