Market Analysis. Overview 2013 NEXT GENERATION FIREWALLS. Authors: Rob Ayoub, Andrew Braunberg, Jason Pappalexis, Mike Spanbauer

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1 Market Analysis 2013 NEXT GENERATION FIREWALLS Authors: Rob Ayoub, Andrew Braunberg, Jason Pappalexis, Mike Spanbauer Overview The term next generation firewall (NGFW) is as nebulous as the market that it represents. In today s nomenclature, the term denotes a firewall that provides functionality beyond the traditional capabilities of classic firewall port blocking. Over the years, numerous vendors and analyst firms have tried to attach a more specific definition to the term and thus differentiate NGFW from existing unified threat management (UTM) products. Today, any direct comparison of NGFW and UTM products is moot because customers are ignoring labels and choosing solutions strictly on features and functions. While vendor product marketing teams will continue to argue over the definitions of NGFW and UTM, the industry appears mostly content to apply the historical moniker of UTM to the small and medium- sized business (100 employees and under and NGFW to enterprise deployments of mid- sized companies and larger (1000 seats and up). Early attempts to combine multiple functions within a single device were plagued with problems. Today s devices are capable of performing at high throughputs with numerous functions enabled, which is encouraging many organizations to consolidate multiple features into a single device. The widespread acceptance of NGFW products by enterprises indicates a change in perception in the security market. Other significant trends driving the market are the need for application control and the need for advanced security that is applied consistently from branch offices to data centers to the cloud. These trends have led to a high- growth market as most organizations have replaced traditional gateway devices with NGFWs. While this market has been lucrative for many vendors and has caused significant changes in the infrastructure security landscape, the next several years are poised to provide numerous challenges and potential upheaval as organizations settle on specific vendors and NGFW refresh cycles become more predictable. The next few years will be key for NGFW vendors as they look for ways to differentiate their offerings and provide additional services in order to take market share from other technologies. Cloud- based sandboxing and endpoint protection are some of the new features in NGFWs, and the adoption rates of those technologies will change the market landscape for NGFW vendors and for other traditional security vendors. The concept of a common security platform is the driving message of NGFW vendors today, but some critics still argue that such an approach actually lowers security effectiveness since all of the security products from a given vendor are fed by a common back end. To address this challenge and to more quickly integrate new security features, NGFW vendors are expanding their technology partnerships and making third- party security software available on their platforms. A tactic some vendors, such as WatchGuard, tout as a competitive advantage.

2 The NGFW market has driven a great deal of change in the infrastructure security market and clearly is here to stay. However, considering most organizations by now have made their first and quite possible their largest purchase in the technology, the NGFW market is now entering its next phase, and it will be significantly affected by vendor choices regarding new technologies, alliances, and partnerships over the next three to five years. NSS Labs Findings In 2013, the NGFW market generated US$2.87 billion in revenues The NGFW market is showing strong revenue gains, with a growth rate of more than 17.9% in 2013 and a continued average growth rate of 15.3% expected for the next five years. While the NGFW market has shown exceptional growth, most enterprises have now performed their first replacements and are moving into more traditional three- to- five year replacement cycles. NGFW vendors are looking for new technologies to integrate in order to differentiate themselves from the competition. Subscription sales continue to climb as a percentage of overall sales, which indicates high vendor loyalty, but which can also cut into profit margins (services are more expensive to maintain). 2

