Workshop B: Credit Spread Trends In The Energy Sector

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1 Workshop B: Credit Spread Trends In The Energy Sector James West Director, FIOTC Product Management 26 November, 2014 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public. Copyright 2014 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC (S&P). All rights reserved.

2 Credit Spread Trends Energy Sector Constructing Corporate Bond Yield Curves USD vs EUR Z-spreads How have they performed throughout 2014? How does the Energy Sector s spread performance compare to other sectors? Bond yield performance Credit spreads vs oil price movement How are they correlated? Credit Spread sensitivity at different Ratings levels vs Oil price movement What trends should we expect into 2015? 2 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.

3 Differentiated Input Data Constructing Corporate Yield Curves Quotes, Trades Candidate Sources: FINRA TRACE Trax (formerly Xtrakter) S&P Capital IQ Quote* Market Activity Grade: Low: 1-5 updates in 10 business days High: 6+ updates in 10 business days Term Structure: Rich term structure coverage Includes parsed quotes from buy-side firms Highest consistency of prices for individual bonds GICS Sectors (10 sectors + non-financial composite) Currency Maturity Reference Data Clean Input Data S&P Ratings Credit Quality *Formerly known as CMA Bonds. 3 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.

4 Methodology Constructing Corporate Yield Curves Precise curve construction and calibration Aggregates pricing dynamics across various maturities for debt of identical credit quality Calibrates individual curves, each representing the best fit for a group of credits specified by the sector and rating FILTERING AGGREGATION INPUT S&P Ratings Indicative quotes Credits with rich term structure coverage 1. Curve Shape Combined Spot Curves S&P Capital IQ Fixed Income Terms & Conditions GICS Sectors Bond issues with frequent daily price updates 2. Curve Level Convertible to: Credit Spread Full Yield Curves Zero/Par Credit VaR Matrices 4 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.

5 Energy Sector Spread Volatility Source: S&P Capital IQ Corporate Bond Z-Spread curves as of 31 st October, Oil prices are from S&P Capital IQ as of 31 st October, Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.

6 Comparing BBB Sector Spreads Energy Sector only sector to widen with falling oil prices, other sectors remain flat or decline Source: S&P Capital IQ Corporate Bond Z-Spread curves as of 31 st October, Oil prices are from S&P Capital IQ as of 31 st October, Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.

7 Energy Sector Yields Source: S&P Capital IQ Corporate Yield Curves as of 31 st October, Oil prices are from S&P Capital IQ as of 31 st October, Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.

8 Energy Spreads - Investment Grade Between 1st th October and 15 th October 11% decline in Oil Price AAA 0% spread increase AA 6% spread increase A 3% spread increase Source: S&P Capital IQ Corporate Bond Z-Spread curves as of 31 st October, Oil prices are from S&P Capital IQ as of 31 st October, Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.

9 Energy Spreads BBB And Below Between 1st th October and 15 th October 11% decline in Oil Price BBB 13.5% spread increase BB 16% spread increase B 20% spread increase CCC 14% spread increase Source: S&P Capital IQ Corporate Bond Z-Spread curves as of 31 st October, Oil prices are from S&P Capital IQ as of 31 st October, Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.

10 Cash Spreads Vs CDS Spreads Source: S&P Corporate Bond Z-Spread Curves as of 31 st October, CMA CDS and Oil prices are from S&P Capital IQ as of 31 st October, Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.

11 Credit Spreads Where To Next? S&P CIQ Estimates of Oil prices to May 2015 around 7% increase Due to negative correlation we would expect credit spreads to tighten as oil price rises Equates to around a 30bp tightening for EUR BBB credit spreads from current levels Source: Oil Price Estimates from S&P Capital IQ as of 13 th November Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Capital IQ. Not for distribution to the public.

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