Managing Risk In The Oil Industry: Credit And Supply Chain Management
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1 Managing Risk In The Oil Industry: Credit And Supply Chain Management Platts Crude Oil Summit London, May 14, 2013 Gustavo Tella, CFA, FRM Head of EMEA Application Specialists S&P Capital IQ Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. Copyright 2013 Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 Best Practices For Assessing The Health Of Your Supply Chain Qualitative Framework How do my suppliers perform relative to each other? What is the credit health of my suppliers? Can I identify at risk suppliers? Can I assess the credit quality of each supplier? The Impact to my revenue as part of a critical factor? Operational dependability in terms of uniqueness and disruption Can I measure the operational risk to my supply chain when there are limited substitutes? Can I monitor suppliers for early warning signals of credit deterioration? Do we have a consistent and transparent framework for our supply chain? 2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
3 Supply Chain Management A Major Focus The market is quick to punish companies that report supply chain disruptions. On average, affected companies share prices dropped 9 percent below a benchmark group during the two-day announcement period (i.e. the day before and the day of the announcement). Source: PWC s From Vulnerable to Valuable: How Integrity Can Transform a Supply Chain Oil and gas companies supply chains are playing an increasingly vital role [ ] from steel and drill bits to transportation and catering [it] is required to meet global oil and gas production demand. Source: Oil & Gas s The future of the supply chain Supplier relationships and performance management are increasingly important. Managing supply risks and reducing avoidable costs require close integration and visibility into suppliers operations, even more so when suppliers are immature or constrained.. Source: Ernst & Young s Supply Chain Management in Shale Environment We ve moved from everybody can do their own thing in supply chain to a much more centralized or centre-led approach in our industry learning from other industries [ ] We must keep that focus. Source: Head of Procurement Supply Chain at BP 3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
4 The Problem: Analysis Beyond The Rated Universe The Coverage/Accuracy Tradeoff RATED UNIVERSE Credit analysis driven by qualitative and quantitative inputs PUBLIC UNRATED UNIVERSE Credit analysis driven by fundamentals-based relative analysis Supplemented by absolute measures Accuracy Coverage PRIVATE UNRATED UNIVERSE Credit analysis driven by user inputs to models 4. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
5 Capabilities Measure Navigating The Credit Landscape S&P Capital IQ Analytical Credentials Public Ratings Hybrid Qualitative + Quantitative Model Quantitatively- Derived Credit Scoring Model Fundamental Probability of Default Model Peer Analysis Model CDS-based Market Derived Signals Multifactor based Market Signals Standard & Poor s Ratings Services credit ratings* Scorecards Credit Score Lower-case nomenclature CreditModel Credit Score Lower-case nomenclature Fundamental Probability of default (PD) Lower-case nomenclature Credit Health Panel Relative score Custom score Market Derived Signals (MDS)* Lower-case nomenclature Market Signals PD Lower-case nomenclature Analyst, committee driven & credit methodology driven Medium to long term metric Transparent processes, objective view, rigorous analysis Global coverage Segment-focus modeling approach Expert judgment driven Medium to long term metric Qualitative inputs and quantitative inputs Global coverage Segment-focus modeling approach Fundamentals and ratings driven model Medium to long term metric Financial statements inputs Global coverage Segment-focus modeling approach Point-in-time risk assessment Fundamental and observed defaults models Financial statements inputs Global coverage Fundamental-based scores and ratios Operational Solvency Liquidity Fundamentally driven (financial statements) Custom peer groups Listed co coverage Proprietary daily risk indicators Market-derived signals based on credit default swaps Precalculated PD Companies with CDS coverage Proprietary daily risk indicators Based on: Equity, Country Risk, Industry Risk, Sovereign rating & sovereign CDS MDS Precalculated PD Listed Co coverage Fundamentals (Financials) Long Run *From Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. S&P Capital IQ, as well as its products and services are analytically and editorially separate and independent from other analytical areas at S&P, including S&P Credit Ratings. Market Factors Point-In-Time 5. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
6 Assessing Supply Chain Risk: BP Case Study 6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
7 Fundamentals Based Peer Analysis: Supplier Credit Assessment BP European Suppliers Industry: Energy 54 suppliers in Europe: 43 unrated, 11 rated by Standard & Poor s Rating Services Unrated companies have limited information compared to rated, therefore they need to be assessed in a different manner and from a different perspective: Monitoring changes in suppliers financial strength and credit quality Relative peer analysis of BP s Energy suppliers Credit Scoring Models, Stress Testing, and Probability of Default evaluation highlights the level of risk in BP s supply chain 7. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
8 Break Down Of BP s Suppliers Industry & Geographic Concentrations 46* out of a total of 54 companies from BP s European energy suppliers have credit assessment score, compared to 11 companies rated by Standard & Poor s Ratings Services U.K. Russia Norway Others Geographic breakdown of BP s European Energy suppliers shows a large proportion are based in the U.K (17 companies) 43% 9% 31% 17% * 8 companies are not scored due to insufficient data Source: S&P Capital IQ. As of 1 April Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
9 BP Suppliers: Rated Vs Unrated Universe The number of suppliers with a credit rating is limited Additional credit scoring models are needed to determine current credit assessment of suppliers Potential concentration risk at the lower end of the scale with a greater number of counterparties as noninvestment grade scores. Source: S&P Capital IQ s CreditModel. As of 1 April Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
10 Relative Peer Analysis A Fundamental Credit Health Ranking Of BP s Suppliers Suppliers are ranked based on a number of Operational, Solvency and Liquidity metrics The largest group of companies in the lower quartile of BP s supply chain are from Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Depending on BP s exposure to these particular suppliers, further in-depth analysis may be required Source: S&P Capital IQ s Credit Health Panel on the Global Credit Portal. As of 25 February Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