3 Table of Contents Overview... 1 NSS Labs Findings... 2 Analysis... 5 Methodology... 5 Market Definition... 5 Top Market Drivers... 6 A More Complex Threat landscape... 6 Ongoing Proliferation of High- Profile Breaches... 6 Availability of High Performance Products... 6 Lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Compared to Multiple Products... 6 Simplified Security Management through a Single Platform... 7 Interest in Protecting Cloud and Virtual Deployments... 7 Top Market Inhibitors... 7 Market Saturation of NGFW Products... 7 Performance and Vulnerability Concerns over Single Vendor Solution... 7 Changing Security Priorities within Organizations... 8 Difficulty in Showing ROI from Security... 8 Total Market Size and Growth Forecasts... 8 Products and Services Revenue... 9 Total Units Shipped Technology Trends Threat Intelligence Sandboxing and Breach Detection Technology Endpoint Protection Managed through NGFW Vertical Market Trends Horizontal Market Trends Mergers and Acquisitions Cisco Acquires Sourcefire Palo Alto Acquires Morta and Cyvera Sophos Acquires Cyberoam and Mojave Vendor Market Share Appendix A: Vendor List Reading List Contact Information

4 Table of Figures Figure 1 Market Drivers for the NGFW Market, Figure 2 Market Inhibitors for the NGFW Market, Figure 3 NGFW Total Market Revenues and Growth Rate, 2012 to 2018 (Base Year 2013)... 8 Figure 4 NGFW Total Market Revenues and Growth Rate (Graphic Representation), (Base Year 2013)... 9 Figure 5 NGFW Product and Service Breakouts, Figure 6 NGFW Average Selling Price Forecast (Base Year 2013) Figure 7 NGFW Vertical Market Forecast by Revenue Figure 8 NGFW Vertical Market Forecast by Percentage Figure 9 NGFW Horizontal Forecasts by Revenue Figure 10 NGFW Horizontal Forecast by Percentage Figure 11 NGFW Market Share, Product and Service Revenue, Base Year

5 Analysis Similar to its predecessor, the traditional firewall, NGFW technology is considered security table stakes. NGFW vendors combine diverse security technologies to serve as single infrastructure security providers. Enterprises and small business alike have also embraced the lower price points, greater processing power, and improved security that these products provide compared to best- of- breed products from a few years ago. Where protection of an attack surface once required several separate products, the same protection can be now be achieved with a single NGFW. Now that NGFW technology is mainstream, the vendor landscape must evolve to drive new revenue opportunities beyond initial deployment of these devices. NGFW vendors have adopted various innovative approaches to expand their technology footprints, including acquisitions and technology partnerships that are designed to reached past the perimeter and take on technologies such as breach detection and endpoint protection. Methodology The NSS Labs Market Analyses have a robust methodology that is designed to provide an accurate picture of the particular market being evaluated. Once a market has been identified by NSS as a candidate for a Market Analysis, the vendor landscape is evaluated to identify market participants, and a detailed questionnaire is submitted to vendors, resellers, and customers. Vendors have the opportunity to perform fact checking on any information that is published by NSS. NSS is using 2013 as the base year for all forecasts and financial data for this Market Analysis. Revenue calculations include product and services revenue, since NGFWs cannot operate without subscription services. Market Definition As the firewall market evolves, other security functions (such as network intrusion prevention systems, application control, full stack inspection and extra firewall intelligence sources) have become incorporated into the security appliance. Many vendors refer to these products as next generation firewalls (NGFWs) or unified threat management (UTM) products. NSS considers this category to include devices that can perform firewall, intrusion prevention, and application control functions at a minimum. Today s NGFW devices include functionality that is traditionally found in web security, security, breach detection, Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) VPN, and even endpoint security products. Across the industry, most vendors and customers differentiate UTM and NGFW products based on their ability to operate in conjunction with a centralized management system (CMS). 5

