UK commercial property provides investors with strongest returns in 2014 Global Equity levels at record high

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1 NOT FOR BROADCAST OR PUBLICATION BEFORE HRS THURSDAY 27 th NOVEMBER 2014 Lloyds Bank Private Banking Assetwatch report tracks the value of nine asset groups. The asset classes are UK Shares, Global Equities, UK Bonds, International Bonds, Cash, UK Commercial Property, UK Residential Property, Commodities and Precious Metals. UK commercial property provides investors with strongest returns in 2014 Global Equity levels at record high Returns on all asset classes up by 4% Investment returns on UK commercial property grew by 20.1% in the year to October, the highest among the nine 1 key asset classes in this review according to new research by Lloyds Bank Private Banking. Investment returns on UK Commercial Property have been boosted by falling yields, as investor confidence improves; whilst the continuing economic recovery has lifted rental growth. Global Equities at a record high Global Equities rose to a record monthly high in October providing returns, as measured by the MSCI World Total Returns Index, of 12.8% in the past year the second highest in this review. Although global economic activity has been moderate, the distribution of that growth has been uneven; with a quickening pace in the US and UK, slowdown in the Eurozone and little change in China. The European Central Bank's further cut to its interest rates and intended purchases of asset backed securities to stimulate the Eurozone economy are likely to have supported Global Equities. (See Table 1) Returns on all asset classes up by 4% The average annual return for the nine key asset classes has edged down from 4.6% in October 2013 to 3.9% in October While returns for several asset classes have increased in the past year there have been declines in returns earned on Precious Metals and Commodities. (See Table 2) After Commercial Property and Global Equities, the largest returns were in UK Residential Property (11.3%), UK Bonds (6.7%) and International Bonds (5.5%). At the other end of the spectrum, investor returns fell in Precious Metals ( 17.8%) and Commodities ( 4.9%).

2 Residential Properties show strong growth Over the past year, total returns (based on house price growth and rents) from UK Residential Properties grew by 11.3% 2. This was driven by average housing values rising by 7.6% 3 and returns on private rents growing by 3% between October 2013 and October Ashish Misra, Head of Investment Policy at Lloyds Bank Private Banking, said "In the year to October, UK Commercial Property has been the best performing asset class. Investment returns on UK Commercial Property have been boosted as investor confidence has improved on the back of a positive economic outlook. Recovery in both the occupier and investments markets has been in full swing for much of the past two years raising demand, and with supply slow to respond, driving up rental growth and capital values. Whilst demand in London has driven returns for much of the period, recovery in the regions appears to be coming through more strongly now as well." UK Bonds outperform international bonds UK Bonds delivered a total return of 6.7% in the year to October 2014; over one per cent higher than the return from international bonds (5.5%). This reflects, in part, greater investor confidence in the UK economic outlook, as well as the slowdown in the Eurozone economy and the growing political uncertainty in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Little sparkle for investors in Precious Metals For the second year running, Precious Metals have significantly underperformed against other asset classes, with prices falling by 17.8% in the 12 months to October. During this period, the price of Gold fell by 11.9% and silver by 10.5%. Gold's twelve year run ended in 2013 when the price fell by 27.0% in both November and December Weaker consumer demand in leading markets for gold in India and China has seen the price deteriorate further in The continued strength of the US dollar has also worked against the Gold price. Coffee records the largest commodity price rise Coffee was the top performing commodity over the year with a price rise of 76.1%. Rising supply side pressures resulting from the worst drought in 50 years in Brazil, the leading coffee producing nation, have underpinned the marked increase in coffee prices. In contrast, soft wheat was the worst performing commodity, recording a 34.9% price decline. Crude oil, corn, soya beans, heating oil and hard wheat also recorded price declines in the range of 16% to 27.5% based on expectations of increased supply. On the other hand, there were price increases in zinc (20.7%), aluminium (13.3%), and cocoa (9.5%). A slowdown in the Chinese economy, weakening demand elsewhere and a shale gas boom in the US have been key drivers in the price of crude oil falling to $80 a barrel in October, a fall of 16.4% in the past year.

