Potential for Renewable Energies in Italy and Europe a comparison.

Transcription

1 Stephan Franz Potential for Renewable Energies in Italy and Europe a comparison. April 21, 2010 Hannover 1

2 Outline. 1. Introduction: About the German Energy Agency (dena). 2. The Italian Renewable Energy Market in an European Context. 3. The Italian Wind Energy Market. 4. Framework Conditions of the Italian Energy Market. 2

3 1. Introduction: About the German Energy Agency (dena). 3

4 Ownership Structure of dena. dena Federal Republic of Germany 50 % KfW Bankengruppe 26 % Represented by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology in consultation with: The Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety The Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development Management Stephan Kohler Chief Executive Andreas Jung Allianz SE 8 % Deutsche Bank AG 8 % DZ BANK AG 8 % 4

5 Fields of Competence and Activity at dena. 5

6 2. The ItalianRenewableEnergyMarket in an European Context. 6

7 RE Market Potential Worldwide: Cumulated Installation End 2008 and 2013 Prognosis Wind Wind CSP PV Geo North America Wind PV Europe PV CSP Geo 2008 Asia/ Pacific Wind PV CSP Geo CSP Geo L.A./ Africa 7

8 Europe: The Top RES-Market Worldwide Wind PV CSP Geo GW cumulated e Wind (GWEC) Photovoltaics (EPIA) CSP (EER) Geothermal (EER) Small Hydro (REN21) 12 n/a 8

9 RES in Italy. Italy Germ any Wind PV CSP Bioenergy Geothermal Wind PV CSP Bioenergy Geot hermal Key Established salesmarket Mid-t erm market potential Technology Wind 2009: third-largest European market (after Spain and Germany). PV 2009: second-largest European market (after Germany). CSP 2009: significant resources and some projects in pipeline. near-surface geothermal energy 2009: highest installed capacity in Europe (2008: 711 MW). Bioenergy: third-largest landfill gas producer (after UK and Germany). 9

10 3. The ItalianWind EnergyMarket. 10

11 Matrix of European Wind Markets. Question Marks Stars CAGR Bulgaria Poland Hungary France Czech Republic Estonia Finland Luxembourg Belgium Sweden Portugal Ireland UK Greece Norway Netherlands Spain Austria Sleeping Giants Source: dena 2010 Relative Market Share Italy Denmark Germany Cash Cows 11

12 Wind Energy in Italy Installed Capacity. end-2009 cumulated installed capacity : 4.85 GW 2009 newly installed capacity: 1.1 GW (2008: ~1 GW) 2009 wind power electricity production: 6.1 TWh about 10% of wind power electricity production could not be utilized because of temporary grid overload issues ,8 2,3 3,0 1,3 1,6 1,9 4,1 2,7 5,1 3,7 6,1 4, Source: Eurobserv Er 2010 installed wind power capacity (GW) - CAGR : 29,9% wind power electricity production (TWh) - CAGR : 26,9% 12

13 Wind Energy in Italy Promotion and Prospects. promotion of wind energy through tradable green certificates, 2009 value: /MWh. authorization for green certificates through GSE (Gestore dei Servizi Elettrici) for 15 years. feed-in tariff for wind energy plants <200 kw introduction of a feed-in tariff for larger plants is being discussed some 83 MW offshore installations are under construction (e.g. one project by Effeventi, ENEL and Tozzi Group) 2020 prospects according to ANEV (Italian wind energy association): 12 GW installed capacity by 2020, 2 GW of it offshore. 13

14 Regional Allocation of Installed Wind Capacity(2008) Source: ENEA and APER

15 Market Share of Turbine Manufacturers(2008) Other 1% Ecotecnica 3% Nordex 4% GE 5% Repower 5% Vestas Italia 49% Enercon 13% Source: ENEA 2009 Gamesa 20% 15

16 4. Framework ConditionsoftheItalianEnergyMarket. 16

17 Framework Conditions in Italy Topic EU target 2020: Specification 17 percent RES share on end energy supply (base year 2005: 5.2 percent) Energy market: nuclear-phase-out policy ended in 2009 new nuclear power plants planned 2008 market share of the the partially privatized energy supplier Enel: 31.3 percent Italy aims at becoming a hub for energy imports from the MENA region to Europe electricity generation mix: 54,4% gas high import dependency, especially on foreign gas high electricity prices for end customers 17

18 Italian Electricity Generation Mix 2008 Bio energy 2,2% Hydro 14,3% Geothermal 1,7% Solar/Wind 2,4% Measure Figure Coal 15,5% Oil 9,5% gross domestic electricity generation electricity imports electricity exports apparent consumption TWh 43 TWh 3.4 TWh TWh Gas 54,4% Source: IEA

19 End Customer Electricity Prices (medium-sized households, /kwh, 2007) 0,18 0,16 0,14 0,12 0,1 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 0 Italy Luxemburg Irland Germany Portugal Netherlands Norway Slovakia UK Belgium EU-15 Cyprus EU-27 Denmark Sweden Austria Hungary Spain Poland Malta France Czech Republic Slowenia Finland Romania Croatia Greece Lithuania Estonia Latvia Bulgaria Source: Eurostat

20 Energy Import Dependency (net energy imports/gross energy consumption, 2007) Source: Eurostat

21 Secenario of the Development of the Electricity Consumption in TWh. Source: Enea,

22 Conclusion. Italy has developed into one of the most attractive European markets for renewable energies. The political promotion of renewable energies led to a substantial market growth in the last years. Natural potential, import dependency and high electricity prices are in favour of renewable energy sources. Hence, a favourable further market development can be expected, although the promotion scheme expecially for PV is uncertain for the coming years. 22

23 Further Information on the Italian RES Markets. Exporthandbuch Biogasmarkt International Exporthandbuch Windenergie International 23

24 Thank you very much for your attention. Contact: Deutsche Energie-Agentur (dena) Renewable Energies Stephan Franz