6 Top Market Drivers Figure 1 illustrates the top market drivers for the NGFW market for the forecast period Market Driver Market Impact More complex threat landscape Very High None Impact Change During Forecast Ongoing proliferation of high- profile breaches Very High Decreasing Availability of high performance products Very High None Lower total cost of ownership (TCO) compared to multiple products High Increasing Simplified security management through a single platform Medium None Interest in protecting cloud and virtual deployments Medium None A More Complex Threat landscape Figure 1 Market Drivers for the NGFW Market, The threat landscape continues to evolve as tools become easier to use and attackers continue to profit from their attacks. High- profile attacks against retailers such as Target, Inc. and Home Depot are raising awareness of the damage that can be wrought by determined attackers. Advanced attacks, along with the challenges posed by bring your own device (BYOD), make security challenging for organizations of all sizes. Ongoing Proliferation of High- Profile Breaches The steady drumbeat of high- profile breach reports in 2013 and 2014 has little chance of subsiding in the next few years. High- profile attacks have increased information security awareness amongst consumers and are driving spending on newer technology products. While NGFW technology is benefiting from this increased spend, the frustration with many traditional security products is driving some organizations to evaluate other security products, such as breach detection systems (BDS). Availability of High Performance Products One of the key inhibitors of the NGFW market traditionally has been performance. It was difficult to create a unified platform that had the processing power to operate at speeds most enterprises require. While the NGFW is now prevalent in the SMB and branch office, it is only in the last few years that it has proved sufficiently stable for enterprise customers. Today, many vendors offer devices that can perform at well over 10 Gbps. NGFWs will continue to improve performance as 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps interfaces become more common. Lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Compared to Multiple Products Another key driver of the NGFW market is the lower TCO compared to purchasing a variety of products from multiple vendors. Traditionally organizations would purchase at least three devices, often from as many different vendors in order to secure their traffic. This led to various costs, including the support and maintenance costs from multiple vendors, and the significant cost of deploying multiple devices. By moving to an NGFW, organizations significantly reduce the number of devices deployed, and they pay only one support and subscription cost. 6

7 Simplified Security Management through a Single Platform Security products historically have faced challenges integrating data coming from different devices. The single platform approach used by NGFW technology allows NGFWs to normalize data and provide administrators access to security data across diverse functions. The approach minimizes the skill sets needed to manage the security of an organization and is critical for small and medium- sized enterprises that typically lack security staff. Interest in Protecting Cloud and Virtual Deployments There is strong interest in moving data and applications to the cloud. While security remains a key concern in cloud adoption, many organizations are searching for ways to extend existing security architectures into cloud deployments. This has prompted many NGFW vendors to create virtual versions of their products. And more recently, NGFW vendors have begun partnering with and offering dedicated solutions for platform- as- a- service (PaaS) providers. Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure are the most supported platforms. Top Market Inhibitors Figure 2 illustrates the top market inhibitors for the NGFW market for the forecast period Market Inhibitor Market Impact Change During Forecast Market saturation of NGFW products High Increasing Performance and vulnerability concerns High None Changing security priorities within organizations Medium Increasing Difficulty in showing ROI from security Medium None Market Saturation of NGFW Products Figure 2 Market Inhibitors for the NGFW Market, Many enterprises and even small business have switched to NGFWs and are now on a more consistent replacement cycle of three to five years. While NGFW vendors have worked to drive best practices regarding the use of NGFWs for segmentation gateways, many organizations are content with the solutions they have in place, and out- of- cycle purchases are occurring less frequently. Vendors are working quickly to introduce new features in order to drive new purchases, and customer adoption of features such as endpoint security and breach detection will determine whether NGFW vendors continue to post strong growth. Performance and Vulnerability Concerns over Single Vendor Solution Performance has improved significantly for NGFWs but inevitably is affected each time a new feature is enabled. For some applications and enterprises, NGFW performance is still not adequate and there remains a need for dedicated point solutions. Additionally, there is increasing concern that a single vendor platform may introduce more security flaws into a network than a multi- vendor architecture. Even though multiple technologies are enabled, the engines and intelligence all link to a single vendor any attack missed by that vendor will be propagated, regardless of the services that are enabled. Some NGFW vendors are attempting to address this challenge by offering customers technology choices from several third- party vendors. 7