3 Table 1: Average asset class returns over 6 months, 1 year and 10 years to October 2014 As at October month % change 1 year % change 10 year % change UK Commercial Property 10.2% 20.1% 77.2% Global Equities 6.0% 12.8% 103.0% UK Residential Property 6.5% 11.3% 53.2% UK Bonds 5.4% 6.7% 71.7% International Bonds 3.5% 5.5% 46.3% UK Shares 1.6% 1.0% 116.1% Cash 0.2% 0.5% 28.7% Commodities 14.7% 4.9% 70.2% Precious Metals 13.0% 17.8% 107.2% Average 0.3% 3.9% 74.8% Table 2: Annual average asset class returns, October 2004 to October month % change October % October % October % October % October % October % October % October % October % October % October % Table 3: Best Performing Asset class by year October 2004 to October 2014 Year to Best performing asset class Annual % return October 2014 Commercial Property 20.1% October 2013 Global Equities 28.5% October 2012 Global Equities 11.8% October 2011 CRB Precious metals 20.6%

4 October 2010 CRB Precious metals 34.2% October 2009 CRB Precious metals 26.0% Total return houses (including rents October 2008 reinvested) 14.3% October 2007 CRB Precious metals 27.0% October 2006 CRB Precious metals 34.6% Total return houses (including rents October 2005 reinvested) 25.3% October 2004 CRB Precious metals 21.9% For more information please contact: Siobhan McCluskey / Laura Brodkin / Editors' Notes: Notes: Ends 1 The following indices have been used as benchmarks for the nine asset classes: UK Bonds: Merrill Lynch UK Broad Market Total Return bond index International Bonds Citigroup World Government Bond Index All Maturities Total Returns (Local currency) UK Shares FTSE All Share Total Return Index (includes dividends) Global Equities MSCI World Total Return Index Local currency (includes dividends) Commodities Reuters CRB Commodity Price Index Precious Metals Reuters CRB Precious Metals Index UK Commercial Property IPD Total Return Index, time weighted. (Includes deduction of typical maintenance costs and other associated irrecoverable costs such as management fees, but no adjustment has been made for necessary investment to improve quality to maintain the property in line with current standards) UK Residential Property Total Return from houses including rents reinvested (based on Halifax House Price Index and RPI series on rent). See below for further details Cash JPM Morgan Cash (under 1 month) Total Return Index 2 Based on house price changes and rental income (net of typical maintenance costs, void periods and irrecoverable costs of letting a property). 3 Halifax House Price Index October 2013 to October 2014 Total returns data have been used with the exception of Commodities and Precious Metals, which are for price changes only. The total return for residential property has been derived by combining the house price increase from the Halifax house price index with the rental return derived by deflating the RPI Housing rent index against current buy to let rents (source: CLG). Estimated maintenance costs associated with owning a home, voids and irrecoverable costs

5 of letting a property (e.g. management fees, estimated by the IPD to be approximately 33% of gross income) have been deducted from the total return. There is no adjustment for investment in the property to improve its quality to keep it up to date with expected standards. This could result in some overstatement of returns. UK shares are based on the FTSE All Share index. The index does not specifically make an adjustment for survivor bias. Survivor bias stems from equity indices being based on existing companies. They, therefore, do not explicitly factor in the negative impact associated with buying shares in a company that fails. As a result, equity indices are prone to overestimate returns over time. The periodic rebalancing of the FTSE indices (where every constituent is liquidity screened and those failing the liquidity screen are removed) helps to reduce the extent of such bias. Nonetheless, some caution should be exercised in evaluating stockmarket performance over a significant length of time. Data is measured as at last trading day of October of each year. "This report is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, however, it is only intended to highlight issues and it is not intended to be comprehensive. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue/withdraw this, or any other report. Any use of this report for an individual's own or third party commercial purposes is done entirely at the risk of the person making such use and solely the responsibility of the person or persons making such reliance. Lloyds Bank all rights reserved 2014"

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