11 Criticality Of Suppliers BP Supplier Example Position Of Suppliers In Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Industry Important to reduce exposure to risky/volatile suppliers. BP can monitor performance of its suppliers and reduce deals with the most risky ones. Suppliers with low credit quality and high criticality pose a greater risk as they are crucial to BP s operations, regardless of credit quality Criticality scale assesses revenue dependence and operational reliance from 1 (low) to 4 (High) 11. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
12 A Holistic View Of BP s Supply Chain Monitoring Suppliers Credit Performance Surveillance template enables analysis of entire portfolio of BP s suppliers Combine proprietary data (such as criticality), auto populate financials, and conduct analysis on the broad portfolio AGR Group ASA which was in the bottom quartile in relative analysis has seen its share price fall by 36% in last twelve months. Source: S&P Capital IQ. As of 8 May Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
13 Supplier Credit Surveillance Example: AGR Group ASA 13. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
14 AGR Group ASA Broader Picture BP s own credit score is a whereas the average credit score of its suppliers is seven notches below at bb- A deeper look at relative credit health of BP s suppliers reveals AGR group ASA as the lowest placed supplier One might want to look for suitable alternatives in case mitigation of risk associated with an AGR default is needed Probability of AGR defaulting in next twelve months End of Buyback Program Source: S&P Capital IQ s RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal. As of 8 May Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
15 A Telling Picture: Comparing AGR Group With Global Peers GICS: Global Industry Classification Standard Analysis using Credit Health Panel shows that AGR was not only one of the lowest ranked suppliers when compared to all of BP s suppliers, it is also one of the lowest ranked amongst a group of its 41 GICS peers globally Peer Comparison of Profitability: Score AGR Peer Average Return on Capital (%) Bottom Recurring Earnings / Total Assets (%) Bottom Net Working Capital/Revenue (x) Bottom (0.07) 0.20 EBITDA/Revenue (%) Bottom Peer Comparison of Operational Efficiency: Net Working Capital / Total Assets (x) Bottom (0.06) 0.13 Management Rate of Return* (%) Below Average Gross Profit / Revenue (%) Top Payables / Receivables (x) Top AGR Group is placed in the lowest quartile for Operational, Solvency, and Liquidity metrics It also utilizes more debt given its financial leverage ratio of 52% compared to the group average of 34% Its EBITDA interest coverage ratio is significantly lower at 3.56x compared to a mean of 50.13x *Management Rate of Return: EBIT / (Net Property, Plant and Equipment + Net Working Capital). Source: S&P Capital IQ s Credit Health Panel on the Global Credit Portal. As of May 2 nd, Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
16 Quantitative Creditworthiness AGR Group Scenario Analysis AGR s credit score is most sensitive to Operating Margin (1 st ) and Asset Turnover (2 nd ) Changing the value of these ratio s provides valuable insights into the resilience of this company Even if the Operating Margin and Asset Turnover are reduced by 10% each, the score remains at b- Source: S&P Capital IQ s CreditModel. As of 30 September Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
17 Finding Potential Alternatives Norwegian Oil & Gas Equipment & Services We shortlisted 24 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services companies operating in Norway AGR is at bottom quartile relative to its industry and geographic peers The Credit Health Panel shows that, for example,tgs-nopec Geophysical Company ASA has a better quantitative CreditModel score and lower probability of default than AGR For illustrative purposes only. 17. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
18 Monitoring Your Supply Chain Exposure Moving From Relative To Absolute Analysis Applying holistic approach to evaluate supplier exposure and pockets of risk concentrations enables risk managers to conduct due diligence effectively We look for alternatives to AGR Group based on key fundamental metrics such as debt to capital ratio and total assets TGS Nopec Geophysical Co. ASA, Sevan Marine ASA, and On & Offshore Holding AS are placed at the top of the table in terms of debt to capital ratio, total assets and operating income to revenues. Petroleum Geo Services ASA has the highest total assets amongst this group BP can use a mix of solutions to select a replacement supplier if required using relative, fundamental and internal assessments Criticality should also be assessed in the final decision making process 18. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
19 Summary And Uses Of BP s Supply Chain Risk Management Out of BP s 54 European Suppliers in Energy industry, only 11 are currently rated. This requires using other risk assessment metrics to evaluate financial strength of suppliers Using quantitatively driven models such as Credit Model, we extend the coverage to 46 companies with credit scores. Using absolute quantitative models you can stress test financial ratio s to determine how the creditworthiness changes in an adverse scenario Relative peer analysis identifies AGR group, which is placed at the lower end of BP s suppliers and within its own industry Looking for potential alternatives, we shortlisted Norwegian Oil & Gas Equipment & Services companies and focus on top quadrant in relative analysis, before we perform an absolute analysis. TGS-Nopec, Sevan Marine, On & Offshore Holding and Petroleum Geo Services can be potential alternatives to AGR Group based on industry, geography and fundamentals 19. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
20 Contact Us If you have any questions or would like more information about S&P Capital IQ solutions, please contact us: Gustavo Tella, CFA, FRM Head of EMEA Application Specialists General Enquiries Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
21 Copyright 2013 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC (S&P), a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, valuations, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an as is basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P s opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P s public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications 21. Permission to and reprint third-party or distribute redistributors. any content Additional from this information presentation about requires our ratings the prior fees written is available approval at of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.
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