8 Changing Security Priorities within Organizations Even though NGFWs have become table stakes for any organization implementing security, they are not always perceived as the highest priority spend. As more mission- critical assets are accessed via mobile devices, and as more data moves to the cloud, traditional network infrastructure is often outsourced to third- party providers. While this will drive spending at the enterprise and data center levels, it could be detrimental for vendors that traditionally have focused on the SMB segment. Difficulty in Showing ROI from Security Security vendors have long been challenged to prove a return on investment (ROI) from security spending. Over the years, there have been models to justify security spend, but ultimately this spending falls into the same category as insurance protection against a potential loss. While organizations and consumers are better acknowledging the importance of security, it is often an afterthought and likely will be considered a cost to be minimized rather than a revenue generating function. Total Market Size and Growth Forecasts Figures 3 and 4 depict the total market size, annual growth, and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the NGFW market from 2011 to Year NGFW Revenue (US$M) NGFW Growth 2012 $2, $2, % 2014 $3, % 2015 $3, % 2016 $4, % 2017 $5, % 2018 $5, % CAGR 15.3% Figure 3 NGFW Total Market Revenues and Growth Rate, 2012 to 2018 (Base Year 2013) By the close of 2013, the market for NGFW products had reached US$2,865 million. This number is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.3 percent during the forecast period up to US$5,841 million in Although many organizations have transitioned from traditional firewalls to NGFWs, there is still growth potential, particularly for the enterprise and data center segments. 8

9 $6, % Revenue (Millions US$) $4,500 $3,000 $1, % 10.0% 5.0% Growth Rate (%) $ NGFW Revenue NGFW Growth 0.0% Figure 4 NGFW Total Market Revenues and Growth Rate (Graphic Representation), (Base Year 2013) Products and Services Revenue As with the BDS market, NGFW products rely heavily on updates for threat intelligence, antivirus, intrusion prevention system (IPS) signatures, and web protection, and application signatures. Vendors are bundling more services and in some cases, entire product suites, into their offerings. This is shifting revenues away from products and toward services. Figure 5 forecasts the shift in product and services revenue through Year Product (%) Product (US$M) Services (%) Services (US$M) , , , , , , , , , , , , ,692 Figure 5 NGFW Product and Service Breakouts,

10 Total Units Shipped Figure 6 depicts the total number of units shipped during the forecast period. Year Product Revenue (US$M) ASP (US$) ASP Growth Units 2012 $1,386 $16,160 85, $1,593 $16, % 94, $1,750 $17, % 100, $1,884 $18, % 104, $2,003 $18, % 106, $2,088 $19, % 107, $2,150 $20, % 107,303 Figure 6 NGFW Average Selling Price Forecast (Base Year 2013) NSS calculations are based on 94,875 units sold in 2013 at an average selling price (ASP) of US$16,805. Over the course of the forecast period, NSS estimates that the number of units sold will increase to 107,699 before starting to decline, and the ASP will increase to US$20,033. The features and additional functionality included in new products; the heightened focus on enterprise and data center customers; and the number of platform options offered for upsell will contribute to this higher ASP. It is important to keep the horizontal balance of sales in mind when reviewing the industry- wide ASP for NGFW. While many vendors offer products that cost less than US$1,000, the significant increase in mid- sized and large enterprise deals and the availability of products that cost well in excess of US$100,000 are driving the industry average for NGFW higher. Technology Trends NGFWs initially were criticized for being technology laggards. Early solutions aggregated multiple software solutions onto single appliances with little thought for compatibility or adding advanced (new) features. The need for application control changed this, and NGFW platforms suddenly began surpassing many other security products. Some NGFW vendors are leading the market in terms of innovation, adding diverse emerging technologies to existing platforms. Threat Intelligence As NGFWs replace dedicated web and security products as well as protect against application- specific attacks, the need for them to deliver real- time threat intelligence has increased dramatically. Many vendors have increased their threat research to enable their products to deliver more timely defense, and recent NSS tests illustrate the effectiveness of NGFW vendors against many traditional best- of- breed products. The increased cost of maintaining a topflight research team is one component of customer subscriptions. Sandboxing and Breach Detection Technology Sandboxing and breach detection technology are the newest technologies being added by most NGFW vendors, a trend which is driving their adoption into the mid- sized enterprise far more quickly than pure- play alternatives. Most solutions offered by NGFW vendors are cloud- based and can take hours to deliver results, but for many 10

