Friday, July 08, 2016 MAJOR COMMODITIES. News & Development. For Private Circulation Only

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1 Friday, July 08, 2016 For Private Circulation Only MAJOR COMMODITIES Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change Gold 05-Aug Gold (Oz) Aug Silver 05-Jul Silver (Oz) Jul Crude Oil 19-Jul Crude Oil Aug Natural Gas 26-Jul Natural Gas Aug Copper 31-Aug Copper 3M Nickel 29-Jul Nickel 3M Aluminium 29-Jul Aluminium 3M Lead 29-Jul Lead 3M Zinc 29-Jul Zinc 3M News & Development U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in June as small businesses ramped up hiring, and fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, suggesting a rebound in job growth after May's paltry gains. U.S. crude stocks fell last week as refineries cut output, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. (Source: Reuters)

2 Gold Gold slips as U.S. jobs data supports the dollar, ending a six-day rally that pushed the precious metal to more than a two-year high on concerns about Britain's vote to leave the European Union. Financial markets have been extremely volatile since the June 23 "Brexit" vote, knocking equities and pushing some bond yields to record lows. That in turn has boosted the appeal of so-called safe-havens such as gold and silver. Traders are awaiting further clues on the outlook for Federal Reserve policy from Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data, seen as a barometer of the economy's health. U.S. private payrolls in June were stronger than expected, according to a report on Thursday, adding pressure to gold prices. Elsewhere, data showed China's gold reserves rose to million ounces at the end of June from million a month before. Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Aug Sideways We expect gold prices to trade positive on the back of safe haven demand. Silver Silver was down 1.8 pct at $19.71 an ounce. Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Sep Sideways We expect Silver prices to trade sideways on the back of profit booking after sharp up-move in prices. Page 2

3 Crude Oil Oil prices fell 5 percent to two-month lows on Thursday after the U.S. government reported a weekly crude draw within analysts' forecasts that disappointed market bulls expecting larger declines. Brent crude also lost the most in a session since February as the global benchmark and U.S. crude futures broke key technical support they had defended for nearly two weeks since a selloff on Britain's shock vote to exit the European Union. Oil broke support levels after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude stockpiles fell 2.2 million barrels for the week to July 1, just below a 2.3-million barrel decline forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. While the EIA reported a seventh weekly decline in crude stocks, the figure it gave was far less than a 6.7 million-barrel draw cited by trade group the American Petroleum Institute in preliminary data issued late Wednesday. Traders said that indicated sentiment shift in a market that has traded not far from the psychologically bullish $50 a barrel level since mid-may despite mixed data on crude. Oil has risen more than 70 percent from 12-year lows of around $27 for Brent and $26 for U.S. crude in the first quarter, driven by unexpected supply outages from Nigeria to Canada that are now being resolved. U.S. gasoline inventories also fell less than expected, slipping by 122,000 barrels according to EIA, versus forecasts of a 353,000-barrel draw. That added to fears of a gasoline glut. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways on the back of short covering after drop in prices. Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 July Sideways Natural Gas U.S. natural gas futures followed crude lower on Thursday despite a smaller-than-expected weekly storage build and forecasts for slightly hotter weather over the next two weeks. The EIA said in another report that utilities added 39 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended July 1. That was slightly lower than analysts' 43 bcf consensus estimate in a Reuters poll and compared with builds of 42 bcf in the prior week, 83 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average of 77 bcf. Despite the recent gas rally, analysts said spot prices so far in 2016 remained relatively low, which has pressured producers to cut output and encouraged generators to burn more gas instead of coal to prevent storage caverns from filling to maximum capacity. A warm winter has left inventories at record highs. Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Jul S We expect Natural gas prices to trade positive on the back of short covering after sharp drop in prices. \ Page 3

4 Base Metals Copper slid to the lowest in over a week on Thursday as the dollar strengthened, oil prices fell and investors continued to be unsettled about the aftermath of the UK's vote to leave the European Union. Industrial metals saw broad-based losses, including in nickel, despite news the Philippines had ordered the suspension of two mines in a nationwide crackdown. Speculators have piled into the nickel market after the new Philippine president said he would crack down on mines violating environmental rules. Philippines is the biggest supplier of nickel ore to China, the world's top metals consumer. Nickel is mainly used in making stainless steel. On Thursday, a government official told Reuters that two nickel mines would be suspended in Zambales province, north of the capital Manila. The mines are operated by BenguetCorp Nickel Mines Inc and Zambales Diversified Metals Corp. It was unclear why investors appeared to ignore the news, but one trader said some of the potential impact from the Philippines had already been priced into the market as prices had rallied by nearly a quarter from the start of June until Monday's peak. Jul/Aug Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Copper R Nickel S Alum S Lead Sideways Zinc Sideways We expect base metal prices to trade mixed on the back of short term shortages. LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel Current Stock Change % Change % -0.05% -0.22% -0.25% 0.17% Page 4

5 DATE TIME (IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT Fri, Jul 8 5:20am JP Current Account 1.52T 1.63T Medium 2:00pm UK Goods Trade Balance -10.2B -10.5B Medium 6:00pm US Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2% High 6:00pm US Non-Farm Employment Change 181K 38K High 6:00pm US Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.7% High For Further Assistance Contact: Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal AVP ashish.shah@sushilfinance.com Sr. Research Analyst tejas.nikhar@sushilfinance.com Research Analyst mohit.agarwal@sushilfinance.com WE / OUR CLIENTS / OUR RELATIVES MAY HAVE PERSONAL TRADING / INVESTMENT INTEREST IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED HERE IN. STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. Additional information with respect to any commodities referred to herein will be available on request. Sushil Global Commodities Pvt. Ltd. and its connected companies, and their respective Directors, Officers and employees, may, from time to time, have a long or short position in the commodities mentioned and may sell or buy such commodities. Sushil Global may act upon or make use of information contained herein prior to the publication thereof. This data sheet is for private circulation only. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above, we claim no responsibility for its accuracy. We shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are requested to use the information contained herein at their own risk. Sushil Global Commodities Private Limited Member: NCDEX, FMC Regn.No MCX, FMC Regn.No Genius, 4 th Road, Khar (W), Mumbai Tel.: Fax: commodities@sushilfinance.com Page 5