Global Cities and Housing

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1 Global Cities and Housing The Sydney Case in its Australian and International Context Vivienne Milligan

2 Context Demography and urban settlement patterns Economic conditions Governance, policy and institutions for planning and housing UK/US comparators

3 Demography and Urban Settlement Patterns PERTH (1.40m) WESTERN AUSTRALIA DARWIN (0.11m) NORTHERN TERRITORY SOUTH AUSTRALIA QUEENSLAND NEW SOUTH WALES ADELAIDE (1.11m) VICTORIA MELBOURNE (3.49m) 1000 kilometres Total Population 19.71m (2001) TASMANIA ABS (2002) Cat. No SYDNEY (4.15m) HOBART (0.20m) BRISBANE (1.65m) CANBERRA (0.32m) Highly urbanised (91%) and concentrated 2 dominant cities (39%) Low density cities Large inter city house price differentials Large distances between major cities constrains internal migration Globalisation and immigration impacts Sydney, Melbourne Ageing impacts - SE Queensland, Adelaide

4 House Price Index - Established Houses, Capital Cities Melbourne Sydney Jun.1986 Jun.1987 Jun.1988 Jun.1989 Jun.1990 Jun.1991 Jun.1992 Jun.1993 Jun.1994 Jun.1995 Jun.1996 Jun.1997 Jun.1998 Jun.1999 Jun.2000 Jun.2001 Jun.2002 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darw in Canberra ABS Cat No

5 Economic Conditions Strong and sustained economic growth since mid 1990s 3.4% average annual GDP increase ( down wonder ) Consistent globalisation features shift to part time work, dominance of tertiary sector less severe tech wreck Favourable domestic lending conditions however, real interest rate high by international norms Income equality and living standards social accord protected those on lowest incomes during 1980s restructuring wound back since 1996 most adverse impact on middle 50 % of income distribution Housing investment strong but mortgage indebtedness historically high strong take off in equity credit

6 Governance, Policy and Institutions Federated system with unclear and overlapping responsibilities Fragmented local government (45 LGAs in Sydney) Powerful land development industry and developer lobby Very small not for profit sector in housing/near monopoly public provider Urban policy city based (no national framework/programs) Weak city wide strategic planning framework Fiscal policies contributing to house price rises Housing policy narrow focus (also, public housing unsustainable under present policy settings)

7 Some International Differences Domination of 2 large cities growth of regional and transit cites slow High quality housing Relatively young stock Urban renewal privately driven no subsidy framework High housing wealth 64% wealth in housing Well developed service delivery system for the homeless More ethnically integrated than UK/US cities Cities do not have abandoned/ no go areas Atypical rental sector strong/growing investment, non institutional sources, low returns generally, decline at low rent end

8 Finance Commitment for Housing (Real) A $billion Owner Occupiers Investors Source: ABS, Cat. No

9 Housing Assets as a % Total Assets Non financial assets as a share of total assets for all households Australia UK US Source: Ellis and Andrews (2001)

10 Housing Wealth/Income Ratio Housing wealth as a % of household disposable income Australia UK US Source: Ellis and Andrews (2001)

11 Recent House Price Changes % Change Australia UK US Mid (Sept) The Economist (2002)

12 Sydney s extent and growth Each red dot is a new dwelling added Planning NSW

13 Sydney s Urban Growth Sydney has grown faster than forecast strongest growth since 1960s 1.4 % per annum 4.15m in 2001 reach 4.5 million by 2010 not 2021 Why Sydney s growth? Dominant economic centre of the country Attracts a higher proportion of migrants High levels of housing demand due to Shrinking households sizes Receives 40% of overseas migration 27,000 new dwellings needed per year

14 Components of Sydney s Growth ('000) ('000) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Natural increase Overseas migration Domestic migration Total Population Planning NSW

15 Sydney s Population Mix and Dynamics Less older people (12 %) than rest of state/country Largest group year olds Losing baby boomers to coastal areas/interstate Almost one quarter now single person households Falling household size (2.68 persons average) One in three Sydneysiders overseas born Broad mix of ethnic groups, regional sources increasing

16 Sydney Age Distribution, MALE FEMALE Over 65 s Boomers Generation X Over 65 s Boomers Generation X Number of people Planning NSW

17 Number Older Persons (over 65) Population Aged 65 and Over % increase in the decade since Population Over 65 (%) Sydney 11.9 Rest of NSW 15.2 NSW census year Sydney Rest of State Planning NSW

18 Overseas Migrants 1 in 3 Sydneysiders is overseas born In the rest of the state 1 in 10 are overseas born Rest of State 16% Distribution of overseas born, 2001 Largest overseas born groups United Kingdom New Zealand China Vietnam Italy Anglo/Celtic decreasing (down to 19%) Asian increasing (10% by 2030) 36,000 new arrivals in Sydney each year Sydney 84% Planning NSW

19 Employment Changes, Sydney JUN.1988 JUN.1996 JUN Employed part-time Employed full-time Unemployment Rate Participation Rate ABS Cat. Nos /03/05

20 The Sydney Housing Market Volatile property cycle Physical and infrastructure constraints forcing shift to medium and high density 64% detached houses but growth is 66% multi unit Radial transport system from CBD. Sub regions undeveloped Strong north south (amenity) and east west (economic) differentiation Long term decline in affordability slowing fringe growth and user pricing have impacted on affordability Poor rental market affordability Prices/income at record high at present Tenure shifts 7% fall in purchasers over 15 years Large houses (283 sq. m av. now) and long term rise in standards Stock mismatch from ageing, smaller households

21 % Change in Capital City Established House Prices Over Five Years (Real) RBA (2002) Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Canberra Darwin Hobart Weighted average Five Years to March 1989 Five Years to March 2002

22 Tenure Change in Sydney 1986 Private renters Other 23% 5% 5% 31% Public tenants 36% Outright owners Home purchasers 8% Public tenants Private renters 24% 39% Outright owners 2001 Other 5% 24% Home purchasers ABS Census of Population and Housing (1986, 2001)

23 Housing Stress Among Low Income Private Tenants in Main Cities, Proportion lowest 40% households paying more than 30% gross income in rent % Melbourne Sydney Brisbane Perth Hobart Darwin Adelaide Berry and Hall (2001)

24 Meeting Housing Needs Our Key Issues/Challenges Managing sustained growth in big cities Achieving any growth in affordable housing Tenure segmentation reinforcing economic and social divisions Lack of political leadership/strategic framework/subsidy Housing problems not agreed/bureaucratic resistance Weak constituency for action Community involvement/ infrastructure underdeveloped

25 Sources Berry, M. and Hall, J. (2001) Policy Options for Stimulating Private Sector Investment in Affordable Housing across Australia. Stage 1 Report: Outlining the Need for Action. Reports for the Affordable Housing National Research Consortium AHURI, Melbourne Ellis, L. and Andrews, D. (2001) City Sizes, Housing Costs, and Wealth. Research Discussion Papers 2001 no. 8. Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney. RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) (2002) Recent Developments in Housing: Prices, Finance and Investor Attitudes. Reserve Bank Bulletin. RBA, Sydney. The Economist (2002) Global House Prices As Safe as What? 31 st August: The Economist Ltd., London Other data from: Australian Bureau of Statistics Various Catalogues Planning NSW

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