11 smaller organizations, having the ability to flag suspicious files and submit them for analysis even if takes some time to receive the results is advantageous, and being able to include such capabilities as an add- on to their subscriptions is much more cost effective than purchasing a separate, dedicated product suite. Endpoint Protection Managed through NGFW The idea of adding endpoint protection to a network device is not new, and many vendors used this model during the early days of IPS. Over the last couple of years, several acquisitions have confirmed the trend toward integrated protection, from network to the endpoint McAfee s acquisition of Stonesoft; Sophos acquisition of Astaro and CyberRoam; and Palo Alto s acquisition of Cyvera. However, acceptance of this trend requires an organizational shift that many enterprises may not be prepared to embrace. Despite widespread belief in the ineffectiveness of existing endpoint protection suites, it is unclear whether organizations are ready to embrace endpoint protection as delivered by their NGFW vendor either. Vertical Market Trends Given the traditional focus on NGFW technology in smaller organizations, the vertical markets that have been strongest for NGFWs have been markets that were not traditionally security focused. This leads NGFW to have the highest sales in the others category a catchall that includes a wide variety of businesses and state and local governments. Retail traditionally has been the single largest vertical for NGFW owing to the large number of branch offices and locations that most retail organizations have to secure. Figures 7 and 8 illustrate the forecasted revenues and percentages by vertical for the NGFW market. In 2013, retail was the single largest vertical, followed by healthcare and education. Over the next five years, the more traditional security- focused verticals financial services and government will drive increases in NGFW spend. This increase is reflective of the increased acceptance of NGFW for enterprises both in terms of performance and effectiveness. Year Retail (US$M) Healthcare (US$M) Education (US$M) Financial (US$M) Government (US$M) Others (US$M) 2013 $573.1 $257.9 $257.9 $143.3 $143.3 $1, $641.9 $324.3 $337.8 $195.9 $182.4 $1, $706.6 $400.4 $431.8 $259.1 $227.7 $1, $768.8 $488.4 $542.7 $334.7 $280.4 $2, $824.9 $587.7 $670.2 $422.8 $340.3 $2, $876.2 $700.9 $817.8 $525.7 $408.9 $2,511.7 Figure 7 NGFW Vertical Market Forecast by Revenue

12 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Others Government Financial Educahon Healthcare Retail 20% 10% 0% Figure 8 NGFW Vertical Market Forecast by Percentage Horizontal Market Trends The horizontal market trend for the NGFW market is toward enterprise and very large enterprise users. This is a dramatic shift from the traditional SMB customer that has defined the market since its inception. Performance improvements have driven this push toward larger customers. Figures 9 and 10 depict the current and projected states of the NGFW horizontal markets. Year Small Business (<100 users) Medium Sized Business ( users) Enterprise (1,000 4,999 users) Large Enterprise (5,000+ users) 2013 $1,002.9 $859.6 $659.1 $ $1,128.4 $1,013.5 $810.8 $ $1,248.4 $1,177.7 $981.4 $ $1,365.8 $1,356.7 $1,175.8 $ $1,474.5 $1,546.7 $1,392.0 $ $1,577.1 $1,752.4 $1,635.5 $876.2 Figure 9 NGFW Horizontal Forecasts by Revenue

13 The most dramatic horizontal changes in this market are expected to be increased penetration into the large enterprise and data center. While the mid- sized enterprise has embraced NGFW, taking the next step will require significant work by NGFW vendors, and NSS expects that some NGFW vendors will be forced to focus their portfolios on specific segments as opposed to maintaining broad portfolios that attempt to meet the needs of all customers. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Large Enterprise (5,000+ users) Enterprise (1,000 4,999 users) Medium- Sized Business ( users) Small Business (<100 users) 10% 0% Figure 10 NGFW Horizontal Forecast by Percentage Mergers and Acquisitions While the NGFW technology is maturing, the integrated nature of these products is driving the search for emerging features that can be integrated into the platform. NSS expects several acquisitions in the next few years as NGFW vendors look to differentiate their platforms and pursue new revenue streams via unique services. Most customers have completed their initial NGFW installs, and traditional firewall replacements and NGFW vendors will need to diversify in order to drive new sales. Cisco Acquires Sourcefire The 2013 acquisition of Sourcefire by Cisco for nearly US$2.7 billion generally was assumed to be for Sourcefire s IPS technology. While Cisco has quickly driven Sourcefire IPS products into its channel, its September 2014 announcement of integration of Sourcefire services onto the ASA platform indicated that Sourcefire was intended as more than just a replacement IPS platform. Cisco had entered the NGFW space with the ASA X series firewalls, which allowed organizations to add application- aware services, and the addition of FirePOWER services for the ASA products gives customers several services choices for adding NG capabilities to the ASA platform. 13

14 Palo Alto Acquires Morta and Cyvera In January 2014, Palo Alto Networks acquired the startup Morta for an undisclosed amount. The technology was earmarked specifically for integration with the WildFire offering. In March, the vendor acquired endpoint security company Cyvera for US$200 million. Palo Alto s Advanced Endpoint Protection, announced in September 2014, clearly illustrates the trend of NGFW vendors adding product suites outside their core infrastructures in order to build revenue. Sophos Acquires Cyberoam and Mojave Traditionally known as an endpoint security company, Sophos made its first foray into the NGFW space in 2011 with the acquisition of Astaro networks. In 2014, Sophos made two additional acquisitions to bolster its NGFW product line: In February, the vendor acquired Cyberoam, an India- based NGFW vendor that brought both geographic and technical strengths to Sophos; and in October, the vendor acquired Mojave networks, a cloud security provider whose products are expected to improve web filtering and endpoint security through the NGFW products. Vendor Market Share The market share for NGFW has been shifting steadily for the last several years, and NSS expects some shakeup in the market leaders over the next few years. While Juniper Networks maintained its lead in 2013, the vendor s market share has since been declining. Its SRX series is still regarded as a strong brand in many enterprise circles, but increasing competition from vendors such as Fortinet (second place) and Palo Alto Networks has been significantly eroding Juniper s presence in the enterprise. Palo Alto Networks took third place in this market, achieving exemplary growth by focusing squarely on the mid- market and larger enterprises. The market is still highly competitive, with long- term traditional firewall competitors such as Cisco and Check Point remaining fully dedicated to the space, and relative newcomers, Dell and Sophos, making significant inroads. The race to the top is far from over. Figure 11 illustrates the 2013 market share percentages by vendor, combining product and services revenue. 14

15 Cisco/Sourcefire, 5% Others, 8% Juniper Networks, 21% Sophos, 5% WatchGuard, 5% Check Point, 9% Forhnet, 19% Dell SonicWALL, 11% Palo Alto Networks, 17% Figure 11 NGFW Market Share, Product and Service Revenue, Base Year

16 Appendix A: Vendor List NSS is currently tracking the following NGFW vendors: Barracuda Networks gateprotect Kerio Technologies Check Point Hillstone Networks Stormshield Cisco (Sourcefire) HP Palo Alto Networks Clavister Huawei Sophos/Cyberoam Dell Security Intel Security WatchGuard Fortinet Juniper Networks 16

17 Reading List Next Generation Firewall Test Methodology v5.4, NSS Labs generation- firewall- test- methodology- v54 Market Analysis: 2013 Intrusion Prevention Systems, NSS Labs analysis- intrusion- prevention- systems Market Analysis: 2013 Breach Detection Systems, NSS Labs analysis- breach- detection- systems 17

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